It’s time to go bowling. This Saturday afternoon the Irish will kickoff against Iowa State for the first meeting between the schools, while the Cotton Bowl between Penn State and Memphis will go head-to-head over on ESPN in the same time slot. Later in the day we will see the two playoff games at 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM eastern time for an entertaining weekend of matchups.
Somehow, it feels like the Irish and Cyclones should’ve crossed paths at least once over the past 100+ years but it was not meant to be. Iowa State has been a noted middling program–reaching their first bowl game in 1971 and not winning their first until 2000–and they’ve been a member of the Missouri Valley/Big 6/Big 7/Big 8/Big 12 conferences since 1908 and have never outright won their league.
Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Iowa State
Camping World Bowl
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
Date: Saturday, December 28, 2019
Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: ABC
In modern times, the Cyclones were led by second-year head coach Dan McCarney in 1996 when they transitioned to the formation of the Big 12 conference ultimately building up to a 9-3 season in 2000 (the bowl win mentioned above) in which Iowa State finished ranked for just the second time in school history. The next year they would welcome JUCO transfer quarterback Seneca Wallace to follow up NFL quarterback Sage Rosenfels on campus and Iowa State remained a pretty tough but limited program until the middle of the aughts when McCarney resigned.
The rut the program fell back into would last over a decade as the Cyclones lost 91 games in 11 years leading up to current head coach Matt Campbell’s second season. However, since the start of 2017 Campbell is averaging 3 fewer losses per year than the decade prior and with a win this weekend may have Iowa State finished ranked in the AP Poll* for just the second time since 1977.
*The Cyclones headed into the bowl season 31st in the AP Poll and 2 teams (Boise State & SMU) have already lost rather ugly in the post-season.
Iowa State’s Offense
Iowa State’s offense begins and ends with true sophomore Brock Purdy who took over at quarterback in the 5th game of last year and carries a 14-7 record into the weekend. All but one of those losses (their last game against Kansas State in November) has come at the hands of a ranked opponent. They rely on his arm quite a bit as he’s thrown at least 30 passes in 9 out of their 10 games against Power 5 opponents this year, including topping 40 attempts on four occasions.
As such, Purdy has averaged 25 more yards per game through the air than any other Big 12 quarterback. His 66.3% completion percentage and 153.24 passer rating were second only to Jalen Hurts in the league, as well. He was the 50th rated quarterback in his recruiting class and is arguably already the 3rd best at the college level behind heavyweights Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
Iowa State relies mostly on true freshman running back Breece Hall, a low 4-star and 2nd best prospect out of Kansas for 2019. He started slowly–missing the Baylor game and being a non-factor against Iowa and TCU–but has averaged 108.2 yards and 21.5 carries per game over the Cyclones last 7 contests. Over the course of a full season that is just a tick under 1,300 yard pace. Hall isn’t super fast but he’s slippery with some good power and vision.
In addition to Hall (19 receptions), Iowa State relies on 4 main receivers. The main target is 5’10” 180 pound senior Deshaunte Jones who is wrapping up an impressive time in Ames that includes 72 catches this year and 2,007 yards for his career. He’s averaging just over 11 yards per reception both this year and for his career and isn’t exactly a big play guy. The same can’t be said for redshirt sophomore Tarique Milton (also 5’10” 183 lbs) who has caught only 33 passes this year but for 689 yards, good for 20.8 per reception–just edging out Oklahoma’s All-American CeeDee Lamb for the best mark in the Big 12.
Iowa State adds size in the form of Arkansas transfer and 5th-year senior La’Michael Pettway (6’2″ 223 lbs) who is second on the team with 51 receptions and second in touchdowns (6), too. More size is added with redshirt sophomore tight end Charlie Kolar (6’6″ 252 lbs) who has caught 48 passes for 675 yards and a team-leading 7 touchdowns. That is tied for the 6th most catches and yards among tight ends in the country and Kolar is tied for 4th in touchdowns nationally at his position.
Most believe this Cyclones offensive line is serviceable. They’ve only allowed 14 sacks (tied for 7th nationally, one fewer than Notre Dame) but like the Irish do benefit from a mobile quarterback and a quick-passing game.
Iowa State’s Defense
When Matt Campbell arrived in Ames from Toledo in 2016 he brought with him Jon Heacock as defensive coordinator who ran a pretty basic 4-3 scheme that was quickly chewed up by the Big 12 to the tune of 37.8 points per game in 2016. The next year, Heacock changed things to a super flexible 3-3-5 scheme highlighted by a hybrid safety/linebacker that often lines up in between the free and strong safety and behind the middle linebacker.
Although opponents have since begun to adjust, this switch wreaked havoc in 2017 leading to Iowa State’s two massive wins against Oklahoma and TCU during an incredible defensive turnaround. This “STAR” position challenges offenses because it’s difficult for linemen to account for while run blocking and the ability to drop 3 deep safeties adds an extra layer of confusion in the passing game.
The STAR for 2019 is redshirt junior 2018 JUCO transfer Greg Elsworth who led the Cyclones in tackles last year from the strong safety position and now has 60 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 1 interception, and 10 pass break-ups this year.
