Aaaaaand… We’re back, folks! It’s been a loooong [checks calendar] eight months without college football. We’re maybe not better than ever after the schlock-fest that opened the season this past weekend. (Can we really consider what Florida and Miami did “football”? And how on earth did Hawaii go -4 on turnover margin and still beat Arizona?) But we most definitely are back, and that’s worth celebrating. The last we saw our plucky Irish lads, they took their 12-0 record into the national semifinal game, played gamely for about 20 minutes, Julian Love got hurt, and three months of work unraveled in ten minutes of game clock. That’s the bad news. Well, we lost some key guys, including Love, which is a little more bad news. Oh, and this is probably our toughest road schedule since… 1989, maybe? That year included trips to Ann Arbor, State College, and Coral Gables, with mixed results. This year includes trips to Athens, Ann Arbor, and Palo Alto, with considerable potential for mixed results.
How’s that for a pep talk, fellas?
Before you jump of the ledge, though, consider this: There’s plenty of cause for optimism too. One of the top QBs in the country returns. Almost the entire offensive line returns, and the one new guy is probably a substantial upgrade athletically. The skill positions are loaded with athletes. The defense boasts arguably the best defensive end tandem and best safety tandem in the country, and there’s a freshman safety who’s so good he’s going to force his way on the field anyway. The top corner is coming off a season where people went after him and he gave up one score, on the final drive of the regular season, and will probably run around or under a 4.3 40 at the NFL combine next spring. By all accounts the roster is faster and more athletic top to bottom since the Vinny Cerrato days. Hope survives!
So, with all that said, let’s get into the predictions. I promise nobody here has his finger on the scale; in fact we banished nd-atl to the timeout room once again, just to be safe. Last we saw of him he was holding a crayon in his toes and writing “CLOUSEAU” on the wall over and over, which is kind of weird, but anyway.
Big Picture Stuff
What will Notre Dame’s 2018 regular season record be?
- 12-0 – 4%
- 11-1 – 29%
- 10-2 – 50%
- 9-3 – 16%
- 8-4 – 1%
- 7-5 or worse – Blutarski
In 2017, 28% of you picked 10-2 or better. Last year, it was 62%. This year, a whopping 83% of you picked a (likely) top-ten quality season as your predicted outcome. Wow. The bar has been raised, it would seem. Of course, that means the bar for what it would take to lose our collective [censored] has been lowered as well. Drama!
The staff is similarly bullish, for what it’s worth, with 90% of us choosing 10-2 or better and 35% calling 11-1 or 12-0.
Everybody liked Flounder, right? Right??
What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?
- Challenging road slate – 30%
- Inside linebackers – 26%
- Run game consistency – 11%
- Run game explosiveness – 10%
- Interior defensive line – 8%
- Passing game explosiveness – 5%
- Whoever plays opposite Troy Pride – 4%
- Offensive line play – 4%
- Placekicking – 2%
- Brian Kelly – 1%
- Stopping the run – < 1%
Not surprisingly, the staff’s two main concerns – the road slate (30%) and the inside linebackers (20%) – mirrored yours. This is as tough a road schedule as the Irish have faced in a long time, and we have precious little clarity on the second level of the defense. Those are the kinds of things that make people worry. Interestingly, the staff was far more concerned about CB2 than you (which is what “whoever plays opposite Troy Pride” means – my apologies to anyone who thought it was the opposing WR), with 15% of staff votes to make it our third highest concern.
You provided only one write-in, stopping the run, but I’m willing to guess most of the people who voted for interior DL or inside LBs were of the same mind. The staff provided two write-ins – facing so many teams coming off a bye, and game snacks. I can’t see who put individual votes in, but I’m pretty sure “game snacks” came from a Rigney.
Finally, Kelly has indeed rehabbed his reputation over the last couple of seasons; in 2017 10% of you listed him as your main concern, and last year 3% of you did the same. Saints be praised.
Talk of concern invites stress. The Irish deal with stress by… Well, you’ve been there. You know.
Superlatives
Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?
- Ian Book – 77%
- Chase Claypool – 15%
- Offensive line – 4%
- Chris Finke – 3%
- Jafar Armstrong – 1%
- Tony Jones, Kyren Williams – < 1%
So, interesting vote for Kyren Williams here. I won’t be dismissive of it because I thought the 3% who tabbed Ian Book last year were nuts, but I’ll just note that it’s interesting. Book dominated this year’s vote and rightfully so, as the Irish offensive fortunes will likely be determined at his hand to a significant extent. 85% of the staff chose Book and the other 15% chose Claypool. Sorry, other dudes.
Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?
- Julian Okwara – 61%
- Alohi Gilman – 24%
- Khalid Kareem – 12%
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – 1%
- Kyle Hamilton – 1%
- Troy Pride, Jalen Elliott, Shaun Crawford – < 1%
A little less decisive than the last item, but Okwara still runs away with this one. And again the staff is of a similar mind, with 60% picking Swaggy J and 25% taking Gilman. And one vote for Jay Bramblett, which I’m pretty sure again is a Rigney. Those guys.
We discussed this briefly in the writers’ room, but it’s also very interesting to me that Owusu-Koramoah and Hamilton, two guys who haven’t seen a single snap of live action yet, garnered more votes than two highly-regarded entrenched starters and one star-crossed but gamebreaking vet. Like with Kyren Williams, I’m not going to say those are bad votes, it’s just interesting.
Which unit will provide the play of the year?
- Defense – 48%
- Offense – 48%
- Special Teams – 3%
Balance any coach would be envious of. I lean towards the offense myself, as I expect some pyrotechnics, but who knows. It’s worth noting here that a few different perspectives bubbled up last year about how to answer this question. I meant it then and now in the sense of “most exciting play,” while some voters reasonably considered it in the sense of “most impactful play.” For example, one of our readers – I can’t remember who, my apologies – said at the end of the year that his choice for play of the year was Jalen Elliott’s fourth down PBU against Vandy to secure that game. Didn’t seem like much at the time, but in hindsight it was huge in preserving the 12-0 regular season. One thing that this vote brings to the forefront is that the units themselves are very balanced; I think the offense and defense have a chance to be equally excellent this year if just a few small things fall into place for each.
Vegas loves the action here.
Who will lead the team in receptions?
- Chase Claypool – 66%
- Chris Finke – 31%
- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ – 3%
I really should’ve put the shruggy guy on the next question, because the odds of the team receptions leader being someone other than these two (assuming health) are close to nil. Claypool beat Finke by a single reception last year, but seems poised to assume a Boykin-plus role in the offense this year. Practice reports have specifically highlighted the chemistry that he and Book have developed on back-shoulder throws, and even some of the more phlegmatic Irish observers have noted a certain Floydian look to Claypool’s play. So my money’s on the Canuck.
