Our first game week of 2017 is finally here! With the start of the season upon us, we thought a Notre Dame football opponent primer might be helpful. You know what has happened in the offseason at our own program, but it’s a bit more difficult to keep up with the goings-on at all 12 14 programs the Irish will face this year. As the Walking Schematic Advantage would say, time to dive in…
Temple
2016 Performance
Record: 10-4 (7-1 AAC), AAC champ
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 32nd/79th/16th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 35th/46th/29th
Prognosis
Temple has to replace six starters in the front seven (including DE Haason Redick, #13 overall pick in the NFL draft), a four-year starter at quarterback, their top rusher, and two starting offensive lineman. There’s some playmaking ability left at RB and WR, but still, that’s a lot of key attrition. They may pull things together later in the year, but replacing all that talent and having things run smoothly in Week 1 seems like a tall order. On top of that, they’re replacing the man in charge as well; Matt Rhule took the Baylor job and was replaced by Geoff Collins, former Florida defensive coordinator. With so much change, Temple is extremely likely to take a step back from their program zenith under Rhule.
Georgia
2016 Performance
Record:Â 8-5 (4-4 SEC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 68th/93rd/34th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 54th/80th/36th
Prognosis
Georgia returns all 11 full-time defensive starters and will likely have to rely on them quite heavily, as their offense could be a problem all season. USC’s Ronald Johnson has an argument as the best running back the Irish will face this year, but nobody in the country has as good a 1-2 punch as Michel and Chubb. Aside from them, though…
- The quarterback situation is muddled between true sophomore Jacob Eason and true freshman Jake Fromm; Fromm looked good in the spring game, but both have been up and down in fall camp.
- Isaiah McKenzie, who declared early for the NFL, was their only proven playmaker in the passing game; junior Terry Godwin has 73 career catches at a 10.6 yard per catch clip, while sophomore Riley Ridley recorded an impressive 19.9 yard per catch last year but on only 12 receptions.
- Most importantly, the offensive line has the potential to be a disaster; it was, charitably, mediocre last year and it lost three starters. The line will feature a 6’2″ guard at LT, a redshirt sophomore with two career appearances at LG, a mediocre DT-turned-RG at C, a redshirt freshman at RG, and a true freshman at RT. Georgia fans do not have the warm fuzzies.
In addition, the secondary has been been somewhat unsettled during camp and starting cornerback Malkom Parrish’s injury (broken foot, out several weeks) threw it further into disarray. Not only will Georgia miss his experience (25 career starts and solid disruption numbers), but his loss has had a domino effect on the entire defense; starting LB Lorenzo Carter has even gotten some snaps at nickel during camp. Tulsa transfer JR Reed and true freshman Richard Lecounte have gotten some first team reps at safety, too. They have athletes, for sure, and the front seven should be stout, but overall the defense is still a work in progress.
Boston College
2016 Performance
Record:Â 7-6 (2-6 ACC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 86th/124th/21st
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 93rd/121st/22nd
Prognosis
Don’t be fooled by the 7-6 record – Boston College was a bad team last year. Their record was buoyed considerably by an out of conference slate that featured FCS Wagner, UMass (S&P+ #117), UConn (#123), and Buffalo (#127), and a bowl game against equally weak Maryland (#87). Their top two rushers return and they add true freshman RB AJ Dillon, former ND recruit and Thom Gatewood’s grandson, but the offense will likely struggle mightily again. Their defense was solid, as usual, but by any measure their offense was one of the worst in the country – 118th in scoring, 96th in rushing, 120th in passing, 124th in S&P+, 121st in FEI, etc. etc. DE Harold Landry is one of the top prospects in the country this year and will look to improve on his 16.5 sacks from last year. He’s good. Boston College is not.
