We’re just about at the finish line for the regular season, and man, it’s been a weird one. I think the epitaph of this season is going to be one of unrealized potential; we all knew this wasn’t going to be a playoff team – not with what it lost on both sides of the ball – but we expected more than we’ve gotten, or at least we expected a better path what we’ve gotten. At the same time, SP+ had our projected regular season record at 9-3 before Louisville and we’re poised to better that, plus this is going to be one of Kelly’s best all-around teams statistically, so maybe we should be happier? Tough for all of that to polish the turd of the Ann Arbor performance, of course. Like I said, it’s been a weird one.
The silver lining here is that perhaps 2019 has set up a big springboard to 2019; there are pro decisions yet to be made (or at least announced), but there should be a lot of high-performing talent returning to face a top-heavy but workable schedule. We’ll dig into that more in the post-bowl-season, too-early 2020 preview. For now, we’ll take one last look at the advanced stats projections for the remainder of the regular season.
Recapping the methodology again: These aren’t actual SP+ win probabilities, as SP+ creator Bill Connelly doesn’t publish those regularly after his preseason previews. We used a slightly tweaked version of the formula that the Reddit guy who did these last year reverse-engineered to get close to published probabilities. That formula does some probability magic on the differential in SP+ rating for the two teams (with a bump for home field), and voilà. The FPI win probabilities are updated weekly by ESPN, so those are the real deal.
Post-Week 13 Update – SP+ Matrix
As you move down each column, you find the probability of Notre Dame owning that many wins at that point of the schedule. In the first row, you can see that the probability of owning 0 wins through week 1 is 0% and one win is 100%, since we already won. Same for the New Mexico row, and so on. In the last row, we’re tracking how much the probability of each win total has changed from the previous week. This is largely a function of our own outcomes, the quality of play that led to those outcomes, and SP+’s changing perceptions of our opponents.
We now have an 85.7% chance of winning out. Since, you know, there’s one game left, and the opponent kinda stinks.
Post-Week 13 Update – FPI
And for the first time this season, FPI is in virtual lockstep with SP+ about how things will play out. Shocking.
Week by Week Game Trends – SP+
Week by Week Game Trends – FPI
Closing Thoughts
This team could’ve gone one of two ways after the Michigan game, and it very nearly went the wrong way – I’ve wondered how this month might’ve gone if Ian Book hadn’t led maybe the drive of his career in the waning moments of the Virginia Tech game (who, by the way, is now 8-3 and ranked). The Michigan performance will forever remain a blot on this season, just as the 2017 Miami and 2012 Alabama performances did on the those seasons. At the same time, a 10-2 season and 32-6 over the last three seasons are nothing to sneeze at, and I think we should take a moment to enjoy that on Saturday evening if it indeed comes to pass. Credit to these players, individually and collectively, for finding the resilience to rebound in resounding fashion in November.
Great stuff, enjoyed these all season long!
It is weird that most projected 10 wins, and yet now on the brink of that, it feels like the season didn’t quite live up to expectations. (Admittedly some of us – including myself – projected 9 wins, and I’d happily find myself wrong this Saturday. Even then, my expectations inflated after the Georgia game only to come crashing down.) But winning consistently and with regularity, these are not words that I’ve been able to use about ND in multiple decades. It’s good to be back to a place where I can admit wanting more than 10 win seasons, and for that, it still feels like a success.
I am wondering on a sane discussion board how much the loss to MIchigan really ‘ruins’ the season. As you say 10-2 is great, most teams would switch places with us, and given the CWB as the almost certain destination against Iowa State or Okie State and a likely 11th win, even better. Quite frankly, I think most fans had GEorgia down as an almost certain L and Michigan as a likely L before the season. Army probably shifted it, but still.
To me, if the Michigan game played out like the Goergia game, change to win at the end and we just didn’t cash in, it would feel better than the complete no show. My feeling is that the game showed our Overton Window against good teams on the road still ranges from close win to blow-out loss, with the latter too likely. I don’t think if we played the Michigan game 100 times, in any time would we win the way they beat us.
I do think we have changed the Overton Window against mediocre opponents to blow-out win to close loss, which is a marked improvement from medium win to medium loss.
I don’t think Michigan is elite by any standard so lumping them with Clemson, Alabama, etc. is not right. I am not sure how we overcome that hurdle. It is critical that we do, if only for the mental health of the fan base.
I don’t necessarily think anything you said was wrong, but more to the point the Michigan game needs context. “I don’t think if we played the Michigan game 100 times, in any time would we win the way they beat us” is a true statement, but if you play that game 100 times, how many are going to be in a driving rain storm? That’s not to excuse result (both teams had to deal with same conditions) or the ND gameplan (probably only makes it more damning) but it still holds. That probably was the 100th worst game imaginable that unfolded. Replay it a bunch and it would only be better. The only variables that change would be positive ones because I can’t imagine everything unfolding worse.
That said, at some point it would be nice to take the next step and win a big game. In that way, I’m kind of optimistic. The default for next year is probably 10-2 with losses to Wisconsin (at Lambeau) and Clemson. It feels like the only surprise will be a good surprise if they can knock off one of those two teams.
I mean I guess there’s a chance they lose @USC or one other random game they shouldn’t, but overall it kinda feels good in a weird way that the only unexpected result is a positive result if they can finally win a close game against an elite team that they’ve losing close to these past few years (FSU, Clemson*, either Georgia game)…But you do have a point that there’s still that fear a Miami/Michigan game could pop up and make all the progress feel undone and no one can confidently say that we’re out of those woods that Clemson won’t win 45-10 in South Bend next fall or something like that. Def. within the range of realistic scenarios, unfortunately. But to me even that seems overly paranoid since Clemson doesn’t beat lots of ACC teams that badly.
(* I mean the regular season, though I guess if you’re feeling generous the progress shown was a competitive game besides what like 10 disastrous minutes)
@USC is going to be hard next year. Kedon Slovis is already probably a better QB than Book, and has more runway for improvement. Their team was really young this year. They’ll be a better team next year than Wisconsin.
Possibly. Still going to be pretty thin on both lines, and they’re losing Pittman and Vaughns. I know, it’s SC, and they have always have talent on the bench, but defending those two and ASB at the same time is a nightmare.
I would expect them to be better next year though, agreed there.
I agree that the other 100 times all the results would be better. I really don’t want to imagine a worse outcome. However, you generally want the range of outcomes, positive and negative to be the same agains teams that are really a peer school football wise over time. My point is we don’t play to that range against good teams. I would be happy with close win to close loss range, but I am dissatisfied with the current range. Happy with the improvement the last two years against the mediocre teams, but we need to cut the downside against good teams or start winning by large margins.
I do think we need to improve the talent, particularly at the skill positions. CB next year scares me to death.
For me, the loss took a lot of wind out the sails. 10-2 or 11-2, even 10-3 is a lot to be happy about. I can live with a close loss on the road to a Top 5 team. Those happen, and we had a chance to win the game. Not being competitive against Michigan leaves the season with a hollow feeling.
As for Clemson, Wake, Syracuse, BC and a few more would disagree with you. The only tough game they got in conference was UNC.
Although I skip over the probability stuff, I have really enjoyed your commentary, Brendan. Many thanks.
To DC Irish’s very good question — I think I think about this season kind of like 2012. I loved that season. Then I flew across the ocean for the Orange Bowl, and yes, that sucked bad, really like Michigan this year in terms of my expectations. And yet I still have really positive memories of 2012. I truly hope we beat the Tree, and then we will have beat a string of foes in 2019 who we really need to beat. And yes, these players will have picked themselves up off the scrap heap.