We should be used to this by now. College football provides us the opportunity to build a case for every program and point out weekly which direction they are headed. For Notre Dame, they were supposed to be headed upward (still an outside shot at the playoffs!) while it was time for Michigan to be resigned to their fate as a middling team well beyond competing in the Big Ten, let alone in the national picture.
College football is never so smooth, especially in heated rivalry games. While Notre Dame’s performance in totality was somewhat puzzling, an ugly loss on a big stage and a bunch of frustrating horrors piling up in the Big House were not. If you’re into being humbled quickly this is the sport for you.
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 14 | 45 |
| Plays | 60 | 71 |
| Total Yards | 180 | 437 |
| Yards Per Play | 3.00 | 6.15 |
| Conversions | 3/16 | 4/13 |
| Completions | 11 | 8 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 4.58 | 9.57 |
| Rushes | 31 | 57 |
| Rushing Success | 27.5% | 51.8% |
| 10+ Yds Rushing | 0 | 8 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 25.3% | 35.0% |
Offense
QB: F
RB: D-
TE: C
OL: D+
WR: F
I really try not to overreact to one game (especially in all the rain) but after this performance it feels like the Irish are finally exposed once and for all in 2019 on offense. Slow, no one to make a play with the ball in their hands, and a quarterback who looks like his head is a constant fire alarm going off.
Notre Dame’s worst fears came true as Michigan’s defensive speed, especially at linebacker, completely neutralized the Irish running game, just as DC Don Brown wished. To open the game, Notre Dame ran the ball on their first 7 opportunities on first down for a total of 9 yards and were completely off schedule virtually the entire night. I’ve been frustrated all season by throwing too much on first down, the weather pretty much dictated you had to run the entire first half on these snaps, and it failed miserably.
At the break, Notre Dame only mustered 3 successful running plays and by the time of their second-to-last drive of the game with 8:46 remaining in the 4th quarter there were only 4 successful rushing plays total. Four!
Michigan absolutely cratered Notre Dame’s run game.
When they needed him most, Ian Book was not up to the task of providing any semblance of productivity as a passer nor as a team captain to provide stability for the offense. Granted, the rain didn’t do the Irish quarterback any favors in a moment when his side had no run game to rely on. Prior to Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson’s back-breaking 8-yard touchdown pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones to put Michigan up 24-7, the two quarterbacks sported lines of 6 of 20 for 63 yards for Book and 2 of 8 for 22 yards for Patterson.
When it was finished, Book threw more than twice as many passes as Patterson for 27 fewer yards. Ouch.
Rushing Success
Jones – 1 of 8 (12.5%)
Book – 2 of 5 (40%)
Jurkovec – 1 of 4 (25%)
Smith – 3 of 5 (60%)
Armstrong – 0 of 3 (0%)
Davis – 1 of 2 (50%)
Lenzy – 0 of 1 (0%)
If one thing is clear, Notre Dame lacked playmakers to make a dent against Michigan.
Once upon a time, the return from injuries for Cole Kmet, Michael Young, and Jafar Armstrong were supposed to take this offense to a new level. Kmet has lived up to the billing despite being sparsely targeted while Michael Young disappointed before announcing a transfer on Friday never showing up in Ann Arbor and Armstrong was a complete no-show against Michigan.
If Armstrong is to be a difference maker perhaps it will take a while for him to round into form. On Saturday night he was targeted 7 times for 7 total yards which doesn’t include a trio of poor kick returns for 14, 20, and 12 yards respectively.
There are so many questions on offense right now. Mainly, they have showed signs all year that Book cannot carry things with his arm (the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th receivers were held without a catch against Michigan), the run game can’t get going against top defenses, and the coaches are hoping at some point the short-passing game is going to spring a bunch of explosive plays injecting much-needed confidence into quarterback and teammates alike. It’s just not happening.
Defense
DL: C-
LB: D+
DB: F
If you felt bad about the offense please allow the defense to make you feel even worse!