Heacock’s 3-3-5 scheme with hybrid STAR defender circled in red.
Iowa State’s magical defensive turnaround has been built around stopping the run, limiting big plays on the ground, and trying to bend but not break through the air.
Although they’ve slipped a little bit from the dominant 2017, the Cyclones are only giving up 3.84 yards per rush and just 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards in 2019. They get thrown on a ton (34.4 attempts/game tied for 101st nationally) but allowed just 6.6 yards per attempt which is tied for 25th nationally.
Prediction
My three questions for the bowl game:
1) Which team will crack in the red zone?
The usual talking point is that you need to be a good running team, specifically a tough running team, in order to be a strong offense that scores touchdowns in the red zone. Neither Notre Dame or Iowa State are known as much of either this year and yet the Irish are 6th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage while the Cyclones are 18th nationally in that category.
Both sides have accurate and mobile quarterbacks which helps things tremendously.
2) Will Ian Book be hyper-efficient in the short passing game?
You wonder if Iowa State’s typical 3-down linemen look will dare the Irish to run the ball and if the Cyclones would actually prefer that. The thing about Heacock’s STAR hybrid is that it does leave the sidelines pretty exposed to quick passes, particularly if they keep 3 linebackers on the field.
Book should be able to find a lot of easy stuff in the short-to-intermediate routes. If he has an accurate day and the Irish actually get some positive YAC from their receivers it could be a promising afternoon. Due to that STAR defender lurking in the middle of the field I wonder if that takes away some of the seam routes to the tight end and if we see an inordinate amount of horizontal passing.
3) Can Notre Dame’s turnover differential be the difference?
For as stiff as the Iowa State defense has been they are not forcing turnovers very well. Both offenses have protected the ball well this year–only 14 turnovers coughed up for Iowa State and only 11 turnovers for Notre Dame.
The Irish have forced exactly twice as many turnovers (26) as the Cyclones which could be a major difference in a close game.
***
This is a tough game to judge as the rest of the country largely isn’t paying attention, many Irish fans have checked out after failing to secure a major bowl bid, and the temptation is there to admit this is a far bigger game for Iowa State and a bowl that makes them more likely to be motivated for an upset.
Notre Dame is hanging their hats on the absence of offensive coordinator Chip Long who apparently was a real-life Grinch within the program. The news that came out of South Bend this month and during bowl prep this week in Florida is that it’s a much happier, more cohesive offense.
I know I’m overly cautious with my previews but this does look like a touch matchup for the Irish. The offenses seem very similar both in approach and quarterback play. I give Notre Dame the edge on defense, although it’s a bit worrisome to have Tommy Rees’ first game calling plays going against the veteran Heacock with a confusing defensive scheme.
If you’re expecting a blowout of a 7-5 team this probably isn’t the game to bet the house, although I do expect Notre Dame’s raw talent to be the edge.
I am glad that at least our 18 Stripes leader has not checked out. Solid review, merci. It’s been kind of disconcerting over here to note the absence of much commentary from our commentariat on this game. It does look tough and indeed a classic not-major bowl where motivation can play a major role. My excitement is on the issue of whether the same character we saw in November will continue Saturday. Aside from the Chip Long gone boost, my fervent hope is that the fighting spirit we could see resurrect after the debacle will keep surging among the entire squad. I really do hope so.
I hope everyone had a joyous Noel!
The podcast over at II was very disheartening. A loss wouldn’t be some death low to the program or anything but would be disappointing and would make for a really long offseason. Combine that with a possible Kmet early departure and this offseason would sorta suck. This Iowa state team is better than its record and a bland enough name that this feels like the perfect combo to upset Notre dame. I guess at least Vegas only had it as 3.5 point game so maybe that captures some sense of urgency. But I really have no idea what to expect
You aren’t kidding. Sheesh, this is dark!
Listened to the same II podcast. The unfocused practices are… REALLY WORRISOME. As that is exactly how the Irish could lose this one. I think much of this is on the captains now. We’ll see what they are made of, round 2.
We’ll see, but I can’t exactly blame them for not getting the team hype against Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl. The motivation doesn’t exactly write itself for that. For a team coming off playoff last year, who would be focused on this random game against a random team after a taste of a break and the nice Florida weather?
It kinda feels like a perfect storm is brewing, since Iowa State is well-coached and seems very excited for this game. This feels like it could be (on a lesser level) a Texas/Georgia type of bowl game from last year that means absolutely nothing but still gives a surprising result.
I hear you, and in many ways would concur. Clearly that’s why so many of our fans have checked out of this one. But, this is a perfect illustration of why I agree so much with BK’s very consistent philosophy of encouraging the famous “traits” especially within the context of measured against self-evaluation — of producing the best possible effort from within one self, vice those external elements which are admittedly omni-present in today’s environment. I get it — these are 19-22 year olds, and very much the children of exactly that context. But BK has put a ton of effort into trying to instill that other mindset.That’s why the continued rebound after Ann Arbor (still for me a profound WTF unexplained episode) has been so encouraging to me. So after what seems to have been a disappointing if understandably not-great practice engagement down in Florida, if they can reach inside and perform like they want to be there, that will be a very good outcome.
