The 2017 season is nearly upon us and that means America’s most prestigious (don’t laugh!) individual trophy is going to be handed out in a matter of weeks. Before we get started here’s a quick recap of the recent history of the Heisman trophy:
Since 2000, we have seen 14 out of the 17 winners from the quarterback position.
Reggie Bush (technically vacated), Mark Ingram, and Derrick Henry are the lone non-QB winners.
The last 10 winners have been non-seniors.
Tier I
Sam Darnold, QB, USC (+400)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (+700)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (+800)
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (+800)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State (+800)
Darnold certainly doesn’t offer much bang for your buck and for this guy is a bit too much of a favorite at this point before the season. The hang up with him is the 7 teams on the USC schedule inside the Top 36 of the recently released AP Poll. Working in his favor is the (relative) lack of “name” teammates heading into the season. If the Trojans finish 11-1 or better the award is likely Darnold’s easily.
To me, Barkley is hilariously overrated and not worth a bet. For one, he’s a running back and therefore Penn State would have to go undefeated. His stats last year (almost 1,900 yards from scrimmage and 22 TD’s) were very good but not Heisman level. He also has a QB (see below) to split some votes and as is usually the case tailbacks will struggle a little bit after carrying such a heavy load the year prior. He’s also high primarily due to his Rose Bowl performance which is typical college football pre-season dumbness coming into play.
Mayfield and Barrett are the smart bets among our Tier I guys as national title contending QB’s with a lot of experience and not many options from teammates to split votes. They also face each other in week two–will the winning quarterback win the Heisman? Since I’m picking the Buckeyes to go unbeaten until the playoffs my pick is for Barrett to win the award.
I’d stay away from Lamar Jackson. The odds are stacked against him to repeat with such a huge magnifying glass on him and he lost his top running back and top three wideouts from 2016. There’s about a 5% chance he can top his 5,000 yards and 51 touchdowns from a year ago.
Tier II
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (+1200)
Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama (+1400)
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama (+1600)
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State (+1800)
Jake Browning, QB, Washingtin (+1800)
Jarrett Stidham, QB Auburn (+2000)
Derwin James, S, Florida State (+2000)
You have to think that Scarborough and Hurts will cancel each other out. Unless, Hurts really struggles throwing the ball–and he was a lot better last year than I remembered.
Guice is a good choice if you want to ride a running back for some money. He averaged 7.5 yards per carry last year and should get plenty of touches without Leonard Fournette around. He could also get a massive you-just-beat-Alabama performance on his resume.
After Barrett, I would take Francois as the favorite. A dynamic performance in the opener against Alabama (even in a loss, perhaps?) could put him right up at the top. Plus, he’s a sophomore quarterback which has been common in recent years without a bunch of well known teammates.
Browning finished with the most touchdown passes among Power 5 quarterbacks last year and “only” placed 6th in the Heisman voting. He might get near that mark again but I just don’t see an immobile quarterback coming close, especially with the Huskies lack of marquee games this fall.
Stidham is an interesting choice. He’s bound to put up some big, big numbers for Malzahn and he’s another sophomore quarterback. I feel like he could be the poor man’s Lamar Jackson this year–someone who puts up huge numbers for a non-national title contender and wins the award anyway.
You’d think Derwin James with this high of odds would be a laugher but Jabrill Peppers somehow finished 5th last year based off…well…I’m not really sure. James had an amazing true freshman season and is coming off an injury that caused him to play only 2 games last year. If he doesn’t feature on offense or special teams he has zero shot.
Tier III
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (+2500)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (+2500)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (+2500)
Chubb’s offensive line isn’t good enough so he’s a hard pass.
Rudolph is a fun pick if you’re so inclined. He’s a nice mixture of playing in a pass-happy offense, in a high-flying league, on a team that should win a lot of games. He’ll have to jack up his numbers quite a bit, though. He’s secretly more efficient than he has been explosive.
Rosen is arguably undervalued due to the performance of the Bruins last year when he missed half of their games. If he has things click in his junior season there’s a lot of money to me made here. On the other hand, Rosen has never shown he’s able to produce up to his 5-star recruiting ranking.
Tier IV
Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State (+3300)
Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State (+3300)
Kamryn Pettway, RB, Auburn (+3300)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (+3300)
Shane Buechele, QB, Texas (+5000)
Cam Akers, RB, Florida State (+5000)
McSorley is off-set by Barkley as is Pettway by Stidham. I’m sure Nick Fitzgerald is a good player but if Dak Prescott can only get to 11th in the Heisman voting there’s no chance for Fitzgerald.
Falk is intriguing but hasn’t put up the insane numbers required for a player in his position in the Leach offense to truly threaten a trip to New York City.
Buechele is a really, really good choice this late in the odds. He’s a sophomore on a high profile team and could be transformed with the new Horns coaching staff.
Who is Cam Akers? He’s a true freshman! How could a freshman running back win this award with Francois as his quarterback?
Sleeper Picks
Quinton Flowers, QB, USF
Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State
Ronald Jones II, RB, USC
Quadree Henderson, WR, Pittsburgh
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M
Brandon Wimbush, QB, Notre Dame
Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon
James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington
These are the next best 11 players who have a shot at the Heisman. Flowers is one of my G5 sleeper picks, however, he had such a good season a year ago and wasn’t even in the conversation. Oliver probably has it in him to match Ndamukong Suh’s senior year production. My question with him is will he be motivated enough with such a long time until he gets to play in the NFL.
