Football Recruiting Rivalries: Ohio State

Welcome back to our deep dive series on Irish football recruiting rivalries. There are a few key schools who make you go all Captain Kirk when they sign a Notre Dame target, because DAMMIT THEY DID IT AGAIN. We’re talking about those schools. We kicked off the series with a review of the Stanford recruiting rivalry, continued by poking the Wolverine(s), then circled our Conestoga wagons to limited effect. Stanford and Michigan were relatively happy stories. Oklahoma was a darker tale but ended with a few rays of daylight peeking through. Today we look at Ohio State. Grab your flashlights, folks.

Methodology

I’m going to include every commit who had offers from the other team in the win/loss counts, even if I know those offers weren’t really committable in some cases. This is because while I know that in some cases, I’m aware that neither I nor anyone else truly knows the status of all offers. Plus I have much more intimate knowledge of Notre Dame recruiting than opponents’ recruiting, of course, and it would be intellectually dishonest of me to say “they got recruit X because we didn’t push” and ignore the potential for that to happen in the other direction as well.

I broke the Kelly Epoch down into three distinct chunks to compare these rivalries: the 2011-14 classes, which we’ll call the Diaco Era, the 2015-17 classes, which we’ll call the BVG Era, and the 2018-20 classes, which we’ll call the Revival Era. Notre Dame’s on-field record in those three eras are, in order, 37-15, 22-16, and 22-4. Keep those in mind as you consume the other info here, as they’re obviously major factors in themselves. Note that while I’m using the DC’s names, we’re still looking at recruits on both sides of the ball in those eras. It’s just a convenient nomenclature.

Finally, we’ll cap each review with a quick look at the 2018-2020 cycles. Those are the ones that coincide with a better on-field product and a more recruiting-focused coaching staff, which should give us more of a sense of what is possible when things are going well.

The Scoreboard

Ohio State isn’t the most consistently victorious rival in this series – that honor goes to USC – but we’ll forgive you if you felt like they are. To be honest the 3:2 advantage they hold in the Kelly Epoch is smaller than I thought it would be, although that’s hardly cause for celebration. The Irish have won the raw number count with the Buckeyes only three times in Kelly’s ten recruiting cycles; that’s rough, but as you might expect, the picture gets gloomier when you look at the quality of the recruits.

Wins and Losses

This analysis is not without a silver lining, sort of; Kelly’s performance against the Buckeyes in terms of raw numbers has actually trended steadily upwards, surprisingly. I’m not entirely sure why that is, as little presents itself in the way of an obvious explanation. Notre Dame hasn’t focused in the Midwest more, Ohio State hasn’t really focused away from the Midwest more, etc. There’s the repeating theme of having better recruiters on staff in the Revival Era, but that doesn’t explain the 13 percentage point increase in defensive wins from the Diaco Era to the BVG Era, which is as counterintuitive as it gets. Ultimately I don’t think raw numbers tell us very much about the story here.

Quality Control

And now we see numbers that align more closely with the eye test, as it were. We’ve always trailed Ohio State in recruit quality during the Kelly Era, which is hardly surprising; they’ve been a top five regular in class rankings since Meyer arrived, and quite frequently have landed in the top three. What is notable is that the differential on both offense and defense took a dive from the Diaco Era to the BVG Era and climbed back up in the Revival Era, slightly on offense and substantially on defense. That’s the good-ish news.

The bad news, quite frankly, is that the Irish still lose too many battles with the Buckeyes for kids who are a good fit for Notre Dame. That’s mostly due to on-field performance and NFL prospect development. Elite recruits want to see a program that wins and turns out high draft picks. As ISD’s Jamie Uyeyama pointed out recently, Ohio State has a wall of framed photos of recent defensive backs who have been first-round draft picks. Notre Dame hasn’t produced a first-round defensive back since Harrison Smith in 2011 and hasn’t had a first-round cornerback since Tom Carter in 1993. Similar draft disparities exist for defensive ends, linebackers, wide receivers, and running backs. Notre Dame has started to improve here – Jerry Tillery was their first first-round defensive lineman since Renaldo Wynn in 1998, and they’re almost certain to add at least one more this year and maybe two if Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem live up to expectations. But it’s a hill the Irish need to climb to do better against Ohio State.

