Eventually Notre Dame will have a game where they aren’t ripping away turnovers, rushing at will for over 300 yards, and dominating on both sides of the ball in the red zone. That day was not last weekend against USC, as Brian Kelly stayed undefeated since dancing with his team to Post Malone and Quavo in the locker room.
The Basics
This was a thorough start to finish effort by the Irish, taking advantage of turnovers but also generally just outplaying and physically controlling the game. Notre Dame had more scoring opportunities and as they’ve done all season converted them better than their opponents. Depending on how strict you want to be with your garbage time definitions, nearly half this game was played after the outcome was decided. Generally I opt for more versus less data (as long as both teams have in first team players and aren’t clearly changing up strategy). So for this review, garbage time began with yet another long Josh Adams touchdown making it 42-14 in the 3rd Quarter (25.6% of plays then were garbage time).
Explosiveness
The chart above is simply domination when it comes to big plays – the Irish offense registered explosive plays (runs of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards) on nearly a quarter of its total plays (highest this season outside of Temple). The running game constantly kept USC off balance – in one sequence on Notre Dame’s second touchdown drive there were six straight successful runs by four different runners – and gashed the Trojan line. Brandon Wimbush didn’t complete a ton of passes but those connections counted, with an average of 20.5 yards per successful pass play.
Taking off the statistics glasses for a minute, this felt like a strong performance for Wimbush and the Irish passing game. With every opponent desperately trying to slow down the passing game, Wimbush just has to be decisive and take advantage of one on one matchups when they are available. And while some of the opportunities were just missed against USC, the receivers looked dangerous with the resurgence of Kevin Stepherson (welcome back from Siberia!). A mostly unstoppable run game complemented with big-play passing ability is a formula that has taken recent teams to championship contention (2013 Auburn, 2014 Ohio State). Similar to Brian Kelly’s “just keep pounding on the door and eventually you’ll break through” philosophy about finally winning a big game, I think the passing game has been knocking and kicking for a while now and the door may be on its last hinge.
Defensively, this was Notre Dame’s strongest game of 2017 in terms of havoc rate, fueled by an obliteration of USC’s run game. Before garbage time Mike Elko’s defense stuffed over a third of the Trojans’ carries for zero or negative yardage, and allowed just two runs of 10+ yards. The Irish have benefited from turnover luck this season – for example, in this game recovering both fumbles – but a team creating QB pressure and tackles for losses is going to create more turnover opportunities.
Efficiency
The Irish were successful on two-thirds of their runs against the Trojans, again putting up their best number so far in 2017. The running success and explosiveness when the Irish did connect through the air made the inefficiency of the pass game a moot point, and it’s worth remembering that a decent portion of those successful runs were called passes Wimbush turned into efficient runs. USC’s offense had a better success rate through the air than I would have anticipated, but this was mostly the result of some “bend but don’t break” at its finest. The Trojans could convert some first downs through the air but rarely for big gains, and eventually were derailed either by a key sack, turnover, or in the red zone.
There are just so many things to like about this defense and its turnaround from a year ago, but for a second let’s call out a few:
- Drue Tranquill and Shaun Crawford recovering from multiple devastating injuries to be among the best in the nation at their positions. You can add Nick Watkins breaking his arm and missing an entire year just to return as a top corner here too.
- Jerry Tillery completely turning around his play, leadership, and effort levels since the last time he played USC and boosting his future pro status as a result
- Guys like Andrew Trumbetti, Nyles Morgan, and Jay Hayes who showed patience amid early career struggles and now are thriving in Mike Elko’s defense
- Young players coming into their own like Daelin Hayes, Khalid Kareem, Julians Okwara and Love, and not-as-young Nick Coleman settling into his role nicely at free safety.
Somehow in a year’s time the main worries for the Notre Dame defense have changed from things like “will we ever be competent” to “how long will Mike Elko stay, and will anyone leave early for the draft now?” What a world.
Finishing Scoring Opportunities, Field Position, & Turnovers
After another strong effort scoring touchdowns in the red zone (and from just outside it), the Notre Dame offense is now 4th nationally in points per scoring opportunity (inside the opponent 40). The Irish defense isn’t too far behind at #14, allowing just 3.38 points per scoring opportunity. What was an early season trend now appears to have become part of this team’s identity, and I doubt there’s many (if any) other teams in the top-15 on both sides of the ball in that area. (If anyone has lots of time and loves to look at advanced stats profiles, feel free to fact-check that one for a free 18S subscription).
One of the few weak points in Notre Dame’s current advanced stat profile is average starting field position. The Irish had the advantage against USC thanks in large part to the defense’s forced turnovers, but Notre Dame continues to be below average in terms of kickoff returns and coverage.
