2019 NFL Mock Draft: Buy or Sell

Within seconds of the 2018 NFL Draft finishing the mad rush for 2019 mock drafts flooded our lives. This is the 24/7/365 swirling world of college and professional football. Throwing out a mock so early is part fun and part hilarious. I looked at CBS Sports’ Will Brinson’s recent effort as the launching pad for discussion on players to buy or sell in the first round 11+ months before the big show.

BUY

Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

In a defensive line heavy mock drafts from all across the country Bosa is legitimately worthy of being the No. 1 overall selection. The competition for top D-lineman is going to be fierce but he checks most of the boxes. He has the bloodlines, plays at a major power, and has been super productive early in his career. He’s the type of player who test so-so in off-season workouts but most NFL personnel types are going to love him too much to care.

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford

Admittedly this could be a tall task–all Love has to do is stay healthy and he has a very good shot at being a first round selection and even the first running back off the board. You could make the case that Christian McCaffrey–who went 8th overall in the 2017 Draft–has already been converted into a receiver-sometimes-tailback and Love has more pure running back talent, skill, and speed.

Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

Notre Dame hasn’t had a defensive lineman picked in the first round in 20 years. Clemson is projected to have 4 of their players go in the first round which really doesn’t seem crazy. The Irish program has to go back to Ross Browner in the 1978 Draft to get to 4 selections in the first round from this position. Ferrell gets overshadowed a little bit which is absurd for someone coming off 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.

Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia

Like many, I was so impressed with the Dawgs defense up close last year and Baker could’ve come out last year following his junior campaign and from all accounts he would’ve been a high pick. With another year learning from Kirby Smart give me all the stock in Baker being one of the top corners and a first round selection.

SELL

Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina

This looks and smells like your typical mock draft reach based on potential. Samuel missed most of last year with a broken leg and currently has 86 career receptions to his name. He’s an elite college receiver with major impact ability in the run game and special teams, I’m just not sure he’s quite up to par with the receivers we typically see going in the first round.

Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

It feels like 5 years ago that Oliver began his college career. He still has another full season at Houston to get through! That’s my only concern, honestly. I don’t know if he’ll be a workout warrior but he set the bar so high in 2016 that we could see his production and impact regress in each of his last 2 seasons. He’s like the lock Top 5 pick who came back for another year, except it’s going to be 2 years. He should still be a Top 15 pick but I’ll sell him being in the Top 5 like many think.

Anthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo

Right now, the 2019 receiver crop looks really, really weak. That could open the door to Johnson (2nd nationally in receiving yardage per game last year) to sneak into the first round although 10th overall is ridiculously high. We very rarely see non-Power 5 wideouts drafted in the first round and especially not in the first half of the first round.

Ryan Finley, QB, NC State

This quarterback class is looking wretched at the moment which could lead to some big time reaches by NFL clubs this time next year. There’s nothing about Finley that says first round quarterback, though. He’s a nice college quarterback with a decent set of skills. He’s not productive enough or naturally skilled enough to walk into the Combine and blow scouts away. Sell all day.

By | 2018-05-09T22:25:18+00:00 May 9th, 2018|Football|13 Comments

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13 Comments on "2019 NFL Mock Draft: Buy or Sell"

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nd09hls12

Hard disagree on Oliver. He was, one of the, if not the best player in his conference from his first game as a true freshman. I think he’ll be the best player in college football next year – particularly when you factor in that he’ll look insanely good against a lower level of competition (as he has from the beginning). Very much agree on the other “sells”, though.

To tie to ND: I’m not sure we are going to have a guy picked in the first or second round next year. Tillery seems like the most likely, but he’d have to have a very good year. This is one of the reasons I can’t get too excited about preseason S&P saying we’re top-10 – I’m not sure we have any elite athletes (sorry Julian Love) who also are very good football players (sorry Alize) in either the senior or junior classes.

hooks orpik
hooks orpik

9 corners were taken in Rounds 1 and 2 this year, I would think Love cracks that if he has another strong season. NFL loves some corners, if K. Russell goes in the 3rd I’d say Love would be valued higher.

Tranquill and Coney may not be “elite athletes” but they will be very, very good college players next year. Wouldn’t be terribly shocking if Bars or Mustipher got drafted high, NFL draft also loves Irish o-lineman, and there were 8 C/G drafted in the first two rounds this year, seems like another shift to emphasize drafting interior linemen higher than past years when that was considered unnecessary.

So I mean if you’d give me a 0.5 over/under on ND players taken in Rounds 1-2, I’d take the over. Love, Tillery, Bars, Mustipher, Coney, hell even Mack, someone probably will hit. Before Mack is laughed off, Troy freakin Niklas was a 2nd round pick, the NFL is a crazy and imperfect system and they treasure measurables and upside, two items in large supply for Mack.

I do agree with you on Oliver, I see him as a sure-fire top pick next year unless something unforeseen happens.

nd09hls12

I think that’s all correct – if you the over/under line were .5, I’d probably take the over as well for the reason you listed (*somebody* has to have that good of a season, we’d hope), but taking the under on 1.5 would be a lot easier than taking the over on .5.

Just to clarify since I got a downvote: I think the team will be pretty good next year! I just don’t think we’ll be a legit national title contender, because of that lack of elite talent on the team and among upperclassmen in particular. Basically, I think it will be a pretty similar team next year to this past year, which is pretty good for a team that lost two top-10 picks. But I’d be shocked if we’re the 7th best team in the country or better.

hooks orpik
hooks orpik

I didn’t downvote you (for the record!) and don’t really disagree with your thought process on the draft picks, that’s just factual really that there aren’t nearly as good of draft prospects this year as there was last year.

For the second thought, it would depend on what’s considered a “legit national title contender”. The front-half of the season is pretty favorable compared to the travel/competition of the latter part. I think they could easily be a 6-1 team after Navy and relatively high (top 10ish) in the playoff rankings.

Not expecting perfection this year, but if Wimbush improves and the defense is as good as it should be, this could be a special team. I think it’ll be like the 3 of the last 4 years where they’ll be on the periphery of the playoff hunt (or even better) at some point in November, but probably lose a game and not be in contention to the bitter end. Don’t think too much of a stretch for another 10-3ish year, but without some good fortune and/or huge leap from Wimbush I don’t see them as a 11-1 type that will be a strong argument for true playoff team. Maybe a small step away, again.

Brendan R

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Brendan R

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