The staff once again split similarly, with 55% choosing Claypool and 40% Finke.
Who will lead the team in touchdowns?
- Claypool – 49%
- Armstrong – 37%
- Jones – 8%
- Finke – 5%
- Kmet, Book, Hamilton – < 1%
This is a tough call. In Chip Long’s two seasons at the helm of the Irish offense, a runner has rather decisively held this lead – Wimbush and Dexter were each +5 over the next guy, and in Wimbush’s case the next guy was a runner too. (Josh Adams, if you were wondering.) That would perhaps lead you to lean toward RB1, but there isn’t really an RB1 this year, and Claypool looks dominant. But Long likes to lean on a lead RB. So… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (See?? Totally screwed that one up.)
I voted for Armstrong but I can’t argue with Claypool here. The staff’s top four choices again mirrored yours, with no write-in on our side.
Who will have the third-most RB carries?
- Kyren Williams – 56%
- Jahmir Smith – 39%
- C’Bo Flemister – 5%
You have to think that Armstrong and Jones will be the clear 1-2 guys in the backfield. Who is 1 and who is 2 will probably be fluid, but they seem to be heavy favorites to be the top two. Whither RB3 plaudits, then? A month ago I would’ve said Smith, but then he broke his hand and Williams came on strong to build on an impressive spring debut. Folks, we have a true battle on our hands.
If you haven’t kept up with practice reports, btw, perhaps one of the most fun notes is that we’ve run some plays with Armstrong, Jones, and Williams all on the field at the same time, with Armstrong and Williams moving around between the slot and the backfield.
The staff voted, boringly, the same here again, with 60% tabbing the frosh, 25% the soph, and 15% the All-Time All-Name Team member.
Who will have the second-most CB snaps?
- Donte Vaughn – 45%
- Shaun Crawford – 31%
- Houston Griffith – 13%
- Tariq Bracy – 11%
A little bit of fuzziness introduced here by Crawford’s appearance at safety in camp – note that I only intended the question to refer to snaps taken at CB. Stupid coaches and their creativity… Vaughn’s early setback with some kind of quad issue clouded things, but later in camp a pecking order seemed to emerge. If I had to lay money now, it would be on Vaughn as a CB2A to Bracy’s CB2B, with Griffith filling out the back end of the two deep outside. I think Crawford will get plenty of time, but mostly at FS2 and nickel. Maybe!
We had Vaughn in the lead with 45% too, but we finally diverged from you a bit here. The staff has far more faith in Bracy than you do, it would seem, as in our vote he tied with Crawford at 25%.
Which freshman will make the biggest immediate impact?
- Kyle Hamilton – 95%
- I haven’t been reading camp reports so I don’t know how awesome Hamilton is – 5%
Well, if we can take nothing else away from this exercise, it’s that at least 5% of you are honest. Kudos.
Seriously, though… According to various reports, Hamilton had 17 interceptions and a few forced fumbles in camp, including one of fifth-year senior captain Finke that would’ve been an in-stride scoop and score. Regardless of who they came off or how, that’s incredible. He’s all over the field all the time and will certainly play an important role this fall.
There have been rumors of a dime package with Hamilton and Elliott at safety and Gilman as a sort of roving MLB with Owusu-Koromoah at rover. Separately, there has also been discussion of a dime package with a DL of Okwara, Kareem, Ogundeji, and Hayes. I’m getting excited, folks.
Still too reserved to accurately reflect my feelings.
Over/Under
4.5 wins in first 6 games (@ Louisville, New Mexico, @ Georgia, Virginia, Bowling Green, USC)
- Readers: 92% over, 8% under
- Staff: 95% over, 5% under
4.5 wins in final 6 games (@ Michigan, Virginia Tech, @ Duke, Navy, Boston College, @ Stanford)
- Readers: 82% over, 18% under
- Staff: 89% over, 11% under
Yes, I learned from setting this line at 5.0 last year. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW?!?!?!?
Anyway… Interesting that both you and we are marginally more confident on a front end that features Georgia and USC than a back end that features Michigan and Stanford. Certainly USC’s recent foibles plus that game being at home help lessen the fear factor, but I still thought the Georgia half would engender less confidence.
Mark it down now in pen, Sharpie, paint, whatever you want, because I’m not worried about it coming back to bite me in the posterior: We’re going to obliterate Stanford this year.
The douchy Stanford band finally gets its comeuppance.
32 team sacks (Last season: 34)
- Readers: 85% over, 15% under
- Staff: 95% over, 5% under
75 tackles for loss (last season: 78)
- Readers: 64% over, 36% under
- Staff: 50% over, 50% under
10 interceptions gained (last season: 12)
- Readers: 64% over, 36% under
- Staff: 70% over, 30% under
I decided to group these disruption stats together because they more or less tell the same story. I used BK-era averages for the last two surveys, but it’s quite clear that those are silly for the Elko/Lea defense – this new, um, competent approach blew the previous Kelly-era averages out of the water in both seasons. So now I’m comparing it to itself. Sui generis, indeed.
I set slightly conservative lines compared to last year’s performance for a reason. Given the heavy action on the over here, we all seem fairly confident that this year’s defense will be at least as productive in these areas as last year’s, despite losing four excellent players and one very solid one (Tillery, Love, Coney, Tranquill, and Bonner). In years past even I would find that overly rosy, but I agree that things feel different now. The roster has far more depth and especially athleticism than I can remember in the Kelly era at least. The transitions this year aren’t of the Te’o-to-Calabrese nature.
1.5 non-offense touchdowns (BK avg: 2.2)
- Readers: 83% over, 17% under
- Staff: 84% over, 16% under
I actually took the under here, as conservative as the line may seem. The BK average is somewhat inflated by performance earlier in his tenure, particularly regarding kick return success. There have been just four non-offense touchdowns in the last three seasons combined, and all of them came courtesy of players who are no longer here – two by Julian Love and two by CJ Sanders. So while I’d love to be wrong on this one, I suspect we’ll hit the under this year. Still, I respect your optimism, dear readers.
Long field goal of 44.5 yards
- Readers: 35% over, 65% under
- Staff:55% over, 45% under
Divergence! Jon Doerer’s consistency is probably one of the most enigmatic topics of the offseason. I think it’s very safe to say that we’ll see a decline in field goal percentage from Justin Yoon, who is the program’s all-time record holder by a large margin. We’ll probably also see Kelly go for it on fourth down more often. At the same time, Doerer does have a very strong leg and he’ll probably get a shot from this distance at some point. We shall see.