Michigan appeared to have the perfect game plan to expose the Irish in this weather. They used pulling linemen in a clever way to counter the aggressive Irish defensive line (look at how many of Michigan’s best runs featured a d-lineman in the backfield seemingly ready to make a play with the ball carrier running away), rendered Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah useless (6 quiet tackles, zero stuffs), took their chances testing the inside linebackers (White and Bilal combined for an impressive 7.5 stuffs but were burnt a handful of times on other runs), and bet the Irish safeties wouldn’t tackle well enough in a game with tons of run plays.
At least the front seven was able to make some plays against Michigan. It feels like the defensive backs, and safeties especially, were working on more of a disappearing act. So many snaps felt like if White or Bilal weren’t making the tackle it was going to be a positive play for the Wolverines.
Stuffs vs. Michigan
(season stuffs in parentheses)
White – 4.5 (17)
Bilal – 3 (11.5)
Kareem – 2.5 (11)
Ademilola, Jay – 1.5 (8)
Ogundeji – 1 (5)
Jones, Jamir – 1 (6.5)
Lamb – 1 (2)
Hinish – 1 (6.5)
Genmark Heath – 1 (1)
Gilman – 0.5 (7.5)
Lacey – 0.5 (2)
Pride – 0.5 (0.5)
There was a period in the middle of the game where it looked like Notre Dame’s defense was correcting itself. To be fair, Michigan had 26 unsuccessful runs and as mentioned Patterson didn’t do much until well into the second half. While up 17-0, the Wolverines ran 21 plays for 21 yards on 6 series just barely opening the door for a possible Notre Dame comeback.
It was not meant to be. Michigan’s offense pounded their way to 28(!) successful run plays which is bad enough if it weren’t almost a third of them going for at least 10 yards.
The Irish defense got completely dominated physically in a way that didn’t seem possible. Is it just a one-off situation in a rivalry game? Maybe but the bad taste won’t go away any time soon.
Final Thoughts
Program Big Picture Thoughts: Apathy is far worse than anger. Something dawned on me earlier this year where I realized I hadn’t paid attention to any of the Brian Kelly speeches that are featured on the ICON series videos, maybe for at least a couple years. What’s been said has been said before, there’s nothing new worth discovering I’m just fast forwarding through that fluff. This game–against Michigan of all teams–feels like it might be the turning point for many fans of the program. The ceiling has to be higher than this and these face plants have to stop happening so frequently. The prospect of going through another off-season of trying to make things different (good god the articles that will be generated kill me now I’m not reading a single word) seems exhausting. That’s probably not a good enough reason to fire Kelly if you’re making that decision but it’s a really raw and soul-sucking feeling for fans.
I’m curious to see if there’s any movement among the national media in reaction to this loss. To date, they’ve been fairly positive and plenty defensive in their view of Brian Kelly. Does that start to turn and if so does that begin conversations for others on campus? Kelly is still under contract through 2021, although the lack of an extension is somewhat curious right now. Even though 10-2 is still well within reach (ND should be double-digit favorites the rest of the way or very close to it) this is the type of loss where a coach’s seat should get a whole lot warmer.
When was the last time Book took a hit in the pocket while throwing? I thought it was interesting that Patterson got blasted in the pocket while throwing a touchdown pass while I can’t remember the last time Book stood in there and delivered a throw while taking a physical shot to his body.
Many are done with Book and I get it. This certainly clouds his situation for next year, although I doubt his job is really in danger for this year. Things will get dicey at times, especially in front of the home crowd, but it’ll take at least a terrible first half for him to be benched and I’m not sure the remaining schedule has that talent to completely shut the Irish down, but maybe I’m wrong.
I will not judge the way Jurkovec performed in this one (did he look really slow as a runner or was it just me?) just like I didn’t put much stock into Book’s performance in the 2017 Miami loss. It’s still difficult to know if Jurkovec is ready to run the offense for a whole game, although working him in certain situations might be on the table from here on out. That likely makes things really messy until the year finishes and likely means Book follows the tradition of moving on from South Bend with an extra year of eligibility remaining.
