The progression of DeShone Kizer since arriving at Notre Dame has been fascinating. At first, a modestly recruited low 4-star to forgotten backup. After a high-profile transfer suddenly a backup, after an injury suddenly the starter. This off-season momentum picked up for Kizer as a top NFL Draft pick. What an amazing and meteoric rise!
Notre Dame has lost 8 out of its last 11 games and while the problems run far deeper than the play at quarterback the play of DeShone Kizer this year has been curious to watch unfold.
Against Navy his numbers looked plenty fine: 223 passing yards, 70% completions, 3 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. However, there weren’t many people who watched the game and walked away feeling like Kizer was playing at a high level.
The first drive featured a healthy amount of passes–seven in all–culimating in a touchdown. Three out of his first 5 throws were really poor. A slant to Stepherson is thrown behind him, a screen to Dexter is air mailed, and a dangerous seam route to Sanders is also far too high and off target.
The touchdown pass featured great pass protection but even that ball flutters and isn’t a tight spiral.
On the second drive Kizer attempted 5 more passes, two of which are near identical low passes to his left that do not allow the receiver any opportunity for YAC.
Additionally, on the third down prior to kicking the field goal on this drive Kizer has both short routes wide open and doesn’t even turn his head to the left. Compounding the problem, he then ruins perfectly good pass protection by stepping up into the pocket and right in the face of a defensive end forcing himself to 360-spin away and get gang tackled before barely getting the ball out to Smythe’s feet.
On more than one ocassion the broadcast was pointing out blatantly wide open receivers that Kizer was missing with his reads.
Drive #3 featured just 2 passes following Navy’s failed 4th down conversion. Kizer over-throws Stepherson down the seam and gives St. Brown no chance on a third down throw well over his head.
Drive #4 featured only two passes, as well. On this drive the Irish ran the ball 8 times with the running backs–or just over 42% of all running back carries in the entire game.
Stepherson took a screen pass for 6 yards and a nice play-action dump-off to Smythe for Kizer’s second touchdown pass.
Drive #5 saw Kizer go 5 for 5 and finish with a touchdown. A quick in-route, another screen, a sideline pass, another screen, and the crossing route to St. Brown which would end in a head-over-heels touchdown.
Drive #6 would be the final drive and it ended with a field goal. There would be 6 pass attempts from Kizer, plus I’ve included Navy’s only sack on the day in this GIF, too.
Kizer made an admirable quick decision on a nice slant to Hunter, takes a sack, throw his best ball of the day to Stepherson, goes back to Stepherson on a stop route, misses Hunter in the end zone, flies a past over Stepherson’s head, and throws behind Stepherson on a shallow crossing route that was still hauled in by the receiver.
What’s Going On with Kizer?
First, some sort of injury wouldn’t surprise me. Several passes fluttered against Navy and the zip doesn’t seem to be there like it has been in the past.
He hasn’t seemed as comfortable in the pocket as in the past which could mean he’s pressing, or an injury is bothering him. At any rate, something is happening that is affecting his footwork which is leading to some really poor accuracy.
The hot button topic is to ask whether Kizer is regressing. It’s really tough to tell, in my opinion. He clearly doesn’t have the help that was there from last year. The rushing average is down a monumental 1.45 yards per carry which is a huge difference. There’s no doubt that having Will Fuller around makes the deep pass easier and more productive.
The accuracy is really bothersome, though. Take a look at the places that Kizer threw the ball on Saturday against Navy:
This looks more like a passing map we’d see if Malik Zaire came in and had to play the entire game. There is an overabundance of short passes and throughout there is far too much inaccuracy. The deep passing game has been downgraded and that’s okay given the young receivers but this short-passing game can’t really thrive with a lack of accuracy.
It’ll be interesting to see how Kizer’s NFL stock looks by the end of this year where he may be finishing up his Notre Dame career with mediocre performances against good defenses in Virginia Tech and USC among a legacy of a 4-win season. There haven’t been a ton of new scouting reports since the early part of the season when Kizer was being talked about as the possible top quarterback.