Polian as Otter: “Don’t think of it as work. The whole point is just to enjoy yourself.”
Long punt of 54.5 yards
- Readers: 34% over, 66% under
- Staff: 45% over, 55% under
This is another one that I think could happen, and in fact I took the over here. Bramblett has a pretty good leg and really started to settle in late in fall camp. All it takes is one boomer with a bit of a roll and he’ll get it.
3.5 kickoff returns past own 40 (last season: 2, with one called back for penalty)
- Readers: 24% over, 76% under
- Staff: 10% over, 90% under
😢
5.5 punt returns of 10+ yards (last season: 5)
- Readers: 51% over, 49% under
- Staff: 30% over, 70% under
Finke was responsible for all five last year and he’s back this year. I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll see a bit of an uptick this year, but, as we’ve highlighted before, with rules changes the days of a Tim-Brown-like punt return game are all but gone.
10.5 offensive possessions vs. Navy (11+ generally indicates a blowout)
- Readers: 71% over, 29% under
- Staff: 85% over, 15% under
An experienced, efficient offense against a rice-paper defense, and a hyper-athletic defense against the worst Navy passing offense in my recollection. Good call, folks.
Coach Sweep-the-Leg pleading with his charges. (A double insult, because this is an Army guy. Savage!)
3,500 passing yards by Ian Book (last season: 2,615 in his 9 starts)
- Readers: 57% over, 43% under
- Staff: 65% over, 35% under
Another one that’s perhaps a bit misleading prima facie, but many of you saw past it… At first glance, the gap between 3,500 and 2,615 seems rather large, which may have led some of you to instinctively choose the under. However, when you do the math, last season’s performance works out to about 290 yards per start; if you assume 13 starts for Book this year at an equivalent effectiveness level, that would result in 3,770 yards. So the heart of this question is two-fold: (a) Do you think Book will be as good as he was last year? (b) Do you think he’ll start 13 games? I think the answer to (a) is no, he’ll be better. The answer to (b) is… man, I hope so.
800 total yards by Jafar Armstrong (last season: 542 in 10 games)
- Readers: 67% over, 33% under
- Staff: 90% over, 10% under
Armstrong’s usage faded last season after his knee infection; he came back and was of course a significant part of the offense, but not to the degree he had been earlier in the season. So this is again partly a health projection, partly a backfield time-share projection, and partly a versatility projection. Camp reports have Armstrong moving into the slot frequently, and in fact in the last open practice he caught two deep post touchdowns from there. If you believe he can hold up, the over seems very much within reach.
70 receptions by Chase Claypool (last season: 50)
- Readers: 53% over, 47% under
- Staff: 55% over, 45% under
60 receptions by Chris Finke (last season: 49)
- Readers: 63% over, 37% under
- Staff: 70% over, 30% under
40 receptions by running backs (last season: 37)
- Readers: 85% over, 15% under
- Staff: 90% over, 10% under
I was a little surprised by the results here; even if you think we’re going to pass more often this year this is still a bit of a zero-sum game, especially if you think Cole Kmet is going to end up a bigger factor in the offense than Alize Mack was last year. So I guess the takeaway is that the vast majority of you think we’re going to chuck it all over the place this season.
That should go over well with everyone in the fan base, I’m sure.
13.5 sacks by Julian Okwara (last season: 8.0; his stated goal: 18.5; school record: 13.5, Justin Tuck, 2003)
- Readers: 52% over, 48% under
- Staff: 55% over, 45% under
I think he’s going to pull off the school record. Not sure about his own goal, but he had those 8 last year and supposedly he and Elston identified at least half of his 21 pressures that “should” have been sacks. He’s absolutely convinced that he can pull it off. And, hey, who of us is ready to argue with him?
Trust us, you don’t want to annoy Julian. It never ends well.
13.5 havoc plays generated by Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah (Elko-Lea FBS average: 12.2)
- Readers: 44% over, 56% under
- Staff: 40% over, 60% under
“Havoc” is an S&P+ term that I’ve fudged a bit for these purposes. The estimable Bill Connelly counts passes defensed (broken up + interceptions), tackles for loss, and forced fumbles as havoc. He then calculates a havoc rate per defensive level – so how much of a team’s havoc is caused by the DL, the LBs, and the DBs. That gives a sense of a team’s defensive personality.
Connelly doesn’t include QB pressures because, in his words, “there is far too much inconsistency in how they are recorded.” For our purposes here, I did included pressures. So that’s what we’re talking about. In the two years of the Elko/Lea defense at Notre Dame, Drue Tranquill had 18.5 havoc plays as 2017’s rover and Asmar Bilal had 6.0 as 2018’s rover (with very different responsibilities). I think Wu is going to be more Tranquill than Bilal, but we’ll see.
1.5 interceptions by Kyle Hamilton
- Readers: 59% over, 41% under
- Staff: 70% over, 30% under
The more camp reports I read, the more I thought I set this line too low. Wait, I’m not supposed to say that… I mean, we’re just hoping all the freshmen can get acclimated, nothing really to report there, nothing remarkable or generational happening, honest…
3.5 single-score margin games
- Readers: 65% over, 35% under
- Staff: 68% over, 32% under
S&P+ expects this to be even more lopsided. According to its preseason projections, only two games are expected to be within a single score: It favors Michigan by 5 and has Stanford as a 6.6 point dog. It favors Georgia by 14, while the rest of its projections favor the Irish by anywhere from 11 (USC) to 41 (Navy). The average margin for all games is +16, which if it holds would lead to comfortably the most positive differential of the Kelly era, but the expected record is 9-3. Weird year.
2.5 meaningful appearances by Phil Jurkovec
- Readers: 17% over, 83% under
- Staff: 25% over, 75% under
Let’s hope.
3.5 games played by Kevin Austin
- Readers: 82% over, 18% under
- Staff: 50% over, 50% under
Yeah, we’re a little more down on this one… Very, very few people know what the full story is here (which is fine with us, for the record), but by all accounts Austin is genuinely a good kid who has done some dumb things. As opposed to a guy like, say, KJ, who couldn’t stop running afoul of the criminal justice system. We’ve heard some vague indications that if this was 15 years ago Austin would no longer be enrolled, so let’s all thank our lucky stars that it’s not 15 years ago. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’ll be happy to see any meaningful contribution from him this year.
UPDATE: Welp… News broke yesterday that Austin will miss the entire season, which unfortunately is in keeping with the less-vague of those indications that we had heard. So those of you who bet the under, well done. Rumor has it that Austin knew about this impending season-long suspension before fall camp started, so if you’re into prophesying that would seem to be a good sign that he intends to ride it out.
Sigh.