Fun fact: Mike Elko now has as many games with his defense causing 3+ turnovers in 7 games as Brian Van Gorder put up in his entire 30-game tenure. In addition to a strong ground performance, I also can’t recall a Wimbush pass from Saturday that was in danger of being intercepted. With an offense this efficient and explosive conservatism in throwing the ball away is prudent, and it was also encouraging to see the QB1 avoiding big collisions, with the notable exception of a couple of message-sending hits delivered.
On to paying attention to playoff scenarios (for fans)
In Eric’s recap there was a lot of discussion about Notre Dame’s national ranking and yards per play differential compared to other top teams in the country. The Irish don’t have the strongest differential compared to Alabama, Penn State, Georgia, or Ohio State – yet the advanced stats systems feel they are certainly in that territory. Garbage time plays only a small factor – while the Irish have played almost 25% of their season in garbage time, their YPP margin is +1.84 before garbage time and +1.22 after, so a small overall impact.
Opponent adjustments are the more likely reason – the Irish have played around the 25th toughest schedule so far by ESPN’s FPI and the Sagarin ratings. Whatever system you use agrees that those top teams have faced an easier slate so far. But I think Eric’s original point has merit – Notre Dame is not dominating in terms of moving the ball and stopping other teams as well as some other teams. The early success has been closely tied to things not captured by YPP – dominating the turnover battle and red zone areas. There’s definitely room for improvement in some of those fundamentals, which would only keep driving up the ceiling for this team.
Without looking too far ahead, it’s also worth noting that the Irish rank favorably in some of the less commonly cited statistics ESPN has created that tend to make their way into the mouths of the selection committee. Notre Dame is 5th in Overall FPI, 4th in Game Control, and 12th in Strength of Record.
On to NC State (for the team)
As USC struggled at home against Utah, particularly in the trenches, it become really trendy for posters and beat writers to declare that NC State was in fact a scarier game than the Trojans. And then these same folks had the immense joy after Notre Dame routed USC in relishing their great predictions. But how do the Wolfpack really measure up against USC as an opponent, and where are they vulnerable or a threat to Notre Dame’s now soaring playoff hopes?
Three Reasons for Optimism
#1 The Irish are one of the most balanced teams in the nation: Notre Dame is now ranked #12 in Offensive S&P+ and #18 in Defensive S&P+. Recent history has shown that making the playoff requires this kind of balance, or eventually that weakness will be exposed over the course of the regular season. The other teams that can boast a top-20 offense and defense? Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, and Georgia.
There’s also enough data now to look at opponent-adjusted efficiency and explosiveness ratings. Notre Dame is also incredibly balanced here – top 10 in offensive Success Rate+ (9th) and IsoPPP+ (4th), and also defensive Success Rate+ (10th) and IsoPPP+ (8th). Ohio State is the only other team that can boast the same accomplishment, and they just happen to be (not without controversy) the top rated team per S&P+.
#2 NC State is better than USC in the trenches, but not quite ELITE (like UGA): The Wolfpack defensive line and front seven are incredibly talented. They rank in the top-25 in almost every category of rushing defense – opponent rushing explosiveness (21st), adjusted line yards allowed (24th), opponent success rate (13th), and stuff rate (11th). Led by Bradley Chubb (who should have just gone pro last year, why do you have to make things difficult), the defensive line is 3rd in havoc rate. But zoom out a little bit and NC State is just 45th in Rushing S&P+, and their pass rushing stats (75th in adjusted sack rate) aren’t great. What gives?
The answer to this apparent contradiction is our old friend opponent adjustments. The Pack have feasted on some truly awful run offenses – South Carolina (102nd in Rushing S&P+), Marshall (117th), Furman (FCS), and Syracuse (103rd) comprise half their games. In the other contests against formidable rushing attacks, Pittsburgh (3.36 YPC) was the only shutdown effort.
Florida State, maybe the closest analog in terms of talent to ND, ran for 5.68 yards per carry. Louisville, who has the blessing and curse combo of Lamar Jackson and a poor offensive line, ran for 5.6 yards per pop. I don’t see the Irish running for 300+ yards again, although everyone keeps saying that and being proven wrong. But I also don’t see anything that would make me worry about a UGA-like disruption to the Notre Dame run game.
#3 Big plays should still come: The Achilles heel of NC State’s defense so far has been giving up explosive plays in the passing game and an inability to get off the field on passing downs. The Pack are just 68th in Passing Downs S&P+, and 76th in passing explosiveness (IsoPPP) allowed. For as talented and experienced as the front seven are, Dave Doeren’s secondary skews far younger and its showing a bit early this season.
Chip Long called a terrific game against USC, and the upside of blowing out the Trojans is that there still may be plenty left in the bye week bag of tricks. This all bodes well for Wimbush connecting on some deep balls to Stepherson or St. Brown, in addition to the now mandatory long Adams touchdown.
