Is anyone interested in an early look at the 2020 schedule? As the current season is winding down we have a good idea of the shape and feel of next year’s schedule already. Here are 5 things I have on the brain thinking about the near future.
Road Games
The lack of true road games is certainly odd and the ones that will be played have a very traditional feel to them. More importantly, the first road game won’t come until October 17th!
Pittsburgh – A faceless team that has somehow scraped themselves to a 7-4 record currently with the second worst scoring (20.2 points per game) in the ACC.
Georgia Tech – Another faceless program currently going through a tough rebuild. What is the over/under on the Pitt and Georgia Tech players the average Notre Dame fan could name today? 2.5?
USC – We’ll have more on this below but as the Irish are ending the season in Los Angeles this feels like it’s a million miles away. Any number of scenarios could play out for the Trojans.
Fresh Blood
Unless you’re over 70 years old you have no memory of the last game between Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Even then, some memories may be fading!
Yes, the Irish will suit up against the Badgers for the first time since 1964 and do so at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Seeing as Notre Dame is opening the season in Dublin, Ireland against Navy for the second time in 8 years (I’d love to make the trip but as a television viewer the luster of this neutral site game wore off real hard) there’s no doubt Wisconsin is the premier opponent away from home.
Additionally, this will be the first-ever matchup against Arkansas. It’s unbelievable that it’s taken this long for Notre Dame to meet the Hogs and at least it will add some spice to a game that isn’t projected to be real competitive.
Higher Floor, Similar Schedule
The 2020 schedule looks a lot like this year’s slate except the bottom isn’t quite as soft. The likes of Bowling Green (128th SP+) and New Mexico (119th) are being replaced with a pair of Power 5 programs. Right now, here’s the current SP+ rankings for next year’s lineup:
Clemson #4
Wisconsin #12
USC #23
Navy #34
Wake Forest #54
Louisville #57
Pitt #58
Duke #73
Stanford #79
W. Michigan #85
Ga Tech #103
Arkansas #108
Only 5 teams (USC, Navy, Louisville, Duke, Stanford) carry over from 2019 and yet this feels so much like the same schedule. You hate to think how it will play out with losses to Clemson and Wisconsin. Is it groundhog day?
Also, this will be the 6th meeting in 10 years against Wake Forest. It feels like we’ve played them every year and yes I had to double check the 2019 schedule to make sure we missed them this year.
Who Will Be Better?
You have to think Arkansas and Georgia Tech will get better by the fact that there’s really only one direction to go for each program. Especially the Yellow Jackets who will be entering year two under head coach Geoff Collins. I’m not completely sold Arkansas will get better yet before seeing their new hire and that process apparently isn’t going so swell anyway.
Maybe Stanford is a little better? They should get quarterback K.J. Costello back for a 5th year at least. We’ll see how this weekend’s game in Palo Alto finishes but it’s possible we’ve officially entered the Stanford Regression™ that has been teased a couple times in the recent past.
A lot of people didn’t think Louisville would improve much this season. Instead, they’ve already won 5 more games than 2018, could finish second in their division behind Clemson, and have a chance at a 9-4 season. That partly explains some of Notre Dame’s struggles to open the season at Louisville this season. I’m not sure how much better Satterfield can have this team in year two if he’s already reached the 8/9 win level of play. But they could be a tough out.
Who Will Be Worse?
Navy is losing Malcolm Perry, is it safe for me to pencil them in as being markedly worse?
I’m assuming Wisconsin’s star running back Jonathan Taylor is going to declare early for the NFL which would be bad news for their ground game. I’m not sure it will have a major impact as their quarterback play improves, plus they have a young and very promising defense that should give Notre Dame fits.
USC has already finished their season at 8-4, and not even a 3-game winning streak to end it could slow down the criticism of Clay Helton. The L.A. Times has already twice come out since the weekend for the need of the Trojans leadership to move on.
I’m getting very strong Notre Dame 2008 vibes from USC right now, right down to a new AD probably reluctant to pull the trigger if the right hire isn’t lined up. Here’s another reason to maybe punt until after 2020: The USC schedule is absolutely brutal.
They open with Alabama in Arlington and will face 5 teams currently in the Top 20 of the SP+ rankings, including the Tide (2), Utah (8), Notre Dame (15), Washington (17), and Oregon (20). I can see the sense in waiting, letting Helton take a bunch of those losses, and maybe most importantly allow 2020 to shake out your quarterback situation which is going to brew all off-season and probably lead to a major transfer.
