Reviewing this post from last year was pretty enlightening. If you recall, Vegas was all hot and bothered by a bunch of running backs ahead of the 2018 season and listed several with obscenely high odds. Here’s what happened with a few of those players:
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
He finished 6th in the 2017 voting as a freshman with 4 players ahead of him moving on to the NFL so naturally he would bump up near the top of the odds, right? Taylor actually put up better numbers as a sophomore but Wisconsin struggled on the field and he fell back to a 9th place finish for 2018.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
If only we knew Ohio State would have little interest in running the ball last year! Dobbins came off a sensational freshman season with the Buckeyes that saw him move to +650 to win the Heisman then we watched his productivity plummet in a tweaked offense catering to quarterback Dawyne Haskins’ strengths. Dobbins’ rushing yards fell by 350 yards despite 36 more carries as his average per rush plummeted from 7.2 yards to 4.6 yards overall.
Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
I liked Love a lot last year at +700 and he flopped so incredibly hard that I can’t even feel bad about such a swing and miss. Injuries finally caught up to the smaller, speedy back as he finished 9th in rushing yardage…in the Pac-12 conference. Love’s rushing average crumbled to 4.4 yards per carry and he was essentially a complete non-factor for the Heisman race.
Out of Nowhere
Last year, I didn’t even bring up Kyler Murray who would go on to win the Heisman. Only reader juicebox mentioned in the comment section that it would be a good idea to include the Oklahoma quarterback no matter what and now Vegas agrees for 2019. Ignore the Sooner quarterback at your own peril!
If we’re looking for players that could come out of nowhere (relative to Vegas odds) with filters on the quarterback position at the Power 5 level we have some interesting candidates:
Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State
K.J. Costello, QB, Stanford
Bryce Perkins, QB, Virginia
Feleipe Franks, QB, Florida
Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
JT Daniels, QB, USC
Tate Martell, QB, Miami
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
Jacob Eason, QB, Washington
Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
Costello, Franks, and Mond are solid choices, each with enough experience and talent with the possibility to win big games. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of these quarterbacks finished in the top 10 of voting, although picking a winner is obviously advised against.
Purdy and Perkins are really interesting because both should put up impressive numbers and might get some love for keeping their teams in their respective conference title races. They wouldn’t necessarily need to win 11 games in the regular season to be invited to New York City.
I’ve seen Daniels with 60/1 odds so just outside the top 15 listed below and that could be a very smart buy. He’s undeniably talented and will have a really nice collection of receivers to throw to in 2019. The Trojans are also embracing an air raid offense so the numbers should go up considerably for Daniels in his second season. Most aren’t betting on USC playing super well as a team, although in the Pac-12 it wouldn’t be shocking to see them rise to the top if Daniels makes a big jump.
The final four listed are all shots in the dark to varying degrees. Martell could be the fun, run-heavy spread quarterback who begins a turn around for Miami. Thompson-Robinson could take off in year two under Chip Kelly. Eason might be the big-armed quarterback Washington is looking for to pair with their usually strong defense. Mertz hasn’t even won the Wisconsin job but seems destined to do big things in Madison sooner rather than later.
The Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson +175
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama +225
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State +1400
Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma +1400
Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia +1400
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin +1800
Adrian Martinez, QB, Nebraska +2000
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson +2200
D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia +2200
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon +2500
Sam Ehlinger, QB, Texas +2800
Ian Book, QB, Notre Dame +4000
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama +4000
Shea Patterson, QB, Michigan +4000
Austin Kendall, QB, West Virginia +5000
Okay, let’s sort out Lawrence vs. Tua first. If I had to pick one I would go with Alabama’s quarterback for a few reasons. One, I’m straining my memory to think of the last Heisman winner who was the favorite during the pre-season–going wire to wire in this day and age is really difficult. Baker Mayfield was a close second in 2017 to Sam Darnold (LOL), ditto for Marcus Mariota in 2014 behind Jameis Winston. I believe you have to go back to Robert Griffin III in 2011 and then maybe Reggie Bush in 2005 before that for players with the top odds in Vegas to actually win the Heisman.
Point being, we tend to nitpick the favorite to death. One bad game or one loss definitely hurts the favorite more than others.
Secondly, while Jeudy is arguably the most high profile skill position player between the two schools I do feel like Etienne (better odds!) is capable of stealing votes from his quarterback, and maybe more importantly, the emerging story line of Clemson with a whole pack of alien receivers could end up hurting Trevor Lawrence. The same could be said about Alabama’s receivers but I think that was more of a story line most of last year for the Tide while Clemson’s receivers really hit the national spotlight late in the season during the playoffs and will continue into 2019.
Thirdly, the “comeback” story line for Tua (which does feel a bit silly for Alabama) is going to be tough to overcome for other players. In fact, I’d say as long as the Tide remain unbeaten the Heisman is going to Tua, no doubt. We could see Lawrence with 25% better stats and I’m not sure it will matter if both programs are undefeated, especially as Tua will have a tougher schedule and more prime time games.
College football can get super weird, no doubt. I’m also inclined to take the over on 25.5 wins for Alabama and Clemson through conference championship weekend. Neither Tua or Lawrence winning the Heisman would feel like a major upset in a way that hasn’t happened in a long time. We are conditioned to see a surprise or two emerging every season.
