If you’ve been under a rock or just completely rely on 18 Stripes for your basketball coverage, we’ve got some bad news for you. After treading water and even looking occasionally strong through for a few games without senior captains Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell, things took a nose dive over the last week.
North Carolina
First, Georgia Tech took advantage of a flu-ridden Rex Pflueger to hand the Irish their first conference loss. Following the trip to Atlanta, the Irish returned home for what looked to be a winnable but difficult game against the North Carolina Tarheels. Despite most counting the shorthanded Irish out, someone forgot to tell the guys on the floor. Again playing without Farrell, the Irish hung in and traded blows UNC, before being on the short end of numerous foul calls that left players, announcers, coaches and fans incredulous. Even withstanding the officiating, the Notre Dame’s TJ Gibbs had two tries to win in the waning seconds, but neither would go down and the Irish dropped their second straight. The writers here at 18 Stripes, being fans as well, tried to pump out a recap, but since it was mostly just a string of expletives at the referees it didn’t quite meet the readability we strive for. We apologize for not having a recap for you to read and ask that you send all complaints over not having one to @theACC.
Louisville
Following that heart-breaker, the Irish welcomed (using that term loosely) the Rick Pitino-less Louisville Cardinals on Tuesday night and also welcomed back Matt Farrell to the starting lineup. He showed up early in the first half, dropping long shots and yelling “I’m back!” to Rece Davis and rest of press row.
The fun would be short lived however, because star freshman DJ Harvey crumpled to the ground clutching his knee after coming down with a rebound with about five minutes left in the first half. After the trainers helped carry him to the locker room, the Irish proceeded to blow the 10 point lead they had built. Questions about the number of minutes Farrell could provide in his first game back turned out to be warranted, as he wore down throughout the game, but he couldn’t come off the floor because Rex Pflueger fouled out in just 26 minutes of action.
Make it a double.
— Pat Forde (@YahooForde) January 17, 2018
Still, the Irish fought on. In a tie game, Farrell had an opportunity to win it at the end of regulation but missed. In the first overtime, Farrell again had an opportunity to win it and air-balled. At the end of the 2nd overtime, down two, Gibbs came up short on an ill-advised drive and Louisville escaped. Now the Irish are left to pick up the pieces of a season quickly coming apart at the seams.
Injury Situation
Matt Farrell is back and looks no worse for the wear, but after both he and Gibbs went 48 minutes on Tuesday, the break until Saturday, followed by a full week long break is a good omen. On top of that, no news is good news for head bench cheerleader Bonzie Colson. The ESPN crew seemed optimistic that Bonzie would be back in uniform before the end of the year.
Just wanted to let everybody know that I’m fine and that it’s only a bone bruise in my left knee, I’ll be out 4 weeks. Thank you for the concerns, texts and prayers🙏🏾❤️ Go Irish!🍀
— DJ Harvey (@TheRealDJHarvey) January 17, 2018
And all things considered, the injury news on Wednesday was about as good as could be hoped. Instead of losing DJ Harvey for the season, as was feared, the result was a bone bruise which will keep him out for ~4 weeks. Notionally, 4 weeks puts him back in time for the road trip to Boston College on Feb 17th.
Losing Harvey for 7 games will definitely hurt. We’ll dive into which games he’s likely to miss and what that means for our chances below, but the Irish offense looked stagnant and unimaginative without Harvey, especially once Pflueger left the floor for good.
In the 4 games since Farrell went down, Harvey averaged 7 rebounds in 30 minutes and was one of the few players on the floor who could handle the ball in most situations. Gaining Farrell and losing Harvey would seem to be a net positive in terms of ball handling, but both Farrell and Gibbs play the same role. Harvey, Pflueger and potentially Nik Djogo are the only wings who have shown an ability to put the ball on the deck, and that may loom large over the next month.
How Good is Notre Dame, Really?
Through the first six games of the ACC schedule, the Irish are 3-3. With 12 games remaining, let’s take a look at what’s realistically on tap for Notre Dame over the next 12 games in 6.5 weeks in the ACC grind.
When Bonzie and Farrell went down, the Irish had already slipped to 28th in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ranking system after a lackluster December and poor showing at home versus Georgia Tech. Without the senior captains, the Irish got two inspired efforts in a row, beating NC State by 30 and stealing a win at Syracuse, which inflated the Irish ranking to 14th. Since then, the Irish have fallen hard, back to 25th in the country as a composite on the season.