Still insane to me that all 5 true-ish road games are in NFL stadiums
I hadn’t even noticed that. Well, that game is now 20% more appealing.
Yep. We play zero games on another school’s campus. Expect that to be brought up a time or 50 by some corners of the Internet if we’re fortunate enough to be in playoff contention.
I’m not that worried about Wisconsin. Taylor is 100% gone, and they don’t have an obvious candidate waiting in the wings who looks even remotely comparable. Unless the Badgers have a QB who is better than their standard sorta-athletic-but-not-really white dude who can occasionally complete play-action passes, they’re pretty one-dimensional in a way that Lea should be able to neutralize. And the scene at Lambeau will not be the same as it would at Camp Randall.
TL; DR – The game should be a challenge but not at all on the level of Clemson, IMO.
I’m done doubting Wisconsin. They’ve won double digit games in 4 of Chryst’s 5 seasons (and this year will likely make it 6 of 7). Obviously they won’t be Clemson, but as Michigan proved this year, you don’t have to be Clemson to put a beating on a good team. Coan has been a solid enough QB this year, putting up really nice numbers, albeit on a pretty low volume. I’m definitely worried about Wisconsin.
Honestly, aren’t there a lot of parallels between Wisconsin and Notre Dame’s programs right now? Capable top 10ish teams, usually great o-lines. Don’t typically trip up against bad teams, but not quite on the level of the very, very elite. Not saying mirror images, but it’s hard to think of another program that’s built as quite similar and gets consistent very good but not quite great results.
So I’d agree with both these points, Wisconsin shouldn’t be a challenge on the level of Clemson, but they’re still not going to be easy to defeat, especially in the venue of Lambeau.
Hopefully Coan has the same regression next year that Book had this season. His numbers (and really the way they use him) are very similar to Book’s 2018.
It’d be interesting to have a discussion about what having all the ACC has done to our schedule and how it’s worked out. With the ACC down this year and next(?) it seems like its currently a negative, but is that true? Who would we be typically scheduling that we don’t and would it really be better off or is it more the Bowling Green/Western Michigan types that are really bringing our schedule down. Or is it Stanford plummeting making that an issue, etc.? Just lots of questions and my sense is that this years schedule was relatively weak and next year’s is too. And how is being a part of the ACC helping or hurting us?
I think the perception is largely tied to the decline of SC/Stanford. Where the ACC has provided the most value for us is in filling schedule dates in late October and November when the major players are locked into conference games or otherwise unwilling to play a challenging OOC opponent (hi SEC!). To that end, they’ve given us late-season games against Miami, FSU and Clemson (next year) that could or should improve schedule strength and perception down the stretch. The problem is that some of those programs are currently down, as well.
You have to think about which opponents might realistically fill those slots without the ACC arrangement, and it’s not especially pretty. BYU and Group of Five teams for the most part, I suspect. Some Power 5 teams might be thirsty enough to jump through scheduling hoops to get it done, but a lot are more concerned with bowl eligibility and that sort of thing.
The ACC needs one more consistent Top 15 team and I think things will be fine.
Remove Louisville (7-4), Virginia (8-3), Virginia Tech (8-3), and Duke (4-7) for a 27-17 combined record with a more traditional lineup of Purdue (4-7), Michigan State (5-6), Northwestern (2-9), and Air Force (9-2) for a combined record of 20-24 and things certainly aren’t any better.
Stanford plummeting is a major factor, too.
I think the ACC being down is a good thing for us. At the end of the day, the committee cares that you’ve:
A) not lost games
B) beaten at least one really good team
Ohio State has beaten one really good team (Penn State) and one good team (Cincinnati).
Clemson has beaten 0 good teams, and actually almost lost to UNC.
Alabama has beaten 0 good teams and lost to #1.
Utah has beaten 0 good teams.
Oklahoma has beaten 1 good team (Baylor).
Oregon has beaten 1 good team (USC).
After last week’s rankings, all of these teams had themselves in a great position to make the playoff. At the end of the day, the ideal schedule really involves a bunch of cupcakes, 1-2 good teams, and 1 great team. Obviously we’re a long way away from 2020, but right now, that schedule shapes up to be a dream CFP schedule. The only way it could really be better is swapping out Clemson for somebody like Georgia. But even then, if we beat Clemson, there may not be enough meat on their schedule to get them into the playoff, so if we were to make it in, we could avoid having to play them there.
