The Irish had to wait until the very end of the 30-minute CBS bracket reveal to finally find their destination. The Selection Committee decided to reward Florida, Butler, Purdue and West Virginia for their regular season work, placing all four of them ahead of the Irish and shipping the Irish to a #5-seed in the West Region, with the opening weekend’s games being played in Buffalo, NY. Notre Dame also drew the dreaded “first game of the tournament” slot, and kick off festivities at 12:15 EST as the day’s opener.
Continuing with the “doing them no favors” theme, the committee also paired Ivy League Champion, Princeton (23-6, KenPom rated #59) as the #12-seed opposite. While it’s true that there are no good options of mid majors to play on the #12 line, the Irish will have a dangerous, 3-pointer reliant, upset-minded foe for Thursday afternoon. Should the Irish get past Princeton, they will find the winner of #4 West Virginia vs. #13 Bucknell. The full PDF bracket is available here.
A Little Bit Under-seeded
In recent years, the committee has opened themselves up to endless amounts of second guessing and armchair analysis by releasing its full 68 team seed list, ranking the teams from top to bottom. In years past, you could generally recreate it by comparing seeds and locations, but this is obviously much simpler. I commend the committee for doing so, but will immediately join in with the armchair analysis.
The committee ranked both Virginia and Minnesota ahead of us, as #17 and #18, slotting us in at #19. The Virginia comparison is a close one, although one I think we should win. The Minnesota comparison should be no contest.
Using Ken Pomeroy’s rating system, the six games Notre Dame played against top 10 opponents (going 2-4) are replaced by 6 games against teams between 26-100 on Minnesota’s resume. In those games, Minnesota went 2-4. Even by a lesser metric (RPI), the analysis is similar.
But Not As Bad As Some Might Tell You
Ok, now that that bit of a rant is out of the way, I’ll follow it up with a bit of the reverse. I said in my previous post that I thought the Irish deserved a #4-seed and I stand by that analysis. I think we could have been rated over either/both of Florida/Purdue. But ESPN’s Joe Lunardi moved Notre Dame up to a #3-seed this morning and Jay Bilas has been saying that we got screwed out of being a #3-seed. This narrative is just simply not the case.
While we could have been rated over two of the teams on the #4 line, Butler and West Virginia are clearly steps ahead of us.
If you squint the right way, you could probably make the case that Florida St’s 4 bad losses should cost them enough that they’re near the Irish and then claim beating them 2 out of 3 means ND should get the edge. It’s also easy to argue the other side and dismiss that logic by pointing to the fact that they beat Louisville and Duke plus fellow #4/#5 seeds Florida, Minnesota and Virginia. That’s 6 wins over teams seeded #5 or better, whereas ND has 8 wins over teams that made the tournament at all!
I know everyone wants to find some level of outrage with their team landing a bit below where we would have liked (and where last week’s tourney run makes us feel like they belong), but there’s less here than many are making of it.
Team Reactions
With all the discussion of Notre Dame getting under-seeded, you know that idea has also floated into the locker room. Matt Ryan put this tweet out there, which is a little over the top, but gets the point across:
Florida St got a 3 and we got 5… hahahaha the disrepesct! Gotta love it ☘️
— Matt Ryan (@Matt_Ryan04) March 12, 2017
Meanwhile, Rex Pflueger went with a little more subtle nod to the disrespect the Irish are feeling:
Don’t matter what seed we are cause we still going dancing💃🏼 #ExperiencedDancers #StayWokeEchos pic.twitter.com/2cfg9ku4XI
— Rex Pflueger (@rexpflueger) March 12, 2017
Given the hangover we were all expecting from the hotly contested ACC Final on Saturday night, a bit of “chip on the shoulder” mentality might be a good thing for the group.
Enough with Seeds, How About Match-Ups?
The other side of the outrage over the low seed is the fact that when you look at our region, it doesn’t look particularly daunting. We have the last of the #1 seeds awaiting in the Sweet 16 if we make it that far. I think Gonzaga is actually primed for a run this year, but it’s hard to ignore their history of falling short of expectations. West Virginia is likely under-seeded as a #4, which will make reaching a Sweet 16 difficult, but teams that don’t turn the ball over and handle pressure well tend to fare well against Bob Huggins’ press defense.
