Welcome to a new feature here on 18Stripes, where we dig into potential playoff teams by tier and take a shot at how things could shake out. Our board will consist of all ranked undefeated teams and all ranked one-loss Power 5 teams – first from the AP poll, then from the committee rankings when they’re available in a few weeks. I define “resume wins” for our purposes as wins over currently-ranked teams; it gets too complicated to project whether teams will drop out of or climb into the rankings as the year progresses.
Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s table over S&P+ win probabilities – I think both methodologies are sound. 538’s presentation is just a lot easier to work with versus pulling up individual S&P+ win probabilities for everyone.
Undefeated Teams
With apologies to UCF, an undefeated team will generally control its own destiny. All these teams, again with apologies to UCF, are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today.
#1 Alabama
Next game: vs. Missouri
Resume wins to date: #22 Texas A&M
Possible resume wins: at #13 LSU, vs. #24 Mississippi State, vs. #21 Auburn, SEC East winner
538 table-running probability: 32%
Alabama, like it or not, gets extra credit for having won half the available titles since 2009. They’re more in control of their destiny than anyone; even one loss probably wouldn’t be enough to knock them out of the playoff, as everybody knows they’re one of the top few teams in the country. I almost put everyone knows in quotes, but I didn’t because there’s no subtext needed. It’s just true.
They’d be out if they lose two or maybe if they lose one and the right sequence of other things happens around them – like Notre Dame, Clemson, and West Virginia all run the table while Georgia, regardless of record, beats them in the SEC championship game.
#2 Georgia
Next game: at #13 LSU
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #13 LSU, vs. #14 Florida (in Jacksonville), at #18 Kentucky, vs. #21 Auburn, SEC West winner
538 table-running probability: 17%
Georgia controls their destiny, but poop is about to get real for the Bulldogs. Those next four possible resume wins are consecutive opponents, starting with LSU this Saturday, and Auburn is the only home game in that stretch. They’ve looked good against the badly overmatched opponents they’ve faced so far. Will they hold up as the schedule gets tougher?
#3 Ohio State
Next game: vs. Minnesota
Resume wins to date: at #8 Penn State
Possible resume wins: vs. #12 Michigan, Big Ten West Winner
538 table-running probability: 33%
All kinds of questions swirl around the Buckeyes; they begin with the Urban Meyer Zachgate drama, but they’ve shown some blemishes on the field as well. After dispatching Penn State in dramatic fashion a couple of weeks ago, they’re in good position to win the conference again. Even so, this Buckeye edition feels more vulnerable than usual, especially with Nick Bosa’s return from abdominal surgery uncertain. On the other hand, as things stand today Michigan looks like the only real threat ahead of them, including any potential conference title game opponent. And we know how Michigan has fared against them in the Harbaugh era.
#4 Clemson
Next game: vs. #20 NC State
Resume wins to date: at #22 Texas A&M
Possible resume wins: vs. #20 NC State, ACC Coastal winner
538 table-running probability: 36%
Clemson’s schedule to date isn’t quite as soft as Alabama and Georgia’s, but their remaining schedule is much softer. There’s a chance that Boston College and/or Duke could climb into the top 25 and help them a bit, but that’s damning with faint praise. Even so, like a mini-Bama, they’ve built up quite a bit of equity by being good for a long time, and if they run the table there’s no doubt they’ll be in the playoff. So they’re in control. Yet with wins over the two strongest teams they’ve faced – A&M and Syracuse – by a total of six points, it’s also fair to wonder if their schedule holds a loss ahead despite its softness.
#5 Notre Dame
Next game: vs. Pitt
Resume wins to date: #12 Michigan
Possible resume wins: None
538 table-running probability: 39%
Notre Dame’s schedule this year is much weaker than anyone expected, which makes the tightrope the Irish must walk a bit narrower. A mild silver lining is that there’s a chance that some of their opponents will climb back into the top 25; S&P+ win probabilities suggest non-pie-in-the-sky chances for an 8-4 or better regular season record for Stanford (47%), USC (43%), Syracuse (30%), and Virginia Tech (17%). By historical norms, 8-4 for a Power 5 team should be enough to be in or near the back end of the rankings.