Notre Dame’s 3rd through 9th drives yielded 28 yards on 25 plays. That’s exactly how you lose big road games.
The Jonathan Jones attempted fumble recovery after Bo Bauer’s blocked punt might be one of the dumbest decisions I’ve witnessed from a Notre Dame player in years. That’s a senior special teams mainstay making a boneheaded move! I’d bet at least 70% of Notre Dame fans knew the game was lost at this specific moment.
Clark Lea was due for a market correction. Maybe not quite this big but it’s reality. Now what? I’m really interested to see how the defense responds the rest of the way. I’ve never had strong feelings either way about Chip Long, I can see this being his last with Notre Dame though.
Only a pair of assisted tackles for Julian Okwara on the stat sheet who does not look like he will be sniffing the 1st round this spring. Defensive line is supposed to rule the world on defense–and outside of Khalid Kareem who played well at times–this group (and Okwara) need to be better in the big games.
This loss should reverberate for a really long time which I think makes it far different than the 2017 Miami loss in which the Irish were more competitive and were killed by poor quarterback play and being -4 on turnovers. Was there anything positive to take away from being blown out and run over by Michigan? Now, it’ll be a mind-bending 14 years sitting on this loss wondering what went wrong.
I think it will be interesting and telling as to whether or not Kelly receives a contract extension this offseason. I’d like to think he won’t.
If he does it will be a damning statement towards this AD and administration.
Ehh, I mean it depends. Win out and that’s 3 straight double digit wins and a 32-6 record in the past 3 years (and 4/5 last seasons of 10+ wins). After the emotion of losing settles, that’s really good results, even if not the desired heights of championships.
I feel like you kinda should extend a guy winning at a 84% clip, even if the team faceplants in the most important games. There’s, what, like 3 coaches who can/do win titles in the modern game, and the reality is none of them are coming to Notre Dame, so firing a coach driving very good results is only likely to result in worse results short-term.
It also depends on the length of the extension. Two extra years (my guess if it happens) would take him through 2023 which isn’t too bad, assuming he likely stays here for a couple more years and you’re only looking at a 2-year buyout should it come to pass.
Good point, and I agree completely. Kelly isn’t going to be around for 5+ years at this point and I think he acknowledges that as well. If he can stabilize this team and get to 23-3 in the last two years, a moderate extension makes a lot of sense to me moving forward.
Eric, are you thinking retirement (how.old is he now?)or that he will be pushed out?
No clue! Until he signs an extension I’m leaning ever-so-slightly toward he walks away after 2021 but that seems way too cozy and neat to actually happen.
Yea he’s probably till a little young to “retire” soon – at 58 currently. I just thought he had mentioned like in 10 years he’d be on the beach (and that was a few years ago).
Eh, that’s kind of a “fun with endpoints” type of picking and choosing. If you had told Jack Swarbrick before giving Kelly his last contract extension that he’d have 14 losses in the next four seasons, I would hope that would at least give him pause.
As the dust is settling and the hurt is wearing off, I think it might make sense for recruiting purposes to give him a one-year extension. It would be nice if they could add something to make the buyout smaller if he loses 3+ game next year or something.
Pointing out the last 3 seasons wasn’t picked at random, the “Kelly 2.0” retool is a pretty reasonable place look at the team’s recent performance. It does punt the 4-8 year, but that was something the admin was willing to do by not firing Kelly after 2016 and letting him reboot the program himself in the first place.
Really we should see how this year ends. 11-2 with a NY6 win is a no-brainer to extend, if they can get there. Like 9-4 or something if it goes off the rails is a much different landing spot.
I’ve decided that Book is the opposite of Rees. TR was a statue in the pocket, Book doesn’t know what a pocket is for. TR would decide where he was going before the receiver was there (frequently it seemed even before the snap). Book has to see it before he’ll throw it. The way to beat TR was to rush 3 and drop 8, closing off his anticipatory windows. The way to beat Book is to bring the house, not giving him time to see an opening.