But how good are the Irish for the rest of the regular season? Much of that #25 rating was earned with players who won’t be available for chunks of the rest of the season and the energy bounce that comes with bench players getting their first shot at more minutes, and is not sustainable.
One (very speculative) way to try to determine the Irish’s spot in the ACC pecking order is to look at Las Vegas game lines. Headed into our home game with Louisville, the Irish were 3 point favorites. Accounting for home floor and with both Farrell and Harvey in the lineup, that means that the books believed that Notre Dame and Louisville were about equal. As a result, it would make sense to pretend that with DJ Harvey, Notre Dame was closer to #36 (the Cardinal’s rank headed into Tuesday night) than #25. Now that DJ Harvey is out for 4 weeks, we can probably downgrade the Irish a little further for those games. For sake of discussion, let’s assume the Irish are in the 40-45 range for that stretch, about halfway between the group of Florida St (27)/Miami (30)/Louisville (30) and Virginia Tech (48)/Syracuse (47).
Goal of a Tournament Bid
For most of the last 18 years, the goal has been to make the tournament. Mike Brey and his team’s efforts over the last 3 have helped to raise that bar, but it seems like a reasonable threshold to use. Brey, his players and reporters close to the team seem to think 9-9 is probably good enough to make the tournament and I’m mostly inclined to agree. So lets map out what it would take to get there.
Adjusting the KP Winning % for our lowered rank due to injury, and then sorting into three buckets provides a pretty clear view.
There are four games, including this Saturday’s that Notre Dame probably doesn’t have any business winning, and two games that they just can’t drop. The other six fall into the “winnable” category, where the Irish are likely to be slight favorites but could easily drop any of them. At 3-3 already, the Irish need six wins. Two of those 6 come from the easy category, which means Brey’s squad needs to go 4-2 vs. the “winnable” category or 3-3 plus steal a win on the road against one of the best ACC squads.
One important thing of note: 3 of the 4 “steal” games are going to be without DJ Harvey. If you were hoping the freshman was going to be able to cut his teeth against good teams on the road this year, he’s likely to miss most of his big opportunities. On the flip side, if we’re projecting Harvey to be back for the last 5 games of the year, 3 of those 5 are in that middle bucket where the Irish’s season will be defined. As a result, it’s conceivable for the Irish to go 2-5 over the next 7 games and still be in position to run off wins against average competition with Harvey back to make the tournament. It’s certainly not an ideal scenario, but it’s feasible. Even if the Irish struggle mightily without Harvey for the next month, the ship won’t have sunk quite yet.
What To Watch For
To wrap up, I thought I’d provide a couple of ideas of things I’m looking for over the remaining month and a half of the conference season. Given the injuries, we’re going to see a lot of young players making young player mistakes and hopefully growing from them. We’re also likely to see strange lineups, big runs and big droughts, but here’s a few things to watch both for this season and for future ones…
- Can TJ Gibbs evolve his basketball IQ and crispness of his passes as he matures? At the moment, he plays a little out of control and his passes often seem just a hair off precise when trying to hit shooters. If he’s going to be the primary ball handler next season, it would be great to see him continue to evolve while getting major minutes this year.
- Will either of John Mooney or Elijah Burns step up and earn Mike Brey’s trust? Right now Mooney has the edge, getting significantly more minutes than Burns, but that may change as Brey needs additional rebounders with Harvey out. Mooney often feels like a Matt Ryan Redux, with dumb errors and long distances splashes woven together. His confidence appeared to have been shaken from some rough early outings, but a few key buckets against Louisville might help him get going, which would be a huge boon to the Irish chances.
- How much will Djogo evolve? Throughout the offseason, the whispers of Nik Djogo, super athlete made us giddy with excitement. Once he got significant minutes in games against real teams, we got to see behind the curtain and the results should have been expected. He clearly is athletic, quick and bouncy, just like the reports said, but he was also immediately over-matched by the big boy game on the ACC stage. I compared him to an 8th grader getting called up to play with the HS and still thinking all of the moves that made him a star on the lower level would work here. Not so fast. He’s already shown signs of settling into his role and being able to pick his spots which bodes well long term. He’s started hitting shots, including a major clutch 3 in overtime against Louisville (even if it went for naught).
- My final one is one that I’m not looking to see happen, but already know exists. The fight in this team through 4 games without either of their senior captains was impressive, as was their fight into double OT while short handed and hit with another major injury on Tuesday night. A Mike Brey team rolling on defense and rebounding? I’m looking forward to watching this team continue to evolve and do whatever is necessary to stay in games and hopefully pull some out.