3.5 penalties for kickoffs out of bounds
- Readers: 59% over, 41 % under
- Staff: 44% over, 56% under
I’m in the camp that thinks that, at worst, Doerer won’t get the chance to put this many out of bounds. Damning with faint praise.
∞ times Irish fans will mutter “Shut up, Doug”
- Readers: 82% over, 18% under
- Staff: 95% over, 5% under
Some of you show an awful lot of faith in the coherence and insight of Doug Flutie. I find your lack of lack of faith… disturbing. Either that or you’re professional mathematicians with a penchant for following the rules.
0.5 viral memes featuring Brian Kelly
- Readers: 73% over, 27% under
- Staff: 70% over, 30% under
I rather suspect that nothing will shine so brightly as BK Homeboy, but… If one of the lead stories of your season is something like a viral meme of the head coach throwing deuces, you’ve had a good year. Plus, we really need to make sure ND Twitter has enough to talk about. Fingers crossed.
#BKHomeboy because why not?! pic.twitter.com/uUyYgrtMVX
— Katie Meyers (@Katie_Meyers_) February 19, 2019
I mean, how do you follow this?
Prop Bets
Notre Dame will have a 1,000 yard rusher in 2019.
- Readers: 16% true, 84% false
- Staff: 20% true, 80% false
Notre Dame will have a 1,000 yard receiver in 2019.
- Readers: 74% true, 26% false
- Staff: 80% true, 20% false
Reinforcing again the apparent belief noted above that we’re going to try to make Ian Book’s arm fall off this year. Josh Adams led the 2017 team with 1,430 yards rushing, while Dexter Williams logged 995 yards in just nine games last year. So I don’t think a 1,000 yard rushing season is totally out of the question, but I agree that the RB-by-committee combined with the potential dominance of Claypool and Finke and the receiving ability of all the backs makes it less likely.
The Notre Dame defense will record its first shutout since September 6, 2014.
- Readers: 39% true, 61% false
- Staff: 30% true, 70% false
Why is it that date significant? I just… I don’t know, I don’t quite seem to be able to put my finger on it… Oh yeah:
h/t to the Rakes Report podcast for highlighting this point!
Back to the question at hand… Sure, shutouts are hard. If you truly think it’s too hard to shut anyone out this year, though, I ask you to consider this: Scot Loeffler, OC of the triple-digit-ranked Boston College offense, was hired as Bowling Green’s head coach in the offseason. He hired former colleague Brian VanGorder as his defensive coordinator. Where were they colleagues? Well, I’m glad you asked! For one magical year at Auburn in 2012, when the Tigers went 3-9 in Gene Chizik’s last year and could neither score nor stop anyone from scoring. In fact, they lost to top-ten Georgia and Alabama teams by a combined score of 87-0. This is the same Auburn program that, one year later under Gus Malzahn, went 12-2 and lost in the national championship game by 3 points. That’s a remarkable level of coaching ineptitude. What I’m saying is, I like our chances.
Jon Doerer will be less accurate than Justin Yoon (80.8% career) but top Yoon’s career long (52 yards).
- Readers: 23% true, 77% false
- Staff: 20% true, 80% false
Seems unlikely, sure. But if you’re looking for a flyer, you should be able to get pretty long money line odds on this one.
Notre Dame will have a top 20 S&P+ offense and defense (last year: 33rd offense, 10th defense).
- Readers: 55% true, 45% false
- Staff: 75% true, 25% false
Despite the defensive losses, I think there’s an excellent chance that this will hold true. The pre-Book-as-QB1 segment of 2018 dragged the offensive ranking down substantially; Connelly posted a Book-only rank late in the season and I believe it was 8th. That probably slid a bit after a sluggish performance against USC and the throttling by Clemson, but still, this seems very much within reach.
Notre Dame will head to Palo Alto in playoff contention.
- Readers: 57% true, 43% false
- Staff: 50% true, 50% false
Get on the train, folks. I don’t see us getting past Georgia, but I think we’re going to handle everyone else. And you read above what I think will happen in Palo Alto this year. A ritual bloodletting. Will that be enough to get in the playoff? I don’t know. But I do think we’ll be in the conversation.
Notre Dame’s highest-ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be…
- Readers: 33% Michigan, 67% the field
- Staff: 20% Michigan, 80% the field
Michigan is currently the second-highest ranked Irish opponent per the AP and coaches polls, behind Georgia in both cases. There are a few ways to take this question, of course. Perhaps you thought that:
- Notre Dame will lose to Michigan, or…
- Notre Dame will beat Michigan but the Wolverines will slide behind someone else, or…
- Notre Dame will beat Michigan and Georgia, but Georgia will stay ahead of Michigan.
#1 is the only incorrect answer. You’re not welcome at our postgame party if that was your thought process here. Otherwise, have at it.
“Michigan.” He was looking for “Michigan.” The confusion is understandable though.
Wrapping Up
It’s not at all hyperbole to say we sit at an unusual point for the Notre Dame football program. The Irish have an opportunity to win 10 games in three consecutive years for just the second time in school history, with the first such stretch ending 36 years ago. The 2017-18 seasons are the first back-to-back 10-win seasons since then, as well (my God, have we been wandering in the desert). A firmly entrenched starting QB returns for the first time since Jimmy Clausen in 2009. The backup defensive ends would probably start for nearly all of the Irish teams of the last 25 years. The backups! A current point of contention among Irish fans is how ready some reserve OL may be to play a bigger role in 2020. There are legitimate concerns for 2019, certainly, as we saw above. But it definitely feels like Notre Dame football is in a much healthier place than it has been since the peak of the Holtz era, before the scholarship limit was trimmed to 85 and the administration ushered Cerrato out the door.
So where does that leave us when projecting 2019? It leaves me, the eternal optimist, determined to project conservatively because as a long-suffering Irish fan I just can’t believe the high side of what I think is possible. I think this program is right on the doorstep of elite status, and if just a couple of things break the right way this season it could storm through. I think this offense can execute at a higher level than we’ve seen since Kevin McDougal was under center, and has the potential to lay waste to ten or eleven regular season opponents. (Seriously.) I think this defense is inexperienced in some key spots that make me worry, but also more athletic than we’ve seen since… maybe ever? (Again, seriously.) And it has the potential to strangle, again, ten or eleven regular season opponents. Michigan is the hedge in both cases; I don’t think they’ll be terrible but I also don’t think they’re in our class. That’s fun to say.
So that’s what I think might be possible. Think. Might. Possible. All words carefully chosen to curb my natural enthusiasm. What do I believe? Honestly, I’m not sure yet, other than that this year is going to be a hell of a fun ride with a bunch of kids who make it easy to pull for them. Go Irish.