I actually think that this explains Book’s “regression.” Is he actually less decisive this year? Or is it that defenses have figured out to cut off his quick throws? He was “decisive” last year because he’d SEE the short throws come open. Now they’re not there, and he has nothing to decide on, because deep throws require anticipating the opening – not seeing it. Ultimately I think he’s just as “good” as he was last year. But there’s enough film on him that his limitations have become a serious problem against decent+ defenses. I’m not sure Jurkovic is better, but I do wonder if Book has hit his ceiling.
The Book era is over. Wimbush couldn’t complete a dump off pass, but at least he could run and throw downfield. Say what you will about him, but he beat Michigan and came closer against Georgia. Once again, a second year starting QB under Kelly has apparently lost his damn mind and can’t do normal football things, like throwing properly or stepping up in the pocket. Jurk seems to be ruined as well. We need to jettison every on staff responsible for the passing game, an just hope Clark or Pyne can look good before additional coaching and game experience ruin them.
Did you see Brady Quinn’s tweet during the game? Idk how to link tweets but all he said was “Step. Up. In. The. Pocket.” When a national analyst is criticizing a player like that, it’s a bad sign
Quinn was also fairly blunt and critical of Book a few weeks ago when BQ was on Sampson/Fortuna’s pod. I don’t sense that Quinn has ever really held Book in a good light, or at least Brady’s expectation of what Book should be able to do by now is very, very high, and obviously Book isn’t living up to it.
Fire Long. And Alexander. And Rees. People heaped shit on Denson, but though his recruiting was awful, his players actually produced. This passing game is a disaster and hasn’t been that great since 2015. It’s time for some accountability.
“Apathy is far worse than anger.”
This pretty much nails the thoughts I had after this game. The honest truth is I’m becoming a fair weather fan of ND, which is to say not much of a fan at all. I was a die hard fan most of my life. The loss to Alabama just made me disappointed, and angry at people talking trash about ND.
The Miami game was definitely a turning point. Even if it was more explainable than this, it was still very difficult to watch ND get smacked by a team that had struggled against mediocre teams all year long, and also happened to be an extremely obnoxious fan base that hates ND.
You need to see some big exciting wins to make up for stuff like that. Beating a foundering USC or late stage Hoke Michigan team doesn’t cut it.
So I found myself, for the first time in my life, skipping some ND games. It used to feel like a disaster if I missed part of the Spring game. This year I found myself just not even interested in watching ND play Bowling Green. Just wasn’t locked in the way I used to be, where you’re excited just to see the team play.
Then to watch ND just get absolutely humiliated by Michigan, in the last time they’ll meet until I’m almost 50 years old, I’m just wondering why I emotionally invest in this anymore.
I used to take the losses so hard. I still do, but not nearly as hard as I used to. I’ve become more numb to them than I ever would have expected.
As much as I don’t want it to happen, it would actually be easier if we just perpetually sucked. At least then I wouldn’t have to get my hopes up just to be let down again, and again, and again in HUMILIATING fashion. I wouldn’t have to try and convince myself that the lost to Clemson wasn’t that bad or that if the refs didn’t screw us early against Bama we might have had a chance.
Trust me my man, perpetually sucking is definitely not easier than the status quo. I’d take Saturday night over the 2007 season any day of the week.
Eh…I’m a Knicks fan so I completely understand the perpetually sucking aspect. My point is that its easier to be a Knicks fan right now because I don’t get excited about them…ever. Compare that to ND and the Giants who give me glimmers of hope and at times have me thinking they’re going to finally turn the corner just to be let down. Though, at least the Giants have been able to win 2 miracle Super Bowls recently.
I remember listening to the Ohio St.- Mich. game last year and laughing at the ineptness of Michigan. I suspect many around the country were doing the same with ND on Saturday night. I don’t see the sense with investing much more emotionally, so long as Brian Kelly is the coach. Yes, I’ll still follow the team but, I don’t believe ND can get over the last hurdle or two with Kelly as coach. The rain probably made it worse but does anyone think Michigan wouldn’t have kicked our ass if the weather had been better ?
Yes somehow i do think the game would have been wildly different without the rain.