The good news is that regardless of what happens this year, we know we’re in good hands with Mike Brey. Last year if you had told me that we’d be relying on Martinas Geben racking double doubles on 20+ points, I’d have laughed. But he’s just another in a long line of revelations on this team which provides a pretty incredible level of comfort with where things are headed.
That’s the four main things I’m looking to monitor the rest of the way. What other key aspects of this team are you watching? Let us know in the comments below! Go Irish, Beat Tigers.
Mooney often feels like a Matt Ryan Redux, with dumb errors and long distances splashes woven together.
Trying to recall all these dumb errors, in 6 ACC games covering 110 minutes he has 5 turnovers (1,1,0,1,1,1).
For the entire season, on a per minutes basis he is 3rd in rebounding behind Bonzie and Geben. He is 4th in FG % at .484 and 3rd in trey % at .379.
I think the truth lies somewhere in between. I’m a Mooney fan, so I’m not as quick on the negative with him as some other fans can be. You’re right, his numbers are good, but you have to admit, the eye test with him isn’t always pretty. He’s looked hurried/panicked with the ball, and he’s had instances that might not have been scored as a turnover, but where he’s put us in tough spots.
I remember when we thought Geben couldn’t play at the speed of ACC basketball and wasn’t going to be a player, but look at what Brey got out of him once he got confident and calm with the ball. With Mooney, you don’t get Marty’s size, but you get a .379 shooter from distance.
Bonzie’s injury sucks on every level, but if it accelerates Mooney going from where his is now to a legitimate ACC guy, it will be a nice dividend for the next few years. If Mooney follows Geben’s trajectory from last year to now, he’ll be very solid in the future at a key position. He’ll also give Laz a little time to settle in.
Billy D saw something in Mooney, and Brey has been able to get a lot out of Geben. I might be overly optimistic in combining those two things, but they definitely keep me from writing him off.
You read my mind on Mooney. What I like is he blocks out and is aggressive. He does not jump the highest, but he competes much like Cooley did. He can make the trey, but is not afraid to battle inside like Zeller. He is so much farther ahead of where Geben was. I expect Mooney and Durham to start next season and depending on match ups they will alternate between the high and low post. Still trying to figure out why Burns did not get more run versus Ville. My guess, Brey originally wanted to rotate the 4 bigs, but Geben was playing so good he could not take him out & he opted with the 5 year senior instead. Torres played well, but he is no threat to score and I was worried his brick laying at the FT line would cost ND again.
On a side note, Brey is supposed to be an offensive genius- but I still cannot figure out how he could not tweak the offense to take advantage of that pip squeak guard for Ville. He needed to use Djogo as a screener to get him some looks or he needed to flash Geben in the high post to clear space for Djogo on the baseline. Djogo needed some help, where as if McMahon was on Harvey, he would have eaten him up on his own.
Shouldn’t some of the credit for Geben’s development go to his playing on his country’s team (what was it for exactly?) where he really came on? Mooney won’t have the same advantage.
What do you deem cause vs. effect? In my mind. The work Brey’s been doing with him and the time with Humph on the staff is much more than what his national team coaches had with him. From a pure time perspective, I’d guess Brey has 100x more time working with Geben than the Lithuanian youth staff.
I think China was good for his confidence, and Brey wants Geben to own his progress. However, Geben is another case of Brey seeing something in a guy that other programs missed and bringing it out in him over time.
Yea I don’t necessarily think it was the Lithuanian staff and have no doubt Brey is coaching him well and Mooney will have the same coaching. What I think opened things up for him is just the opportunity to play a bigger role where a team is counting on you. And Mooney just won’t have that same opportunity.
I’m certainly open to the idea that I’m too hard on Mooney, but I don’t think counting stats tell the story with him. Your selective stat picking also creates a much rosier picture of him as well. If we want to use conference games (I think that’s apt), he’s shot 3/14 from 3, for 21.4% and including the bad teams we played to start the year is at 35.7% (not 37.9%) and much closer to the guys behind him (Pflueger/Harvey, who have each taken more).
My feeling on Mooney is that he often adds nothing to the flow of the offense, save for occasionally getting open in the corner and occasionally makes the shot. His only two roles in our offense are getting his defender lost and heading to a corner or catching the ball on a wing, looking panicked and then finding a safe pass out to one of our real ball handlers at the top of the arc. He’s definitely good defensive rebounder, but a very bad offensive one for his size.
