As the saying goes you can only perform against the opponents put in front of you. For the Fighting Irish following an embarrassing loss at Michigan they would finish the season with 6 straight wins and a 11-2 record. In that 6-game stretch they would be an impressive +142 in point differential concluding with a dominant win over Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl.
Let’s review the last game of the 2019 season. First, a quick review of my three pre-game questions:
Which team will crack in the red zone?
Well, Iowa State didn’t score a touchdown so that didn’t help them out. They crossed midfield 5 times but only got into the red zone once the entire game while settling for field goals from the Irish 8-yard line, 24-yard line, and 25-yard line. The Irish scored touchdowns on only one of their two red zone opportunities but made up with it for with a couple explosive touchdowns and 4 field goals from Jonathan Doerer. The kicker finished 17 of 20 this year, wow!
Will Book be efficient in the short-passing game?
He was efficient enough. There were six completions of at least 20+ yards and some of those were on short passes. More importantly, Book badly outplayed Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy.
Can turnover differential be the difference?
It was early, at least. The Cyclones two turnovers came on their first two possessions (including the punt return as a possession) in the game and allowed Notre Dame to jump out to a 10-0 with momentum the Irish would never give back.
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 33 | 9 |
| Plays | 65 | 59 |
| Total Yards | 455 | 272 |
| Yards Per Play | 7.00 | 4.61 |
| Conversions | 5/15 | 5/17 |
| Completions | 20 | 18 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 8.82 | 7.09 |
| Rushes | 37 | 27 |
| Rushing Success | 45.7% | 30.4% |
| 10+ Yds Rushing | 4 | 1 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 23.0% | 25.4% |
Offense
QB: B
RB: C
TE: B+
OL: B+
WR: A-
The first (or for now will it be the only?) Tommy Rees play-calling experiment was fine overall. The Irish went to heavy sets early on in an attempt to run the ball and the results were not exactly positive. You have to give credit to quality pass blocking and the steady hand of Book to keep putting points on the board, even if there were plenty of opportunities to really put the hammer down on Iowa State. The offense crossed into Iowa State territory 8 times and 33 points is just an okay effort when you’re kicking a bunch of field goals.
This was largely the same offense we’ve seen for the second half of the season, for good and bad. They protect the ball (Book came SO close to an interception though), make a few big plays, but don’t convert a ton on third down or get both the run game and pass game humming together. A few timely running back runs, a few timely Book runs, and enough of a passing attack to pull away from opponents when backed up by a stifling defense. It’s worked well enough for 11 wins.
The explosiveness for the Irish carried the day, led by Chase Claypool’s dominant 7 receptions for 146 yards, a healthy 20.8 yards per catch rate. Tony Jones also pitched in 110 yards on two carries with another score to pace the offense.
Rushing Success
Jones – 5 of 11 (45.4%)
Book – 5 of 7 (71.4%)
Flemister – 3 of 6 (50%)
Lenzy – 1 of 3 (33%)
Armstrong – 2 of 8 (100%)
It’s hard to quibble with 7.0 yards per play and 33 points against a good defense. We do tend to worry about consistency and taking the next step as an offense but the results are the results. Moving into next year it’ll be so key for the Irish to find something better from their running backs. Armstrong struggled mightily again, Jones (despite a 12.3 average!) was under 50% success, and Flemister was sitting on a goose egg in success until his 3 garbage time runs. It’s hard to be a really good offense when you only get 5 or 6 good carries from your tailbacks each game.
The record breaking run from @TonnJoness ⚡️
(🎥: @CWBowl)#GoIrish ☘️ #BeatCyclones pic.twitter.com/r5QHJ3O4tg
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) December 28, 2019
To put that into perspective, the 5 best carries for the backs in this game went for 142 yards. The other 20 carries went for 31 yards.
We’ll see where the offense grows next year without Chase Claypool–officially ending his senior season with 66 receptions, 1,037 yards and 13 touchdowns. As they mentioned during the broadcast, Book developed an excellent connection with Claypool who finishes 2019 with 522 more receiving yards than the 2nd best player Cole Kmet who is considered a lean to leave for the NFL after a 2nd round grade came back recently.
Defense
DL: B+
LB: A
DB: B
Iowa State needed a handful of plays to go their way in order to keep themselves in this game and it didn’t happen. They lost two possessions with fumbles before some people were settled in their seats. They were stoned on a 4th & 1 in the mid-2nd quarter. They hurried right down the field late in the second half only to suffer a false start from the 3-yard line while settling for a field goal. They opened the 2nd half with a 7-yard completion on 3rd & 8 and decided to punt while the very next snap for the Irish was Jones’ 84-yard touchdown scamper. They attempted another 4th down conversion in the 4th quarter which was snuffed out by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for the sack.