Regardless, though, the schedule is a potential problem – but only if the Irish lose a game. Put me down as believing that it’s a stone-cold lead-pipe lock twice over that a 12-0 Notre Dame team will never, ever be left out of the playoff. There’s no way. First of all, I’m not much of one for conspiracy theories – I don’t think the committee will go out of their way to keep Notre Dame down. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the moment a 12-0 Notre Dame is left out is the moment the four-team playoff dies. Nobody wants that, at least not yet.
Now, lose a game, and like in any other season and for any other team you turn it into a beauty contest. And beauty contests are inherently wonky. So, don’t do that.
#6 West Virginia
Next game: at Iowa State
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #9 Texas, vs. #11 Oklahoma, Big 12 title game opponent
538 table-running probability: 5%
I feel like West Virginia is the forgotten Power 5 contender – I certainly have to remind myself repeatedly that they’re in the picture. Their best win to date is probably Texas Tech, who’s not bad but also not all that good, so it’s hard to know what to make of them. They’re about to visit an Iowa State team that has beaten Oklahoma State and lost to Iowa, Oklahoma, and TCU by a total of 23 points. If Iowa State beats them, they’re dead. If Iowa State hangs with them, I think the questions don’t go away yet. If they hammer the Cyclones, then we can look at them more seriously.
The biggest challenge for them, should they make it to the Oklahoma game unblemished, is that they’ll probably have to beat Oklahoma twice in a row. Because the Big 12 is dumb.
#10 UCF
Next game: at Memphis
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #25 Cincinnati, at #23 South Florida, American West division winner
538 table-running probability: 17%
You know who has the longest win streak in FBS? It’s the Golden Knights, winners of 18 straight. That means [Team Playing UCF This Week] has no bigger fan than the CFB powers that be. I’m not sold that UCF really controls their destiny because I think even if they win out they’re going to be left out again, and again likely in favor of multiple one-loss teams. That’s a nightmare scenario for the Playoff as it will almost force the Group of 5 schools to file a collusion lawsuit. The Knights still have Memphis, Temple, and Navy on the schedule, in addition to Cincinnati and South Florida. S&P+ gives them a 25% chance of winning out in the regular season, and then they’d have to beat someone decent in the AAC title game. So it’s still not likely, but man, buckle up if they pull it off.
It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility to have multiple Power 5 champs with 2 or more losses. The Pac 12 will probably end up that way; there’s a chance the Big 12 will as well and a somewhat smaller chance the ACC or Big Ten might too. That would probably be UCF’s ticket into the playoff, even at 13-0.
#19 Colorado
Next game: at USC
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #7 Washington, Pac 12 North winner
538 table-running probability: < 1%
Much like many humans, the computers don’t seem to think Colorado’s 5-0 start is the real deal. Given that those wins came at the expense of Colorado State, New Hampshire, the corpses of Nebraska and UCLA’s programs, and Herm Edwards’s Little Cardinals… Well, can you blame them? S&P+ has them as substantial underdogs in their next two games, at just 40% to beat USC and 21% to beat Washington. Oh, and both games are on the road. We should know how real they are soon enough.
#20 NC State
Next game: at #4 Clemson
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #4 Clemson, ACC Coastal division winner
538 Table-Running Probability: 3%
Go ahead, look it up. NC State really is undefeated. Sure, their five wins came over James Madison, Georgia State, Marshall, Virginia, and Boston College, but hey, 5-0. With a visit to Death Valley East on tap I’m pretty sure they’re only going to be on the board here one time, but they can enjoy it while it lasts.
#23 South Florida / #25 Cincinnati
Next game: at Tulsa / at Temple
Resume wins to date: Georgia Tech / UCLA (not ranked, but they do each get some credit for knocking off Power 5 teams)
Possible resume wins: Each other, #10 UCF, AAC title game opponent
538 table-running probability: 3% / 5%
I’m lumping these guys together because there really isn’t much point to reviewing them. Unfortunate for them, but reality. If UCF will struggle to get in at 13-0, both of these teams would struggle even more – and both have a razor-thin chance of winning out. They probably won’t be here long either, but both are undefeated, so… Here they are.
One Loss Teams
These teams aren’t out of it but will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.
#7 Washington
Next game: at #17 Oregon
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #17 Oregon, PAC 12 South winner
The one loss: #21 Auburn (in Atlanta)
538 table-running probability: 18%
Washington’s season-opening loss to Auburn was a killer given that USC and Stanford both look softer than expected. Even if they win out, it’s going to be very hard for them to stack up to other one-loss teams. A second loss would almost certainly doom them completely barring utter chaos elsewhere.