His stock is definitely going to take a hit, for sure. It’s possible he drops into a second or third round pick but who knows how that will really play out in the end. If Kizer does end up leaving I’d be very wary of him succeeding, at least over his first few seasons.
He quietly doesn’t have great arm strength, especially for his size. His athletic ability–again combined with his size–is a plus in college but will be diminished in the NFL. For a while, it seemed like Kizer had Big Ben-like pocket presence and scrambling ability but his decision making has been one of the areas he seems to have regressed.
Bottom line, if the accuracy doesn’t improve this isn’t a starting NFL quarterback in the future. I was thinking about this Navy game and junior year Jimmy Clausen would have torched the defense on Saturday. He had phenomenal accuracy and couldn’t cut it in the NFL. Early this season so much of Kizer’s stock was wrapped up in potential but the more he plays we’re seeing that maybe his ceiling is a lot more limited than most thought.
Kizer’s just not consistent enough yet, any given throw could be off the mark or right on the money, often times unpredictably so as to not knowing what kind of throw you’ll get. He’s still mostly good, but tantalizes with those inaccuracies to leave one wanting just a little bit more.
I’ll be interested to see what becomes of what you mention on about his progressions and reads. It does seem like he’s reliant on that first read and locks in on it for a long while before shifting to scan for other targets. Not sure if that’s just my impression and overly picky, or if it is an accurate aspect of his game.
Regardless, bottom line is this isn’t an NFL ready player right now. However, who knows, the NFL has a wildly inaccurate system of pre-scouting QB’s (look no further than Jared Goff) and still puts a premium on over-drafting QB’s so, it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing if he’s still pegged as a first round pick. I agree with the article that I don’t see him ready to succeed in the NFL at this time. One more year of college seems best for the player and team at this point.
As a Steelers fan, I’ve compared Kizer to Ben as well. Certainly in physical stature they’re similar, but one major difference emerging is pocket presence. Ben will hang tough, scan for any and every available option, be willing to take a hit and still find a way to deliver an accurate ball almost every time. Kizer doesn’t seem to have that knack, though not many do. I would think (and hope) that 12 more games next year would go a long way to help Kizer develop into a bonafide NFL 1st rounder. And, if he comes back to ND, his 2017 weapons ought to be better/more experienced than the very green, unproven 2016 skill players, which will probably help him look better as well. I’d imagine a 2016 where Kizer has Fuller+Alize Jones and his numbers are surely a lot better.
Agreed on all points. He could still go in the first round based on the notion that NFL coaches believe they can fix a lot of the inconsistencies in a college QB’s game given that player has prototypical size and athleticism. See EJ Manuel.
I remember 2 times the broadcasters said Kizer had guys wide open. Both times I questioned what the broadcasters were seeing.
He wasn’t even throwing tight spirals watming up or staying loose on the sideline. It was odd watching the receiver he was throwing to send back a tighter ball than Kizer was throwing to him.
A few thoughts:
1) Last year Kizer had pretty great protection all year, Will Fuller taking the top of defenses or clearing out area for other guys, and arguably the best running game in the country. It feels like a domino effect that’s shaken Kizer’s confidence – even in the Duke game at 1-2 it felt like Kizer still hung in the pocket and really stepped into a few incredible throws (some bad decisions also, but he looked more like a raw potential 1st rounder then than he does now).
2) I’ve heard a few people who know things talk about footwork issues, and I think those have been worsened by more consistent pressure this year. Kizer’s pocket presence was good for a RS freshman last year, but he now seems to be unsure when to scramble or not, or how to get out of it. The play highlighted from that second drive it seems like Kizer had seen open lanes to scramble on previous plays and made up his mind to scramble if his first look wasn’t wide open (and nothing was there). Not good!3)In this game I really saw very few throws like that, and it seems like touch is an issue – balls are lofted that really shouldn’t be
3) I don’t worry a ton about throwing tight spirals. Peyton Manning really never threw a tight ball his whole career, and that throw to THJ for the first TD was a solid B+ (wide open, but on the money). What concerns me is the lack of touch and indecision translating into throws – loft when not needed or unwise, and other passes gunned (but inaccurate).