Time to have some fun, folks. Let’s do this.
ESPNU had a replay of the ND-USC game on from last year, and I watched it because #12-0. I didn’t realize/forgot/wasn’t paying attention to how inexperienced USC was for that game. A wholelotta Fresh/Soph/Backup/Backup-to-the-Assistant-Regional-Manager types were playing for them. In the Pac12 preview, the following was said:
“What do we say about USC? Their budding quarterback and receiver development should keep them in a lot games. It’s possible the growth here outpaces just about everyone else in the league (save Oregon) and USC wins a lot more games than we think.”
Is USC being slept upon, or am I reaching? ND won that game by only a touchdown against a young, inexperienced team. I assume most of those guys are coming back this year, but stronger and smarter* (*football-wise; they chose to go to USC, so their celling is limited). I’ll hang up and listen.
1) They’re very bad and thin on both lines, particularly the OL. They’re going to be at risk of getting pushed around by the better teams.
2) Their WRs are legitimately excellent, easily the top group we’ll face. Their QB is OK, IMO. But see #1 if that starts to scare you too much.
3) Their back seven and particularly their secondary is much less talented than we’re used to seeing. Not sure how good their defense will be this year.
4) We played super-conservative D in the first half last year, and their last TD was effectively in garbage time. And it was the final piece of our Carmen San Diego revue. I wouldn’t read too much into that game.
Their WRs make them potentially dangerous, but they have many holes elsewhere that are problematic.
Agree with a lot of this sentiment. USC was scariest in-game experience for me during the 2018 regular season. I thought we were in trouble much more so than a game that ended closer like a Vandy or a Michigan where both teams had a final drive to take the lead.
USC is definitely 3rd most likely loss for me on the schedule. Virginia or Va Tech don’t scare me as much, as they are generally solid teams without much top end talent (especially compared to SC’s skill positions). Stanford’s coming demise has been well documented…but it has been a slow decline that will continue.
My scare-ranking of the schedule – which is a great side topic:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Virginia (if we beat Georgia)
4. USC
5. Stanford
6. Virginia (if we lose to Georgia)
7. Virginia Tech
8. Duke
9. Boston College
10. Navy
11. Louisville
12t. Bowling Green
12t. New Mexico
I expect Virginia to be competent. If we lose to Georgia and come into that game pissed off, though, I don’t think it’ll matter. If we beat Georgia, then I’m concerned about the guys getting big heads. USC, as noted, scares me a bit because of their WR talent, which could potentially turn a game around in a hurry. Stanford’s offense is probably going to suck – they lost all five of their top skill position guys and their OL is a mess – but they’re still probably a bit more dangerous than Virginia. Navy stays out of a tie for last only because of triple option weirdness.
For me, there’s a decent gap between 1 and 2, a big gap between 2 and 3-6, a humongous gap between 3-6 and 7-9, and 10-12 is a “thanks for showing up.”
Why so little respect for VA Tech? I see it everywhere but according to the stat formerly known as S&P plus they are our fourth best opponent (32).
Trashing them in their house last year has caused ND fans to all have a bit of a skewed expectation of Va Tech. I agree with you. It’s hilarious to me that people are calling Virginia after Georgia a trap game, but are less worried about Va Tech after Michigan. I’m much more worried about the Virginia Tech game than the Virginia game. (Although I do think we will win both of those games by at least a TD)
Tech is a mess, they barely made a bowl game and had a ton of transfers and teammates openly hoping they would lose. Plenty of “bad apples” and supposedly they’re not in disarray but still have a lot of questions remaining.
https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/08/15/virginia-tech-transfers-unity-justin-fuente
Tech should be an easy one for ND this year, caught them at the right time. UVA on the other hand is ascending with a good coach and possibly a difference maker at QB. They easily should be way more feared — especially given the trap/letdown game spot on the schedule.
Virginia Tech is after Michigan. Not sure how that is less of a trap/letdown spot than UVA.
Because Michigan sucks and Georgia doesn’t.
Well that, and to be a “trap” game to me the other team has to be sneaky good and have a real shot at being able to win. UVA with their QB does. Tech with their program sitting in an unknown state following disarray really shouldn’t.
Tech has beaten UVA 15 straight years, including 2018.
There’s head to head voodoo magic and rivalry stuff there, and the UVA-VT series has little to do with ND independently playing both of them in 2019. Tech is the better program overall but what you’re either dismissing or overlooking is right now they had an exodus of transfers this off-season and their HC doesn’t have them going well. UVA has a great QB and coach has them on the upswing. There’s also a world of difference in where UVA was 5-10-15 years ago compared to now.
UVA has one 4 star (a true freshman DT) on their roster. Virginia Tech has 19. Any exodus of talent has still left them with a much more talented roster than UVA.
Perkins is a good QB. 25 TDs to 9 INTs is impressive. Virginia Tech also returns a solid QB, who threw for 24 TDs to 9 INTs last year. Not that he’s as good as Perkins, but he’s solid enough. Doesn’t have the legs of Perkins, who ran for 9 TDs, but he did run for 4.
I’m definitely dismissing the exodus of transfers. Their roster is way more stacked with good, quality, talented players than UVA.
The problem with the transfers (in the SI link) is that it was a bunch of kids who were rooting for the team to lose and creating a toxic and poisoned locker-room. Maybe they’ve cleaned out all the bad apples and it’s a good thing, but to me it’s ominous Fuente even let that develop so much in the first place. Something just isn’t right in the mix right there with that program.
Like hooks said… Bryce Perkins is quite likely the second or third best QB we’ll face behind Fromm and maybe Costello. He’s far and away the most dangerous dual-threat QB we’ll face. Bronco has the Hoos trending steadily upward, both in talent and performance. Tech, in contrast, is a bit of a train wreck with all the roster upheaval, Fuente’s seat warming up, and Foster retiring. Virginia is the ACC media’s pick to win the ACC Coastal, so it’s not like we’re holding up some tomato can as the potentially better team.
Perhaps you take issue with my “humongous gap between 3-6 and 7-9,” and I can understand that. I just think Virginia will be demonstrably better than Virginia Tech this year, while Tech will be pretty indistinguishable from Duke and BC. Just so happens that Tech will play both of them in their first four games, so I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
I actually do agree that there is a huge quality gap in the middle of our schedule. It’s just that I don’t think either UVA or Virginia Tech are going to be in that top quality tier. That’s probably where I’m not getting my point across; I don’t think Tech is amazing! I don’t even think they’ll be much above .500, although their Blue Chip ratio is 22% (to UVA’s 1%).
But UVA does not scare me at all, even if Perkins ends up being very good. We will have better players than them at literally every position on the field. At least Virginia Tech has some WRs and DBs that could be good enough to get on the field if they played for ND.