Three reasons to worry:
#1 NC State plays mistake-free football: As mentioned above, the Irish defense has thrived on takeaways, and as a team are #4 nationally in turnover margin per game. The bad news is that this weekend they are facing an NC State offense that has been the best in the country at protecting the football, with just three fumbles lost and zero interceptions in seven games.
#2 A balanced offense with a hyper-efficient passing attack: Offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz and NC State QB Ryan Finley are a scary combination. The Wolfpack use a lot of motion, formations, screens, and short passes to constantly keep defenses off balance. They move ninth-year senior Jaylen Samuels all over the place – he’s their leading receiver and third leading rusher – and are 19th in Passing S&P+ with the 9th best success rate in FBS. Finley doesn’t air it out downfield a ton, and the Pack aren’t too explosive through the air, but have the opposite profile on the ground. Rushing the team is just average in efficiency, but pretty explosive at 34th in Rushing IsoPPP. The offensive line hasn’t been great preventing havoc in the run game (94th in stuff rate) but has been great giving Finley time to throw. (17th in adjusted sack rate).
#3 A trend of jumping out to early leads: By quarter, the NC State offense has been a little Jekyll and Hyde. Some of the variance is probably small sample size weirdness, but by quarter their offensive ranks trend from 20th in Q1, 2nd in Q2, 101st in Q3, and 101st in Q4. The defense has the opposite trend, going from 63rd and 117th in the 1st and 2nd quarter to then tightening up nicely to 69th in the third and 2nd in the fourth quarter.
If this trend continues, and maybe turnover luck bounces the wrong way for the first time this season, the Irish could find themselves trailing early against a defense that tends to get better as the game goes on. In Elko and Balis I trust, but this edition of the Fighting Irish has also trailed in just 7% of their plays this season, and we don’t quite know how they would react to an early deficit.
Great write up. Your 3 +/-‘s at the end are very interesting. I’m a little concerned about being able to run the ball well and if we can’t, can Wimbush make enough plays through the air to get a W? I’m not sure. Especially if it’s raining.
Is Chubb a DE? I seem to remember media types before the BC game talking about how Landry was going to wreak havoc and he was pretty much a non-factor. I do realize that the NCSt line overall is better, which obviously is a major factor at play here.
Edit – I should clarify my “I’m not sure” portion. I think he’s capable. This isn’t a “Wimbush isn’t a good passer” statement. I just don’t know if the passing game is to a point where it can go out and win a game if needed, if that makes sense.
I think it’s a valid concern since the D-Line is very talented and disruptive. In the back of everyone’s mind is the type of offensive struggle we saw in the UGA game. But their defense hasn’t really been all that good this year – ranked overall in the 50s by both FEI and S&P+. If they bring their “A” game can they really clamp down on the run? Maybe – Chubb is a DE and is a monster, with 13 TFL and 6.5 sacks – but they don’t seem to be a complete defense like the Bulldogs that can then hold up adequately against the pass while doing so, unless Wimbush and co are totally out of sorts.
To the other point there, they’ve been really good against the run against bad rushing teams, and so-so / untested against a talented running team. FSU moved it well on the ground on them but only ran it 22 times. Louisville also went over 5 YPC but was playing from behind in that one and only had 10 carries by running backs, 15 from Lamar Jackson.
This is a long winded way of saying I think this rushing performance will be more like it was versus Michigan State (who by the way, is rated very highly defensively in all traditional / advanced stats and we manhandled) than Georgia. My worry is more that it could remain a close, higher-scoring game if NC State doesn’t turn the ball over and can find some holes in the passing game. We’ve been very consistent and winning the turnover and red zone battles, and NCSU is very good at not losing at least one of those, and the close game scaries could come back if this is tight in the 4th quarter.
I think the turnover battle could be huge here as well.
I can’t imagine Dave Dorien will mismanage his star DE as spectacularly as Steve Addazio did.
But is Chubb a DOOOOD?
And does Chubb wear his pants correctly?
WE GOTTA KEEP OUR DUDES FRESH FOR THE FOURH QUARTER WHEN WE’RE DOWN BY 20
DUDE ALERT!!!
WHOA WHOA WHOA IT’S A DUUUDE ALERT
Take all my recs
The reasons to worry are probably all somewhat explained by the quality of their opponents. The lack of mistakes indicate they are not sloppy, but the windows for throws will hopefully be tighter, the pressure greater against ND than against some of the others. Also, the offensive and defensive numbers can be similarly explained, my guess is that they have played significant amount of games in garbage time as well. I would not take much solace in the fact that they don’t move the ball in the second half. It is probably more likely they are taking their foot off the gas than the other team is adjusting and shutting them down.
I am inclined to think this game will end up looking a lot like MSU, but perhaps without the turnovers.
