A huge week of betting from week 10 puts me in better spirits after a rough 9th week of football. On the field we continue to see a bunch of ranked teams losing which has opened the door to many unfamiliar guests in our rankings. We’ve moved into the gut-check time that is November!
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 9-0 | 29-0 W vs. LSU |
| 2 | Clemson | 9-0 | 77-16 W vs. Louisville |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 9-0 | 31-21 W vs. Northwestern |
| 4 | Michigan (+2) | 8-1 | 42-7 W vs. Penn State |
| 5 | Georgia | 8-1 | 34-17 W vs. Kentucky |
| 6 | Oklahoma (+2) | 8-1 | 51-46 W vs. Texas Tech |
| 7 | UCF | 8-0 | 52-40 W vs. Temple |
| 8 | West Virginia (+3) | 7-1 | 42-41 W vs. Texas |
| 9 | Washington State | 8-1 | 19-13 W vs. California |
| 10 | Ohio State | 8-1 | 36-31 W vs. Nebraska |
| 11 | LSU (-7) | 7-2 | 29-0 W vs. Alabama |
| 12 | Syracuse (NR) | 7-2 | 41-24 W vs. Wake Forest |
| 13 | Boston College (NR) | 7-2 | 31-21 W vs. Virginia Tech |
| 14 | Fresno State (+3) | 8-1 | 48-3 W vs. UNLV |
| 15 | Kentucky (-3) | 7-2 | 34-17 L vs. Georgia |
| 16 | Utah State (NR) | 8-1 | 56-17 W vs. Hawaii |
| 17 | Washington (NR) | 7-3 | 27-23 W vs. Stanford |
| 18 | Michigan State | 6-3 | 24-3 W vs. Maryland |
| 19 | Penn State (-5) | 6-3 | 42-7 L vs. Michigan |
| 20 | Iowa State (NR) | 5-3 | 27-3 W vs. Kansas |
Out: Florida, Utah, Houston, Georgia Southern, Texas
In: Syracuse, Boston College, Utah State, Washington, Iowa State
Yeah, once you get to No. 12 it’s a free-for-all and anyone’s personal preferences I’m afraid. We know Syracuse and Boston College legitimately aren’t that good and yet someone has to fill these spots. We can’t have Kentucky losing pretty badly and literally staying in the same ranking the next week.
The SEC Title Game is now officially set as Alabama will face Georgia in a re-match of last year’s National Championship.
For the playoffs, we appear to have 9 teams remaining to fill 4 spots: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Washington State, and Ohio State.
The Big 12 has to be sweating because A) One of their 1-loss teams seem to be on the outside looking in unless there’s a big shake up and B) Both OU and WVU are on track to play each other in the regular season finale only to turn around and play each other again in the league title game. I’d hate to see them split those games, but imagine how hard the conferences officials will be lobbying for the regular season game winner. The loser of that first game is getting zero calls in the title game.
Bowl Game Projections
Cotton: Alabama vs. Michigan
Orange: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Sugar: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Ohio State vs. Washington State
Peach: UCF vs. LSU
Fiesta: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
In these latest projections, Michigan replaces LSU in the national semi-final against Alabama. LSU would fall back to the Peach Bowl replacing Ohio State who moves up to the Big Ten representative in the Rose Bowl. The best part is Syracuse replacing Kentucky in the Fiesta Bowl.
These feel like the overwhelming odds for the playoffs, absent some major developments like Wazzu winning out or Clemson losing:
SEC, Clemson, Notre Dame, B1G
SEC, Clemson, B1G, Big 12
Week 11 Games to Watch
Fresno State (-3) at Boise State – This could be the last important game in the Mountain West. If the Bulldogs win it virtually seals a showdown with Utah State that could be between two top 15 teams. If Boise State wins well things get a whole lot more interesting. Bulldogs win 42-40.
Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State – Something is broken with Michigan State’s offense. The Ohio State offense isn’t running the ball like they normally do but can still put up points. I don’t think this will be close. Buckeyes win 38-13.
