We are mere hours away from the start of the 2019 college football season as week 0 kicks off on Saturday with a matchup between a pair of Florida programs. Therefore, it’s time to unveil the pre-season 18 Stripes Top 20 poll. But first, let’s take a look back at my pre-season rankings from a year ago.
2018 PredictionsÂ
(Final AP ranking)
1 Alabama (2)
2 Clemson (1)
3 Georgia (8)
4 Stanford (27)
5 Ohio State (3)
6 Wisconsin (39)
7 Oklahoma (4)
8 Miami (NR)
9 Auburn (32)
10 Washington (13)
11 Michigan State (NR)
12 Michigan (14)
13 UCF (11)
14 USC (NR)
15 Notre Dame (5)
16 Florida State (NR)
17 TCU (NR)
18 Penn State (17)
19 FAU (NR)
20 West Virginia (20)
Remember, my rankings are based on where I think teams will finish at the end of the year. As such, I whiffed big time on Miami, Michigan State, USC, Florida State, TCU, and FAU who went a combined 36-39. Additionally, Stanford, Wisconsin, and Auburn combined to go a decent but ultimately mediocre 25-14.
Teams that I really slept on with their respective AP rankings by the end of the year included:
LSU (6), Florida (7), Texas (9), Washington State (10), Kentucky (12), Syracuse (15) Texas A&M (16), Fresno State (18), and Army (19). Obviously, we can throw Notre Dame in there too as the 2018 team finished 10 spots higher than I predicted. Let’s hope I am sleeping on the Irish yet again!
18 Stripes Pre-season Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 0-0 | N/A |
| 2 | Clemson | 0-0 | N/A |
| 3 | Georgia | 0-0 | N/A |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0-0 | N/A |
| 5 | Ohio State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 6 | Oregon | 0-0 | N/A |
| 7 | Texas | 0-0 | N/A |
| 8 | Florida | 0-0 | N/A |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | N/A |
| 10 | Washington | 0-0 | N/A |
| 11 | Michigan | 0-0 | N/A |
| 12 | LSU | 0-0 | N/A |
| 13 | Virginia | 0-0 | N/A |
| 14 | Stanford | 0-0 | N/A |
| 15 | Iowa State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 16 | Nebraska | 0-0 | N/A |
| 17 | Utah | 0-0 | N/A |
| 18 | Penn State | 0-0 | N/A |
| 19 | Army | 0-0 | N/A |
| 20 | Virginia Tech | 0-0 | N/A |
This is basically all pulled from my conference previews and predicted records. Technically, I didn’t factor in the post-season but I’m not sure that would shake up my rankings very much anyway. The teams not covered in those previews would be the Irish (9th, same as the AP and Coaches Polls) and Army (19th) with the Black Knights being the only team outside the Power 5 conferences included. Even if Army cannot beat Michigan (please God just this one favor for UM to falter) the Black Knights have a very good shot at repeating last year’s 11-2 record–and maybe even better.
Teams I feel great about meeting these rankings: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Virginia, Iowa State
Teams I don’t feel great about meeting these rankings: Ohio State, Oregon, Florida, Stanford, Nebraska
Here are a handful of teams the AP has in the top 20 and 18 Stripes kept out of our pre-season poll:
Texas A&M (12th) – SEC West, plus Georgia, South Carolina, and Clemson on the schedule. It’s brutal.
Auburn (16th) – I’m sure Bo Nix will do his thing in due time but a true freshman quarterback in the SEC sounds like the Tigers will need some patience.
UCF (17th) – Their top two quarterbacks are injured and Brandon Wimbush has won the job. The margin of error is small, a pair of Power 5 opponents (Stanford, Pitt) are faced in back-to-back weeks, and this will be a sneaky tough schedule overall for UCF standards.
Michigan State (18th) – I have a hard time explaining this one.
Games to Watch
Miami (+7.5) at Florida [Camping World Stadium, Orlando]
Week 0 has arrived as the Gators and Hurricanes clash this Saturday at 7:00 PM Eastern on ESPN. It’s been quite the off-season in Miami where Mark Richt abruptly retired and they frantically recalled defensive coordinator Manny Diaz who was in the process of being hired as the head coach at Temple. Many thought Ohio State transfer Tate Martell would win the QB job but the Canes are turning to redshirt freshman Jarren Williams to pick up his first career start against Florida.
The Gators are the much stronger program as made obvious by their ranking and solid line as the favorites. They’ve also gone through a really strange off-season that’s seen their 2019 recruiting class implode due to disqualifications. However, that is something that is more of a concern for down the road and not Saturday evening. Florida should be a step or two above their in-state rivals.
These programs also just signed on for a home-and-home series in 2024-25 ahead of their first meeting since 2013. That should inject some fun rivalry bad blood into things tomorrow night. With the eyes of the whole country on these teams tomorrow night I’m expecting a really tight game and Florida’s defense eventually forcing too many mistakes from a quarterback making his first start. Gators 27-17.
So I presume your prediction on ND is 10-2 with 4 games against top 14 opponents. Seems like they’d finish higher than 9th if that’s how the season plays out.
And fwiw, if you offered me 10-2 with a favorable bowl match up, I’d take it right now
Agree, it’s hard for ND to finish #9 overall. That needs to be some pretty favorable 10-3 scenario (maybe like 10-2 where we lose to Bama/Clemson/UGA close in a non-playoff bowl) or an 11-2 where we get absolutely annihilated in the bowl game. I’m not sure which of those two would be better from a program/fan mental health perspective, though objectively they’d be pretty good seasons all things considered.