Unfortunately, I think the rain actually hurt them more than us. Patterson was visibly struggling, and they had to give up on the pass for most of the game. I think the fourth quarter onslaught would’ve happened earlier. Just throughly outcoached on both sides all night.
Anything’s possible, but I had a bad feeling just seeing all that rain coming down. ND’s defense was in position a lot of times but whiffed on tackles more than normal. The offense, meh, I don’t know that they had a winning game plan but we’ve seen time and again the ND offense isn’t great in bad elements.
I was surprised with Michigan’s team speed on defense and also that their o-line was better than I thought. I’ll give them that. Obviously two huge aspects of the game. I felt like ND just no-showed though. Had about the worst possible result. Replay the game under clear conditions and I don’t think it would have been any worse, this was about the worst possible outcome.
The bigger question is why does the “worst possible outcome” game always keep happening?
This is the second game in a row that I thought the tackling was pretty bad.
Let’s not forget that there were no classes last week. Add to that having a bye week and this team should have been zeroed in.
Football was a verb – wouldn’t that mean the rain hurt us more?
Usually in the rain, you figure a strong running team benefits where a passing team gets hurt by the rain. We couldn’t run so don’t you think we could have passed better if it was not a monsoon at the beginning? And if they had to pass a little more or even could pass a little more they may have been worse on offense.
I’d put it differently–Patterson didn’t have to pass because they ran it down our throats. We, on the other hand, had to pass because our run game was totally inept in execution and play calling. Doing that in a rainstorm is a formula for what we saw happen.Join the discussion…
I don’t really see how. The rain didn’t affect their run game so it shouldn’t have affected ours. It didn’t affect their D, so it shouldn’t have affected ours. The rain didn’t cause the Oline to forget how to block.
NDNation has gotten ahead of the hate. Some of them have been refusing to watch as long as BK is coach for as many as 10 years.
/s see, they were right all along /s
After that many starts, I just don’t see Book improving. Jurk seems to struggle throwing a spiral, but some of his throws, granted in garbage time, actually showed some anticipation. I would like to see him play a lot the next 5 games, but we know Kelly doesn’t think like that and it won’t happen unless Book is awful in a first half like you said.
I feel like we are where LSU ended up under Les Miles. With a 10-2 or 9-3 season basically every year. Considered good but not great. Most programs in the country would like to be where we are. But I now understand firing him…cause at 10-2 only the big games matter in a sense and when you cant win those you cant make the leap. I dont see it happening under Kelly even though I appreciate how far he has brought the program we are going to need someone else to take the next step.
One thing I liked to see was the skirmish with USC, it showed that this team had an edge to it but I didnt see that same attitude Saturday and I was dissapointed
Remember when Nebraska fired Frank Solich after a 10 win season? They got a ton of criticism in the national press, but they were close enough to their historical greatness that they knew good wasn’t good enough. As they (and we) have shown, though, finding the guy who can get you up the hill to great is easier said than done
I’m not really calling for Kelly’s job I actually thought firing Miles was foolish although it seems like it could work out for them this year. To make a move like that you have to be certain in the next hire. I just understand it more, and how being stuck in this spot kinda sucks but its still better than most.
How long before a decline begins or do you just stay “stuck”?
Probably when they’re not 17-3 in the last 20 (and possibly 22-3 by the end of this season).
I understand Hooks but, for me, getting curbed stomped by a probable 3 loss Michigan team takes much of the gloss off of 10 & 2 .
I feel ya on that. To me the season is still redeemable since they could conceivably still end up in a NY6 game and accomplish something they haven’t in a long time to win a big game…But obviously losing big to Michigan stains it quite a bit, especially 2 days afterwards. Don’t blame anyone for feeling like that.
The chances that 10-2 ND is in the NY6 is pretty low. We need chaos plus no other alternative attractive 10-2 team (money-wise, I mean). Seems unlikely.
Depends on how the playoff rankings look. Notre Dame is 16th in the AP right now, not really that much of a blow to the future…ND will probably only need to get to about 10th to guarantee a NY6. It’s not really that hard to imagine enough chaos to get there, and in fact many more losses are still to come for a lot of the teams higher in the rankings.