Yes, Iowa State had their chances in the first half and squandered it away. They managed 5.8 yards per play before the break with only 6 points to their name. Then, as is his custom Clark Lea put the clamps down allowing only 2.9 yards per play in the final 2 quarters.
The Cyclones made some plays accounting for 173 yards on 8 snaps. But they struggled in a big way on nearly every other play coming in with just 99 yards on their 51 other plays, good for 1.9 yards per play. I’m guessing Clark Lea can’t be happier.
Before exiting late with an ankle injury, quarterback Brock Purdy had some moments in the passing game but was sacked 3 times and was a complete non-factor on the ground with a long carry of 4 yards.
Stuffs vs. Iowa State
(season stuffs in parentheses)
JOK – 4 (19.5)
White – 3.5 (32.5)
Bilal – 2.5 (25)
Ogundeji – 1.5 (14.5)
Jamir Jones – 1 (13)
Gilman – 0.5 (12)
MTA – 0.5 (14)
Hinish – 0.5 (8)
Ovie – 0.5 (3)
Vaughn – 0.5 (1.5)
The Cyclones pretty much had nothing going with their run game to support their offense. Hall ran for 23 yards on his first carry then put up 32 yards on his other 16 carries. He even had a 9-yard run (the second longest of the day for ISU) so that’s actually 23 yards on his other 15 carries!
The third longest run for Iowa State was 4 yards. Four. Yards. The Irish absolutely dominated this game on defense while especially shutting down the Cyclones running game.
Special shout out to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who finished with a team-leading 4 stuffs, 4 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 9 tackles, a forced fumble, fumble recovery, and a quarterback hurry. We now have all off-season to drool about his next 2 seasons for Notre Dame.
Final Thoughts
This up and close encounter with Matt Campbell didn’t shine much of a positive light on him. Iowa State’s play-calling was pretty poor at times and they generally did not look ready to face the Irish in a bright spotlight. If we can call the Camping World Bowl a bright spotlight.
Following the easy victory a lot of people are shoving it back in the faces of some beat reporters who had sounded alarm bells this week about perceived poor preparation and motivation for Notre Dame. I don’t think that’s fair. Perhaps they were making too much out of very little evidence or scuttlebutt? Perhaps the Irish really didn’t prepare that well and were able to turn on the switch once they put the helmets on? Either way, it’s really not the media’s job to be cheerleading. If they think something is happening that could adversely affect Notre Dame they should report it, not shrug it off because they want or expect Notre Dame to win. Maybe they were right or maybe they were wrong (we’ll never really know) and the outcome of the game really doesn’t mean they should have to defend themselves either way.
If this game is any indicator (as was the second half of the season) Braden Lenzy feels like a lock to be a starter next year. I’m not sure the same can be said for Lawrence Keys. I’d still bet on Keys being the preferred option in the slot even if they decide to move Armstrong in the off-season, but it could be close. I have a hard time seeing Armstrong remaining in the backfield but I also can’t see them just giving up on him completely.
Let’s hope that weird knee bend for Kmet near the end of the game isn’t anything serious. That had the look of something potentially dangerous.
Once upon a time Tommy Tremble really struggled blocking. He looked great in that role in the bowl game.
For as good of a game as Doerer had plackicking this was not a good one for punter Jay Bramblett. A 37.8 yards average with a trio of line drives probably wasn’t in the game plan.
Was this Troy Pride’s best game of the season? He combined some physicality and technique breaking up a pass in a way we haven’t seen much of in 2019.
I can’t speak enough at how well Asmar Bilal and Drew White played this year. There were a couple low moments (especially in Ann Arbor) but they consistently played at a really high level combining for 57.5 stuffs on the season. I knew this was in Bilal because he flashed moments in the past. I couldn’t have been more wrong about White developing into this type of player.
Notre Dame opens the 2020 season on August 29th in Dublin, Ireland against Navy. See you then!
Tommy Tremble had the blocks on the Armstrong TD and the long Jones one. After the first few games this year, I thought he would end up as just a large receiver. Instead, he’s come a really long way with his blocking. That’s really impressive.
JOK was absurd all game long. I know Claypool had to get the game ball for his dominance, but man our LB group played really well. I’m excited to see what they’re capable of next season.
