A huge week of betting from week 10 puts me in better spirits after a rough 9th week of football. On the field we continue to see a bunch of ranked teams losing which has opened the door to many unfamiliar guests in our rankings. We’ve moved into the gut-check time that is November!
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
|1||Alabama||9-0||29-0 W vs. LSU|
|2||Clemson||9-0||77-16 W vs. Louisville|
|3||Notre Dame||9-0||31-21 W vs. Northwestern|
|4||Michigan (+2)||8-1||42-7 W vs. Penn State|
|5||Georgia||8-1||34-17 W vs. Kentucky|
|6||Oklahoma (+2)||8-1||51-46 W vs. Texas Tech|
|7||UCF||8-0||52-40 W vs. Temple|
|8||West Virginia (+3)||7-1||42-41 W vs. Texas|
|9||Washington State||8-1||19-13 W vs. California|
|10||Ohio State||8-1||36-31 W vs. Nebraska|
|11||LSU (-7)||7-2||29-0 W vs. Alabama|
|12||Syracuse (NR)||7-2||41-24 W vs. Wake Forest|
|13||Boston College (NR)||7-2||31-21 W vs. Virginia Tech|
|14||Fresno State (+3)||8-1||48-3 W vs. UNLV|
|15||Kentucky (-3)||7-2||34-17 L vs. Georgia|
|16||Utah State (NR)||8-1||56-17 W vs. Hawaii|
|17||Washington (NR)||7-3||27-23 W vs. Stanford|
|18||Michigan State||6-3||24-3 W vs. Maryland|
|19||Penn State (-5)||6-3||42-7 L vs. Michigan|
|20||Iowa State (NR)||5-3||27-3 W vs. Kansas|
Out: Florida, Utah, Houston, Georgia Southern, Texas
In: Syracuse, Boston College, Utah State, Washington, Iowa State
Yeah, once you get to No. 12 it’s a free-for-all and anyone’s personal preferences I’m afraid. We know Syracuse and Boston College legitimately aren’t that good and yet someone has to fill these spots. We can’t have Kentucky losing pretty badly and literally staying in the same ranking the next week.
The SEC Title Game is now officially set as Alabama will face Georgia in a re-match of last year’s National Championship.
For the playoffs, we appear to have 9 teams remaining to fill 4 spots: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Washington State, and Ohio State.
The Big 12 has to be sweating because A) One of their 1-loss teams seem to be on the outside looking in unless there’s a big shake up and B) Both OU and WVU are on track to play each other in the regular season finale only to turn around and play each other again in the league title game. I’d hate to see them split those games, but imagine how hard the conferences officials will be lobbying for the regular season game winner. The loser of that first game is getting zero calls in the title game.
Bowl Game Projections
Cotton: Alabama vs. Michigan
Orange: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Sugar: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Ohio State vs. Washington State
Peach: UCF vs. LSU
Fiesta: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
In these latest projections, Michigan replaces LSU in the national semi-final against Alabama. LSU would fall back to the Peach Bowl replacing Ohio State who moves up to the Big Ten representative in the Rose Bowl. The best part is Syracuse replacing Kentucky in the Fiesta Bowl.
These feel like the overwhelming odds for the playoffs, absent some major developments like Wazzu winning out or Clemson losing:
SEC, Clemson, Notre Dame, B1G
SEC, Clemson, B1G, Big 12
Week 11 Games to Watch
Fresno State (-3) at Boise State – This could be the last important game in the Mountain West. If the Bulldogs win it virtually seals a showdown with Utah State that could be between two top 15 teams. If Boise State wins well things get a whole lot more interesting. Bulldogs win 42-40.
Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State – Something is broken with Michigan State’s offense. The Ohio State offense isn’t running the ball like they normally do but can still put up points. I don’t think this will be close. Buckeyes win 38-13.
Mississippi State (+24) at Alabama – At times the Mississippi State’s looked decent this year with a great offense. You can’t say the same when they’ve played their 3 ranked opponents this year with a combined 16(!!) points and all losses. This Alabama team is going to feast. Tide win 47-9.
Oklahoma State (+20) at Oklahoma – Bedlam is only interesting this weekend insofar as the Cowboys can play spoiler in a rivalry game. It’s quietly been a very bad year for Okie State (losses in 4 of their last 6) but can you really trust Oklahoma’s defense to bury another opponent with a decent offense? Sooners win 47-35.
*Game of the Week* Clemson (-20) at Boston College – The best win for Boston College might be Temple and even though the Eagles have lost twice in the past 6 weeks they find themselves surging up the polls by default. Looking at this spread this should be a bit of a laugh for Clemson. However, I expect some college football weirdness. Tigers win 29-23.
6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS
48-26 SU, 35-39 ATS