Highlights/Lowlights

Lemon juice on your paper cut in the form of some of only the five-star wins for Ohio State. I’ve also included their home states to make a point.

• WR Julian Fleming, Pennsylvania, 2020: Visited Notre Dame as a sophomore in 2017 but that’s as far as it got. The other finalists were Alabama, Clemson, and Penn State.
• DE Noah Spence, Pennsylvania, 2012: The Irish had some traction but never quite enough, as he committed to Ohio State about a week after an in-home visit from Kelly, Diaco, and Kerry Cooks.
• OT Paris Johnson, Ohio, 2020: Johnson never formally decommitted but briefly opened up his recruitment after Urban Meyer left Columbus and talked about a potential visit to South Bend. Rumor from reputable sources has it that the staff was interested but backed off after concerns about the direction his recruitment was headed. Given that he visited Tennessee (twice), Georgia Tech, Georgia (twice), Alabama, and LSU (twice) in four months when he wavered, they may have been on to something.
• DE Nick Bosa, Florida, 2016: Never gave Notre Dame the time of day, but as the 49ers just took him #2 overall it’s kind of hard to say he made a bad choice.
• OT Nick Petit-Frere, Florida, 2018: Came very close to picking Notre Dame, but two things hurt the Irish: Harry Hiestand heading back to the NFL shortly before signing day, and Greg Schiano’s connections to the Floridian’s support system. Had the connection to Schiano not been there, or had Hiestand stayed or left earlier in the cycle, maybe things would’ve been different. Even so, NPF is the kind of kid Notre Dame has to win – he was a perfect fit.
• CB Jeffrey Okudah, Texas, 2017: Talked about a Notre Dame visit and hosted Irish coaches a couple of times, but never came close to having the proverbial hat on the table.
• DE Chase Young, Maryland, 2017: Ohio State beat out Alabama in a hotly-contested battle for Young, who is slated to start this year and looks likely to continue their parade of first-round defensive ends.
• LB Baron Browning, Texas, 2017: Camped at Notre Dame in the summer before his senior season and it looked for a minute like the Irish would have a chance, but alas… He never took an official and that was that. Expected to start at Mike for them this year.
• DE Zach Harrison, Ohio, 2019: Yes, he’s a five-star from Ohio, but Notre Dame did have a real shot early here. Ultimately they couldn’t hold his interest enough.
• CB Shaun Wade, Florida, 2017: Wade camped at Notre Dame before his senior season and then returned for an official visit for the Michigan State loss that put VanGorder at the edge of the precipice. Shocker that we lost this kid.
• WR Garrett Wilson, Texas, 2019: Wilson visited for a spring junior day, but again, interest never went beyond that.
• LB Raekwon McMillan, Georgia, 2014: Notre Dame offered early in the process but could never get him to campus.
• DE Adolphus Washington, Ohio, 2012: You may remember the name as a result of his suspension for the 2015/16 Fiesta Bowl due to a solicitation charge (not that it mattered). Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but… He never visited and never even briefly considered Notre Dame.
• S Tyreke Johnson, Florida, 2018: Johnson camped at Notre Dame before his senior season but never returned for an official visit that fall. This recruitment always bugged me a bit, because Johnson gushed about Todd Lyght, his primary recruiter, and even went so far as to call him a “father figure.” I really thought we’d have a better chance, but a strong connection with the recruiter doesn’t always result in a strong connection to the school.
• OG Wyatt Davis, California, 2017: Davis also camped at Notre Dame and was a former teammate of Irish S/LB DJ Morgan, which gave some cause for optimism. Sadly, Ohio State had his full attention early, to the point that it was his only official visit.
• S Vonn Bell, Louisiana, 2013: Despite his five-star status I don’t remember anything about us recruiting him, and he never visited. I seriously doubt that the thought of going to Notre Dame ever crossed his mind.
• OC Harry Miller, Georgia, 2019: Made it to Notre Dame for the spring junior day and, per a deeply-placed 18S source, made one other stealth spring visit, but from what we understand already was immovably sure that he was going to Ohio State at that point. Kinda weird. Anyway, we had a brief chance to catch his attention early but he fell in love with the Buckeyes.
• LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio, 2015: The quintessential Notre Dame kid, and his three visits gave the Irish faithful a lot of hope. Notre Dame made it into his final two but ultimately chose the college that wasn’t like his high school, as some kids do. He was passed by Browning at Mike.
• QB Braxton Miller, Ohio, 2011: Committed to Ohio State before Brian Kelly’s first game at Notre Dame. Never considered the Irish, unsurprisingly.
• WR Jalin Marshall, Ohio, 2013: Took an unofficial visit to Notre Dame in his junior year to catch the USC game. Yes, his first impression was the Crazy Train debacle. Shockingly, it was also his last impression.