Could not agree more with your take on what the committee values. The optimal schedule is 2 top tier games and then a bunch of cupcakes. I hate to say it, but there’s no reward for beating top 50 teams.
Actually this has a very 2017 vibe to me. I could see us gutting out a win against Wisc., and making it to 8-0. Have expectations off the charts, and playoff discussion in full swing. And then losing 2 of the final 4 for a very disappointing 10-2 season. Please, please, let it not be the case. In so many ways it would be so much better to lose to Wisc. than to USC.
I love having Navy first, then a bye. Ample time to prepare and a week to recover. I think we should do this every year.
See you in Dublin again, then!
Is there an 18S international meetup? I’m planning on being out there too.
Yeah, we have travel packages and VIP events set up for $14,000.
Do you need my Venmo?
Wow, almost cheaper than the ND packages, was hoping the 18S gold tier would have a special rate or offer extra activities.
At least it’s less than I pay burger for my subscription.
Man, that Clemson game could be enormous. It’ll be nice to finally get one of these big-time contests at home but that is such a challenge. It’ll probably be the first time Clemson has to get up for a regular season game since 2016. Everyone should prepare themselves for that to be a “Kelly Legacy Game”.
I worry about the Wisconsin -> Stanford -> Pitt stretch and Louisville -> USC at the end. (Obviously Clemson will be a very challenging game). Is Wisconsin a body blow opponent with their defense and run game? It’s hard to imagine Stanford as an easy out but Saturday may change that. As for Pitt, I’ll probably go to that game so look out. With Louisville I’m most afraid that a loss would carry over to USC and we’d close on a losing streak.
I guess it’s been so long since Clemson hasn’t been awesome but I kind of forgot what “clemsoning” was. That was still a thing when we played in 2015.
Anyways Is ND going through its version of clemsoning. Clemson won 10, 11, 11, and 10 games from 2011-2014. Guess ND just needs the breakthrough win to get over the hump (maybe, hopefully)
What ND is doing now is the complete opposite of ‘Clemsoning’, which as originally coined was used to describe talented teams with high expectations inexplicably losing to clearly inferior opponents. That doesn’t fit the description of any ND loss in quite a long time (although it would definitely have applied to Pittsburgh in 2012 and in 2018 if we hadn’t pulled it out).
It’s not really the opposite at all. Clemson was a team that looked great 10 weeks out of the year but who could never quite win the big game to get over the hump as a legitimate NC contender. They lost to the only 3 ranked teams they played in 2014 to go 10-3. They beat Georgia to open 2013 but got throttled by top-5 FSU and lost to a top-10 ranked South Carolina team to end the regular season – finished 11-2. They lost to the same two teams in 2012, both of them again among the only ranked teams they played – again 11-2. It was very similar to what we’ve been seeing with ND in recent years.
I’m just referring to the term ‘Clemsoning’. The Solid Verbal coined it as a way to describe well thought-of teams inexplicably playing down to and losing to a team they should’ve beaten. It hit its heyday early in the Dabo era after they lost to, I think, NC State or somebody like that. He spent the rest of the decade slowly but surely dismantling the idea as you point out.
I think it is called “Georgaing” now.
So, I do remember ’64 Wisconsin, it was so huge, it was the Era of Ara before we knew there was gonna be one. A lovely game. I betcha Cubs Fan and HC Hog may have seen it as well.
Agree with those comments that suggest Lambeau Field is a better venue for us. As for the Wisconsin defense giving us probs, yes, I am pretty sure. But, some of this depends on whether Ian comes back? (And I guess which Ian?)
I likely listened to the ’64 Wisconsin game on the radio (don’t remember the actual game, but I listened to all ND games on the radio). That was back when the NCAA (in its infinite wisdom) only allowed two TV games every Saturday, and your team could only appear on TV twice a year, not including a bowl game. The South Bend TV broadcasts of ND were an exception, but I couldn’t get South Bend TV at my home in Kankakee, Illinois.
My biggest memory of the ’64 season is the heartbreak of listening to ND/USC on the radio, and hearing the announcers call the winning TD for ND, and then hearing them say that the TD was erased by an ND penalty. 🙁
USC’s QB situation is already settled: Kedon Slovis is a legit dude and probably was a top-10 national QB as a true freshman. He’s already a better QB than anyone ND has had since Clausen. So, JT Daniels is going to transfer this offseason; book it.
Yeah, I don’t see how JT is getting his job back – Slovis is everything JT was supposed to be and they have the same eligibility remaining. Fun fact: The nominal runner-up for JT was Stanford.