As we round the turn into the second half of the season, it’s time to revive the Playoff Big Board. Our board will consist of all ranked undefeated teams and all ranked one-loss Power 5 teams – first from the AP poll, then from the committee rankings when they’re available soon. I define “resume wins” for our purposes as wins over currently-ranked teams; it gets too complicated to project whether teams will drop out of or climb into the rankings as the year progresses.
Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and won’t include potential conference championship game participation until we get closer to that weekend – at this point, if a P5 team is still on the board they have a path to the conference title game. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s table over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.
Undefeated Teams
An undefeated team will generally control its own destiny, except of course for the Group of 5 teams. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today. Except of course for the Group of 5 teams (sorry guys).
#1 Alabama
This week: vs. Arkansas
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #2 LSU, at #9 Auburn
538 table-running probability: 28%
Alabama struggled for a bit with Tennessee before a 100-yard scoop-and-score midway through the fourth quarter effectively put the Vols to bed. The biggest news from the game is that they lost Tua Tagoivaloa for a couple of weeks to a bad ankle sprain. If his absence bleeds into the LSU game…
#2 LSU
This week: vs. #9 Auburn
Resume wins to date: vs. #7 Florida, at #15 Texas
Possible resume wins: vs. #9 Auburn, at #1 Alabama
538 table-running probability: 13%
I get that there’s some inertia built up over the last decade, but even so, I’m not sure why LSU is behind Alabama – they clearly have a much better resume to date. I’m willing to bet that if they knock off Auburn this week that relationship will flip.
#3 Ohio State
This week: vs. #13 Wisconsin
Resume wins to date: vs. #18 Cincinnati
Possible resume wins: vs. #13 Wisconsin, vs. #6 Penn State, at #19 Michigan
538 table-running probability: 37%
Ohio State went to Chicago and dropped their fifth 40-point win of the season on Pat Fitzgerald’s totally not online Northwestern. They haven’t really been tested this year, as no opponent has gotten closer than 24 points; it’ll be interesting to see how a wounded and angry Wisconsin does against them.
#4 Clemson
This week: vs. Boston College
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #25 Wake Forest
538 table-running probability: 61%
Yeah, you’re reading that correctly. There’s a distinct possibility that Clemson will make it through the entire regular season – and maybe even the conference championship game – without a win over a ranked team. The Charmin-soft schedule plus a couple of uninspired performances, most notably a 21-20 defeat of North Carolina, have earned them some skeptics this year.
#5 Oklahoma
This week: at Kansas State
Resume wins to date: vs. #15 Texas (neutral site)
Possible resume wins: vs. #23 Iowa State, at #14 Baylor
538 table-running probability: 26%
The Sooners shook off the cobwebs from the Red River Shootout to destroy West Virginia, a game headlined by Jalen Hurts’s near-perfect performance (16/17 for 316 yards and 3 TDs, 10 carries for 75 yards and 2 TDs). Texas came close, but I’m not sure how many Big 12 teams can really slow down the Oklahoma offensive machine.
#6 Penn State
This week: at Michigan State
Resume wins to date: at #20 Iowa, vs. #19 Michigan
Possible resume wins: at #17 Minnesota, at #3 Ohio State
538 Table-Running Probability: 10%
It’s still hard to know how good Penn State is. Coming into last weekend they had dominated the bad teams on their schedule and posted one-score wins against the not-bad teams, Iowa and Pitt. 20 minutes in it looked like they were going to dominate Michigan, but that ended up a one-score game too. Still, they might be on cruise control until they head to Columbus.
#14 Baylor
This week: Off
Resume wins to date: vs. #23 Iowa State
Possible resume wins: vs. #5 Oklahoma, vs. #15 Texas
538 table-running probability: 5%
Do you remember two years ago, when Baylor went 1-11 under new head coach Matt Rhule? How about last year, when they went 7-6 and it felt like a big achievement? Sitting at 7-0 this year with a win over a ranked team already in his pocket, we can safely say that Rhule is Doing Good Things™. They could well roll into that Oklahoma matchup 9-0 and in the top ten. Crazy.
#7 Minnesota
This week: vs. Maryland
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #6 Penn State, at #20 Iowa, vs. #13 Wisconsin
538 table-running probability: 1%
PJ Fleck also seems… to be… [gritting teeth] Doing Good Things™ in the Land of 1,000 Lakes. After a string of one-score games to open the year, they’ve won their last three, over Illinois, Nebraska, and Rutgers, by 23, 27, and 35 respectively. Hardly a murderer’s row, but still. They’ll have a bye next week and then welcome Penn State to town for their first serious test.