Mississippi State (+24) at Alabama – At times the Mississippi State’s looked decent this year with a great offense. You can’t say the same when they’ve played their 3 ranked opponents this year with a combined 16(!!) points and all losses. This Alabama team is going to feast. Tide win 47-9.
Oklahoma State (+20) at Oklahoma – Bedlam is only interesting this weekend insofar as the Cowboys can play spoiler in a rivalry game. It’s quietly been a very bad year for Okie State (losses in 4 of their last 6) but can you really trust Oklahoma’s defense to bury another opponent with a decent offense? Sooners win 47-35.
*Game of the Week* Clemson (-20) at Boston College – The best win for Boston College might be Temple and even though the Eagles have lost twice in the past 6 weeks they find themselves surging up the polls by default. Looking at this spread this should be a bit of a laugh for Clemson. However, I expect some college football weirdness. Tigers win 29-23.
Last Week:
6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS
Season:
48-26 SU, 35-39 ATS
Per Pete Sampson’s, Ian Book was injured against NW – possibly a kidney contusion – and Brandon Wimbush is your starting QB for FSU.
Looking at the various messages on this, it would appear it’s a rib, and he could be back for ‘Cuse.
Poor Eric, probably had his preview ready to post and now he needs to rewrite it.
This makes BK’s reply to Lou Somogyi in Tuesday’s presser more meaningful: Lou was pushing him on how BW reacted to being benched, and in between judicious comments on that, BK said and I think reiterated in a very “intentional” manner that not only has BW been being a superb teammate, but that he is a play away and so has been working hard the last six weeks to be a better quarterback…
So here we go with fervent hopes that this is the case! Oof oof oof…
My own reaction reflected the country I live in: “Merde, ca change tout”
Just a quick re-write of one section for me. As per usual, I was anticipating a closer game anyway.
Book’s injury raises two questions for me:
1. What changes to the offense can we expect (if there’s even time for that)?
2. Do we run Wimbush knowing Phil is now the back up?
To answer #2 – Yes, because the other option is “throwing” with BW
Exactly. We run Wimbush until he gets hurt. Then hand it to Dexter.
In all seriousness, Wimbush should run it 20-25 times and throw deep balls (that way if its intercepted it may be close to being like a punt).
20+ points probably wins this relatively easily for us.
Keep pounding and let the snow and temperatures do the work.
On #1: you can expect all the short throws to be incomplete, and a lot more 3&outs.
Tier one wins – over teams in the CFP or S&P+ top 25. Tier 2 wins – over teams at least .500 and in the S&P+ top 60.
1. Alabama – Three tier one wins (LSU, Texas A&M, and Missouri), one tier two win (Ole Miss)
2. Clemson – Two tier one wins (Texas A&M, Syracuse, and NC State), zero tier two wins
3. Notre Dame – One tier one win (Michigan), one tier two win (Stanford)
4. Georgia – Lost at LSU, three tier one wins (Missouri, Kentucky, and Florida), one tier two win (South Carolina)
5. Michigan – Lost at Notre Dame, three tier one wins (Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State), zero tier two wins
6. Washington State – Lost at USC, one tier one wins (Utah), two tier two wins (Stanford and Oregon)
7. Oklahoma – Lost vs Texas, one tier one win (Iowa State), one tier two win (Texas Tech)
8. West Virginia – Lost at Iowa State, one tier one win (Texas), one tier two win (Texas Tech)
9. UCF – Zero tier one wins, two tier two wins (Memphis and Temple)
10. Ohio State – Lost at Purdue, one tier one win (Penn State), zero tier two wins
Ten teams. Four weeks. Three guaranteed games between them, Oklahoma @ West Virginia on 11/23, Michigan @ Ohio State on 11/24, and Georgia vs Alabama on 12/1.
Half the remaining teams play a quality opponent this weekend, Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.
Yikes. This really demonstrates how much our schedule has gone in the tank. Who would’ve predicted that a schedule featuring Michigan, USC, FSU, Stanford, and VT would be the weakest in the top 10 and that Syracuse would be our second best opponent?