Ehh, I don’t know about that last part. CB Bryce Hall from UVA was the only player on either school that made the Preseason All-Clemson team…Err, I mean All-ACC team.
I get HS rankings and all, but I wouldn’t sleep on UVA. They’re not pushovers and ought to be better coached and have a much more dynamic QB. They’ll give ND much more of a scare in 2019.
Virginia reminds me a bit of a Don-Brown-era Boston College, but with a better QB – they’re probably going to be good enough on defense to muck the game up if we don’t come in focused. That’s what concerns me most about them. We’re likely to be a two-touchdown favorite, so they shouldn’t be *that* scary, but they could get us.
Also, I have to chuckle a bit, because I think you (and many others, I’m sure), overestimate my opinion of USC and Stanford dramatically. I think they’re likely to both be somewhat middling this year, albeit on the good side of middling. So I’m not praising Virginia all that much, lol. At the end of the day, if you want to make it 3-5 and a gap to 6-9, I wouldn’t argue.
Finally, a quick note of clarification – this isn’t necessarily who I think is better, but who scares me more. Obviously being better is a big part of that, but it’s not the only part. I’m concerned about a potential post-Georgia-win trap because playoff talk will be all over the place after just three games; I’m less concerned about a potential post-Michigan-win trap because the guys should be pretty settled in by then.
Fair enough, I suppose their defense could keep it lower scoring, although they return 0 good pass rushers and will be relying on a true freshman up front. They’ll win a bunch of games because of how atrocious their schedule is again, but if they keep it close against us, I’ll be absolutely shocked.
I don’t actually believe that trap games/letdown games are a real thing, but if they are, 7-0 coming off a win over a major rival (who has been massively hyped by the national media) seems like a much more likely time for it than at 3-0 coming off of a national power. I would imagine the “playoff talk” would be a lot higher at that point in the season too.
I hope I don’t have to shove this down your face in 7 weeks. (And thanks for the insight – all valid points.)
Our Oline was pretty much manhandled by a makeshift USC defense, which had a number of players on their line deep down the depth chart playing due to injuries. Same with a couple of their dbacks. And Clemson did whatever they wanted against our line. So I’m not sold on them.
On other notes:
1. thanks for mentioning McDougall, Brendan. One of my all time favorites.
2. Our interior defensive line will likely be weaker this year. Hinish is a couple steps too slow and the other DT’s are unproven or just ok.
3. I’m not sure what to make of Austen’s suspension. Definitely not elite.
4. I do worry about Young and Kmet injuries. IMO Kmet is a solid step up from Mack. I thought he should be starting last year. And with Young out, lots of pressure on Finke and Claypool, as well as Book.
That all said I think we’ll win 9 and wouldn’t be shocked if we did a bit better. But definitely not in the elite level yet, which at least on offense means all world QB’s, receivers and RBs, along with road grader lines.
Glad the season is starting, thanks for keeping things alive during the long football drought.
Follow bill Connolly on twitter and apparently he has dropped the “&” since going to espn. Assume its copyright related but I assume he owns the whole thing or maybe it’s tied to the S&P index fund and espn is big enough to care. Not sure but either way it’s now SP+
Also Connolly is a great follow for you twitter folks
Yeah, the stock market S&P+ people filed (or threatened to file, not sure) a trademark infringement lawsuit against ESPN – they didn’t care when Connelly was off on his own, but ESPN is a different animal.
And concur on Connelly, he does excellent work. His season previews in particular are phenomenal.
Very entertaining read, thanks for compiling the data Brendan! Hopefully the good predictions come true and the bad ones go far, far away.
LMFTFY – “Hopefully the good predictions come true and the bad ones go 133 miles NE.”
A few thoughts…
1) The polling here seems at least 25% more positive/happy/etc than what I feel like we usually discuss as a community.
2) There is a pretty large gap between Vegas and our polling. Last year, Vegas had Notre Dame at 9.5 wins and 62% took at least a 10-2 season if I’m reading that correctly. Vegas dropped ND down to 8.5 this year and readers went up to 83%(!) for at least 10-2. To point back to number one holy cow that is extremely rosy in a way I never would’ve guessed.
3) Was I the only staff member to predict 9-3?
1) We have found the silent majority!
2) I think the odds on that 8.5 wins are nuts – I don’t entirely understand all that, but the people who do tell me it’s a sign Vegas doesn’t think 8.5 is a real-life number. I think 8.5 is super bearish; S&P+, sorry, I mean SP+ has us at a hair over 9 expected wins, but if we handle business against all the teams we “should” beat (73% or higher win percentage), that jumps to 10.3. So from the voter perspective, the question really becomes whether you think Notre Dame will be able to handle its business. Clearly a large chunk of our voters does.
3) I can’t see names of who voted, but there were two staffers who picked 9-3, one with the run game as a main concern and the other with the road schedule. So no, you don’t quite stand alone. Congrats! (?)
I simply think of the 10 minutes in the Playoff without Love and I cannot bring myself to predicting above 9-3 without him.
It is true that all our returning players are “another year better,” but that’s true for every team (sans VanGorder coached defenses). There is a TON of potential on this team, but that’s another way of saying there are few proven commodities. I feel great about QB and WR1, DE and Safety… the rest, I either feel are solid, but not great, or unproven talent. Feeling great about 6 out of 22 starters doesn’t lead me to think 10+ wins. I get the hype, but I’m with Eric and think there’s a whole lot of optimism here!
The road schedule too (and typical ND road woes)….I’m stuck between 10-2/9-3. UGA probably a loss, and personally I see them beating Michigan and then losing to a team that on paper they probably “shouldn’t” lose to (i.e. a UVA/Tech/Stanford/USC type).
I wouldn’t really be shocking 11-1 through 9-3, though 9-3 seems waaay more likely.
12-0: 2% (saying there’s a chance)
11-1: 10%
10-2: 38%
9-3: 42%
Something bad: 8%
(thus 50% under 10 wins, 50% over)
FWIW, using S&P+ our probability of going 12-0 is 1.3% and 11-1 is 9.9%, so your back-of-the-envelope numbers are pretty good. I don’t have the time now to run the math on the scenarios that get us to 10-2, 9-3, etc., but just wanted to give you kudos for a pretty solid estimate on the high end.
That feels about right to me, 9-3 the most likely scenario, but 10-2 a not-particularly-unlikely second best chance of happening. And anything outside of those two being fairly unlikely. (And I would also likely favor 11+ wins over 8 or below, which matches your numbers as well.)