The one thing you didn’t mention is where they were in turnover margin. Given they only have 4 turnovers on the year, they should be on top in margin. The fact that it was not worth mentioning implies that they don’t generate a lot of turnovers either. In a turnover free game, we should be able to beat them. Despite a terrible game plan in a hurricane, if we don’t turn it over, we may win or at least go to overtime.
Your assumption is right – their turnover margin is strong, but on the basis of not turning it over versus forcing them. In terms of takeaways per game vs FBS they’re very average (1.13 per game, 76th).
Just watched the highlights from all their P5 games. There was very little garbage time in any of those games. When they’ve pulled away against P5 teams, it’s been late. Which doesn’t mean they’re not good. Good teams do that and teams that do that are good. I guess the point is that poor quality of opponent is probably more stat-skewing than garbage time.
Just watched the highlights from all their P5 games. There was very little garbage time in any of those games. When they’ve pulled away against P5 teams, it’s been late. Which doesn’t mean they’re not good. Good teams do that and teams that do that are good. I guess the point is that poor quality of opponent is probably more stat-skewing than garbage time.
Another thing to consider–we’ve played tough teams this season. They really haven’t and are stepping up. We’re really not.
Im rewatching now too, although I’m just gonna do it one time. One thing I see in the first failed drive is what I mentioned below. They ran pressure up the middle and stopped Adams for a loss of one. Then on third down, they stuffed the middle and blitzed a corner to harrass BW.
“I’m just gonna do it one time” – I see what you did there.
Difference between you and MotS is that he’s a lawyer, and it’s all about the billable hours.
If that’s the only difference between me and MoTS, I really feel sorry for the guy.
Great article – I like the breakdown of how NCSt has done against different quality opponents! One thing that I’m hoping for this weekend – if NCSt is playing mistake-free football with zero turnovers, I really hope that the defense can maintain their red zone stoutness and limit them to field goal attempts.
What’s the game plan to beat ND at this point? Obviously UGA stopped the run and made Wimbush pass – which he couldn’t (and pass catchers couldn’t pass catch well). I think a straw poll would now indicate more confidence in Wimbush’s passing ability. Am I drinking too much KoolAid, or is ND just a really hard out at this point?
It’s probably still trying to do your best UGA impression – focus on stopping the run and confusing Wimbush’s reads and making the pass game beat you one on one. The problem for opponents is that the pass game (vs the next most talented defenses we’ve faced, MSU and USC) is dangerous enough even if inconsistent to make you pay for it. Oh, and also UGA is probably in the convo with Bama as best D in the country and it’s unlikely you have the D-Line disruption and athleticism in the front seven to really disrupt the run game like this.
That’s a very confident view, but we’ve rushed for over 330 yards five times. I think the right move is some combo of loading the box and hoping for Wimbush inaccuracy / mistakes. Even then you still have to deal with a lot of potential runs challenging the perimeter or inside with misdirection and accounting for the QB. Only the best defenses (or really catching ND on the wrong day) I think can survive that way. (this was a very good breakdown of the current issues the offense poses: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/25/16535268/notre-dame-football-2017-offense-josh-adams-brandon-wimbush
Thank you once again for the excellent analysis and breakdown. I also recommend the linked article!
Any thoughts on how the weather might affect the game? The current forecast is a high of 44 with rain possible (40%) in the afternoon. I know we played the NC game in the rain, but I think that may be the only one this year.
I’d be curious to see how we handle line stunts and blitzes in the A/B gaps. Take away the middle, make Adams an east/west runner and see if you can cause some havoc up the middle. You’re going to get destroyed if you try to beat Nelson on the left side so I’d pick my poison and see if I couldn’t make something happen up the middle.
In that case bring in Jones or one of the freshman TEs as a lead blocker
I’m very interested to see if Kelly’s comments about going with 2 RBs in the backfield more now that everybody is healthy is just smoke and mirrors. Those few plays with both Jones and Adams back there against USC were fun.
Hell, give me those 2 in the backfield with Dex in pre-snap motion from the slot. Now that would be fun to watch.
HARRUMPH!
I found it interesting that the linked to article mentions that we have a minimal reliance on zone blocking. I thought we were mainly a zone-blocking team. Did we change or is this simply a mistake?
I’m not an expert, but I’ll give it a shot. With the zone blocking schemes we’ve seen the past few years, it seems like each lineman would engage and move with the opponent laterally, and then the back could pick a hole to go through. With these year’s schemes, you’ll see linemen driving their opponents backwards, with pulling guards and crack-back blocks, all designed for a very specific point of attack. I love it!
I’ll second Mike here. I think the book is to do what USC tried to do: man up on the outside and load the box. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Wimbush hit the post to St. Brown and the back shoulder to Stepherson and that plan had to go out the window. That’s the key – Wimbush doesn’t have to be Joe Montana, he just has to be effective enough to make them pay for playing man-to-man on St. Brown, Claypool, or Stepherson.