#8 Penn State
Next game: vs. Michigan State
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #12 Michigan, vs. #15 Wisconsin, Big Ten West winner
The one loss: vs. #3 Ohio State
538 table-running probability: 21%
Their playoff chances are already on life support after the loss to Ohio State. To get into the conference title game they need to win out while the Buckeyes lose two from the group of Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland, and Michigan. That seems… unlikely.
#9 Texas
Next game: vs. Baylor
Resume wins to date: at #11 Oklahoma
Possible resume wins: vs. #6 West Virginia, Big 12 title game opponent
The one loss: at Maryland
538 table-running probability: 7%
Texas crashed the party in a big way last weekend, with an upset so stunning it made for Mike Stoops’s exit from Norman. They carry probably the worst loss of anyone in the playoff picture: their second-straight season-opening upset by Maryland. That loss might be tough to overcome, but if they win out the committee might give them the benefit of the doubt on it just due to time elapsed.
#11 Oklahoma
Next game: at TCU
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #6 West Virginia, Big 12 title game opponent
The one loss: vs. #9 Texas
538 table-running probability: 13%
The loss to Texas has the Sooners teetering on the edge of playoff relevance. It’s pretty easy to find one more loss in their remaining schedule, and if that happens they’re definitely toast. They need to hope that West Virginia keeps it together and some stuff happens elsewhere.
#12 Michigan
Next game: vs. #15 Wisconsin
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #15 Wisconsin, vs. #8 Penn State, at #3 Ohio State
The one loss: You know what it is. BWA HA HA HA HA.
538 table-running probability: 6%
I’m not sure how good Wisconsin or Penn State really is, but regardless, the remaining slate will be much harder than the schedule so far. The one thing the Skunkbears having going for them versus Penn State is that their loss occurred in a non-conference game, which means they can take the division only by winning out. I know I should pull for them to win out as our only current resume win, but I can’t do it. DIE, WOLVERINES. DIE.
#13 LSU
Next game: vs. #2 Georgia
Resume wins to date: #16 Miami (at Jerry World), at #21 Auburn
Possible resume wins: vs. #2 Georgia, vs. #24 Mississippi State, vs. #1 Alabama, at #22 Texas A&M, SEC East winner
The one loss: at #14 Florida
538 table-running probability: 2%
Which of these is true?
(a) LSU is a legitimately good team.
(b) LSU will probably finish 8-4/9-3.
Trick question! The answer is both. That schedule is just brutal, which is why 538 gives them a 2% chance of winning out and S&P+ gives them a 1% chance. In the unlikely event that the Tigers do indeed run the table, they will have earned their spot in the playoff. The more likely scenario is that they play the spoiler.
#14 Florida
Next game: at Vanderbilt
Resume wins to date: at #24 Mississippi State, vs. #13 LSU
Possible resume wins: #2 Georgia (in Jacksonville), SEC West winner
The one loss: at #18 Kentucky
538 table-running probability: 4%
You look at the second-half death schedules that most of the SEC teams have, and then you look at Florida. S&P+ gives them just a 22% chance to win the Cocktail Party, but if they can pull that off they should coast to the SEC East title. Quite the turnaround from their work last season under current Michigan WR coach Jim “Sharklover” McElwain. They don’t have a great shot at making it to the postseason, but they have fewer external obstacles than a lot of other teams.
#15 Wisconsin
Next game: at #12 Michigan
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #12 Michigan, at #8 Penn State, Big Ten East winner
The one loss: vs. BYU
538 table-running probability: 2%
I said before that Texas has “probably” the worst loss on the board; the reason it isn’t definitely the worst is BYU’s defeat of Wisconsin. BYU is, charitably, not good, and Wisconsin lost to them at home. At least Texas had to travel for their loss… Like Michigan, Wisconsin is helped by their loss being non-conference, and they’re also helped by being in the Big Ten West. The Wisconsin-Michigan matchup this week is a playoff elimination game.
#16 Miami
Next game: at Virginia
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: ACC Atlantic winner
The one loss: vs. #13 LSU
538 table-running probability: 2%
Miami is hurt substantially by their loss to the only good team they’ll face during the regular season. Even if they win the ACC their resume won’t stack up well against other one-loss Power 5 teams, so they would probably need significant help.
