Notre Dame’s up and down 2017 football season comes to a conclusion Monday afternoon in the metropolitan Orlando area of Florida. It’s the 73rd rendition of the Citrus Bowl (formerly the Tangerine Bowl until 1982) with the Irish meeting Louisiana State in a bowl game for the 4th time since 1997.
Since September 25, 2016 the Tigers of LSU have been without their long-time head coach Les Miles who was fired in the beginning of his 12th season in Baton Rouge. Then defensive line coach Ed Orgeron was given the interim tag for the remainder of the season and officially hired as the full-time coach following LSU’s final regular season game last year.
Notre Dame (+3) vs. LSU
Citrus Bowl Presented by Overton’s
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
Date: January 1, 2018
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Television: ABC
Series: 6-5-0 Notre Dame
Bowl Record: 25-22-1 (LSU) & 17-18-0 (Notre Dame)
Orgeron was able to retain high-profile defensive coordinator Dave Aranda who was just finishing his first year with LSU after signing a 3-year deal for nearly $4 million the previous January. He also brought in offensive coordinator Matt Canada who was coming off a small miracle at Pitt averaging 40.9 points per game and finishing with the No. 3 overall S&P offense in 2016.
It seemed like a solid combination–the rah-rah coach, top 10 recruiting, all surrounded by supposedly elite coordinators. However, the 2017 season hasn’t played out all that joyfully for the Tigers. Not for nothing a bowl win would give LSU their best record since 2013 but a combined 17 points in losses to Mississippi State and Alabama, plus a relatively meager 21 points in an embarrassing loss against (sneaky good 11-2, for what it’s worth) Troy, have put Canada squarely on the hot seat with Orgeron reportedly seeking a new coordinator following Monday’s matchup with the Irish.
3 Matchups to Watch
Josh Adams vs. LSU’s Front 7
You may have heard by now that LSU will be without a trio of starting linebackers in their 3-4 scheme as junior Arden Key, 5th-year senior Donnie Alexander, and 5th-year senior Corey Thompson are out with an assortment of injuries. This trio have combined for 127 tackles and 13.5 tackles for loss and will be replaced respectively by true freshman K’Lavon Chaisson, true freshman Tyler Taylor, and sophomore Michael Divinity.
This would seem like a major advantage for Notre Dame’s offensive line in front of Josh Adams although probably not as much as we’d like to believe. Key missed a third of the season to begin with and Chaisson, Taylor, and Divinity played a lot this year anyway with a combined 65 tackles.
Brandon Wimbush vs. Himself LSU’s Secondary
LSU’s raw passing defensive stats are quite scary featuring in the Top 22 nationally in all of completion percentage, total completions, yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns surrendered, and quarterback rating. Traditionally, the Tigers are known as having a fast and talented secondary.
According to S&P’s pass defense metrics LSU comes in at 24th nationally, still quite good, but not quite as strong as Notre Dame opponents in Georgia (6th), Boston College (10th), or USC (12th) but just ahead of Miami (25th), Michigan State (32nd), and NC State (34th).
Yes, the Irish have played a ton of good passing defenses and Wimbush generally has looked very poor against them.
Facing a Purdue Transfer
The LSU ground game is remarkably consistent which is a big part of the reason why they have the 6th best ground attack according to S&P’s rankings. They’ve faced a lot of tough run defenses and have been between 3.97 yards per carry to 5.59 yards per carry in 10 out of their 12 games. In a lot of ways, they were the anti-Notre Dame this year with few peaks and valleys–just a typical 180 to 200 yards on the ground most games, no more no less.
To me, the Tigers are going to get theirs on the ground it’s how productive quarterback Danny Etling will be on Monday that could make the biggest impact.
Etling will be making his 34th career start and 22nd straight for the Bayou Bengals. He’s actually 7th nationally in yards per attempt and 12th nationally in passer rating but his meager 242 total attempts are a super low number for any quarterback that would consider himself to be a game-changer.