That’s why Stepherson’s return and Claypool’s emergence are so critical to the long-term success of this team. St. Brown can beat man-to-man coverage consistently, but Canteen, Finke, and less-developed Claypool (and to a lesser extent Smith) couldn’t. Wimbush’s improvement from “deer in the headlights” to “guy who can hit 3/5 deep shots” is the other side of that. The offense can run on anybody if the defense is forced to be honest. Georgia didn’t have to be honest, Michigan State and USC did.
Consider the early looks to St. Brown against Georgia, Michigan State, and USC – the missed flea flicker, diving post, and in stride post. It did nothing against Georgia because we missed it, opened up Michigan State’s defense a bit, and along with Stepherson’s score completely trashed USC’s defensive gameplan. If you have two or even three guys now who can burn you deep in single coverage, you have a very, very big problem against this offense.
Yep. And honestly, even if you get burned deep a few times I think I’d still try and weather the storm and make BW do it for most of the game. Coaches hate those big explosive plays and I don’t know that they’d have the guts to stick with it, but it’s like making Draymond Green and Iguodala shoot open 3’s when playing the Warriors. They might get hot and make a few in a row but its still preferably to the alternative and you have a hunch in the long run it might not be sustainable.
Yeah, I don’t think Georgia would’ve come off their strategy even if we hit that flea flicker. They didn’t care. USC probably felt extra burned because both passes were scores, and they were concerned about the game getting away from them. They were right, gloriously enough…
The other problem I see with playing man coverage is that even if it works against the pass, if your front doesn’t win decisively against the pass protection like Georgia did, Wimbush will utterly destroy you on the ground. See: Boston College, Michigan State.
I think one of the huge bonuses we had against SC was the fact that we could target a specific player to attack because of his inexperience and the loss of more senior players ahead of him. Is there a similar player on NCSt’s line that we could target in this way? Maybe roll Brock out there to help chip the more elite linemen and leave one-on-one with a less talented DL player?
With NC State that’s probably picking on the secondary more than anyone in the run game. Their line is big and physical, so it would not surprise me to see a lot of early motion and stretching the field horizontally in the run game similar to USC. While they have the talent to rush the QB their adjusted sack rate isn’t great (they mauled FSU, but the Noles line is really struggling this year), and they’ve allowed some good production on QB runs and scrambles. So I’d guess we see a continuation of some of the use of Stepherson and 2 back sets with pre-snap motion from USC with some branching out and building on those concepts, along with some early shots downfield to test the corners and keep the D honest against the run. Then in passing downs they’ll likely try and spy Wimbush, which could open up some throwing windows.
Having Pili in the lineup certainly was a bonus for us, but I would add that we were pretty equal opportunity thrashers of their DL. We abused Rasheem Green and Christian Spector pretty well too. Chubb and Kentavius Street are better than them, but still, it wasn’t just about having a young guy.
BC is obviously nowhere near as good as NC State, but I think you can look at what we did with Howard Landry for some clues on how we’ll approach Chubb. If they line him up on the left, I’d imagine we’ll count on McGlinchey and Nelson to mostly neutralize him. If they line him up on the right, we’ll probably give Kraemsey help with a TE and/or roll the play away from him. How the “other” tackle handles Street might have a lot to do with how successful the offense is.
And, like Mike said, deep shots to keep them honest.
Or, if we’re taking cues from what happened with Landry, we could run right at him and option him.
The only “stat” that mattered during the USC game came during the 3rd quarter. Wimbush began to scramble and before even reaching the LOS, a USC fan a few rows in front of me yelled in exasperation “Can somebody please stop him!?!?!?” Then, after Wimbush picked up the first down, that fan said “Well, this is awful,” and left the stadium with his buddy.
Never in my life have I experienced an ND team so strong that it left opposing fans feeling helpless. That’s a good feeling, but we have several more tough opponents ahead. I hope the Irish can keep rolling.
“tightening up nicely to 69th”
I see what you did there
Total aside:
Post Malone is one of the grossest humans I have ever seen in my life. I couldn’t bring myself to like his music solely because of that.
Then I saw him at a musical festival in Portugal. Dude slaps hard.
Oh, and good win by the Irish. Keep it up.
One very minor nit, btw – Watkins missed last year with a broken arm, not a broken leg.
Great stuff as usual, though!
Ah good catch. I even googled to confirm and saw “humerus” and still went with it. I need a basic anatomy refresher.
^That’s humorous.
Yes, he’s quite the humorist.
He’s pulling your leg.
Not even a joke, just a straight-up fib(ula).
And while we’re offering corrections, “With every opponent desperately trying to slow down the passing game…”—I think that should be running game, not passing game.