I loved the broadcast breakdown of the blocking on TJJ’s long run. I thought the coverage was pretty good. I was at work though, so I didn’t have the volume up very high.
Ya, that was a great explanation of how the play was designed to blocked. Too bad there isn’t more of that in broadcasts. Similarly with pass plays and how formations and routes are designed to beat coverages.
When Kmet twisted that leg I thought to myself, “that seals his decision whether to go to the NFL or not”.
Don’t forget Kevin Austin, going into spring, he’s probably the most talented WR on the roster. ND needs a couple WRs to take the next steps in development.
There’s a lot on offense that needs to improve by next Sept. I think Kelly needs to go outside to find the next OC. The Oline, RB, WR and even QB coach all have their work cut out for them. Someone with enough experience to put it all together is needed. I don’t think that is Tommy Rees.
Thanks so much for these, Andy, and Eric. Funnest part of my Sunday morning. Both very well-written, as always.
Re: the team’s mental attitude prior to the game and the media, I suspect (based partly on BK’s comment about the week) that the first post-no curfew not great practice was the main source for the media’s reports, and that the team started to recover on the second practice and was all in on the third. Khalid’s remark about how hard the week’s practices were is revealing, and redounds to BK’s credit IMO.
Though I enjoyed the offense in general during this game, Eric’s overall assessment for the year (“they protect the ball, make a few big plays, but don’t convert a ton on third down or get both the run game and pass game humming together”) seems very judicious. Which does lead to consider the importance of the right OC hire. With a long experience with hires, including disastrous and brilliant, I guess we need to trust BK to be capable of making the right call if he puts his mind to it (though if he does go outside, there is the question of availability).
How about an 18 Stripes analysis of the potential hires?
Yes, absolutely — Dublin ! This should be my third game there, and always a good time to be had. Admittedly it’s an easier trip for me from Paris. But seriously, if any of you 18 Stripers plan to be there, I would be delighted to organize an 18 Stripes get-together, if not of epic at least of major proportions.
Best to all for 2020!
I will be in Dublin. A get together would be great.
While I think Tom Rees will eventually be an OC, I agree that we need someone with more experience.
You’re on, DCIrish84. I’ll start a list (I already know the pub).
Throw me on the list too! Gonna be a long eight months, can’t wait 🙂
Hooks, Gotcha down!
Hey Noise, Happy New Year. Dublin sounds good, put me down please👍
Kiwi — you are completely … down! If this keeps up, gonna get ambitious on the arrangements 🙂
Chase Claypool was great and has became such a good wide receiver this year. Gonna miss watching him, hope he shows out at the combine and next level.
Thought book was really solid again today. Seems like a lock to comeback but think that’s essential to developing the young receivers as well.
Thought Jafar was brutal, he has no business playing running back. Really hope Jones come back next year but either way Jafar has to get less touches. He doesn’t read holes or seem to know when to cut things and when to step on the gas. Plus he runs so upright he’s constantly getting dumped by backers and dbs.
Lastly another 20+ point win over a power 5 team. I had been keeping track of those, and that made 4 this year on top of the 9-10 from last two seasons after only like 5 from 2010-2016.
Great stat there. And this was what, SP+ 19 vs 23? Not sure if they over-rated Iowa State or under-rated Notre Dame but this was such an easy game it’s tough to tell if Iowa State was just a middling team or if ND made them look that way. Which, I guess in itself is a credit to ND somewhere to get a big win pretty easily.
I mean it kinda sucks Iowa state was 7-5 and not 9-3 or 8-4. They didn’t look very good today but this team had 3 gut wrenching losses to top 15 teams. Would think advanced stats had them as 8-9 win team. Think our perspective would be a lot different with this win over a top 25 9-3 Iowa state team. Either way really solid win in a really solid season.
We’ve had a bunch of chances for these type seasons over the years and squandered them (looking at 2011 and 2016 and those schedules(
I’m sure advanced stats would, but I think we saw there’s a reason why Iowa State was a 7 win team. They did make a serious run at Oklahoma, but for 40 minutes of that game (early 2nd quarter all through 3 minutes left in game) Iowa State was down 14, 21, 28, 21 points consistently. Impressive for them to make a furious late comeback but they were in a position of extreme weakness all game. Looking back though, it was pretty unlucky/unlikely to lose both the Iowa and Baylor games the way they did (blowing late leads in both). To me, I think I’m more “you are what your record says you are” for ISU. They’re capable of playing well, but ultimately destined to lose to very good teams because they’re not on that level.