2 Stats to Consider
9 Passing First Downs
The Irish carried the ball a season-high 51 times for a season-high 263 yards in the Music City Bowl against LSU to finish the 2014 season, employing a heavy use of quarterback runs. Could we see more of the same on Monday?
But remember, Notre Dame still made plays through the air back in ’14 against the Tigers. There were 18 completions, including 9 that were for first downs. Wimbush has only completed more than 17 passes in a game twice this season, and he’s averaging 7.1 first downs per game via the pass.
99th in 10+ Yard Plays
The LSU offense isn’t really built for big plays as they don’t pick up many big chunks with just 12.5 plays of 10+ yards per game, coming in at 99th nationally. Not surprisingly–given the recent lack of offensive success in the SEC–the Tigers are only 9th worst among the 14 league teams.
This one of the reasons why many expect a close, low-scoring game. If LSU has success on offense it’ll likely be with a handful of long, clock-killing drives with few big plays.
1 Prediction
It’s been a weird year for LSU who spent most of the season off the national radar only to end up roughly where they were predicted in the summer, starting at No. 13 in the pre-season and heading into bowl season as the No. 16 team in the country. Thanks to an early blowout loss at Mississippi State the Tigers weren’t taking very seriously as a SEC contender even after beating Auburn weeks later. Although they finished just a game out of the division lead it seemed more like 2 games since both Alabama and Auburn were squarely in the playoff discussion.
The advanced stats don’t tell us a lot, the Irish lead in 8 out of the 13 categories below but it’s really close. LSU being favored feels like it has more to do with them winning convincingly down the stretch while Notre Dame comes in stumbling and bumbling from the regular season.
| STAT | NOTRE DAME | BAYOU BENGALS |
|---|---|---|
| FEI Overall | 11 | 29 |
| FEI Defense | 21 | 32 |
| FEI Offense | 13 | 25 |
| FEI Special Teams | 77 | 73 |
| S&P Overall | 14 | 20 |
| S&P Defense | 30 | 17 |
| S&P Offense | 24 | 42 |
| S&P Special Teams | 84 | 81 |
| F/+ Ranking | 11 | 20 |
| DL Line Yards | 27 | 47 |
| DL Sack Rate | 33 | 19 |
| OL Line Yards | 4 | 3 |
| OL Sack Rate | 58 | 103 |
It’s been a relatively positive December for Notre Dame so I’m trying to balance things like the momentum from the recruiting trail bleeding over into this preview. In a sport that often feels only 2 months long being able to spend a month away from playing games is like we’re already into the 2018 season in some ways.
As an aside, I truly believe all non-playoff bowls (well, maybe even those ones too) should allow anyone who is taking a redshirt to participate without losing eligibility. I don’t know if it would make a difference hardly at all but it still should be done.
Taking a look at the F/+ rankings explains a lot about how I’m feeling about this game. Going back through 2009, LSU has been 20th or worse in 2 seasons and after Monday the Irish will have played both of those Tiger teams. This is not a memorable LSU team–and perhaps worse–they still have the look and feel of a Les Miles team with a good defense and okay offense devoid of a quarterback they truly trust to go out and win games.
It’s really not an exciting matchup in the least bit.
I am torn because emotionally I believe Notre Dame wants this game more and that’s typically half the battle during bowl games when the players have been hanging out in central Florida for almost a full week prior to kickoff and finding all sorts of ways to check out mentally. Although, they didn’t show signs of anything like this playing down the stretch the recent news of offensive coordinator being on the way out could drop morale for LSU toward the realization that Orgeron is pretty much a grovel-throated dunce. Some sort of offensive implosion surrounding Canada vs. Orgeron is 100% the best route to a Notre Dame victory.
Bottom line, I cannot trust Brandon Wimbush to provide a competent enough passing attack to balance the offense and keep a good defense from corralling the Irish ground game. A month of preparation for Dave Aranda to confuse Wimbush and slow down Adams & the offensive line is something I’d bet on more than Kelly and Long coming up with one of their best gameplans (that’s executed properly) of the season.