I would put more weight on that myself if we were playing Clemson 12 times, but we’re not. I think you’re underselling the roster considerably here; I would say there are proven commodities at:
– QB (duh)
– RB (not spectacular, perhaps, but certainly proven)
– WR1
– WR2 (1 reception and 60 yards fewer than the WR1 you considered superior)
– 4 of 5 OL
– DE+
– DT (we’ve seen MTA, Hinish, and Ademilola in live action)
– CB1 (Pride was and will be excellent)
– S (as good a tandem as there is in the country)
We’re a dog in two games as of now, although I suspect one of those might change by the time it kicks off (Michigan). We’re a single-digit favorite against Stanford. We’re at least a two-score favorite in every other game, including USC. The optimism isn’t only here.
I don’t know if proven commodities means a whole lot if it’s just a list of returning starters and a few others who have seen the field without major distinction. You could really do the same for most other opponents. For example, we’d never care for using that while predicting Michigan’s season. The larger question is if there’s enough 11-win proven commodities, a much higher bar to meet.
I do think believing some players are going to get a lot better makes sense if you’re predicting 10 or 11 wins. But I don’t know if we should point to Armstrong, MTA, etc. as reasons why because they are proven. To date, they are just decent players.
Precisely. I’m glad Eric responded so eloquently because I would have fumbled to express the same sentiments.
Oh and with regards to Finke, I think he’s quite good and would happily have him in the starting lineup for ND most years. But I also think he’s pretty much reached his ceiling, an incredibly solid, reliable receiver, who is never going to be spectacular or a game changer which the other team needs to scheme around. So if our receiving corp was all Finkes, then yes, I’m less optimistic than if it was all Claypools (who I do think has the potential to be incredible this year) even though their stats were pretty identical last year.
Finke is Hunter Renfrow. And we are going…all the way like 2016 Clemson. Pass that pinstripe kool aid.
Renfrow is apparently going to start for the Raiders this year; if Finke puts up a season this year that has him in line for a starting NFL job next year, then our offense will have performed way way better than I’m currently expecting.
Last year Renfrow caught 49 for 544 and 1 TD. Finke had 49 for 571 and 2 TDs.
I’m not sure they’re much different a player, maybe Finke can’t run a 4.6 40 (which was faster than many expected Renfrow to run) so maybe he’s not draftable but on the football field I don’t see a ton of difference in performance or ability. Renfrow just has a lot of mystique and a great perception (a lot of it deservedly so) being that he’s shined in the games against Alabama and made huge catches there.
Heh never would have guessed that Renfrow’s numbers were that low. I really only watched Clemson in their (few) big games, where he always seemed to shine. Finke will destroy those numbers this year just by virtue of being our #2 receiver this year, even if he doesn’t improve at all as a receiver (which seems unlikely, as he’s always been noted as one of the hardest workers on the team).
I’ll harsh the mellow on some of that: our RB room is mediocre (the talent there is not one of the 25 best in the country, much less among the elite. Tony Jones is apparently RB1A right now. That’s not great!); we’re in a situation where Chris Finke is an essential player to the roster; the o-line last year was not particularly good and it’s the same dudes; and our starting DTs are fine/acceptable but nothing special (if there’s hope at DT, it’s that Ademilola makes a huge jump over the course of the year, as it seems like Hinish and MTA have relatively low ceilings).
Basically, this is going to be an interesting exercise in seeing how important high-quality (but non-elite) QB play plus elite-level DE and safety play, without a ton else special on a roster, is. QB and DE are probably the two most important positions in football, so it’s not crazy to think that this team could be a legit contender. I’m just a little skeptical.
I agree with the above criticisms except maybe O-line. I think they were better last year then it felt at times.
PFF says: “The Irish O-line returns four of their five 2018 starters, and three of those ranked in the top-12 at their respective position in PFF grade among returning power five and independent lineman (left guard Aaron Banks, right guard Tommy Kraemer and right tackle Robert Hainsey). Whether it was a run play or a pass play, the Irish o-line excelled. When run-blocking, the Notre Dame o-line unit ranked 20th in PFF run-block grade and assisted on giving their backfield 2.5 yards before contact on designed run plays (22nd). As far as pass-blocking goes, Notre Dame’s line allowed a lowly 14.8% pressure rate (13th) and just six total sacks (ninth-fewest).”
Though a 20th best O-line, while good, still isn’t top tier.
And if PFF is right and the O-line was much better than we felt last year, it makes me even MORE trepidatious about our “proven” RBs.
Not surprisingly, perhaps, I disagree with almost all of it, in large part because of what I’ve read in practice reports from people I trust. Lest anyone thinking I’m just sitting here dreaming up rainbows and gumdrops by my lonesome. I’d strongly recommend reading these couple of pieces from Jamie Uyeyama:
https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10217/uyeyamas-practice-observations-821
https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10237/6-thoughts-after-camp
I’m always a fan of reading Uyeyama’s stuff, but I don’t have a premium membership for ISD, so those thoughts are unfortunately out of reach for me.
I will say, PFF has ND ranked 4th in their preseason rankings… but they also say if you get a good price take the under at 9.5 wins. One can see the potential of this team and still feel that 9 wins is not an unlikely outcome. – – – Recall that last year’s AP poll going into conference championship week basically only had 8 teams with more than 9 wins (not counting Wash St, Boise, and Fresno, who were all ranked behind 9 win teams).
I can’t read these either, unfortunately. If they’re the positive reports we’ve been hearing about Tony Jones, though, I think skepticism is certainly warranted: he has gotten positive camp/spring reports for over two years now, and so far all we’ve seen is a guy who in an ideal situation would never see the field on anything more than 3rd and long.
I hadn’t seen the PFF grades on our o-line; my not-nice things were based on Irish Illustrated, who were generally quite unimpressed with their play last year. I am particularly surprised to see the Kraemer top-12 ranking, as I don’t think anybody would have called his play last year anything more than serviceable. That said, I do think the continuity+the potential for significant improvement for Eichenberg (who has to go against Julian Okwara every day in practice) could mean the o-line is pretty good this year.
Do keep in mind, that’s top 12 of RETURNING lineman. So they’re not saying he was top 12 last year overall, but that if every single lineman improved an identical amount from last year to this year, because of those who departed he’d now be top 12 this year. (And that’s only out of the Power 5, and for his specific position on the O-line. It’s still high praise, but extremely qualified high praise).
Ah, you’re getting your info from Irish Illustrated. That explains quite a bit… O’Malley is OK. Prister is a nice guy, but he’s pretty far down the list of guys whose evaluations I would most trust on the ND beat; I think things might have passed him by a bit. If we’re talking podcast too, I like Sampson’s Athletic articles but I think he tends to make things a bit more dramatic than they really are, whether by nature or intent.