That said, my mind always comes back to the bowl setup in general. Even if Iowa State was a 8 win team, this is a game that didn’t need to be played via talent comparison. Similarly, UF/UVA is another game that shouldn’t happen. Sucks the system is the system, but the sport would have been better for ND taking the ACC’s spot in the Orange Bowl and creating two better and more even games (UF/ND, ISU/UVA).
“Maybe they were right or maybe they were wrong (we’ll never really know) and the outcome of the game really doesn’t mean they should have to defend themselves either way.”
Agreed for sure there. I think you also were also dead on saying “Perhaps the Irish really didn’t prepare that well and were able to turn on the switch once they put the helmets on”. Kelly can laugh and be coy about it now that he has the win in his pocket, but all signs pointed to him being unhappy about the team’s overall prep/focus/mentality. Maybe Kelly wasn’t as pessimistic as Prister/Sampson put out there and maybe he did hope/expect them to actually show up, but either way it has to be reported regardless of the outcome.
And I think it speaks to the great leadership on the team. Claypool playing special teams and recovering a fumble. Gilman playing teams and causing the fumble. The defense was obviously well-prepared as always by Lea. Book took care of the ball. Glad 2019 team got to roll to a satisfying win in a somewhat unsatisfying feeling season that might age a bit better than living through it did..
Totally agreed with your last line. I think, objectively, you could argue this season was the third-best ND season since Davie got hired. I think with a combination of subjective factors it wasn’t (I’d argue 2005, 2015, and maybe 2017 were better, or at least more exciting and enjoyable), but 15 years from now what we’ll mostly remember is just 11-2.
Glad we won but found it a bit of a boring game.
Off topic, but I don’t see a need for an expanded playoff. There just aren’t enough teams that are good enough. Better to leave them playing in other bowl games.
The OSU Clemson game was amazing. LSU Okie, not so much, other than Burrow’s jaw dropping performance.
Let’s hope some of our recruits turn out to be great next year.
Happy New Year everyone. Not a bad season for the Irish, hopefully even better next year.
I have learned to appreciate a bit boring for Irish games.
Concur on the playoff at four… I think. I suspect our illustrious EXCOM will have some thoughts on that.
Et oui — come on, super recruits (looking at you, running back(s). Bonne annee to all
I also agree about the playoffs. I remember reading an article I believe by Bill Connelly on this topic. The author went back 20ish years and showed that there is usually only 2-3 teams playing championship level football. Expansion seems pointless when you struggle to see 4 good teams as it is.
Does anyone remember reading that article by chance?
Some if not most years, they seem to have trouble finding a 4th team that can put up a good fight, let alone 5,6,7,& 8. I saw a post somewhere that said, the more playoff rounds the less likely ND wins another Nat. Championship. I don’t think I disagree with that.
I agree with all of that. Just look at last year, it would have taken beating Clemson THEN Bama for Notre Dame to win it all. That’s probably the toughest road possible, but it’s not going to be much easier for the Irish. Seriously tough to win a playoff.
Also, 8-team playoff seems to mean in all scenarios that the P5 conference champions are auto invites. That seems good this year when all the powerhouses win, but we’re only a crazy game from UVA/Wisconsin types being in an 8-game playoff. Which would only make the playoff system even worse if they’re forced to take a P5 champ who isn’t very impressive.
I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but looking at a very narrow focus for only considering what is best for winning national titles, Notre Dame would probably have to consider joining a conference if it’s an 8-team playoff and only 1 or 2 “at large” bids available (which 1 is always going to go to a non-SEC champion, and if there’s a CC game upset that narrows the path incredibly).
Which I guess isn’t terribly different than right now, but big picture joining ACC in that climate might be best path to playoffs, since conceivably ND could be 11-2 or even 10-3 and make an eight team playoff as a champion. Whereas being independent they’re pretty much always going to have to be 12-0. It’s tough to imagine it actually coming to that, but interesting to me to think about how the sport might shift in the future.
Not that it’s a huge surprise, but still nice to get the official word — Ian Book just announced on Instagram that he is returning to Notre Dame for the 2020 season. After his last six games should be great to have him for a fifth year.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B6rbHDen0-C/
Just woke up to that — yes, very comforting. I am in Ian’s camp just because of those game winning drives. Now… let’s see if he can put himself (and BK!) over the hump of winning the big ones.