Ever since the 1-point loss to Georgia (which still stings), I’ve been looking forward to this match-up with NC State because it’s the best defense — particularly up front — we’ll see the rest of the season. While the Wolfpack D certainly isn’t on the same level with UGA’s, it represents a hefty challenge nonetheless. I’m looking forward to seeing how Brandon Wimbush responds on the first drive or two if NC State sells out against the run and he struggles passing the ball. Will he get back up on his feet and answer the bell, or will the offense be in for a long afternoon? Given his two touchdown strikes against the Trojans — each an excellent, on-the-money throw — I have confidence that the Irish offense will keep rolling. Beat Wolfpack!
I suspect many have already seen it, but here is FiveThirtyEight’s breakdown of our chances: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/notre-dame-isnt-in-control-of-its-playoff-destiny/
TL;DR version – They remain more skeptical of our getting in if we run the table than is the conventional wisdom, I think. They may not be wrong.
Interestingly, beyond the ND game, this weekend the most important games are the Iowa State-TCU game (go Cyclones) and the Florida-Georgia game (go Gators). On the UGA point, they seem to be implying that we either need Georgia to go undefeated or lose two games, which seems right, and since the latter is more likely than the former, we should be happy to see them lose a regular season game. Relatedly, the most important non-ND game currently scheduled is the Georgia Tech-UGA game the last week of the season (though that presumably becomes less of a big deal if UGA loses in the interim).
Devil’s Advocate here – ND finishes 11-1. And the following Conference championships
UGA (13-0) beats Alabama (12-1)
UW (11-2) beats USC (10-3)
TCU (13-0) beats OSU (11-2)
MSU (12-1) beats Wisconsin (12-1)
Miami (11-1 [They had a game cancelled because of, ironically, a hurricane]) beats Clemson (11-2)
UGA = In
TCU = In
MSU = In? (Wins over PSU, OSU, Michigan and presumably Wisconsin)
Is it a coin flip between Alabama and ND? Does Miami get any consideration, even with 1 FEWER game played than normal?
Michigan state is not going 12-1. You can rule that part out. But until/unless we beat nc state I’m not going to let myself worry about playoff standings
You can’t rule that part out, because, in fact, I just included it in my Devil’s Advocate scenario. Make up your own scenario which doesn’t include MSU if you so prefer.
I guess I’m not sure what you mean when you says devils advocate, do you just mean hypotheticals? Either way, FPI gives state a 0.1% chance to win the big ten. 538 has them <1%. There are a lot more likely scenarios that benefit ND than state winning the big 10
Yeah, OK, maybe I meant hypothetical and not Devil’s Advocate. You’re still adamant on MSU not winning the B10, yet you’re engaging in my hypothetical in which they DO win the B10.
When a Powerball jackpot gets above $500mil, do you just complain about the taxes you’d have to pay if you won, rather than what fun you’d have with ~$200m?
It’s a good thought discussion but do we really think MSU can beat PSU AND O$U? In back to back weeks? Ouchie. I think if they even split that set, I’ll be a little impressed.
In the end, it doesn’t especially matter if it’s PSU, MSU or OSU who wins the B10, if they have 0-1 losses, they’re in. I was more trying to set up a solid 3 and then a muddled case for the final spot.
Michigan State running the table is only slightly more likely than Alabama losing 3 games before bowl season. It’s not really worth factoring into one’s analysis. The FPI analysis has this weekend’s Penn State-Ohio State winner being something like 98% likely to be the Big Ten East champ.
But, to play along, 11-1 Notre Dame should get into the CFP over 12-1 Alabama in that circumstance if the committee consistently applies its past criteria. Alabama’s best wins would be 9-3 (at best) LSU and 8-4 (at best) Auburn, whereas ND will have beaten 12-1 MSU, 11-1 Miami, and 10-3 USC. That would make people go nuts.
But, actually, in that circumstance, ND would be the 3 seed over MSU. A playoff with ND matched up against TCU and no potential to play Alabama or Ohio State certainly is fun to dream about.
Imagine the epic meltdown on BSPN if Bama didnt make the playoff with one loss and ND did. OMG
Michigan State should be on playoff probation until further notice after soiling themselves on national television two years ago.
Like how ND soiled themselves in the championship game?
We’re at least more than recruiting cycle removed from that.
Hey we at least scored points against Alabama. Getting shut out completely should get you relegated or something.
The punishment is hiring Ed Orgeron and losing to Troy 6 years later.
The committee has demonstrated that they care about # of losses, quality wins, head to head, and conference championship, roughly in that order. SoS and MoV come in there somewhere too presumably. Maybe more as an “eye-test” component. In this scenario, we’d have head to head wins over Miami and MSU, so should be in over them. I think…
I’m also starting to doubt our playoff chances. I think while losing to UGA looks good now it may be our downfall later. I think Alabama will beat UGA in the sec final and I think it will be hard to justify including a 11-1 ND team that lost to a 12-1 UGA team. I think UGA would get in over us.