Getting to 10-2 is the part that’s more interesting, if they do that I find it tough to imagine getting left out.
Also, do not forget the double-edge of being such a well-known program — ND always seems to end up in bowl games that are a notch too high for them just because the ND brand will sell tickets
10th probably won’t do it this year, because there’s just one slot for ND’s availability as this is a non-Rose/non-Orange playoff year. We’d need a bit of chaos with the top teams going down, plus Minny and Baylor need to lose at least two games and ideally the #2 team in the Pac-12 doesn’t pick up its second loss in the P12CG.
Do we have a chance to win a NY6 bowl game? I’m seriously asking. I’m not sure what our obligations are as far as what bowls we can get into and who we could possibly face. If it’s a top 15ish team with a decent defense I’ll assume another bowl loss.
Very much great chances to win, it’ll probably be more difficult to get into a NY6 than win it this year for Notre Dame. The only NY6 game ND would get into at this point is the Cotton, where the opponent almost certainly be a G5 team (likely SMU or App State).
It’s not a sure bet they’ll make it, and at this rate just bouncing back to win out is a tall enough task to worry about, but chaos is the name of the game, and I don’t think ND is as damaged nationally or perception-wise as much as it may seem. They are highest rated 2 loss team (behind Michigan, who has more losses coming).
I was at the Cincinnati game during our bye week and “good” G5 football is practically a different sport than the ND team that played against USC. The talent difference in the last Cotton Bowl would look microscopic in comparison.
So does that do anything to dispel our recent history? If we win a NY6 bowl against a g5 team does it really say anything about the program going forward?
First major bowl win since what, 1994, matters regardless of competition. Though I don’t think anyone will be deluded into thinking it would matter as much as beating a legit top-5 team or anything. It still would be a good step for a program to take if they can get there.
I think theres an element of fools gold to it. Major bowls are major because they match up top teams. Just because the G5 was able to negotiate themselves a position in the bowls doesn’t mean that beating App St would be the same thing as beating Ohio St in the Fiesta Bowl would have been.
And that’s not tp mention the fact that even if we could get selected we could still end up playing OU to G5’s Boise, furthering the ignominy
It’s funny, no one gave ND any credit for, and few seemingly even remember, the Citrus Bowl win over LSU, which very likely would be a more impressive win by any measure than a hypothetical Cotton Bowl win over whoever. And if they did win the Cotton, most would probably say it doesn’t count because it wasn’t a ‘big boy’. The lesson, as usual, is don’t worry about what others say.
LSU is another example of butt lucky. They didn’t want Orgeron at all, but Tom Herman – who looks like an inferior coach to Orgeron right now – spurned them and no one else good wanted the job, so they landed on Orgeron with the probable intention of firing him the second things got bad. Now they’re #1 in the country and a damn near shoo-in for the playoff even if they lose to Alabama.
We still haven’t caught that lucky break, and we need to, very soon.
Depends how you want to look at it… We could be stuck with George O’Leary right now! Technically that could be our lucky break.
George O’Leary was a rock-solid coach in his day, and a damn sight better than Willingham (or Weis, who in this hypothetical likely never ends up at ND). I won’t pretend to know where we’d be today if that hire had stuck, but losing him was probably a net negative for ND football in at least the mid to late 2000s.
You know, for some reason I had it in my head that O’Leary was hired, then fired and then they hired Kelly. I got my timeline confused. My mistake.
So yes, O’Leary could have been an upgrade to Willingham/Weis but I doubt he would have been an upgrade to Kelly was my point.
Georgia followed the same path when Athletic Director Greg McGarity fired Mark Richt despite Richt’s overall record of 145-51 in 15 seasons as head coach. The ‘Dawgs were always a good program under his leadership, but they couldn’t quite get over that final hurdle to greatness. Richt’s successor — Kirby Smart — took the ‘Dawgs to the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff national championship game in his second season on the job. It goes to show that it is possible to find a coach who is capable of getting a program over that aforementioned final hurdle. Is Notre Dame willing to take that leap of faith? I suppose that remains to be seen.