- WINNER: LSU 23 Notre Dame 17
- VS. SPREAD (+3): LSU
- OVER/UNDER (51.5): Under
- SPECIAL, JOSH ADAMS RUSH YDS (51.5): Over
Many thanks for this; am in Mumbai on way back to France after crazy Hindu three day wedding, and the Murtaugh analysis was like a breath of bracing if chilling air. Having said that:
1, was there not some talk of the LSU defense having some issues with running QBs? Would it not be easier for the good BW to resurface if he can find his legs again? (Same and related question for Josh.) When I saw them at Stanford he looked slow and hurt in some ways, I am wondering if there were some physical limitations that the month off might have fixed; or was it related to his loss of confidence?
2, Grovel voiced is good, I can see Big O groveling; funny because he has a gravelly voice as well, did you miss a good opportunity for a double entendre?
3 day wedding? Small affair for Indian standards
My first. No doubt, but the 900 guests and the elephant and the horses drawing the huge carriage got my attention.
I love the idea of allowing red shirts to participate in bowls with no penalty. I can’t argue with your assessment. I’m just hoping ND has more desire than LSU.
I was thinking about potential ‘help’ from ND redshirts:
WR Jafar Armstrong
WR Javon McKinley
DT Darnell Ewell
ROV Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
We need help at receiver, obviously. I haven’t heard an update on Ewell in forever but you can imagine the hope if he played 15 snaps and performed really well. JOK was one of those borderline guys in fall camp who could potentially help for sure.
I’ve always thought eligibility could be determined by a number of games instead of seasons. For example, you could allow scholarship players to play in 48 non-playoff (or non bowl) games over 5 academic years instead of playing 4 seasons over 5 academic years. Or even a mix of the two; where a player would be eligible to come back for a 5th year if they’ve played in less than 37 games or so. A system like that would help athletes/teams with injury situations, late season bloomers and bowl games.
I like that idea. Give the kids a chance to play more.
This is an intriguing idea; I like it a lot.
Or even more precisely, snap counts.
But then you’re talking about wildly different careers for someone who plays in the Big 12 vs someone who is in the B1G West.
So true, but new choices for recruits!
Nice preview was looking forward to it. I definitely like the under in this game more than picking the winner, should be close but I see it like 24-21 or so in either direction.
The ND pass game scares me more than most games with all the injuries and suspensions of 3 of the 4 best receiving weapons and surely LSU is gonna put 8-9 guys in the box and try to shut down the run so oh boy that isn’t going to be fun.
Hoping for the best as always, not really sure any tangible momentum will carry forward into 2018 but it would be nice to get to 10 wins and finish at least on a good note for the outgoing players.
I predict that I’m going to pluck my eyes out in frustration
“Brandon Wimbush vs. Himself” — that pretty much sums up whether ND will win this game and whether ND will have a great or ho-hum season next year.
Speaking of, it’ll be interesting to see just how much growth potential is there. Long mentioned that, common for first years, they weren’t playing with the pace/tempo he wants and they’re hoping to dial it up more in the future too, which I find as interesting to see just how much Long can implement of his own offense under the realm of Kelly still..
Here’s what Ohio State is doing with the 10th assistant coach – https://www.cougcenter.com/2017/12/22/16813100/washington-state-cougars-alex-grinch-ohio-state-buckeyes-urban-meyer.
We’re… (probably) technically promoting Tommy Rees. Fantastic.
(Also I think we’re gonna win this bowl game thanks to the LSU injuries, which, IMO, will ultimately be way more impactful than our WR issues)
Institutional difference and a unique situation/homecoming. That guy wouldn’t come to Notre Dame as the 10th assistant being as he’s from Ohio and getting under the Urban tree is a good career move. Not really sure what the tie to ND is for any and every minor move made.
Bigger picture, it’s doubtful there are too many places where a P5 DC takes a demotion like that, not too fed up that ND can’t and won’t find a way to follow suit right now, because it’s not really possible for 99% of programs.