The tempo-free numbers back up my view — his low turnover numbers in raw numbers hide the fact that he barely touches the ball. He currently finishes 16.1% of our possessions, good for 6th on the team, but still ahead of Rex Pflueger, who dribbles and is part of the passing flow of the offense significantly more often but shoots less. Despite that low possession number, he still has a turnover% rate of 16.3% in conference, which is astronomically high for a catch-and-shoot guy. And it’s not like he earns that 16.3% rate by trying slick passes to free up teammates. His assist rate in conference games is 4.0% (!!), the lowest on the team by a large margin.
I definitely haven’t given him enough credit for his rebounding on the defensive side of the ball. When he’s in the game, he’s done a good job at that and it’s something that has changed the complexion of the team since Bonzie went out. But from an offensive perspective, he looks lost a large chunk of the time. Hopefully Farrell back will help him find his stroke and earn him some more open looks, because he can be useful from downtown, but he needs someone to do the work for him.
Dan,
Based on the quality of opposition, ND’s toughest OOC games this season were MSU, Wichita State, LSU, Indiana, Ball State, and DePaul. I may not have them in the correct order, but those were the best 6 OOC teams they faced. There is zero dispute on that.
In those games Mooney shot 6 for 10 on treys.
His trey OOC stats were not fattened up like they were for Matt Ryan last season. Ryan was 15 for 26 versus Chicago State, NC A&T, and Colgate. The first two were absolutely horrific teams. Ryan was 21 for 57 in all other games last season. Ryan was 6 for 22 in 18 regular season ACC games last season. He did go 5 for 10 in 16-17 post season games.
Mooney generally plays with another big and he is the only of the 4 bigs that can confidently take a trey. Because of that, he often flashes to a the corner (but he has made some treys this season from the right of the key circle). I believe he could do a solid job as a low post big, but the only way that would happen is in a 4 around 1 line up. That is not likely to happen with the way Geben is playing and ND having only 4 perimeter options and 3 other bigs.
I’d actually like see ND try a line up (when Harvey returns) with Mooney as the only big, because then they could go with more of a 5 out look (which they actually did a couple times when Burgett was at ND). A Farrell, TJ, Rex, Nik, and Mooney line up might be worth a try versus FSU and their revolving door of 7 foot shot blockers with last names you can’t spell.
That’s a fair point, although it brings us to the with/without other playmakers on the floor discussion. I’m not disputing the fact that Mooney can hit shots when he’s provided opportunities, just that it requires someone else to create them for him, and those have been fewer and further between since the injuries started.
I don’t think Mooney is irredeemable and as you/Joe have said, think he can come around, but it’s a matter of his mind catching up to the speed of ACC play. As I said in the initial piece, getting him going would be a huge help to the team down the stretch.
Gonna be an interesting set of story lines the rest of the way. We’re 3-3 in conference play but you could pretty easily make the case that we’re a stronger immune system from Rex, any one of 1 of 5 awful calls being less awful and one of two end game possessions from Farrell going down from being 6-0 in the ACC play. I certainly don’t feel as optimistic as the previous sentence sounds, but I couldn’t fault someone from taking that view and buying in whole-hog.
On the comparison front, for what it’s worth, Matt Ryan had a lower turnover rate last year (13%) and was used in a similar number of possessions (18%) when on the floor.(albeit significantly less minutes than Mooney is getting).
Maybe the more useful comparison is to Nik Djogo, who has a slightly higher turnover rate with similar usage, but double the assist rate. When I watch Djogo, I see the potential of a slasher who could be an important cog in the ND offensive machine once his body catches up with his mind, where as with Mooney I see a useful defensive piece (mainly for rebounding, not so much for trying to stay in front of his guy) and a guy who can camp at the 3 point line and fire if left alone, but is wholly at the mercy of his teammates creating for him.
As Joe has said, we’ve had other bigs who took time to come around, so there’s certainly a precedent for holding out hope. Brey & staff have proven adept at bringing guys along and turning them into useful players (see: Geben, Martinas), so I’ll certainly hold out hope that the game begins to slow down for him as he’s forced into action over the next month and a half.
He’s finished a lob or two, and he’s had a nice tip dunk on a follow. I honestly think he’s just not attuned to the speed of an ACC game yet. Every minute he plays this year will help his offseason and prep for next year.
I kept texting my friend over and over during the game that this team is “fun but painful”. They’re totally worth the watch, it’s fun seeing the development, and it’s particularly exciting knowing that the bulk of this team will be back next year with 5 new top-100 guys coming in… but, dang, they’re just not there yet.