So Kirby Smart took Georgia to the same place that Brian Kelly has taken Notre Dame, and that’s the reason why firing Kelly would be a good decision? Uh I guess.
Smart got a step further than Kelly, to be fair; winning that Rose Bowl by itself is miles better than anything Kelly has ever done. And if his defense hadn’t shut down Jalen Hurts so effectively that Saban pulled the panic parachute and brought in Tua, they probably have a title right now (and almost got one anyway). But OTOH, Smart also has had random faceplants last year and this year, so he’s not perfect either.
Your latter point stands out. It’s tough to pump up Kirby when he’s potentially downswing of results the past few years (SEC champ-> SEC title game -> potentially not winning the division if they lose to UF this weekend). At this point the Georgia fans aren’t even sold on the job Smart has done as of late with bad in-game management decisions and losses.
Also is it even relevant, could ND hire the next Kirby Smart who is going to come in and instantly ratchet up recruiting to the very top? Hugely doubtful, so it’s not even a very valid comparable for this situation.
I mean, if ND hadn’t played an all-time great Clemson last year and instead got matched up with a playoff team that played no defense whatsoever, who knows if Kelly would have gotten to his 2nd national title appearance.
Anyway, it’s just a weird comparison to me. The knock against Kelly is his weird offensive play-calling in big games. So let’s hold Kirby Smart up as the shining example?
(And I don’t really care what happens with Kelly. I think he was just what this program needed at the time he was hired, and I wasn’t happy with the hiring at the time, which I was definitely wrong on. If he gets an extension, fine, whatever. If they decide to move on, fine, whatever.)
In 2017, Smart led the ‘Dawgs to victories over #4 Auburn in the SEC Championship Game and #2 Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl before going to overtime and losing an extremely hard-fought game to Alabama in the College Football Playoff national championship game. The two aforementioned victories are more than Kelly has accomplished in 10 seasons on the job at Notre Dame.
Well, in fairness, he had damn good talent to work with.
Getting that talent is part of the coaches job.
Brian Kelly has had 10 years to recruit the type of top-level talent necessary to compete for championships. That’s all that needs to be said.
I’ve been comparing Brian Kelly being the head coach at Notre Dame to dating a girl who’s a 7 on the 10 scale. She’s got average looks and has a decent personality, but she’s nothing worth writing home about. Kelly will get you wins against average/below-average competition and bring in some decent recruiting classes, but won’t ever deliver on the big stage. Both the “7” and Brian Kelly will always leave a man yearning for more.
After the debacle at Miami in ’17, the blowout loss to Clemson in last year’s College Football Playoff semi-final and the shellacking in Ann Arbor on Saturday, it’s time for the ND brass to decide if it’s content with what Kelly offers: 9-3/8-4 type seasons with double-digit win seasons sprinkled in between. If Notre Dame as a university truly prides itself on striving to be the best in all endeavors, wouldn’t it be hypocritical to commit to Kelly beyond 2021?
I understand the whole “Notre Disney” concept in which the ND brass will be content with Kelly as long as the money keeps flowing in from NBC, ticket sales, apparel sales, etc. If that’s the route the administration will go, I’ll likely be done as a Notre Dame fan. Just my two cents.
Lol go back to NDNation with this trash.
I’m not a member of that cesspool. It’s too bad you couldn’t offer a coherent counter-argument. Have a great day!
The whole “all they care about is money” thing really doesn’t apply. If anything, the past couple decades have proven that the amount of money the school makes is pretty stable in the big picture whether Notre Dame is 7-6 or 10-3. And if anything, they could make a little more money if a new coach could take the Irish to the next level.
I don’t think gaining or losing a little bit of money is a driving factor.
Eric, that’s a fair point. I still worry about what standard the powers that be hold the football program to. Is 9-3/8-4 going to be good enough for them on a consistent basis? I feel it’s a legitimate question, and one that needs to be answered after this season. If I was on the board of trustees, I’d feel it’s time for some soul-searching.