Arizona as a 2-seed would be a sizable roadblock to the Final 4, especially since they’re clearly playing well, but 3-seed Florida State is obviously a team we’d love to find in an elite 8 match-up, given our history.
As mentioned above, Princeton is a formidable foe and we should be on upset alert Thursday afternoon. Alstein will have more on the Tigers later in the week, but they’re basically a poor man’s version of the Irish on offense. They move, they find open looks and they shoot. They take care of the basketball and are a threat to get hot, but no more so than we are.
The Rest of the Bracket
In the end, Mike Brey’s squad drew a manageable region. The committee didn’t pave a golden path to glory for the Irish, but they didn’t give them an impossible task either. What’s more, comparing the paths Notre Dame to the teams erroneously ahead of the Irish, you quickly realize we might have actually come out ahead.
Minnesota draws potential giant killer Middle Tennessee St. (you may remember last year taking down Michigan St.) and then matches up with Butler to reach the S16. Their reward, should they pass those tests, would be UNC and then likely Kentucky. No thanks.
Meanwhile, in the East, Virginia and Florida should match up in a battle of (if you believe KenPom’s rankings) top 10 teams. Then the winner will be rewarded with #1 overall seed Villanova. Ouch.
And while that matchup will be a battle, the best matchup of the first weekend will happen in Indianapolis on Sunday if Wichita St can advance to face Kentucky. Wichita St, a 10 seed, is currently listed as KP’s #8 (overall!) team while Kentucky clocks in at #4. This means that in addition to Virginia/Florida (#7 vs. #9) we could also find ourselves with #4 vs. #8 before heading to bed Sunday night.
Bubble
Given how much coverage it gets, I’d be remiss not to mention that Syracuse and Illinois St. were the casualties at the wire. Whether or not Rhode Island’s dismantling of VCU on Sunday afternoon was needed to punch their ticket, it certainly didn’t help Syracuse’s case. I, for one, was good with Syracuse’s exclusion. ACC bragging rights are fine, but Syracuse doesn’t bring any value to the NCAA Tournament. None.
Plus, they get a great first round NIT matchup!
More To Come
The whole basketball crew will be back Tuesday with a round-table discussion of everything Madness and as mentioned, Alstein will have an opponent preview on game-day.
It’s March and there are no easy paths left – time to get started!
I was happy enough with the draw. We may have been playing like a 3 seed over the last month, but from our body of work, 5 seems fair. Even if you just look at the two most used metrics, we were 23 in RPI and 25 in Kenpom. That suggests a 6/7 seed would have been in the discussion.
All 12 seeds are going to be dangerous, but I think Princeton would have been my first pick. They play better defense than offense and are 1-5 against the RPI top 100. The 3 other 12 seeds are all better offensively and have beat more and better teams in the top 100.
West Virginia is a bit of a wildcard. I’ve watched some of their games and don’t know what to think. Maybe you could classify them as a middle-class man’s Louisville who presses even more and isn’t as good at half-court defense? Kenpom loves them, RPI hates them (that might be a good thing, but look at Arizona, they’re the reverse and I think they would handle WVU). Maybe we can just fall back on Brey owning Huggins from the Big East days. ‘Own’ is a stretch, but he had a winning record unless my memory is off.
Noon on Thursday can’t get here soon enough, but being the first game is awful. Have to avoid social media and pesky co-workers all afternoon. And if we do lose, I won’t be able to really enjoy any of the games from the first 2 rounds.
Yep, we’re probably the worst case scenario 5 for WVU. Not to say that the game will be more than a toss up, but I can’t imagine Huggins would be happy facing so many strong ball-handlers.
Princeton or Nevada are the two 12 seeds I would have wanted to play as a 5. Princeton has nobody who is capable of breaking down a defense by getting to the rim. I think we should be fine defensively, and if we shoot decently, I would feel confident in a win. Even if we struggle from the outside, I think that’s a team we should beat.