The next few weeks will be the youngest, and least experienced, team that Brey has put on the floor in years. Getting Matt back helped that experience level, but with his rust, we looked pretty rough around the edges. The 24% TO rate against Louisville bears that out. We’ve been so used to Brey’s teams not making dumb/young mistakes, but we’re going to get some of that for a few weeks. It is a different watching experience.
It is different, but it definitely isn’t bad. It is so cool to see a little sloppier and less skilled squad get buy on pure moxie and hustle. The defense hasn’t been great (1.08ppp over the last 2 games), but they’re digging out stops and rebounds like no Brey team we’ve seen before. These guys are doing everything they can and battling. Many of them have been asked to step in ahead of schedule. It makes the highs so much more entertaining, and the lows so much more tolerable.
If Brey can get this team to 7-9 heading into the Pitt game, there’s always the chance that Bonzie makes his return then. If he can even put in 7-10 minutes off the bench against Pitt, and we win that one (we should be able to handle them even without Bonzie), Brey is going to have a hell of a decision heading into the UVA game. Do you start your all-american and hope he somehow is able to give you 20-25 strong minutes on the road against one of the best teams in the country?
If Brey’s gotten us to that point with this roster, I would hope he instead uses Bonzie off the bench. Bring him in when the offense gets into one of its ruts. I absolutely do not think this team is better off without Bonzie (which I’ve seen some people say); but I do think that if the roster has started to gel with him on the bench, Brey might be better off using Bonzie as a bench guy at the end of the regular season and during tournament time. Time and again, we’ve seen this team get into ruts, with nobody on the bench able to come in and inject some scoring. Bonzie could be that guy, able to give you everything he’s got for 15-20 minutes per night as his conditioning comes back.
You have permission to slap anyone who thinks ND is better with out Bonzie MF’ing Colson.
If healthy Bonzie will start. We will not see a repeat of Gody coming off the bench.
If they go 7-9, they will need to win at least 2 games in the ACCT, maybe 3.
They need to get to 20 and 13/14. Six more wins in the regular season and one in the ACCT.
Even without Bonzie they can win 6 more games. With better defense and rebounding they would seem less likely in getting blown out on the road. UNC is beatable there with Farrell back. Duke seems impossible, but they do a terrible job of defending. Clemson has no one on their team that is a big time talent (though neither is Juwan Morgan or Taylpr Persons).
Va Tech- this will not be an easy game, but no one on that team scares you. Buzz really wants to beat ND.
NC State- will having Johnson back make a difference & will Yurtseven show up.
BC twice- can’t allow 2 of their 3 top guys to go off behind the line.
Miami- smash mouth game, can’t allow their guards to abuse Farrell
FSU- normally they go small with them, but not sure they can with just 4 perimeter guys. Not having Harvey really hurts in this game.
Wake- just has guards and they are not world beaters. Crawford seems to have regressed this season without Collins.
Pitt- would be the worst home court loss since CMU
at Virginia is the the toughest game on the schedule. Will Bonzie be back. ND figured out how to beat them, but Virginia has the better perimeter unit and their pack line seems to kill any offensive rebounding (which ND has been living off).
Good rundown, and I agree on FSU — not having Harvey for that one will really hurt.
And I’m with you on 8-10 in conference. If we land there, especially with no marquee wins since Wichita St (say we beat Wake, NC State, BC 2x and Pitt), we almost certainly will need to find a way to get 2 and maybe more likely 3-4 wins in the ACC tournament. We’d likely be the 10 or 11 seed, and play one of those 4 bottom teams in a game that didn’t matter, followed by a game against the 6/7 (VT, Miami, FSU, Lou?) and then a shot at one of the top teams in the quarters. That win vs Duke/UNC/Virginia might be a make or break game for the Irish should we follow that path to get there.
Agree, if it’s not 9-9, it’s going to be a tall task in the ACC Tournament. Even at 9-9, can’t lost the first ACC Tourney game.
Thanks for the analysis. The UNC loss was heartbreaking.
If Brey gets this team into the field of 68, he should (but won’t) be a unanimous choice for COY. I will still be satisfied with a deep run in the NIT, especially after the DJ injury.
On the bright side, the extended PT for others should make us a better team next year.