Here are a few quotes from Jamie’s posts linked above:
– “Keys on a safety or a linebacker is no bueno for the defense… Keys is so tough for anyone who can’t match his explosiveness.”
– “Williams and Armstrong especially are dangerous when split out… This Notre Dame offense is going to be a problem for teams who don’t have safeties who can play man coverage.”
– “Still haven’t seen the offensive line execute at a high level running outside zone (out of the few times I have seen it), but wow, do they ever look good running counter trey… It looked good today and has the chance to be a go-to call for the offense this season.”
– “Wu seems to be the perfect nickname for [JOK] because he’s going to be making plays like that with people sounding like Ric Flair after.”
– “After watching them this past week in camp, I’m starting to think that Notre Dame’s defense could be as good as it was in 2018. In some ways, even better… I didn’t end up walking out of practice on Wednesday [8/22] thinking that the Irish have major concerns at any spot.”
– “I think Notre Dame’s offense has a chance to be very good. Maybe even great… The potential is there for Notre Dame to be the kind of offense where they can beat a team in whatever way they need to.”
– “There seemed to be a handful of guys each year who had been on campus for a year or more where it was clear they weren’t ever going to be a factor. That number seems to decrease every year and it’s now the lowest since I’ve been covering the team for ISD.”
Jamie has concerns, of course, and many of them mirror ours. This is a good recap of them:
https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/10265/16-questions-heading-into-the-season
Just saying though, if your impressions come mostly from II, they take a bit of a dimmer view than others, and I would put others’ evals ahead of Prister and Sampson in particular.
Also, incidentally, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler put Eichenberg 34th overall in his top 50 draft prospects list and 4th among OTs.That’s one guy out of five, granted, but again, outside perception of our OL talent/performance differs dramatically from what you’ll find from some corners within.
Sampson…. ” a bit more dramatic”.
Thank you!
Used the free one week trial on Athletic.
Each ND beat guy/group/blog/etc each has its angle. Its niche. I just didn’t find Pete’s “angle”- one that is more of a broader story line, macro level, abstract, “dramatic” as you say, type of coverage- appealing. Nice guy. Good writer (though he did have at least two spelling errors).
Even the fellas with unfettered access don’t really tell me things that I couldn’t just search on google myself.
Long story short. Good job 18 stripes. Don’t change like OFD did
With all due respect to Pete. Again, nice fella, informed, smart, Lost me when he replied “washington”, as a realistic potential for ND as a winning program- on ESPN I believe.
Damn. Washington?…. Washington?
I dont care if that it’s actually realistic or the truth. Just lie and say bama or OSU or anybody. but damn…Washington? Our goal in CFB life?
-RB has two guys who have a total of one single 100 yard rushing game in their careers (against Vanderbilt, the #106 S&P+ rush defense last year)
-WR has two guys who have a total of two 100 yard receiving games in their careers
-OL was pretty bad last year compared to ND’s admittedly very high recent standards
-DT – those three guys have 15 career tackles, 21 career tackles, and 18 career tackles
While I do think we will be very good, I’m not sure I would call these guys “proven commodities.” Or at least not, as Eric stated, “11-win proven commodities.”
Love was pivotal. But to come cold off the bench like Vaughn did and cover maybe the best group or WRs in the country would be difficult. I actually thought vaughn played the ball well on one of the blown TDs ,however, just got outplayed for the highpoint.
Following up on our purported pie-in-the-sky optimism here… ISD just posted their staff predictions article.
– Mike Frank, of all people, predicted 11-1 with a loss to Georgia.
– Matt Freeman predicted 11-1 with a loss to Virginia Tech.
– Jamie and Christian McCollum predicted 10-2 with losses to Georgia and Stanford.
Jamie and Christian both essentially expect Stanford weirdness to do us in until proven otherwise. I think 38-17 proves otherwise, but I understand where they’re coming from. Anyway, if I’m predicting the same record as Mike Frank, I humbly submit that nobody is allowed to call me optimistic, as I’m quite confident that never once has that adjective been applied to Mike.
1) Another season removed from 2016 helps along with 22 wins in the last 2 years. Daresay, are people starting to trust BK and his high floor?
2) Find me ND over 8.5 at anything better than -150 and we can retire by December.
3) Keeping the site grounded
Ahh Brendan just beat me
Haha, well done sir!
Yeah on #2 I would love to see a current 8.5, was in a casino last weekend and it was either 9 or 9.5 but definitely started with a 9 so I stayed away.
I’m seeing my local sports book at Over 9.5 +130 / Under -150. Either there’s been a lot of activity on that, or Iowa casinos are more bullish on ND
One would think that in 2019 it would no longer be acceptable to display the anti-lacrosse-ism and anti-Fertitta-ism displayed by by Brendan in this post.
And the answer to defensive MVP is indeed Fertitta as a lifetime achievement award after 4 years of snubs.That or he buys the University in cash, and installs himself as defensive-coordinator-for-life.
I think if Boykin and Love had returned, we could be looking at this team as a possible top-5 level/legit disappointment if we didn’t make the playoff. Without them, though, I think we’re a notch (or maybe a notch and a half) below that – more disappointment if we don’t go to a NY6 game. Still, that’s a pretty good place for the program.
I think 9-3 is the likeliest result, then 10-2, then 8-4.
Do you think we’re likely to be invited to a NY6 game at 9-3? I feel like next rung down – which if I’m looking correctly would be Camping World Bowl – is more likely at that record. I too think 9-3 seems most likely but hope we can pull off 10-2 and get into a winnable NY6 game (please not a Bama or Georgia who’s pissed they got left out of the playoff)
Nope. Probably another Citrus Bowl-type appearance (I have no idea how all the bowl tie-ins would work out, that’s just a stand-in for a particular tier of bowl). I don’t think 9-3 gets us highly ranked enough unless there’s something truly exceptional or the rest of the landscape is a bloodbath.
I believe this year is a “bad” year for ND w/r/t making a NY6, because neither the Rose nor the Sugar Bowls are CFP semifinals (“bad” meaning that there are the fewest possible at-large slots for ND to get into). So 9-3 is very unlikely, unless this is a 2007-level weird season.
I appreciate youre gentle dismissal of my Kyren Williams for offensive MVP vote.
I saw some of his high school highlight video. Then I saw him wearing #23. Then I saw him playing receiver.
RB in high school- potential receiving role- wears # 23.
He’s got the Gloden Tate wiggle. Not fast or big but yet inexplicably difficult to tackle.
He may not be the MVP this year due to Kelly’s somewhat archaic viewpoint on using young, talented skills position players throughout the season consistently. However, he will be on the ballot next year as a popular option.