35-20 Irish, in a game that once again sends us all into the offseason slightly overestimating just how good we are going to be next season. Book hits all the short routes. Lenzy breaks a monster short play for a huge TD. Keys looks like a legit starting weapon. And Tony Jones Jr has about 8 catches.
I hope you’re right. I tend to be optimistic but I don’t think anyone is going to be all that hyped about this team up until they play Wisconsin next year. Win that game and then it’s a different story, though Clemson is looming. The potential hiring of Rees (or whomever the OC is) will probably be enough to humbug over for the offseason. I do think and hope though that Long out and fresh air of Rees/Taylor will be a boost to the offense for this game.
I think this team could be playoff material next season. I’m hyped already. There’s lots of talent coming back.
….and then I listened to the II podcast….ugh.
Ehh, I mean, I don’t think this bowl game will have much value to next season, one way or the other. If Kmet and Book are back, this could be a playoff-type of team, they should be at least 10-2 again; with probably a decent chance to beat Wisconsin. It won’t be a pleasant lasting after-taste for the off-season if ND bombs out and doesn’t take the game seriously, as the poor preparation/focus is pointing to, though.
It’s being thought now that Kmet is going pro.
Yeah this is worse than the bowl prep. We would be losing our top 3 pass catchers, even with book back that is a lot to replace. I know bill Connelly puts a big emphasis on returning production, specifically pass catchers, and anecdotally Georgia was crushed by the lack of returning production there
Those podcast guys should probably go ahead and sit the next few plays out.
Prister has doubled down on his wrongness on twitter. It’s glorious.
I’m nervous about this game and I share Eric’s trepidation. Iowa State can absolutely win and it wouldn’t even take a bad ND performance for that to happen, ISU is just a good team. I’m most interested to see if Chip Long’s departure has any impact on offensive performance, because coming out and laying an egg would make for a longgg offseason.
24-20 Irish, but don’t quote me on that.
I just look at all the factors and I see ND winning comfortably, though not in a blowout. I dont have a final score in mind, but I feel like there’s enough there to win by 7-9 pts. Our offense struggles against attacking defenses (Mich, VT, SC) and not so much on sit-back-and-wait-for-mistakes which seems to be what ISU does. In the XII, that works with the high risk deep passing attacks but with a QB like Book who WANTS to throw intermediate and short routes and run when there is space, I feel like we will have little resistance. Add onto that the Irish are just much more talented top to bottom and Kelly doesn’t lose these games. ISU is certainly better than 7-5 and they do have respectable losses to the best teams they’ve played, but they’re still losses. They’re not really in our league and I think ND will prove it. It’ll be close most of the game but by the end, ND will wear them down and overpower them for a comfortable win.
I don’t know, I’d say rushing three and dropping 8 is the best way to defend Book. Probably prevents him more from being able to run effectively with an extra guy back a bit. And disguising coverages has always been the best way to fluster him (like the Pitt game last year), Book has had trouble with ID’ing coverages and being able to react with throwing out of it.
Iowa State’s defense gave up 42 to Oklahoma, so I wouldn’t say they’re designed to take away Big XII high octane offenses all that well, but they can shut down run heavy ones like Iowa (giving up only 18 points there). To that end, Iowa State has a good run defense, combined with ND not having any real running back rushing attack these days with the o-line injuries.
I think both offenses will have success on short throws. The main difference IMO is Iowa State defense doesn’t get a lot of turnovers, ND defense is great at turnovers and the offense takes care of the ball. I could see Purdy throwing for 300 yards but throwing a pick or two. Book will (hopefully) not cause as many turnovers.
ND not practicing well and being motivated drowns out any talent advantages. Either they’ll wake up and play well once the hitting starts or there’s a real chance of losing. The II podcast was very pessimistic but it could still go the other way if they care enough to show up.
I’m here to bring my usual dose of pessimism. Reports that the team has been sloppy and unfocused in practice this week have me absolutely terrified. This is the one 7-5 Big 12 team I didn’t want to play, because Brock Purdy is very good, the team overall is better than it’s record, and it’s not like Iowa State moves the perception needle. Playing a 7-5 Texas team that’s just fired both it’s coordinators would be great, since here a mess right now and it would look much better against a big name team. Instead we’ve got a well coached, motivated team, which doesn’t have the talent of ND but can absolutely jump up and bite an unfocused Irish squad in the ass.
No matter what happens, I’m going to read (probably) way too much into the offensive performance this game, and how I feel about Book coming back and Rees being the presumptive OC next season.
Dropping this right before kickoff was the perfect reverse jinx.
Folks, it worked. Never a doubt.
Eric’s question #3 was very prescient
They genuinely came to play. Which I think is the very good news I was hoping for. I personally feel that this is the best positive sign we can hope for in the off season. Not about x’s and o’s, nor about the offense nor the OC, but that this team has seen how focusing on their own best efforts, and a genuine sense of team, can yield very good results. It gives the new leadership a recent strong model to follow.
I also had a lot of fun watching, and hope you all did as well.