Group of 5 Teams
#16 SMU (8% chance to win out) and #21 Appalachian State (21% chance to win out) are hanging around with a sliver of hope to sneak into the playoff if total chaos reigns. Which it could! Neither has any resume wins or potential resume wins, but until they lose they’ll stay here. SMU travels to Houston this week while Appy heads to South Alabama.
One Loss Teams
These teams aren’t out of it but will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.
#7 Florida
This week: Off
Resume wins to date: vs. #9 Auburn
Possible resume wins: vs. #10 Georgia (neutral site)
The one loss: at #2 LSU
538 table-running probability: 8%
Florida wears the “best loss” crown for now, and can also claim a top ten win. For now… That clearly explains their status as the highest-ranked one-loss team. Unlike the team just behind them in the rankings, despite the loss they still definitely control their destiny – win out and win the SEC title game, and they’re in. They get a week to prepare for the Cocktail Party.
#8 Notre Dame
This week: at #19 Michigan
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #19 Michigan
The one loss: at #10 Georgia
538 table-running probability: 31%
Florida controls their destiny. Notre Dame does not, at least not at the moment – the softer-than-expected schedule means the Irish have very limited chances to make an impression this year. One of those opportunities withered away between the hedges in Athens in September. This weekend may be Notre Dame’s last chance for a statement win this season. Buckle up.
#9 Auburn
This week: at #2 LSU
Resume wins to date: vs. #11 Oregon (neutral site)
Possible resume wins: at #2 LSU, vs. #10 Georgia, vs. #1 Alabama
The one loss: at #7 Florida
538 table-running probability: 8%
Purely from a resume standpoint, it’s hard to explain why Auburn should be ranked behind Notre Dame. From an eye-test standpoint, there’s a decent chance they’ll end up ranked well below how it looks like they’ve played given how brutal their schedule is; they could legitimately be a very good team and still go 8-4. Nonetheless, for now, they also control their own destiny.
#10 Georgia
This week: Off
Resume wins to date: #8 Notre Dame
Possible resume wins: vs. #7 Florida (neutral site), at #9 Auburn
The one loss: at South Carolina
538 table-running probability: 8%
Georgia has one of the best wins in the country this year but also one of the worst losses of the second-tier playoff contenders, looking listless and disjointed throughout in an overtime loss to 3-4 South Carolina. It took them a long time to put away Kentucky last weekend too. They still control their path but there are major questions swirling as they move through their bye week.
#11 Oregon
This week: vs. Washington State
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #24 Arizona State
The one loss: vs. #9 Auburn (neutral site)
538 table-running probability: 25%
Oregon rallied in the fourth quarter against Washington to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They might end up with no regular-season quality wins, which will hurt their resume big time, but per 538 they have the second-highest chance of running the table out of the one-loss Power 5 teams. So hope, like the Dude, abides.
#12 Utah
This week: vs. Cal
Resume wins to date: vs. #24 Arizona State
Possible resume wins: None
The one loss: at USC
538 table-running probability: 16%
Utah has beaten up on everyone they’ve played, except of course for a USC team that was reeling after a loss to BYU. A road trip to Washington in a couple of weeks is probably going to be their last chance to impress anyone in the regular season.
#13 Wisconsin
This week: at #3 Ohio State
Resume wins to date: vs. #19 Michigan
Possible resume wins: at #3 Ohio State, vs. #20 Iowa, at #17 Minnesota
The one loss: at Illinois
538 table-running probability: 5%
Remember what I said about Georgia and their loss? I take it back. Wisconsin has the worst loss of the second-tier contenders, falling to a bad Illinois team as a 31-point favorite. Yikes. Given the opponents left on their schedule plus a potential conference title game they could get back in the first tier, but that loss could be like Ohio State’s Purdue loss last year. It’s an albatross.
#25 Wake Forest
This week: Off
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #4 Clemson
538 table-running probability: 1%
Is it likely? No. Is it remotely probable? Nope. But Wake Forest is a one-loss Power 5 team and they’re (barely) ranked, so here they are on the Big Board. This is indeed the wildest timeline… Wake seems ripe for a second-half fade given (a) that they’ve been in five one-score games and (b) they’ve gone 4-1 in those games. Reversion to the mean feels like it’s lurking, but who knows.
Off the Board
#19 Michigan picked up a second conference loss at the hands of Penn State this week and has no realistic path to the conference title game at this point, let alone the playoff. Ahhhh.
#24 Arizona State was completely shut down by Utah, managing just 156 yards of total offense, and like Michigan has an uphill climb to the conference title game.