Michigan State
2016 Performance
Record:Â 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 57th/66th/41st
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 67th/43rd/104th
Prognosis
The list of programs that had a worse 2016 than Notre Dame is pretty short, but Michigan State is on it. Yes, they beat the Irish last year, but that was about the last thing that went right for them. The defense was weak compared to Dantonio’s usual product. The offense was pedestrian, as it generally has been, but with less support from the defense the losses started to flow freely. A blowout loss to Penn State was the final insult of the season, but unlike Notre Dame, their disaster carried into the offseason. Four players were expelled as a result of two separate sexual assault incidents, including three key defenders and their top WR. A projected starting LB was voted off the team after reportedly using a racial slur. A starting OT lost his love for football and left the team. Starting DE Demetrius Cooper’s status is uncertain pending some minor legal issues. The secondary depth chart returns a total of 15 starts, with several expected contributors lost to injury or academic issues. The offensive line returns fewer than 40 career starts, with 25 of them coming from one guy.
Add all that to more typical attrition – they lost their starting QB, LT, C, TE, FB, DT, NT, MLB, and FS to graduation, and stars DE Malik McDowell and SS Montae Nicholson left early for the NFL. Bruising RB LJ Scott returns, but he’s a lonely guy. Their roster is a complete wreck wright now; .500 might well represent a substantial achievement for Dantonio this year.
Miami (OH)
2016 Performance
Record:Â 6-7 (6-2 MAC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 98th/102nd/75th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 77th/74th/58th
Prognosis
2016 was a tale of two seasons for Miami, as Chuck Martin’s charges opened 0-6, got their starting QB back from injury, and closed the regular season on a 6-0 run. They met Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl and nearly pulled off the upset, as the Bulldogs blocked a potential game-winning field goal attempt with five seconds left. Miami returns that QB, their top three RBs, two of their top three WRs, their starting TE, and four OL starters. On the other side of the ball, they lost both starting DEs but return everyone else. Martin will never have a better chance to build momentum in the Cradle of Coaches than he has this year.
North Carolina
2016 Performance
Record:Â 8-5 (5-3 ACC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 21st/26th/44th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 24th/35th/76th
Prognosis
You probably know that QB Mitch Trubisky is gone, taken #2 overall by the Chicago Bears after one of the more curious draft-day trades in memory. You might not know that the Tar Heels also lost nearly everyone else who had done anything on offense; they return a total of 37 of 1,914 rush yards (not a misprint) and 1,123 of 3,811 receiving yards, and they lost two all-ACC offensive linemen. And while they return a lot of pieces on defense, they lost their defensive coordinator; Gene Chizik decided to step away to spend more time with his family. LB coach John Pachuchis stepped in for Chizik and will look to continue his positive momentum. In a departure from its recent history under Larry Fedora, North Carolina’s defense may need to carry the weight for its offense in 2017.
USC
2016 Performance
Record:Â 10-3 (7-2 PAC 12)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 9th/11th/20th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 12th/22nd/37th
Prognosis
After opening the season 1-3 and seeming in utter disarray, USC closed with a vengeance. They won their last nine games, capped by a stirring comeback win over Penn State in the Rose Bowl, and landed at #3 in the final AP poll. That stretch run plus the ascendancy of Sam Darnold as the presumed #1 pick in the 2018 NFL draft has many penciling USC into the top 10 again. They have a good number of questions marks, though, as they return just 10 starters total from last year’s team; they’ll have talent, as always, but they won’t have much experience. Darnold and RB Ronald Johnson are back and are unquestionably two of the best in the country at their positions. However, top WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers are gone, as are last year’s starting LT, LG, and RT. The defense lost CB Adoree Jackson and S Leon McQuay, as well as an ILB and both DTs. The Trojans also lost all four team captains – reserve QB Max Browne, LT Zach Banner, Jackson, and ILB Michael Hutchings.
Will they be terrible? No, almost assuredly not. Realistically, though, that’s an awful lot of experience and leadership to replace in one offseason. They open with home games against Western Michigan, Stanford, and Texas – those three games could tell us a lot about how well they’ve replaced the missing pieces.