Weber and Jones should probably be in the conversation based on talent and program if it weren’t for their much more high profile teammate quarterbacks.
Quadree Henderson is my favorite darkhorse selection. He needs way more touches in Pitt’s offense but he scored a touchdown as a receiver, running back, kick returner, and punt returner last year. He’s super dynamic.
I wouldn’t argue with Bovada if they sneaked Kirk into the bottom of their odds. He’s a terrific college receiver who has done a lot of damage on special teams.
Wimbush is a sophomore quarterback!
Like his program, Freeman took a huge step backwards last year seeing his rushing yardage cut in half. Still, he did rush for over 1,800 yards in 2015 so there’s a chance he regains that form.
Washington’s big play-ability (2,5674 yards last 2 years with 19.8 per catch) has to put among the top 2 or 3 wideouts to be in the conversation. He would need to do something on special teams to help himself out, though.
I feel like Myles Gaskin deserves more love. He has put together back-to-back 1,300 yard seasons and with a slightly bigger junior year could become Washington’s all-time leading rusher. He could be the rare running back to be able to outshine his Heisman candidate quarterback teammate.
The Heisman Trophy has lost its luster over the years, IMO. My gripes with the award are as follows:
1. The ceremony itself is unnecessarily long.
2. Not considering post season play in an era where basically every team makes a bowl is a joke. Think about how many Heisman winners have laid eggs in their bowl games.
3. As mentioned above, the award is basically only awarded to two positions with a heavy emphasis on QBs. Think about how dominant Larry Fitzgerald, Suh, and Clowney were only to get passed up by a QB or RB.
4. The regional bias is obvious. If you’re not playing for USC then you might as well not even try in the West.
I could go on but I don’t want to write an essay.
“4. The regional bias is obvious. If you’re not playing for USC then you might as well not even try in the West.”
McCaffrey, Mariota, Luck (x2), LaMichael James, Kellen Moore, Toby Gerhart, Colt Brennan & Dennis Dixon have all been finalists in the last 10 years to 1 for USC – Marquise Lee.
I can get on board with much of that. The ceremony shows an absurd amount of self-importance – this isn’t the Congressional Medal of Honor, folks. I definitely agree that they should move it to after the bowl games to get one more very significant data point for the voters.
What I disagree slightly with is the regional bias and the position thing. I do think there’s some regional bias, but I think it’s mostly offset by having voters from all regions. I don’t think there’s that much bias within a region; there’s a pretty good cross-section of voters from all over the West Coast, for example, which is why we see the diverse vote-getters from there that DrIck cited. As for the position complaint, that’s broadly true, but that’s not recent and it’s not one of the reasons the award has lost its luster. I think it has become way too QB-focused lately, but it was always essentially a QB/RB award.
To wit… Of the 82 Heismans that have been awarded, 43 have gone to running backs (TB/HB/FB), 33 to quarterbacks, 3 to receivers, 2 to ends (Leon Hart and Larry Kelley from the single platoon days, when they were DE/TEs). The last one went to Michigan CB Charles Woodson in 1997; he wouldn’t have had a snowball’s chance at it, though, had he not also been an elite punt returner and occasional wide receiver. It’s always been a ball-carrier’s award.
It either still has its luster or never had it to begin with.
1. Is it? I really don’t know. Isn’t it wrapped up in an hour?
2. Probably right, but handing out the Heisman in mid-January has its downfalls, too.
3. It’s largely been this way forever.
4. Well, college football is a very regional sport! I generally think the Heisman does a good job of embracing that.
We had a QB play a handful of games, leave for military duty, and still win the Heisman. Ty Detmer won it over Rocket from a small school with 28 interceptions.
The Heisman has always been kind of dumb. But it’s our dumb!
If I’m trying to pick the guy who I think will be the best player in the country, I would put my money on Ed Oliver. Dude is absolutely ublockable. Of course, a DT from Houston isn’t going to win the Heisman. For the best value bets, I’d probably go Francois and Stidham. Those two guys are the ones I’d probably put my money on.
I like Baker Mayfield to win – he’s improved every year, is super comfortable in that system with Lincoln Riley, and plays a soft schedule. Even if he has a bit of dud against OSU his final stat line will be crazy and the Sooners will be in the playoff again. If he stays healthy I think he’s at the very least a finalist again. Of those first tier guys I’m skeptical of Barrett – I think Urban will want to be run-first and play decently conservatively on offense since the defense should be pretty lights out. Against great defenses that force Barrett to win with his arms he’s come up short in a lot of big games.
I’ll join the Francois bandwagon too, although facing Bama in Week 1 is not good. For a super darkhorse I like Justin Hebert from Oregon – he should be good in Taggart’s scheme, has a lot of talent, and they’ll be a bounceback candidate like ND. They could give Stanford or Washington an upset and pile up numbers against bad defenses.
In the last 15 years, how many Heisman winners were in the top 5 or 10 of Vegas odds before the season? Maybe Henry, Mariota and Bradford? Does any site keep Vegas odds for years past? I can’t check at work, gambling sites are blocked.
If anyone is still reading this article. TheRinger answered my question for me.
https://www.theringer.com/2017/8/29/16212744/preseason-heisman-watch