I think unless UGA loses twice, we’ll need three conferences to have a 2 loss winner which is unlikely. So I’m just going to enjoy the season and root for chaos.
I don’t think Notre Dame will ever be selected for the playoffs unless it’s undefeated and Notre Dame is not ranked higher than any undefeated conference champion. It would be too controversial and the committee just wouldn’t want to deal with it. You’d make Notre Dame happy and you’d make every other team in college football furious. I’m not saying we should join a conference but not being in a conference makes it a lot harder for us to make the playoffs in my opinion.
tOSU got in at 11-1 after not winning their division. To me that says ND can get in at 11-1. I think 11-1 is the more difficult than getting into the playoffs at 11-1.
This was not a normative statement.
While I engaged above with a hypothetical scenario, I agree – not really worth worrying about if and until we beat Miami and only have 1 loss. Then we need to organize a massive campaign to pressure the committee 😉
Take out an ad in The Observer???
Ooh, this is a sneaky way to cover the prop bet on the “Observer ads taken out by disgruntled alumni.” I didn’t say what they were disgruntled about! I like it.
I don’t think the committee will schedule a rematch of a game that happened in the previous week. Even if Georgia is one of the four best teams in the country, they had their shot against a playoff team in the week before the playoff and lost.
Yeah, this is how I think it would play out too in that scenario. I think recency will matter quite a bit to the committee, and a Georgia loss in the SEC CG would be seen as “well, you had your shot.” Our loss coming in game #2 would be extremely helpful, because we’ve clearly developed as a team since then. We would also have more quality wins than Georgia (should finish with 3-5, while Georgia will likely have 1-2) and a better strength of schedule.
Setting aside whether we would be selected over Georgia, I don’t think the committee would do that to Alabama either – it’s a substantial penalty to Alabama to have to run it back in the semifinals.
Worst case scenario at this point you can end up with three undefeated P5 Champs, so those teams would all be in:
Undefeated SEC Champ (UGA or UA)
Undefeated B10 Champ (PSU or UW)
Undefeated B12 Champ (TCU)
Then one-loss ND competes for the fourth spot with the following possible teams:
SEC one-loss runner up (UGA or UA)
B10 one-loss runner up (PSU or UW)
PAC12 one-loss champ (WSU or WU)
ACC one-loss champ (CU or VT)
You can have scenarios where there are more than 8 teams in the conversation, but the arguments for the extra teams are worse (for instance one-loss OU and one-loss TCU, one-loss TCU has no real argument over one-loss ND and we’ve already given the B12 a spot). Among the 5 teams for 1 spot in this case both the ACC and PAC12 champs very likely fall behind the Irish for the combination of later and worse losses. The B10 runner up both loses in the last week of the season and their best possible win is over the winner of the MSU/OSU game (in the case of UW over PSU, UW won’t have a quality win all season if they lose in the conference championship), so ND is likely in over them.
The only way ND doesn’t control their own destiny is if the committee decides SEC football is just so much better than anything else that a team can lose in the last week of the season and get another chance at it immediately the next week.
I wouldn’t say I have a great deal of faith in the competence of the playoff committee, but I do think the Irish control their own destiny at this point which is just one more thing 538 has gotten wrong (the Great Wall of China has run out of room for chalk tallies here — both sides — so there is no way to keep further count).
1-loss conference champion Clemson will get in over 11-1 ND, almost certainly (basically, only scenario that isn’t the case is if Virginia Tech completely falls apart AND MSU goes 10-2 or better, neither of which are particularly likely). A combo of being conference champion+beating Auburn+being the defending national champ will outweigh a slightly better schedule for ND.
1-loss UGA also likely to get in over ND, because they beat us.
1-loss conference champ Oklahoma, too, is likely to get ahead because of the Ohio State win.
Frankly, if any of those happen, I’d be disappointed, but I’d get it. Either Wazzou or UW getting in over us, though, would be utter BS. 1-loss Oklahoma State is probably the marginal case from the committee’s perspective, but it’d be BS-y as well.
Edited to note that I wasn’t the downvote. Not sure what earned that.
One-loss OU is already baked into the undefeated TCU slot, so no worries there.
One-loss Clemson’s strength of schedule will be worse, their loss will be worse, and their wins will be comparable at best plus they play an FCS team, so they wouldn’t even have that “one more win” argument on their side.
One-loss UGA (or UA) losing in the last week of the season is a valid question, which I allowed originally, but I don’t think you can lose in the last week of the season and get in over a team that lost the second week and then ran through a tougher schedule down the stretch. This is the only one where you have to trust the committee wouldn’t intentionally ruin the playoff to screw ND.