NC State
2016 Performance
Record:Â 7-6 (3-5 ACC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 25th/55th/11th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 43rd/53rd/28th
Prognosis
The Wolfpack lost top RB Matthew Hayes, who accounted for over half their rushing yards last year, but return QB Ryan Finley and his top four receiving targets. WDE Bradley Chubb, who has former #1 overall pick Mario Williams’s school sack record in sight, will be neck-and-neck with Harold Landry for “Best Notre Dame Opponent DE” honors. SDE Kentavius Street is no slouch either; they and their linemates make up arguably the best defensive front the Irish will see this year. The defense returns nine starters overall. Things in Raleigh seem primed for HC Dave Doeren to break through the 7/8 win barrier, but can he pull it off in a division with Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville?
Wake Forest
2016 Performance
Record:Â 7-6 (3-5 ACC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 60th/109th/22nd
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 63rd/106th/31st
Prognosis
Through six weeks last year, the Deacons stood at 5-1 with a road loss to NC State and road wins over Duke and Indiana. Then the wheels came off a bit; they went 1-5 over the second half of the season as their offense turned from anemic to lifeless (14.2 points per game). They went into the offseason with more positive vibes after knocking off AAC champion Temple in the Military Bowl, although the loss of rising star DC Mike Elko to Notre Dame was a bit of a damper. HC Dave Clawson replaced Elko with Minnesota DC Jay Sawvel, who was a GA at ND in the late 90’s for Lou Holtz and Bob Davie. Small world. Perhaps of more concern, or at least equal concern, is that they lost three of their top four performers in each of tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, and QB hurries. They return almost everyone who did anything on offense, but, well… Look at those offensive rankings. Returning everyone might not necessarily be a good thing. To make things worse, they have a bit of a QB controversy. Last year’s original starter, Kendall Hinton, went down with injury and his replacement, John Wolford, played, well, not great, but well enough to not be automatically out of the running when Hinton got healthy. So now they have to figure that out as well.
They seem like a pretty good bet to regress, which could possibly warm up Dave Clawson’s seat a bit.
Miami
2016 Performance
Record: 9-4 (5-3 ACC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 14th/34th/13th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 10th/50th/13th
Prognosis
Mark Richt showed some incremental progress over Al Golden’s tenure in his first season at the helm of his alma mater. The season was maddeningly inconsistent, with four straight wins to start, four straight losses in the middle, and five more wins to close it out. However, while Golden’s 2015 squad was badly embarrassed twice (58-0 vs. Clemson and 59-21 at UNC) and lost to an unranked team in a mediocre bowl (Wazzu in the Sun), Richt’s only got mildly embarrassed once (37-16 at Virginia Tech) and beat a ranked opponent in a mediocre bowl (then-#14 West Virginia in the Russell Athletic). Yay, progress! They also return six starters in a very good front seven, which should be good enough to give them a fighting chance against almost anyone in the country. And they return their top RB and most of their top receivers.
On the downside… QB Brad Kaaya (6th round draft pick), starting WR Stacey Coley (7th round), and playmaking TE David Njoku (1st round) are gone. They could probably handle the loss of Njoku and Coley without too much interruption, but Kaaya is a big loss. Not because he was a world-beater, necessarily, but because their options to replace him are not good. Junior Malik Rozier is 21/61 for 370 yards (6.1 ypa) with 2 TDs and 3 INTs in 13 career games. Redshirt sophomore Evan Shirreffs might have the edge right now but it’s close, and he’s never thrown a pass in competition. True freshman N’kosi Perry is the other option, but not really. They also return a lot of experience on their offensive line but it’s hard to say how many starters they return in the way the word is generally used, as the experience is kind of all over the place. They need to get their offensive line situation sorted out quickly or it won’t matter who the quarterback is.