#9 last year was 10-4 Texas. #8 was the Georgia team they beat in the Sugar Bowl. Doesn’t seem inconceivable that ND could be right there heading into bowl season.
I have predicted 9-3, FWIW.
It’s worth a push at most books
I’m selling Texas hard relative to their rankings. Advanced stats projections really don’t like them, and I don’t think Ehlinger is so good that he can singlehandedly drag the program to an 11-1ish season.
I didn’t realize Texas only returns 8 starters. That’s gonna be tough; Big 12 has a lot of teams that can put up points in a hurry.
I’ve been high on Oregon, mostly because of Herbert and that Pac-12 schedule. But the more I’ve been thinking about it, the more I’m questioning them. They finished 41st in S&P+ last year. They only beat 1 good team, Washington (who, as I will always point out, is not allowed to beat more than 1 good team per year). They got absolutely smoked by Arizona. The more I think about it, the more likely it seems that they will finish outside of the top 20 than inside of the top 10.
Also, Virginia went 6-5 last year against teams that weren’t FCS or in their first year in FBS. 8-5 overall, with wins over:
Richmond (FCS)
Liberty (1st year FBS)
Lousiville (3rd worst P5 team per S&P+)
UNC (5th worst P5 team per S&P+)
Now, they didn’t get blown out at all (although that’s less impressive when your losses include IU, NC State, and Georgia Tech). For my money, I think Virginia (and maybe Nebraska) will be the team that we will look back on next year and say “huh, why did anyone expect them to be good.”
Edit: also, screw UVA for playing a schedule this year that includes William & Mary, Old Dominion, and Liberty as it’s voluntary non-conference games.
Believe me I get it. Every year I hate ranking anyone once you get to 10 or so because there are so many questions about how good those teams really are. End of the day, someone has to be in those rankings!
Oh completely agree, and you’re not the only person who thinks UVA is going to be good. In fact, I was buying heavily into the “UVA TRAP GAME” hype earlier this year. But the more I think about it, the more I just don’t think they’re going to make a big enough jump this year, unless Perkins goes full Lamar Jackson this year.
If he plays more like Bowl Game Perkins and less like Loss to IU Perkins all season, he could end up being a Heisman candidate and crushing my expectations for that team.
Overall last year he was a 65%, 2600 yard passer with 25 TD and 9 INT and 900 rush yards and 9 TD….So I mean that’s more than like one or two good games there. I’m fearful of him against the unproven LB crew and the post-Michigan potential trap game has to be considered a bad spot in the schedule. UVA isn’t a NY6 team or anything though. It’s definitely a strong “should win” game.
ACC seems so average outside of Clemson who knows what could happen. Like you mention a paper thin schedule should have them reasonably OK by the end of the year.
Yes, but he also put up a bunch of those numbers against really weak defenses. Against VT he completed 48% and ended the game with a fumble. Against Miami he threw 3 INTs. Against Pitt he had negative rushing yardage on 15 carries.
He’s going to light up weak defenses, I have no doubt about that. I’m not convinced he will be able to handle good defenses. The South Carolina game is a strong counterpoint to that, but bowl games can be a weird animal. They had 4 games last year where they were held to 21 points or fewer, and I’m expecting that we will do the same to them this year.
“Against VT he completed 48% and ended the game with a fumble” and also threw for 259 yards and 3 TDs and rushed 24 times for 112 yards, and was the only reason it was a competitive game so I wouldn’t gloss over that as a poor performance, though point taken on the loss.
I don’t think UVA is dropping 40 on ND or anything, but I do think Perkins will be one of the most dangerous weapons at QB on the schedule. It wouldn’t shock me if he throws for 250, rushes for 80 and has 3 TD combined. That’s probably his high-end ceiling, but scares me a bit because not too many guys have that type of potential, especially running yet still throwing accurate. Perkins isn’t just a Wimbush type (who couldn’t even go through the air against weaker teams).
..And if he grows off the SC game and it wasn’t a fluke or a weird bowl game dismissal, that’s all the more unsettling.
Meh, again they beat a total of 2 (3 if you want to count S&P+ #50 Duke, who I guess did have a QB drafted top 10) reasonably decent teams last year. I’m not worried about that game as anything more than the 7th or 8th most worrisome game on our schedule.
By that logic Michigan only beat 3 S&P+ top 50 teams last year as well (higher caliber but still they also lost to 3 top 50 teams as well).
I’m a bit more concerned about UVA the week after Michigan. Not sleeping on that game as one that should be one of the easier ones on the schedule but we shall see how it goes. Hopefully your read on it is right and it’s a relatively low-drama type of game, I’m not ready to dismiss the likelihood though that it will be one of the best opposing QBs ND will see all year and a real potential trap game the week after a rivalry road game.
A bit off topic, but man, Wimbush really came up with a fantastic transfer strategy:
1) get a degree from ND, where you will have connections for life
2) get a grad degree from UCF, one of the largest networks of college graduates in the country, giving you more connections for life
3) also, UCF’s starting QB is a running QB with very little experience and accuracy issues. If you don’t win the starting job, there’s still a good chance you end up seeing the field due to injury or effectiveness problems
3b) said QB breaks his ankle, setting you up for a shot at glory with a team that has been great recently
I really hope he’s successful there this year. They could be my 2nd favorite team to follow this season.
I’m getting a custom UCF Wimbush jersey to wear for week 3.
I hope he rushes for 300 yards against UConn.
It’s in play.
I do wish pundits would follow your lead and at least admit their rankings are about projections and not the overall strength of the team. I don’t think Michigan would be a top 10 team if they caught Buckeye and the Irish on the road.