#17 Oregon
Next game: vs. #7 Washington
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #7 Washington, Pac 12 South winner
The one loss: vs. Stanford
538 table-running probability: 3%
Yet another likely one-week denizen, although their loss was 2011-USF-aliens level unfortunate, so maybe they’re better than they look. 538 and S&P+ will both like Oregon a lot better if they can get past Washington this week; if they don’t, they’re out.
#18 Kentucky
Next game: vs. Vanderbilt
Resume wins to date: at #14 Florida, vs. #24 Mississippi State
Possible resume wins: vs. #2 Georgia, SEC West winner
The one loss: at #22 Texas A&M
538 table-running probability: 2%
Kentucky’s Cinderella story came to a crashing halt last week when they lost a one-score game in College Station. I’m not quite ready to write them off though, given that they’ve beaten two ranked teams by a combined score of 55-23. They’re very much alive in the SEC East, which gives them a fringe chance at the playoff as well.
I am still so shell-shocked from 2012. I want absolutely nothing to do with Bama.
Well, I can’t blame you. I do kind of wonder how good Alabama really is this year though – I mean, they’ve looked murderous, but they also haven’t really played anyone yet other than a middling A&M. They can validate the Death Star talk with a comfortable win at LSU.
What would be really fun is if someone upsets Alabama and wins the West on h2h, then does whatever in the SEC title game, while ND, Clemson, and Ohio State go undefeated. We would probably end up in the 2/3 game with Clemson while OSU would take on the SEC champ. It’s not likely, but I can dream.
And yes, I’m 100% positive that a one-loss non-conference-champ Alabama would be behind a 12-0 ND.
Hasn’t Alabama won two National Championships despite NOT playing in their conference championship? (Too tired to look it up). I remember 2012 and being so happy that KState lost, moving ND up, but then Oregon lost, too, moving Alabama up as well. If either KState or Oregon had not lost that one game in week 11, Alabama would have been locked out.
Wonder all you want, Alabama is really good this year! (Unfortunately.)
Let’s stop kidding ourselves. We all know we’re gonna beat Bama in the semifinals then lose to like Washington in the championship.
I ask because I dont know. How many conference games do most teams play. How many P5 games. ND plays 10 P5 games. That seems like a lot.
Most conferences play 8 (SEC, ACC, B1G, I’m pretty sure). Pac12 and Big12 play 9.
If we count ND as P5 team, by my count, USC plays 11, Michigan plays 10, and VT plays 9, so 10 is probably not too special.
Here is what my beef has always been with the conference thing, though. Everyone seems to talk about a conference championship game as if ND plays the same schedule as everyone else, and then at the end of the year, ND hangs out and does nothing, while, all other things being equal, conference champs play in some big time game.
In reality, ND develops their schedule to be competitive with CCGs in mind. They’re one of only, I think, 3 P5 teams (including USC) who never play an FCS opponent. Most other teams play an FCS game every year.
In my opinion, the only really really logical way to compare schedules is to line them up, top to bottom, best game to worst.
If you compare schedules that way, I think 99% of the time you will find that the “extra game” that ND didn’t play compared to a conf. champ was not a big time game while ND players were playing foosball in the dorms. The extra game was actually that one down at the bottom, Savanna State or whatever, while the other 12 games line up favorably for ND.
Navy counts as 2 P5 games, because…Navy.
Would much rather dump Navy and schedule, say Purdue, Baylor, Texas Tech, Colorado(insert middle of the road P5 team)
” it’s a stone-cold lead-pipe lock twice over that a 12-0 Notre Dame team will never, ever be left out of the playoff.”
As a matter of probability, yes. However, ND does not yet control its own destiny this year given how the schedule has turned out. If Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and West Virginia go undefeated, that’s your playoff.
But, FiveThirtyEight says the odds of that happening AND ND going undefeated is basically nil.
Completely disagree. The BXII’s only real hope right now is for OU to go undefeated and look dominant doing it. If WVU wins that conference, they are going to go to the Fiesta and ND will be in.
Undefeated WVU would have beaten at least four teams better than ND’s second-best win in that scenario, unless Stanford really turns it around. We’d need Michigan to win the Big Ten to have a shot.