I have no idea how good Gonzaga is, but I absolutely know I don’t want to play UNC or Kansas. I also won’t complain about not having to see Josh Hart again.
The only team from the bottom of the bracket that I wouldn’t pick us to win against is Arizona. Maryland, Xavier, St. Mary’s, and VCU have all looked very underwhelming over the past few weeks, and we all know what we just did against FSU. Obviously all of that would be incredibly far down the road and exceed my wildest expectations (although I am expecting us to get to the Sweet 16).
So really, I can’t complain about the bracket at all for us, other than to say that it is ridiculous that Minnesota is in Milwaukee over us. That’s an absolute joke. Still, I think I’d rather be in Buffalo with Princeton and WVU than Milwaukee with MTSU and Butler (and UNC and Kentucky and UCLA).
I’d love a shot at Kansas as my 1 seed. I think Zaga>Kansas this year by a pretty large margin. But you’re right, no thanks on UNC or Nova.
My biggest fear on Princeton is that they just start launching 3s and by some miracle they all go in. Everyone’s seen “that team” in the tournament – the one who gets inexplicably hot over a short period of time and down goes a big favorite. Barring the small chance that happens, I think we’ll be fine.
I actually think the bottom of the bracket (outside of Zona) being soft is a bit of a problem. Odds that Arizona makes the E8 go up considerably given that they’re playing FSU/Maryland in the S16 and St. Mary’s/VCU in the 2nd round. The best possible option for the other side of every bracket is underrated teams on the underdog lines. We’d love to see a under-seeded 8 (who’s closer to a 6) on the 8/9 line because it means the 1 seed has a higher chance of falling before they get to us. Likewise, a talented 6 or 7 or 10 seed increases the chances that the 2 or 3 seeds don’t make it to us (assuming we get there ourselves). Even 6 seed who got screwed by the committee is a better draw in the E8 than a low end 2 or 3 seed!
Looking at the rest of the field. ESPN was clamoring about geography being emphasized too much and they might have something. There’s so many good teams in the Midwest US, they should probably just add another site (they’re really aren’t many good teams near Buffalo NY). Florida for example was pretty poor down the stretch, but it was convenient to give them a 4 and send them to Orlando.
Some of the seedings stuck out to me. I think Wisconsin and Wichita State were the biggest headscratchers. I would have had Wisky at 6 and Wichita State at 7.
Underseeded: Wisconsin, Wichita State, SMU
Overseeded: Vanderbilt, Florida St, Maryland
Seriously, what is up with Vandy. When I saw they got a 9 I was absolutely shocked. Their resume is barely tournament worthy. The 7th best team in a not very good conference that only has 4 wins to be proud of (and 3 were over the same team!). Plus a loss on their resume to one of the worst P-5 teams in the country.
I disagree wholeheartedly on Wisconsin and SMU. Both are exactly where they deserve to be, in my opinion.
Wisconsin has been in freefall for weeks. In the last month, they lost at home to Northwestern and Iowa, blown out at Ohio St, to Michigan twice (road and neutral) and to Michigan St. The only wins they have over tournament teams the entire YEAR are a win over Marquette plus conference wins over Michigan (home), Maryland, Minnesota 2x and Northwestern. Basically, if your name starts with M, Wisconsin has a shot, otherwise, forget about it. 6 wins against tournament opponents (none seeded higher than overrated Minnesota/Maryland on the 5/6 lines) plus multiple losses to non-tournament teams does not a resume make.
SMU or Cinci probably should have a 5 seed over Minnesota, but both have very weak resumes. SMU has exactly two wins over tournament teams vs. Cincinnati and Cincinnati (home/neutral, lost on the road). SMU lost to USC, Boise St. and Michigan in non-conference and then played in a garbage conference with only one other legit team. There is definitely value to cleaning up all of conference play, but hard to get too up in arms over them. At least Cincinnati knocked off Iowa St and Xavier over the course of the year.