Sure, but there’s a pretty wide gulf between “hire P5 coordinator” and “hire 25 year-old”. Tommy Rees should be a QB coach somewhere, perhaps, but probably not at the Power 5 level and definitely not at a school like Notre Dame.
If we could get P5 DC’s to join but are using Rees, yeah that’s a problem. Somehow I don’t think that’s the case. I don’t know enough about the division of labor to know if it’s all a big deal but I suspect it’s not worth stressing over. Is this a “difference between a football factory and ND” example? Well, maybe, but if so on a 10th on the field coach? Guess we’ll have to live with that, I don’t see it changing too much.
The ND QB coach seems a minor role too given the importance of the position and the attention the group gets from the head coach and OC. If anything, a young voice that could connect with college kids and have the experience/legit factor of being in those same shoes not too long ago sounds like a kind of innovative and good thing. Whether that’s better suited as a GA spot, again, I don’t know but suspect is probably analyzed more closely than it matters IMO
I hope they’re not using “we’re not a football factory” as an excuse to cheap out on coaching salaries. There’s no good reason, moral or otherwise, that ND shouldn’t be at the top of the payscale for football coaches. There’s no honor in keeping staff salary low because it’s unseemly (or whatever) to pay the coaches so much.
If the logic is it’d be good to have somebody who was recently in the program on staff, sure, I can buy that. But, as you indicate, that’s what the GA positions are for. If you’re going to get a young guy as an assistant coach, it should be somebody who *wasn’t* in the program, so that you can have somebody who might generate some new ideas.
As you indicate, though, this could be making a bit of a mountain over a relative molehill. On the other hand, Bama is doing this – http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2017/12/pete_golding.html and Utah is doing this – http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2017/11/29/kyle-whittingham-gary-andersen-a-potential-candidate-to-join-utes-staff/ etc. and NC State is doing this – https://www.wthr.com/article/nc-state-adds-ex-duke-coach-roof-to-coaching-staff and we’re hiring somebody who in most other professional settings would still be in grad school.
The fact that we have Tommy Rees on staff at all is batshit crazy.
Yea you’d think ND could secure a relatively experienced coach at a position of need (admitting that the “need” for the 10th coach might be different for different teams depending on expertise of head coach and the emphases in the scheme, etc.) and who is a solid recruiter. I know Rees is a special case in terms of knowing ND but is he really at the level of many other assistants that ND could attract? (And who knows maybe they won’t just promote Rees – but I thought that was basically the plan. And perhaps he really is a good fit and will do well but I am a little bit skeptical.)
No Orgeron game is complete without this:
https://youtu.be/HX7wzhMvbzo?t=11s
I’m going to say two words: Dave Clawson
And then I’m going to do this:
That is a high quality GIF, sir.
I’m watching NCSU vs. AZ State, and it appears a lineman is wearing a suit made from Todd Graham’s skin.
I think this is the first skipper of a major bowl game. Probably not the last – http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/12/29/ohio-state-cornerback-denzel-ward-skips-the-cotton-bowl/
I’m starting to feel pretty good about this game. I’m hoping ND plays like they played earlier in the season. They should be rested up and healthy. I can’t see how LSU’s O-coordinator leaving doesn’t have some kind of impact on them.
I think ND was the better team for most of the year. They played a tougher schedule and dominated more early in the season. LSU played a lot of teams that were losing coaching staffs at the end of their season.
Thanks, Russell. Was wanting some cautiously positive attitude!
McIntosh sent home for violation of team rules.
Sure hope Josh and Dexter and Tony are over all their “nagging injuries”…
Wisconsin seemed to have no trouble going down to Miami and winning. I’m sorry to say that they have a much better AD and coach than we do.
Yeah. I’m not ready to throw the AD under the bus yet. You can be a worse AD than Alvarez and be pretty good. But no argument about the coach.
Well they actually had a decent game plan and stuck to it, unlike whatever disaster we tried down there.
The old don’t-throw-picks-and-get-high-level-QB-play gameplan.
After the halftime show, I have a new interest in Clemson baton twirling.