Mack Brown was so close to bringing utter chaos to the college football world on Saturday. Instead of kicking the extra point late against Clemson, the Tar Heels attempted a 2-point conversion for the win that sadly did not work. Alas, back to the drawing board for the big upsets that mark each season in this big, dumb, beautiful sport.
This Week’s Biggest Winner: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Imagine the wealth of talent on your team when you go for 11 receptions, 274 yards, and 5 touchdowns in one game and you aren’t even the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner. Tua is also on pace for 75 total touchdowns if Alabama makes it to the National Championship.
This Week’s Biggest Loser: Scott Frost, Head Coach, Nebraska
I buckled to the peer pressure and placed Nebraska 16th in the 18S pre-season Top 20 poll. That is not aging well. It seems we expected far too much from the Huskers and didn’t really expect Wisconsin to be as good as they seem. Also, Iowa and even Minnesota remain undefeated and will challenge for the division. Long story short, Scott Frost could be 6-6 or 7-5 this season which is improvement from his first year in Lincoln and not really close to entering the Big Ten Championship.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama (+1) | 5-0 | 59-31 Win vs. Ole Miss |
| 2 | Clemson (-1) | 5-0 | 21-20 Win vs. North Carolina |
| 3 | LSU | 4-0 | BYE |
| 4 | Georgia | 4-0 | BYE |
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-0 | 48-7 Win vs. Nebraska |
| 6 | Oklahoma (+1) | 4-0 | 55-16 Win vs. Texas Tech |
| 7 | Auburn (+1) | 5-0 | 56-23 Win vs. Miss State |
| 8 | Wisconsin (-2) | 4-0 | 24-15 Win vs. Northwestern |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 3-1 | 35-20 Win vs. Virginia |
| 10 | Texas | 3-1 | BYE |
| 11 | Florida | 5-0 | 38-0 Win vs. Towson |
| 12 | Penn State | 4-0 | 59-0 Win vs. Maryland |
| 13 | Oregon (+1) | 4-0 | BYE |
| 14 | Iowa (+1) | 4-0 | 48-3 Win vs. Mid Tennessee |
| 15 | Washington (+3) | 4-1 | 28-14 Win vs. USC |
| 16 | Boise State (+1) | 4-0 | BYE |
| 17 | Oklahoma State (NR) | 4-1 | 26-13 Win vs. Kansas State |
| 18 | Virginia (-5) | 4-1 | 35-20 Loss vs. Notre Dame |
| 19 | Arizona State (NR) | 4-1 | 24-17 Win vs. California |
| 20 | Utah (NR) | 4-1 | 38-13 Win vs. Washington State |
OUT: California, Kansas State, USC
IN: Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Utah
We enjoyed three close games for Top 10 teams this weekend which added some zest to things. However, we’re still waiting for a big shake up at the top after North Carolina came oh so close.
Among the current 18S Top 12 teams we still have 8 games to be played between these programs just in the regular season, including one such game coming up this weekend.
It doesn’t feel like it but Washington’s victory this past Saturday is only USC’s first conference loss. With the amount of ups and downs the Trojans have gone through already this season it feels like they are much further behind in the league than reality.
We see Oklahoma State come zooming into the rankings beating previously Top 20 ranked Kansas State. The same for Arizona State who is making their second appearance of the season following a win over previously ranked and undefeated California.
I don’t want to say it but is the Pac-12 shaping up to be a lot of fun this year?
Week 6 Games to Watch
UCF (-4) at Cincinnati – Imagine UCF losing their Heisman-level starter, then the backup, and you’re Brandon Wimbush now benched and moved to receiver because a true freshman was handed the keys. Ouch. Anyway, this game likely decides the AAC East division. I like UCF coming off a loss in a close one. Knights 34-31.
Utah State (+28) at LSU – Most people don’t know Utah State is the 5th best Group of 5 program right now according to the latest SP+ rankings. They also have a very good defense. How about we see just a little bit of doubt creep into a dominant season so far for LSU? Tigers 38-23.
Iowa (+3.5) at Michigan – This line has swung hard in Iowa’s favor in recent days. Who knows what is going on with the Michigan quarterback situation but I will say I think Iowa is really underrated with senior Nate Stanley under center. I bet he offers stability in this game in a way Michigan cannot. Hawkeyes 24-21.
TCU (+3.5) at Iowa State – Future superstar head coach Matt Campbell needs to be careful. He’s lost 2 out of the last 3 and is in danger of falling behind in the Big 12 with an 0-2 start. I think he gets this one at home, though. Cyclones 40-34.
Auburn (-3) at Florida – Auburn has quietly been really good this year and that’s evident in them being road favorites in the Swamp. Conversely, the Gators seem to have been getting by mostly on weaker competition and I’m betting their lack of quarterback play dooms them this weekend. Tigers 37-17.
Michigan State (+20) at Ohio State – Are we expecting OSU to suffer a big, dumb loss this season? There’s no way Michigan State can pull that off in Columbus, though. Predicting that would be reckless. Buckeyes 40-18.
California (+18) at Oregon – Just when people were starting to get on the Cal bandwagon they lost to Arizona State. I bet the Bears remain a really solid team that scare the crap out of Pac-12 most weeks but aren’t up for sticking around in the Top 20 rankings. Ducks 33-24.
4-8 with their best win being a 9-6 victory over a Michigan State team that finished 7-6. That is the team that Scott Frost brought into 2019. I can’t ever remember a more confusing preseason ranking than that one.