Aside from its absurd length, two things stand out from this list. First, the prospects come from all over the country, so it’s not like Ohio State has just been cleaning up in the Midwest. Second, the vast majority of these wins comes from the last four recruiting cycles – not coincidentally, beginning when Meyer really hit his stride in Columbus. If I was to highlight a slightly deeper insight, it would be that the geographical diversity is similarly weighted; the 2011-15 wins are much more Midwest-heavy than the 2016-20 wins. Hmm.

And now some Neosporin, the kind you have to roll up the tube and really squeeeeze to get out, in the form of the most notable Notre Dame wins:

• Five-star LB Jaylon Smith, 2013
• Five-star DE Aaron Lynch, 2011
• Five-star LB Ishaq Williams, 2011
• Five-star WR Jordan Johnson, 2020
• Five-star RB Chris Tyree, 2020
• Five-star OT Tommy Kraemer, 2016
• Top 100 QB Brandon Wimbush, 2015
• Top 100 RB Greg Bryant, 2013
• Top 100 TE Ben Koyack, 2011
• Top 100 WR Davonte Neal, 2012
• Top 100 LB Nyles Morgan, 2014
• Top 100 S Kyle Hamilton, 2019
• Top 100 OT Quenton Nelson, 2014
• Top 100 OT Tosh Baker, 2020
• Top 100 DB Houston Griffith, 2018
• Top 100 TE Michael Mayer, 2020
• Top 100 OT Liam Eichenberg, 2016
• Top 100 WR Kevin Austin, 2018
• Top 100 OG Robert Hainsey, 2017
• Top 100 QB Phil Jurkovec, 2018
• Top 100 TE Cole Kmet, 2017
• Top 100 OC Zeke Correll, 2019
• Top 100 LB Shayne Simon, 2018
• Top 100 RB Dexter Williams, 2015
• Top 100 OT Hunter Bivin, 2013

That’s a really strong list in a vacuum, but when you actually compare it… The cold reality is that we’ve pulled 25 top 100 players with Ohio State offers while Ohio State, in the same time frame, has pulled 20 five-stars with Notre Dame offers. Whatever points might be available about raw numbers and Composite score differentials and whatever, we’re not talking about two of the same animal here. Ohio State is always going to be able to pull more raw talent than Notre Dame; they can recruit from a bigger pool and offer a less rigorous path for the kids who want that. Where the Irish need to do better is in locking up the elite kids who would want to take the more rigorous path. Success on the field, like the 22-4 record over the last two years, will help that. So will turning out NFL prospects, which maybe will start to improve this year. So will the retention of assistants who are both ace coaches and ace recruiters.

Recent History

You know I love you folks, but I honestly don’t have much stomach left for this review so I’m not going to go as deep in this section as I did for Stanford, Michigan, and Oklahoma.

In 2018, Gill and Smith weren’t fits; Gill reportedly wasn’t admissible and Smith was looking for a very different atmosphere than what Notre Dame could provide (think Soso Jamabo 2.0). Notre Dame would’ve taken anyone else on that list, particularly Gant (think Justin Hilliard 2.0). Ohio State probably had true interest in all the Irish recruits except Brown, but this was a bloodbath and there’s no way around it.

2019 was a bit better but, again, featured a few kids, most notably Vimahi and Chambers, who would’ve been great fits at Notre Dame. The Irish need to get more traction with kids like them. Swapping out Autry Denson for Lance Taylor is a great start to that.

Ohio State still has an advantage in the 2020 cycle, but it’s much closer to an even fight. That’s particularly notable given that Notre Dame is taking smaller class than usual this year; in fact, even now, Ohio State has 21 commits to Notre Dame’s 17. Still, there are a few kids who were excellent fits for the Irish and instead will head to Columbus, at least as it looks today: Gee Scott, Clark Phillips, and Lathan Ransom all would excel on and off the field at Notre Dame. The Irish coaches simply have to find a way to start winning those battles.