The Pac 12 is dangerously close to being eliminated after a momentous upset, and the Big 12 is alive thanks to a witches’ brew of good fortune and home cooking. It’s November, folks. Time to get weird… There were a bunch of stinker match-ups in the last couple of weeks, but with Rivalry Week upon us we’re going to get a much better slate this time around. I have a feeling that this could be a big week for movement on the big board.

Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and now include potential conference championship game participation. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s predictions over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.

Undefeated Teams

An undefeated Power 5 team will always control its own destiny. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today.

#1 Ohio State

This week: at #13 Michigan

Resume wins to date: vs. #19 Cincinnati, vs. #12 Wisconsin, vs. #10 Penn State

Possible resume wins: at #13 Michigan, vs. #8 Minnesota/#12 Wisconsin (Big Ten title game)

538 table-running probability: 56%

Ohio State did not play well at all, and they beat a top ten team by 11 points. Yikes. LSU has a more top-heavy resume, but nobody in college football has been as dominant as the Buckeyes this year. They’ll look to reassert that dominance this week against Michigan in one of the week’s biggest games; the big question is whether their lackluster performance against Penn State was a result of looking ahead to this game or if there’s a late-season slide happening. I’m not sure I’ve ever wanted Ohio State to blow someone out as much as I do this week, which makes me feel dirty, but that’s what showers and offseasons are for.

#2 LSU

This week: vs. Texas A&M

Resume wins to date: vs. #11 Florida, vs. #15 Auburn, #5 Alabama

Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Georgia (SEC title game)

538 table-running probability: 47%

LSU hammered Arkansas and then Coach O drove a stake through the heart of the barely-quivering corpse in his post-game press conference:

There wasn’t going to be a celebration for beating Arkansas, they haven’t beaten anyone in a long time.

Damn, Ed. That’s cold… They host Texas A&M this week with almost nothing on the line – if they lose they’ll still go to the SEC title game, and if they win that they’ll still be in the playoff. The only thing that would change is their seeding.

#3 Clemson

This week: at South Carolina

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #24 Virginia/NR Virginia (ACC title game)

538 table-running probability: 81%

Clemson was off last weekend, which was slightly more riveting than their recent slate of opponents. Or their entire slate of opponents, really. They can only play who’s in front of them, granted, but who’s in front of them has been pretty bad. Whether they knock off a moribund South Carolina this week or not, they’ll face the winner of the Virginia/Virginia Tech game for the ACC title the following week. Either team will be 9-3 and probably just barely ranked headed into that game, which would be Clemson’s first shot at a quality win this season. Ironically, the impending immolation would also likely push that team out of the rankings.

One Loss Teams

These teams aren’t out of it but (most) will need some breaks to fall their way. The time is getting short to get those breaks, though.

#4 Georgia

This week: at Georgia Tech

Resume wins to date: vs. #16 Notre Dame, vs. #11 Florida (neutral site), at #15 Auburn

Possible resume wins: vs. #2 LSU (SEC title game)

The one loss: at South Carolina

538 table-running probability: 43%

Another woefully mismatched SEC-ACC “rivalry” game. Georgia, like LSU and Clemson, will in the conference title game no matter what. So perhaps there’s some small chance of a letdown performance here, but Georgia Tech is so bad that I kind of doubt it. Georgia controls its destiny despite the loss and will cruise into conference championship weekend.

#5 Alabama

This week: at #15 Auburn

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #15 Auburn

538 table-running probability: 63%

The one loss: vs. #2 LSU

Yada yada, beat Western Carolina, whatever. Alabama has a glimmer of playoff hope alive. They would need help from some conference championship upsets – I expect the Pac 12 and Big 12 champs to jump them if all goes to chalk – but they’re not dead, so expect them to come into the Iron Bowl fully focused. However, with Tua out, Auburn has a golden opportunity to give Alabama their second Tiger-sourced loss of the season, and third of the calendar year. War Damn Eagle, folks.

#6 Utah

This week: at Arizona

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #14 Oregon (Pac 12 title game)

The one loss: at #22 USC

538 table-running probability: 49%

Arizona got throttled for the second straight week, first by Oregon, and even more convincingly this past weekend by Utah. I thought the Ducks were the true contender out west, but Utah is the team that looks like it’s on the rise right now. In fact, they’re one of only four teams in the country to rank in the top ten in SP+ offense (10th) and defense (7th). The other three? Ohio State (5th/1st), Alabama (3rd/6th), and Clemson (6th/3rd). Pretty good company. The Utes’ regular season is done and they already know they’ll face Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. Cheeseburger time.

#7 Oklahoma

This week: at #21 Oklahoma State

Resume wins to date: vs. #23 Iowa State, at #9 Baylor

Possible resume wins: at #21 Oklahoma State, vs. #9 Baylor (Big 12 title game)

The one loss: at Kansas State

538 table-running probability: 47%

A week after staging a furious rally to get past Baylor, the Sooners futzed around with a bad TCU team; they couldn’t ice it until the refs gifted them one of the worst spots I’ve ever seen and then held it up on replay. They’ve now won their last three games by a total – TOTAL – of 8 points, have played to a single-score result in five of their last six games, and are 4-1 in those five games.

This week they have Bedlam. In Stillwater. I’m not telling you to put money on it or anything, but an Okie State win would be one of the least surprising results of the weekend.

#8 Minnesota

This week: vs. #12 Wisconsin

Resume wins to date: vs. #10 Penn State

Possible resume wins: vs. #12 Wisconsin, vs. #1 Ohio State (Big Ten title game)

The one loss: at #17 Iowa

538 table-running probability: 8%

Quite a fortnight for the Gophers; they Rowed The Boat™ right up the back of Penn State, fell to a so-so Iowa team, then waxed the Fighting Fitzgeralds, who were spunky and hard-working but in a non-endearingly anachronistic kind of way. They host Wisconsin this week, with the winner earning the privilege (?) of facing Ohio State in Indianapolis for the conference title. I was surprised by their victory over Penn State, unsurprised by their falter against Iowa, and impressed by their workmanlike dispatching of Northwestern. They’re a slight underdog at home this week, which feels appropriate for how they’ve been viewed all season. Should be a good one.

#9 Baylor

This week: at Kansas

Resume wins to date: vs. #23 Iowa State, at #21 Oklahoma State

Possible resume wins:  vs. #7 Oklahoma (Big 12 title game)

The one loss: vs. #7 Oklahoma

538 table-running probability: 30%

Baylor sent the Texas fan base into an existential crisis this week (not sure how being 6-4 heading into the weekend didn’t already do that, but whatevs). They have an extremely uphill climb to make the playoff at this point given where they’re ranked and that they have one last chance at a quality win, but they’re not dead yet. Could Alabama lose to Auburn and Utah lose to Oregon and Georgia lose to LSU? Sure! I think that’s the scenario they’d need to get in. We’ve seen wackier things. They head to a maybe-resurgent-but-maybe-not Kansas this week before their Big 12 title game rematch (so dumb) with Oklahoma.

Off the Board

#14 Oregon suffered a catastrophic loss to unranked Arizona State. They’ll still win the Pac 12 North and get a chance to go to the Rose Bowl, but their playoff dreams are as dead as Notre Dame’s now.