The Farrell and Colson injuries have me so conflicted. They are our 2 best scorers and our offense has looked mostly inept without them. But that 2nd half of the NC State game did have me thinking, is it better to be solid defensively and keep the ball moving on offense vs. having 2 skilled hero-ball players who the other guys defer to and don’t play good defense?
Given the way they offense has looked in the last 3 games, we are better with a healthy Colson and Farrell, but it might be a higher ceiling/lower floor situation. With our full squad, we can beat LSU by 40 but lose to Ball State. I’m thinking our grind squad of Gibbs, Rex, Harvey, Mooney and Geben doesn’t lose either the IU or Ball State games, but doesn’t beat Wichita State.
That was the beauty of the likes of Connaughton, Grant and Vasturia, they were skilled but kept the ball moving beautifully and played at worst average defense. (Unless we’re talking about the last 2 minutes of a close game, where Grant would absolutely hero ball it).
The one thing I noticed in the NC State home was how the ball moved much better without colson (and farrell in the second half). There was a lot more cutting and a lot less watching. However, the loss of colson and farrell reared it’s ugly head against Syracuse, GT and UNC when the team went through at least a 5 minute scoring drought in each game. I guess it makes sense that a team is going to struggle when you take away the two best players.
However, I was discouraged that harvey will be out for a significant time – I truly think ND plays better as a 4 around 1 offense, and was excited to see harvey excel in the 4 role (he is a truly tremendous rebounder). Now, I believe we will play 2 bigs, very similar to the offense with bonzie and geben on the floor. Also, quick note about Mooney and Harvey – since they are young they still hold the ball a little too long on the first catch. This is something I still struggle with in pickup, and can ruin an offensive possession. Holding the ball too long doesn’t create the beauty that we often saw in the 2014-15 season, especially with the 3-4 extra passes then corner three for Onions agains UNC in ACC Championship.
I truly hope that we see DJ harvey play the 4 in his future here – he is a great shooter and can board as well as anyone. I see very much a pat connaugton style to his game, and am very excited. Hopefully he can take the time to fully heal so he has no nagging issues with the bone bruise.
Another side note on Djogo. Sure, he makes silly turnovers and looks the part of a young player playing over his head in the ACC. However, he does have a knack for driving into the lane, much of what I saw in Farrell during the 2015-16 season. Yes, Djogo is currently getting stuffed into oblivion on each of his drives, put if he can improve his vision and finishing ability, I can see him being a much taller Matt Farrell (obviously much much less of a shooter, Farrel can stroke) in the future.
Anything is possible boys!
NC State does not really compete on defense. They are really only a decent team if Yurtseven shows up on offense.
I agree with an earlier post, ND without Bonzie or Farrell loses to Ball State. They probably win 65-59. They just loafed and coasted in that game and it was clear everyone not name Bonzie or Farrell was relying on those 2 to secure the game. Against IU, not so sure. I actually think without Bonzie they win the game,but not without both.
Bonzie is a unique and terrific college player and Farrell is a great story of someone who developed but they were by far the 2 weakest on ball defenders in the starting line up. Bonzie has some blocks, but those were help side coming off his man and Farrell has some clutch steals- but he gets abused too much (and sometimes loafs).
As far as Harvey at the 4, it’s probably closer to what he played in HS. IMO he likely splits time at the 3 and 4 next season, because the 4 bigs ND will have active will not play 80 minutes (Durham 24 coming off injuries and rust, Mooney/Lasz 30, and Burns hard to say, maybe 10 unless he really improves).
What has hurt ND with Bonzie out is ND is a shooter short. Rex cannot be counted on. Gibbs has been streaky with added ball handling pressure with Farrell out. Harvey and Djogo can make treys but at a 1/3 clip.
That brings up the old Matt Ryan laments. Yes Matt Ryan would help a ton with Bonzie and Farrell or Harvey out, because he can shoot & score. The problem with him was how would he fit in a line up with Bonzie and Farrell. Some would say ND is still a shooter short in that line up, but defense was more the problem with that line up as you cannot hide Ryan with Bonzie and Farrell and 2 of Rex/Gibbs/Geben on the court. Ryan was a train wreck guarding 3’s and he was not tough enough guarding 4’s. It would have to be zone.
Going back to Bonzie, I have no doubt he can become a solid energy guy back up in the NBA (he will not be Draymond Green redux- not close to the same player, he would be more like a shorter Paul Millsap), but my concerns with Bonzie are who he can guard on the perimeter or inside (and NBA teams rarely play zone). Farrell would be a defensive liability as a back up (or 3rd string) PG but not as much as Bonzie.