I could be wrong about Georgia, but I totally disagree with you on the Clemson point. The committee clearly does not care much about who you lost to, and they do care about conference championship a pretty good bit (e.g., Ohio State 2014; also, they were definitely going to put Oklahoma in over us in 2015 had we beaten Stanford). It would take Clemson’s schedule completely falling apart and ours really holding up (e.g., USC running the table, 10-2 MSU) to the point where our schedules were really not comparable for us to get in over a conference champion defending national champ.
With Clemson they might not care too much about who you lose to, but they have made a sufficiently big deal about when you lose for me to think that we’d be in good shape over them. When they lost was a sizable part of the justification for the 2014 OSU ranking, which they got because they lost in week two (like ND this year) instead of in the third weekend of October (TCU in 2014, Clemson in 2017).
Maybe Clemson is closer than I was originally giving them credit for, but when we edge them by every measure and they lost embarrassingly in late October it would be a huge mistake for the committee to have them over the Irish if both teams win out.
I pretty much agree with you in this discussion, but the one caveat for Clemson’s “bad loss” is that Kelly Bryant got knocked out of the game, and the committee has said in the past they injuries could be factored in. It’s possible that they could weigh that loss less as a result.
All that said, I think we’re going to have a very good argument against whoever comes out of the ACC regardless of how it goes down. Hell, there’s even a decent chance they’ll have a two-loss champ, would make all of this moot.
If we win out, of course…
Can’t wait until the committee puts a 2-3 loss USC in the playoffs “after factoring in injuries”.
Just kidding, they’d only do that to ensure an SEC or B1G team got in.
I think the conference champ part can be overstated. It seems (and of course the committee could change this) that the conference championship is a tie breaker vs. others in the same conference AND – usually more important vis a vis ND – it adds another quality win to your schedule.
If our schedule holds up, however, our 12 will match other’s 13 (as Kelly likes to say). We may have wins against MSU, USC, Miami (holding up means they end up with 10 wins – MSU is more likely to have 9 though). Most teams will have 3 good wins, so we need a 4th win that looks really good most likely (unless all the right teams lose). Teams that could end up with 9 wins and top 25 = NC State, Stanford.
So we need a strong schedule (and beating it with style like USC sure helps) to overcome other 1 loss teams with lesser schedules – and big wins at the top seem to make a big difference.
Actually, the main written criteria is that preference is given to conference champions. A one loss conference champion would certainly get in over a one loss same conference runner up. A one loss conference champion should get in over a one loss different conference runner up.
That’s right. The standard for a non-conference champion getting in over a conference champ is that the resume of the non-champ has to be “unequivocally better” than the conference champ. The only example we have of that so far is 11-1 Ohio State getting in over 11-2 Penn State and 10-2 Oklahoma. On top of each having one more loss, Penn State took a huge L to Michigan, and Oklahoma lost to Houston, so nobody beyond the Penn State fan base really objected to Ohio State getting in, notwithstanding that Penn State beat Ohio State.
I objected!
But I objected because I wan’t objectivity, not because I thought PSU was better.
Agree completely, good summary.
That’s my point though – namely that the conference championship preference doesn’t pertain much to us but more so among those who didn’t win their conferences.
It explicitly applies to independents – see the third para here: http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/documents/2017/10/20//CFP_Selection_Committee_Protocol.pdf?id=23
Thanks for linking to that. The paragraph seems relatively vague in fact and doesn’t quite speak to what I have in mind. I suppose at best it is used a kind of tie-breaker in practice. That was my point about the number of great wins above. If we have 4 top wins and OSU (hypothetically) a 1 loss team too with 3 top wins then we would be better and the conference champ thing doesn’t come into play.
I suppose the opposite point and the one where it matters for us is when we have 3 top wins and they have 3 top wins and the conference champ. They aren’t going to parse the wins so precisely to see if ours come out slightly ahead of their best wins but just take the relatively equal conference champ.
A major part of 538’s argument is based on the AP poll and that therefore there are still a number of 1 loss teams ahead of us so we need a lot of help. But that is really besides the point because the playoff rankings haven’t come out again. One could imagine that ND is higher than more of those 1 loss teams in the playoff rankings than in the AP poll and then we control more/most of our destiny.
Yes – they say that their rankings will be a lot more predictive once they have the first set of CFP rankings. If ND is the top 1-loss team (or second if Ohio State beats Penn State), we should be feeling a lot better about things. Of course, that would mean that we beat NC State, so we’d be feeling pretty good anyways.
I feel that if they want to make such a big deal of conference championship, they should make it an official elimination game. If you lose your conference championship game, “you had your chance”
ND up to #3 in FEI, 6th in F/+