If Clemson somehow misses the playoff do they end up in the orange bowl? Are we destined for a repeat of 2015 where we get a New Years 6 bowl and somehow draw a super talented defending national champs team. That would kind of suck
Could definitely see a ND/Clemson Orange bowl if Clemson loses a game and enough other teams (SEC, tOSU, Oklahoma) don’t. If it comes down to a 1 loss non-SEC champ team or a 1 loss ACC champ Clemson for that 4th spot in the playoffs, who knows. You’d think they give the reigning champs the benefit of the doubt, but the ACC is pretty awful and that hypothetical Clemson loss might look pretty rough.
The most paths out there seem to be ND vs. the G5 team in the Cotton Bowl, though, at least at this point. Looks pretty popular in the media to just shoehorn ND and the G5 in a game and move on.
That kinda seems more to lose than win though, Notre Dame beats a Boise State/UCF, big whoop, no one is going to give a lot of credit. But lose to them and it’s a debacle. It’s just me and maybe a NY6 win is a NY6 win, but I’d be more intrigued to see Notre Dame go to the Gator Bowl and compete with a Texas A&M or some other pretty good SEC team then play a non-marquee opponent.
https://twitter.com/SavedNDAClick/status/1179482813722218497
We’re much more likely to beat Boise State than Clemson and end all of the major bowl drought stories that didn’t go away when we beat LSU twice recently, once on New Years Day. If you offered me 12-1 with a NY6 win today I’m not bickering over any of the specifics.
Yeah, for sure. 12-1 with a NY6 win is not drawing any complaints at all from me, definitely the best case scenario at this point. I was just spitballin’ mainly about what kind of game to watch. I’d much rather just personally see ND beat a Florida/LSU/Texas A&M type in the Gator Bowl than beat a UCF in the Cotton Bowl. No doubt about it, Clemson in the Orange would be about a worst case scenario* because that’s only going to extend the losing streak of big games.
(*as worst case as going 11-2 in a season could be, that is. A champagne problem, to be sure)
What’s a better/worse 11-2 scenario: losing to Michigan and beating Boise State, or winning out and losing by 2 TDs+ in the playoff? Non-rhetorical question; I could see arguments either way.
Both options stink, but making the playoffs is good and losing to Michigan is bad, so I gotta go with losing in the playoffs.
Your playoff scenario seems way too reminiscent of last year and only would only go to reinforce what I think we all know — there’s a shelf of like 6 really, really elite teams that ND can’t beat right now and might get embarrassed.
So I guess I’d go with at least winning a NY6 game. It adds something new to the equation and while it might not have a lot of true value, it at least psychologically represents some step forward to finally pick up a win again in a major New Year’s Day game (even if it’s not that impressive to me to defeat a G5 team).
…Then again, not many program have even made the playoffs, let alone make it two years in a row. Plus not losing to Michigan is very enticing.. So I guess there’s at least some pride in being able to tout 23-3 in the last 2 years and 2 playoff appearances, even if those really only show how much further there is to go. Maybe ND would stop “Clemsoning” and win the big games…Or get a recruiting boost if more perceive them as legit playoff team.
So yeah, I’m conflicted too. Pretty even hypothetical.
Spinning a tangent off that… If Clemson somehow misses the playoff, it’ll almost certainly be because they lost the ACC title game. The odds right now are very, very strongly in favor of that imaginary loss coming at the hands of Virginia. The rest of Virginia’s schedule before that game isn’t very frightening; in fact, if they get past Miami on the road this week, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll win out from there.
So, here’s the question: Would a 12-1 ACC champ Virginia get into the playoff over an 11-1 Notre Dame that hammered them? I suspect the answer is yes. Consider:
Virginia’s resume: Conference title; wins over top 5 Clemson, possibly-ranked FSU, Duke; loss to top 5-10 ND
Notre Dame’s resume: No conference title; wins over top 5-10 Virginia, possibly-ranked USC, Michigan, Duke; loss to top 5-ish Georgia
This is pretty much the same discussion we had last year about Michigan before their wheels came off. I firmly believe that if they had beaten Ohio State and then won the Big Ten title they would’ve been in the playoff over us. I think Virginia will be ahead of us this year if we both win out, whether they make the playoff or not. Beating Clemson will be awfully hard for the committee to ignore.
Why would beating Clemson be harder to ignore than beating the team that beat Clemson? For as soft as our schedule is this year, Virginia’s is much worse, and we would have the head to head win.
And that was a solid beating. No question who the better team was.
I watched the UCF game Wimbush started was back in week 1, he just couldn’t run their offense very well. His inaccuracy on the short “easy” RPO throws got them off schedule and the stuff that should be automatic just isn’t, unfortunately. It’s a shame for him, but certainly no surprise after seeing much of the same at Notre Dame. I don’t know if anyone but service academies run the option offense anymore now that GT dropped it but it’s almost like that’s the only type of offense where he would be a viable QB.
It’s super unfortunate that his career has petered out, but the brutal truth is that you just can’t play if you can’t throw the ball.
Just an idea — instead of listing the result of last week’s game for each team, what about listing key wins / losses instead? Including the most recent outcome gives the list an old-school feel of “they lost last week, so that’s an automatic 5 spot drop…” Listing key wins/losses would help to justify the placement of one team ahead of another.
Holy cripes… The Kick Six loss to Auburn was Alabama’s last regular season game in 2013. Since then, they’ve gone 62-3 in the regular season. I mean, I knew they’ve been dominant, but… Three regular season losses in 5+ seasons. Wow.
Is that good?
Just checked with Frank Leahy, he says it’s OK.