NR Boise State lost their slim chances of sneaking in when they fell to BYU this week. BYU, by the way, is a very puzzling team. They’ve beaten Boise and USC at home and Tennessee on the road; they’ve also lost to Toledo, who just lost to Ball State and Bowling green, and gotten hammered by Utah and Washington. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Thanks for doing all this work. This is a nice recap of the season so far and of what lies ahead.
If Alabama loses to LSU can they really get in the playoffs? Their schedule seems super weak this year for that to happen.
Well, they’ll still have the opportunity for a quality win against Auburn, there’s a chance someone else (A&M? Duke?) can climb back into the top 25, and they’re still Bama and will get a load of the benefit of the doubt.
So I think it’s possible, yeah. But they would definitely need help in that scenario.
I would lean towards a no because when the play Auburn it’s very possible and likely that Auburn is not a quality win any longer (4 losses, with a loss to Alabama being loss #5) and if LSU wins out they would not even make the SEC championship game.
I know they get the benefit of the doubt, but I just can’t see an Alabama with no SEC championship game appearance and their resume making the playoff. If they do, then we should be right in the conversation as well.
” I just can’t see an Alabama with no SEC championship game appearance and their resume making the playoff”
2017 Bama that didn’t play in the SEC title game but made playoff says hi. They beat a then #3 FSU in Week 1, who ended up 7-6 and then a couple of 9-4 teams (LSU, Miss St) and no one else, losing to the best team they played in the reg season in Auburn.
The only way this would happen would be like a 2-loss Wisconsin or 2-loss Texas or 2-loss Pitt/UVA team ending up a conference champion, IMO. Bama at 11-1 would probably get in if Oklahoma and/or Ohio State and/or Clemson messed up.
Very true. I just think it unlikely. I’m seeing Ohio St., Clemson, and Oklahoma all very possibly going undefeated and then if LSU wins out and makes the SEC championship and they win or lose that would be your 4 teams.
Of course that is a lot of what ifs, but that the fun part!
Also, that Alabama team was fortunate that even though they didn’t end up making the SEC championship game, Auburn ended up with 3 losses after the SEC champ game and couldn’t be in the playoffs.
In my thinking and original comment I have LSU going undefeated and that to me would be the biggest difference.
It’s fun to ponder. I would think LSU goes 13-0 clean sweep helps Bama if they’re 11-1 with an only loss to LSU. This would mean UF falls a second time, Bama knocks out Auburn. And Bama now has the “better loss” than UGA even if they go 11-1 as well. So in this scenario, Bama at 11-1 and LSU 13-0 means Bama is the SEC #2 best shape team, and it feels like the committee really just looks for excuses to let 2 SEC teams in every year.
At this point Bama wouldn’t need too much chaos to get in top-4, though they would probably need 2/3 of tOSU, Oklahoma, Clemson to fall. I agree with your earlier comment that it doesn’t seem likely, but who knows. It seemed inconceivable Wisconsin would lose to Illinois (or tOSU would lose to Purdue in the past) but crazy stuff can happen.
To think all the top teams are going to hold serve for half a year (when Clemson looks vulnerable) only takes one slip to really open it up. If there are 4 undefeated P5 champs, yeah Bama’s out of luck if they lose a game….But when has there ever been 4 undefeated P5 champs? History tells us at least one of them is going to slip.
We’ve had five playoffs now and only one had two SEC teams. I don’t think there’s an SEC-loving conspiracy there. An Alabama-loving conspiracy? Maybe, but that’s not unique to the committee by any means. They’ve been getting the benefit of the doubt from everyone for the last decade.
That’s what I think of every time I see the idiotic argument that ND shouldn’t make the playoff because they’re not in a conference. Also, wasn’t 2016 Ohio State a playoff team that didn’t win the Big Ten?
If Alabama loses to LSU without Tua I think that will matter to the committee
I kind of want to see Clemson go undefeated and miss out on the playoffs… unfortunately the only way I see that happening is with 2 SEC teams getting in (+Okla and OSU) which makes me less interested in such a scenario.
Also if Clemson get’s left out of the playoff, we likely have to play them in the Orange Bowl (assuming we win out)
I wasn’t that impressed with Penn St Saturday night. I feel without 3 shoddy calls Saturday they lose to Michigan. I also find myself thinking Notre Dame has more of a chance to lose to Michigan than I did before last Saturday? Am I overreacting? Also, I think there is a very good chance Michigan State beats Penn St in East Lansing this week. Sparty usually gets that one win a year nobody sees coming and Penn St usually plays poorly against them