The rest of the list below the top two does feel particularly uninspiring. Justin Fields to this point is merely recruiting hype and being quarterback at Ohio State which isn’t the same as being plugged into Oklahoma’s system.
I don’t have a problem with picking Hurts or Fromm. Those are solid choices from teams who could be squarely in the National Championship hunt.
All of the running backs feel like an obvious stay away situation. Taylor is only a junior and the fatigue is real with him being a finalist twice already. Etienne is a special talent but it’s difficult to see him improving upon an insanely efficient 2018 or out-shining all of his teammates. I could see Swift out-shining Fromm in Georgia’s system so maybe he’s worth placing some money if Georgia makes the playoffs. Still, he was 50th in total rushing yards last year and while he’s definitely very good this is a system pick as much as anything.
Go ahead and cross off Patterson and Kendall, the latter especially feels like a bizarre inclusion from Las Vegas sportsbooks. A quarterback with 39 career passing attempts who just transferred to a new school with a new coach? That seems incredibly unlikely, or maybe this is the out of nowhere pick Vegas is pointing toward for everyone?
The best value overall for me goes to Herbert and Ehlinger (you could throw Book in there too). Both are primed for big statistical seasons with a lot of the offense resting on their shoulders. They are both in line to play in their conference championship games, too. One step up into a playoff contender and these quarterbacks will be squarely in the Heisman race into November.
An official shout out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wow, I’m so honored. I have so many people to thank.
Yeah yeah, just tell us who you like for this year already 🙂
Just wait for those sweet commissions to kick in over the years.
Do you think Tua will get any residual love from the fact his season last year would have been the best in the history of CFB, if it weren’t for Murray? I would be OK with Tua sitting out this entire season, and still winning the Heisman because of last year.
Also, Tua was a way better QB than Lawrence over the course of the season. His passing numbers were almost identical to Murray’s (best in the history of CFB), while Lawrence’s Comp%, Y/A, and Rating were about the same as Book’s (TL had much better TD/INT). I think Lawrence benefits a lot from his pro prospectness (basically for being 5″ taller than Tua).
Lawrence’s efficiency numbers were similar to Tua’s freshman season, but with a much larger sample size. So maybe he is able to make a jump, and I suspect Tua to regress in his numbers, but it is still a huge jump. Admittedly, I can’t figure out why his rating is so similar to Book given he had a 30/4 TD/INT vs 19/7. I guess because of Maths.
The main aspect against Tua to me is Saban. He seems very intent on buzzwords like “culture” and team accolades over individual this year to reverse what he sees as throwing them off course. I could see him either running a lot when up in games or not allowing Tua to put up the video game numbers required to be in the Heisman convo these days.
IMO, I like Lawrence’s potential a lot for what he did as a true freshman and the fact he’s got weapons. But like Eric said wire-to-wire winners aren’t typical.
So if Lawrence is +175 to win can I get the field against Lawrence for -225 or something?
I think our gambling expert Zibby needs to help you with that one.
I think the two best bets if you’re trying to make some real money are Herbert and Patterson… but I’d be shocked if it’s anybody other than Tua or Lawrence.
However, the best bet in all of Vegas is figuring out a way to short Nebraska, who is currently allegedly 6-1 odds to make the playoff: https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1150504479583875072.
Michigan at 9/4 is lol’able too. Big fan bases that bet a lot can skew the lines. It’s not who is most likely to make playoffs, it’s Vegas hedging against the bets they’re taking in to stay profitable. I wish there was a way to short either of them allowed in sports betting. Just have to find some Neb/Mich fans to take their money like Vegas is now.
Baylor at 20/1 is cracking me up too. Are there a bunch of Christians out there throwing all of their money on a team that might not have been one of the 80 best in the country last year? Maybe some people in bunkers in Waco with nothing else to spend their money on?
Michigan at 9/4 is plenty realistic. Phil Steele has them at #3 (and Phil Steele is based on likelihood of finish); FPI has them as #5; and February S&P+ has them at #9 (the latter two are based on anticipated strength only). So it’s a clear top-10 team with a schedule that would allow one loss but still to make the playoff, assuming they win the Big Ten – and maybe even if not, depending on how it shakes out.
Yes, yes, Harbaugh hasn’t even won his own division yet, but based on other message board commentary I think the ND fanbase is underselling this Michigan team and significantly overselling our chances of winning in AA, at least as of how things stand in early August.
Nebraska, on the other hand, is S&P+ preseason #45.
Nebraska is way more laughable, but I’m selling on Michigan having the third best odds in the whole country to make the playoff. Like you mention, their QB and coach have a history of folding against solid opponents. I didn’t make that comment in conjunction to the ND/UM game, I was only focused on the season at large for Michigan, which I find them as likely to finish 3rd in their division as they are to win it.
Phil Steele didn’t predict the non-Clemson/Bama playoff teams last summer (he had Washington and tOSU) so there’s that too.
OK, fair enough; I’d certainly prefer OU at 7/2 than Michigan at 9/4, and I’d probably take OU over Michigan at even odds. But I think that just means Michigan should be the 4th most likely team to make the playoffs instead of the 3rd.
Really love the call on Herbert. Gets a chance to really make an attention-grabbing statement Week 1, then can put up huge numbers all season against the weak PAC12 defenses. I don’t think Oregon will end up being good enough for him to win it, but that’s definitely the best value pick I see.