Navy
2016 Performance
Record:Â 9-5 (7-1 AAC)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 52nd/17th/100th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 48th/1st/118th
Prognosis
Navy tore through their first 11 games last year with a 9-2 record, which of course included their methodical win over Notre Dame. They stumbled badly at the end, though, as they were clobbered by Temple in the AAC championship game, lost to Army for the first time since 2001, and scored 45 points but lost to Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces bowl. Ken Niumatalolo is about as far from being on a hot seat as a coach can possibly be, but even so, he could use a fast start to 2017 to erase some of those bad memories. They lost seven starters on offense, including QB Will Worth and three offensive linemen. The defense returns a lot of experience but, similar to Wake Forest’s offensive returners, that might not mean much.
Junior QB Zach Abey looked shaky in those final three games last year, relieving Worth after a season-ending injury during the Temple game, and has looked shaky during prep for this season. Any offense relies heavily on its quarterback, but perhaps no offense does so to the extent that the triple option does. If Abey can step up, the Middies should be fine. If not, it could be a very long season.
Stanford
2016 Performance
Record: 10-3Â (6-3 PAC 12)
S&P+ Overall/Offense/Defense:Â 23rd/60th/18th
FEI Overall/Offense/Defense: 30th/79th/11th
Prognosis
Stanford sat at a bit of a crossroads when they arrived in South Bend last year; they were 3-2, with solid opening wins against Kansas State, USC, and UCLA, followed by thorough thrashings at the hands of Washington (44-6) and Washington State (42-16). That was followed by winning a game that Notre Dame worked desperately to give to them, dropping a squeaker to then-#10 Colorado, and reeling off six straight wins to end the season. The Cardinal return a number of pieces, including four starters on the OL and seven of the back eight starters in their 3-4 defense, but they lost their two biggest stars: #3 overall pick DE Solomon Thomas and #8 overall RB Christian McCaffrey. Speedy RB Bryce Love is a different style of runner than McCaffrey but should be a capable replacement. Replacing Thomas, however, is a taller order.
Inexperienced redshirt senior Eric Cotton will try to fill the shoes of Thomas, who led Stanford in tackles (62), solo tackles (41), tackles for loss (15.0), and sacks (8.0) last year. 41 solo tackles by a defensive end. That’s nuts! Returning DT Harrison Phillips, an honorable selection to the all-conference team in 2016, is the best candidate to replace Thomas’s disruption numbers. Also gone is SS Dallas Lloyd, who led the Cardinal in interceptions (5) and was second in tackles (61). Former Notre Dame target Justin Reid, who started last year at FS, will move to SS, while 2016 reserve FS Brandon Simmons will step into the starting role.
Great preview. Season anticipation is at full throttle for me. If I had one (reasonable) wish it would be not to get tripped up by a middle-tier opponent early (MSU, UNC) that could derail the season and possibly Kelly altogether. In CBK’s 10+ win seasons they find ways to win those type of games, even when not pretty. In the lesser years they seemingly drop about 2-4 games to teams one would see on paper like this article says as somewhat of a “should win” that becomes a head-scratching performance and messy loss.
I completely agree with your main point. I’ll differ on MSU being a mid-tier opponent this year, though – even with Miami (OH) and Temple on the schedule, MSU could end up being the worst team we play. I’m waging a campaign of re-information against the institutional fear of MSU. They’re going to be really bad this year. Really bad.
Teams that don’t concern me at all: Temple, BC, MSU, Miami (OH), Wake
Teams that concern me a bit: UNC, Navy
Teams that concern me a bit more: Georgia, NC State, Miami (FL)
Teams that concern me quite a bit: USC, Stanford
As of today I’m calling 10-2 with losses to USC and Miami (FL). But, like you, I fear the loss to UNC/Navy/NC State (or Pitt/USF/Northwestern/etc.) that has bitten us in the posterior during Kelly’s down years. We need to avoid those toe stubs.
Valid points. Recent results against MSU and Navy always strike a little more fear in my heart than they should. I hope your prediction does pan out, I could only imagine how fun an undefeated game against SC would be in primetime…You know, until the end.