As for Wichita St, I tend to think they’re too low as a 10 seed, but looking back at their resume, they have ZERO wins over tournament teams. They lost to Michigan St, Oklahoma St and Louisville and none was particularly close. They split with Illinois St in the regular season and then pounded them in the MVC title game, but aside from those two wins, Wichita St’s best win is KenPom rated #65 Oklahoma. So I guess what I’m saying is from a resume standpoint, I get it. From a talent perspective…I’m just gonna sit back and get my popcorn ready for Sunday’s shot against Kentucky.
My under/overseeded list would be…
Under: Wichita St, Middle Tennessee St, maybe ND, UCLA and/or Butler (by small margins each)
Over: South Carolina, Vandy, Minnesota (does this cancel out MTSU’s underseeded-ness?), maybe Oklahoma St or Miami (small margins each, again)
Keep in mind that the committee has tried to use seeding to “send a message” to programs to schedule better out-of-conference games early in the season. That causes them to necessarily under-value conference tournament success. Since you can’t pick your conference tournament games, they don’t have as much scheduling value to the committee. I get why they do it and tough non-conference games are good for the sport, but it kinda sucks too.
That seems a bit silly since of course if you advance far into a conference tourney you are likely to play top teams (in the ACC perhaps multiple top teams). Why not get the same credit for beating a top team whether you scheduled it or not?
You’re confusing credit with incentive.
The NCAA is using seeding as an incentive. Therefore, it is manipulating the amount of credit it gives teams for doing various things it likes. In particular, they want P5 schools to play P5 schools in early season match-ups to drive TV ratings.
I wonder what metric they are using to evalueate SOS? ND has never been good at hitting the sweet spot of scheduling teams in the RPI 150-200 range vs. 250+, where you’re still pretty much guaranteed a win, but it doesn’t hurt your numbers as much.
Villanova, Purdue, Iowa, Colorado, Texas/Northwestern is not a terrible slate of games, but we still rank 184 in RPI and 277 in Kenpom in terms of non conf SOS. It didn’t help that Texas and Colorado were worse than anticipated.
In regards to Wisconsin, compare their resume to Maryland, who ended up as a 6 seed. They’re pretty darn close and Wisconsin owns the head to head. I get that Wisconsin’s resume is not stellar but who’s is in the 6-8 range? With teams like SMU who have gaudy records but lack quality wins, you are forced to use the eye test/metrics. SMU looks like a really good team, but if the committee is seeding based solely on resume I can live with that, but they never really come out and say that. Inconsistency reigns supreme.
I’m not sure how I confused them. You specifically state that they aren’t getting the same credit (the incentive is simply the reason for not giving the same credit). I just think that is silly. If you play top teams (whether you scheduled them or not) you should get credit for beating them.
Sorry… poor word choice. I’m not disagreeing with you, just pointing out that the committee values games you elect to play vs. those assigned to you within your conference. Dumb but true.
It’s all good. I understand what you are saying now. Have they ever made this point in the past or has it never really been made so forcefully because no team has ever beaten 3 top 10 opponents in a conf. tourney (and so it was never really a clear issue)?
I was predisposed to be irritated at the 5 seed after the lacrosse game on Sunday, but I’m pretty happy with the region. The 12:15 start time is stupid though — enjoy North Dakota in primetime everyone.
Looks like i will be the only person on the board to be happy with the 1215 time slot – means I don’t have to get up in the middle of the night!
I’m also happy with it (but I understand for those who have regular full-time jobs this would be a pain)! As a grad student writing my dissertation, I can use some of normal slotted lunch time to watch the game.
KG, this works for you too?
Nope. I am lecturing until noon. Then I’ve got a makeup class for one of my classes I’m missing tomorrow due to the snow. But you’re GD right I’ll have it up in a window on my computer.
The scheduling committee must have gotten confused…usually they feel obligated to put us on St Pat’s Day (because we’re the Irish, see), but someone must have told them the name is French, so they put us on for the prime time slot in Paris.
Et oui! Enfin, ils réalisent que nous sommes français d’origine!
Vraiment? Quel dommage.