Yeah, that’s part of my assumption – the odds of having *five* undefeated P5 teams are astronomically small. In the 16 full seasons since 2002 (which is as far back as ESPN’s rankings page goes), just 19 P5 teams have entered bowl season undefeated. Five of those sixteen seasons featured exactly two pre-bowl perfect teams (most recently 2010, with Oregon and Auburn) and only one season had three (2004, which saw USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn make it through unscathed).
So would a 12-0 ND be guaranteed entry in every mathematically possible scenario? No. But I’m comfortable enough with the probabilities to say that we would effectively be guaranteed entry.
Yep, that’s what I figured. But, I actually think that’s really the only possible scenario where 12-0 ND is left out, though – if Colorado or NC State somehow run the table, our schedule and results will probably end up better than theirs, even with the conference championship games.
I’ve always wanted to try a line graph for a CFB resume visual. Made this for fun/out of curiosity. It only includes games against the top 100, due to the website I used.
I dont think I would have chosen a line as the chart mode for this data. Also, what is “margin?” Are you saying that Clem has played a 90 F+ team and had a MOV of 60?
Margin of victory. Clemson beat Wake Forest by 60.
So what’s the big ten situation it pennstate beats Michigan and Michigan beats Ohio state?
Huh – if they each have one conference loss… The tiebreaker rules get a little convoluted, but it starts with looking at each team’s record against the other tied teams as a single number, not a set of head-to-heads. In that scenario Penn State would be 1-1 against [UM/OSU], Michigan would be 1-1 against [OSU/PSU], and OSU would be 1-1 against [PSU/UM]. So…
The next tiebreaker is record against all common opponents. All three would’ve beaten everyone else in their division and there’s no common opponent from the West for all three, so that doesn’t really help.
The next tiebreaker after that is cumulative conference record of non-divisional opponents. Penn State’s crossovers are Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin (currently 4-2), Michigan’s are Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin (4-4), and Ohio State’s are Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska (1-6). Lots of games left to play but OSU seems pretty likely to stay the loser of this one.
If they somehow stay tied on that it goes to best overall winning percentage; in this scenario that would drop Michigan out, as they’d be 11-2 and OSU/PSU would both be 12-1. I would assume they’d then start the tiebreaker process over with those two, which OSU would win by virtue of the head-to-head result with PSU.
Alternatively, if just PSU and Michigan are tied on non-divisional opponent record, PSU would advance on the head-to-head result with Michigan.
I’m not 100% sure that’s how it would go but I’ll stick by it for now.
I love the 538 predictor because of its design, but I must add that it’s inherently flawed in its model with regards to ND. The probability of ND being in the playoff if they win out according to that model is about in the range of a lot of the one loss teams getting in if they win out (some of the one loss teams are even projected with a higher likelihood). Example: If both ND and Texas win out 538 says their chances are: ND 75%, Texas 87%.
I’m sorry but there’s just no way that a 12-0 ND team will have the same likelihood as a one loss team.
Other examples if both teams win their remaining games (second team already having 1 loss):
ND 77, Wash 72
ND 81, Okla 76
ND 79, Wisc 93
ND 88, LSU 99
ND 89, Kentucky 96
Yeah, I think that’s a bit of a flaw. However, if LSU were to win out, they would probably be ranked ahead of an undefeated ND unless we keep winning every game by 3+ touchdowns. Kentucky would have a chance too. Not that either of those is going to happen.
Yeah I have less of a problem with the SEC comparisons in general. But for ND’s chance to be anywhere outside of the 90+ percentile for an undefeated season just seems statistically unsound.
I think it’s fair to assume a pretty wide confidence interval on their probabilities given the inherent fuzziness of what they’re trying to calculate. For example, I don’t think there’s all that much difference between an 85% chance of making the playoffs and a 95% chance.
I do question the whole “make the playoffs” probability idea, because it’s hugely fuzzy, tremendously fuzzy. The fuzziest from the standpoint of fuzziness. I put more stock in their individual game and win-out probabilities.
Agree with LSU. If they win out, I could definitely see them as a lock to get in. Wins over Bama, GA, MSST, A&M, and conf champ. Wow. That’d be a damn impressive resume
And Miami.
scUM loses to PSU then beats tOSU to send scUM to the B1G title game vs. Wiscy. Either way that game goes, I dont think there’s a chance an undefeated ND wouldnt get in that way and likely be ranked #2. We’d probably be similar to Clem and with their little scare against Cuse we’d likely get the upper hand in that debate.