BC will never be a team that doesn’t concern me at all…
Also, apologies for off topic but figured Brendan would like this…Some talk about Jurkovec vs. Terrelle Pryor as QBs, which is a positive thing!
I don’t not see 12*-0 based on this primer.
*14
Yeah, seems pretty incomplete to not include our CFP opponents in the opponent primer.
What, a key offensive lineman just walked away from football at MSU? How is that possible? I’ve been led to believe by individuals (in dark corners) on the internet that this only happens at Notre Dame.
Heh… It’s always risky to draw too many conclusions from anecdotal evidence, but it feels like this has been more common lately. I think attitudes toward football have changed enough that if a kid is on the fence about wanting to put up with the physical beating, it’s easier not to feel like society will look down on you for walking away.
Good write up. Thanks for putting this together.
I think NC State is the team that worries me the most after USC and Stanford. Must be those troubling practice reports of Kraemer in pass pro!
I hear you man. I would put Georgia, Miami, and NC State in a tie for third – each has enough talent in the front seven to make life difficult. The offensive line really needs to be at a high level consistently against all of them.
While Georgia may have the name recognition, I put them at the bottom of those three. Imo they were awful last year which was hidden by a super light schedule. S&P+ had them at 68th last year, while Miami and NC State were both in the S&P+ top 25. (For reference 3-9 Iowa St. had a better S&P+ ranking last year than Georgia.) Georgia should be improved, but I’m not sure it’ll be to the level of the other two.
Miami actually worries me the most right now, because it’s on the road and it’s later in the season. Like I said, replacing Kaaya might be difficult and their OL has some question marks, but they’ll have plenty of time to try to figure that out before they play us. If they can’t figure it out, great! But if they can, they probably have the best front seven we’ll see this year and that game could be very tough.
NC State unquestionably has the best pair of defensive ends we’ll go up against. There will be no hiding Tommy Kraemer, who has looked shaky in pass protection throughout camp. Will he need to be hidden at that point? They’re also right after USC, and however that game goes it makes NC State a prime letdown game candidate. Hayes is a big loss but I like their chances to be decent on offense at least. If this was a road game I might be tempted to pencil it into the loss column. That’s how close it is.
I’ve been banging the “Georgia isn’t as good as you think they are” drum for a long time here, so I’m with you on that. I also have little belief in Kirby Smart, honestly. However, I’m curbing my dismissal because, hey, I could be wrong. It’s happened before once or twice… They have a ton of talent in their front seven, talent that all got lots of experience last year. That makes me really nervous. Maybe I’m underestimating Smart. Maybe I’m overweighting Eason’s true freshman year, or maybe Fromm will break out. Miami and NC State don’t have one back as good as Michel or Chubb, let alone two, and that gives some reason for concern too. And there will be immense pressure on the Lads to prove they’re for real. On the other hand, their secondary and offensive line are a hot mess right now, neither Eason nor Fromm has impressed, and there will be immense pressure on them as well.
You could sell me on a win or a loss in any of those three games. I’m going 2-1 with the road loss now, but I reserve my right to retroactively adjust it when we sit at 6-0 during the bye week.
Sounds about right. In my mind I’ve been sitting at losses to Stanford and USC, plus one more from one of the three we’ve been discussing for a 9-3 regular season. But I think Georgia is the least likely one of the three that we lose to. I just hope that if we end at 9-3 after starting 6-0 it doesn’t turn into a “we choked” narrative by the fan base since in reality the back half of the schedule is really just that much more difficult than the front half.
I think that in the court of public perception, a loss to Miami is the least harmful. A loss to Stanford is evidence that they’re still doing what we’re doing better than we’re doing it, and a loss to USC is evidence that we can’t keep up with them. A loss to Miami, though, doesn’t have all that built-in negativity around it, at least not these days.
I desperately want to beat Stanford this year. Whether we go 8-4 or 11-1, if it includes a Stanford loss, it’s going to be a topic for the entire offseason. Please, BK, take care of business this year like you should’ve the last two years. Please.