We are one step closer to the Holy Grail, and with losses to Baylor and Minnesota, now left with just 3 undefeated teams in college football. It feels like we are pretty close to these unbeaten teams being locks to make the College Football Playoff barring a massive upset down the stretch, but of course we’ll explore how maybe that’s not the case.
This Week’s Winner: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
Hurts nearly Golson’d away a primetime road game with some disastrous fumbles as the Sooners fell behind in the first half against Baylor. However, a second half for the ages–and 411 total yards from Hurts–brought Oklahoma back for the win and keeps the door opened just a bit to a playoff bid as they likely face Baylor again in a few weeks to determine the league champion.
This Week’s Loser: Alabama Crimson Tide
You wouldn’t expect the Tide here after cruising against Mississippi State but of course the Tua injury colors things drastically. Alabama still needs a lot of help in the Big 12 and Pac-12 especially to have a chance at the playoffs and even if they make it past Auburn without Tua do they have a chance for another title anyway? This could be one of the darkest 12-1 season in recent memory for a blue-blood power program.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | 10-0 | 58-37 Win vs. Ole Miss |
| 2 | Ohio State | 10-0 | 56-21 Win vs. Rutgers |
| 3 | Clemson (+1) | 11-0 | 52-3 Win vs. Wake Forest |
| 4 | Georgia (+1) | 9-1 | 21-14 Win vs. Auburn |
| 5 | Alabama (-1) | 9-1 | 38-7 Win vs. Miss State |
| 6 | Oregon (+1) | 9-1 | 34-6 Win vs. Arizona |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 9-1 | 34-31 Win vs. Baylor |
| 8 | Penn State (+1) | 9-1 | 34-27 Win vs. Indiana |
| 9 | Utah (+1) | 9-1 | 49-3 Win vs. UCLA |
| 10 | Florida (+2) | 9-2 | 23-6 Win vs. Missouri |
| 11 | Minnesota (-3) | 9-1 | 23-19 Loss vs. Iowa |
| 12 | Baylor (-1) | 9-1 | 34-31 Loss vs. Oklahoma |
| 13 | Wisconsin (+1) | 8-2 | 37-21 Win vs. Nebraska |
| 14 | Michigan (+1) | 8-2 | 44-10 Win vs. Michigan State |
| 15 | Notre Dame (+1) | 8-2 | 52-20 Win vs. Navy |
| 16 | Auburn (-3) | 7-3 | 21-14 Loss vs. Georgia |
| 17 | Memphis | 9-1 | 45-27 Win vs. Houston |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 9-1 | 20-17 Win vs. USF |
| 19 | Boise State | 9-1 | 42-9 Win vs. New Mexico |
| 20 | Iowa (NR) | 7-3 | 23-19 Win vs. Minnesota |
OUT: SMU
IN: Iowa
So, I thought the ESPN College Football Playoff show on Tuesday night had a really spicy (if impractical) what-if scenario that I’m going to expand upon below:
1) Clemson wins out.
2) LSU & Georgia win out until the SEC Championship which the Dawgs win.
3) Ohio State and Minnesota win out until the Big Ten Championship which the Gophers win.
4) Oklahoma and Baylor win out until the Big 12 Championship which the Sooners win.
5) Oregon and Utah win out until the Pac-12 Championship which the Ducks win.
Yeah, this is the nightmare scenario for the committee which would feature 6 teams with one-loss and two fairly large championship game upsets in what many would consider the top conferences in the country.
What do you do?
My top four would be: Clemson, Georgia, Minnesota, LSU
Oregon is the easiest one to keep out. They likely have USC and Washington (4 losses minimum for both) as their top wins until defeating Utah and that’s not going to cut it in this scenario.
Oklahoma would feel begrudged, I’m sure. But they’d have top wins over at minimum 3-loss Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Texas (both with 4 losses minimum), two wins over Baylor (they better hope the Bears don’t lose to Texas), with a defeat to an at minimum 4-loss Kansas State team. Most years this is a fine resume and would get you in, but not in 2019.
There would be riots in Columbus, no doubt. They will have the same wins over Wisconsin and Penn State as Minnesota (presumably by a larger margins, too) with an additional quality win over 3-loss Michigan, a blowout win over maybe the country’s top G5 team in Cincinnati, plus a better loss! Objectively their resume is better than Minnesota (whose 4th best win would be…Illinois?) but OSU would’ve just lost to the Gophers and there’s just no way the committee leaves out the Big Ten champion when that recency bias occurred days prior.
The seeding in this scenario would be fascinating.
LSU probably deserves to be higher than 4th above Minnesota but then you don’t want to repeat the SEC Title Game. It would also suck for the Tigers to be considered the “best” team right up until conference title week then get paired with, talent-wise, their toughest opponent in the semi-finals.
Week 13 Games to Watch
Penn State (+18.5) at Ohio State – The Buckeyes now embark on what could be a run for the ages. Should they go on to win the National Championship this is the first of FIVE straight Top 12-ish matchups they’d need to win in a row. I like them a lot in this game but not quite pushing 20 points, goodness that’s a lot. Buckeyes 34-19.
Texas A&M (+13.5) at Georgia – Oh, hello there Aggies who haven’t been in the national spotlight it feels like since that Clemson game in September. This game means less for Georgia as they’ve already clinched the SEC East. Although, they still have aspirations to make the playoff and win a natty. It’s possible there’s some major let down factor here. Bulldogs 27-24.
Texas (+5.5) at Baylor – This is a fascinating game. Can Baylor bounce back from a crushing collapse last week? Are we really going to see 5-loss Texas before the regular season is over? Oklahoma really needs Baylor to take this one which means I’m sure the Horns are going to pull the upset. Longhorns 39-35.
SMU (+3.5) at Navy – A bit of a small surprise to see the Middies favored here? Navy being ranked lasted all of one week and unfortunately they are catching SMU coming off a bye with a ton of rest. I like the SMU offense to do a lot of damage and hang on. Mustangs 42-35.
Pitt (+4) at Virginia Tech – It’s possible, although not yet probable, that this game determines the ACC Coastal division and maybe an Orange Bowl bid. The Hokies have quietly been playing really well for almost 2 months and I like them here at home. Hokies 28-21.
Boise State (-8) at Utah State – This is Boise State’s last big test for the regular season and would wrap up their division which has been surprisingly competitive this year. A win also keeps Boise’s hopes alive for a major bowl bid. They may need help from the AAC but the dream is still alive. I bet this one is super close, though. Broncos 32-29.
I think you’re right in that scenario it would be Clemson, UGA, LSU and then one of Minn/Oregon/Oklahoma. Minnesota would win the resume test, but I feel like given how the committee operates a brand name in Oklahoma with that offense would be tough to deny as one of the mythical “four best teams” that they seek out.