4) I do wonder if Kelly’s decisions this year have come at some cost for Kizer’s performance. In previous years BK has been so hands-on with QBs, and he’s now spread thin with an interim coach on defense, special teams a total disaster, etc.
5) Even with the disappointing lack of progress and inconsistency this year, I think NFL types will still take him very high. It just takes one team to fall in love with him, and this is a league that saw EJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, and Jake Locker taken in the 1st round. Guys with an NFL frame and some athleticism like Logan Thomas who couldn’t throw at all in college have been drafted in the 4th. I’d be shocked if he fell to the 3rd round barring injury or developing the yips or something.
If it’s Kelly being spread thin, what are they paying Sanford for?
I’m not sure why Sanford came, unless he had no idea he’d be a glorified QB coach.
I agree it’s a big issue if the HC not being as hands-on with the QB = significant drop-off. Not sure if that’s the case or not, but if that hypothesis is true, yeah, not a great reflection on Sanford.
Is it not a great reflection on Sanford, or not a great reflection on BK’s management? Sanford is all the way around considered a rising star, or at least was prior to coming to ND. It’s really odd to me that BK would be so “hands-off” on one side of the ball that it falls apart, yet so “hands-on” on one side of the ball that our “OC” isn’t really the OC. Sure, HC’s often call plays on their preferred side of the ball, but it’s not BK calling plays, it’s our WR coach. It’s just a weird setup.
I’ve never seen a set up like this before–anywhere, even in business, except at Blackberry, and that blew up fast.
I am wondering if the thought about some nagging injury does not have some merit. Specifically, on at least two occasions in the last couple of games random in-between network TV shots have shown him moving his throwing arm in a circle like people do when they are testing the arm to see how it is.
Your reminder that Kelly has never seen a quarterback improve from year-to-year while at ND.
At the beginning of the year, with the hype, I thought that Kizer would be leaving and picked as a first rounder. However, as the season has gone, I think that he has a few areas that need improvement. Yes, he has size, running ability, and passion to do well (which would help him in the NFL), but he needs a lot of work on aspects like footwork, decision-making, speed/touch, taking snaps from under center, and knowing when to throw the ball away. His accuracy seems to be a bit misleading – while he is completing a high percentage, some of his completions are bad (behind the receiver, at their feet), not allowing the receiver to run after the catch; also, some of his incompletions are very bad (way over someone’s head, bouncing). All in all, he is a very good QB, but if we are going to be nit-picky, he needs to improve (Quinn and Clausen were great QBs, but could not cut it in the NFL).
If I remember correctly, I think guys like Manuel, Ponder, and Locker all went pro after their senior years – my guess right now is that Kizer will come back to work on some of the issues noted above. The NFL wants QBs who can start as rookies (see Prescott, Wentz, Kessler, etc.) – if Kizer was drafted, he would have to sit and learn right now.
Great article, Eric. That completion / field graph is eye opening.
@MB: those are good points as well. I agree that the protection (plus a more dangerous run game) and Will Fuller were all big differences from year to year. That said, it seems like Kizer is getting worse as the season goes on. Whether or not that’s injury is hard to say.
I only saw the first 1.5 quarters of the game, so I’m curious to see how people feel about the rest of the team. I, for one, would say the defense underperformed relative to the talent they have, but Eric did call out that we needed to get to 30 points.
Re your question in the final paragraph, it seemed that Hunter was the only guy getting open all game, or maybe it was just that he was the guy Kizer locked in on most of the time. Stepherson did get open a few times, including for the wide open TD if he hadn’t been overthrown pretty badly.
I was surprised we couldn’t score TD’s more easily given how bad Navy’s defense is rated.