Is this a comment from 2014? Three of the past four years (and possibly 4 of 5 depending on how this one ends) Notre Dame has been 10+ wins. It’s not legitimate to wonder if 8-4/9-3 is enough because the program has been well above that in recent years.
If you want to re-frame that to “is 10-2 or 12-1 enough when you consistently lose and lose badly to the only top-10 competition you face”, then it’s a more accurate and fair conversation. Though I think 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago we would have loved to be in the position to at least be relevant enough to be in the conversation deep into the season, most seasons.
I mean, ASSUMING 10-2 this year (which I’m not holding my breath on) will give us 36 wins over the last 4 years. Which equals out to…..9 wins per year. Take it back to the last 7 years and we get 63 wins in that span which equals….9 wins per year. It doesn’t seem to be that outlandish of a question to ask. The only reason it’s a silly question to me is that they’ve proven they are happy with 9 win seasons considering he’s signed for 2 more years.
That’s exactly my point — is an average of 9 wins per season sufficient for the powers that be at Notre Dame?
I think they’ve made it clear it is and it probably should be. 9 wins per year is nothing to scoff at for MOST teams. Unfortunately, at least in our minds and maybe our minds only, we’re not MOST teams.
Depends if you consider yourself a top tier program or not.
My point was more the corner getting turned in the last few years. It’s not very accurate to frame the program right now as a 8-or-9 win team (“Is 9-3/8-4 going to be good enough for them on a consistent basis”) when they’re potentially going for a 4th double-digit win season in the last 5 years. The average is skewed by a disaster of a year but not accurate in what the clear goals the school/AD see in the program (compete for national titles by piling up wins, staying relevant and in the hunt deep into seasons), of which the program has been mostly seen good success in the past few seasons.
I think you’re missing the forest for the trees here a bit. Every time a Brian Kelly-led team plays on a big stage, it gets embarrassed. While it’s nice to beat up on the likes of Boston College, Navy, Bowling Green, etc., it’s infuriating to not be able to compete with the elite programs throughout the country.
That could be because we are a pretty good, but definitely not elite, football program.
Or do you think we’re elite?
Notre Dame has every available resource to be in college football’s top tier. Unfortunately, the program is held back by a coach who has displayed a clear inability to properly prepare the team to win big games.
Except none of the teams in the “top tier” have the academic restrictions that Notre Dame has. There is no school in that top tier that basically has to give up on recruiting 95% of the top 25 players every year before it even starts. No “top tier” team is turning away a Markese Stepp, for example. Anybody who doesn’t acknowledge that is going to be perpetually disappointed.
Spoiler alert for the 2009 season retrospective, but Notre Dame eventually fires Weis and hires some guy named Brian Kelly from Cincinnati. Kelly’s last UC team ranked #1 in offensive SP+, they were literally the best in the country despite Tony Pike and Zach Colleros splitting time at QB due to injury. That was good enough for them to go 12-0 despite an average defense (#45 in SP+).
Since Kelly has been at ND, his best offense was in 2015 when they ranked #6 in SP+. That offense had maybe the greatest o-line in Notre Dame history, one of ND’s GOAT receivers, and overall an embarrassment of NFL riches. Every other year, Kelly’s offenses have ranked between #18 and #35, so the good to above average range. Something I find fascinating is that in Kelly’s nine previous years at ND, he’s had a top-15 defense five times but only one top-15 offense.
My point: for ND to get where it wants to go, it needs to be great on offense. Of course it needs to be great on defense too, but in both of Kelly’s undefeated regular seasons, Notre Dame had top-10 defenses yet didn’t stand a chance against programs with both awesome defenses and offenses. When your offense is helpless against the likes of Miami and Michigan, what chance does your defense have? I’m not excusing the extremely poor performance from Clark Lea and Co. on Saturday, but what can you do when your offense puts up 52 yards in one half of football?
I think Chip Long is a good OC, but I’ve seen little evidence from both his time at ND and Memphis to suggest he can be the guy to take this offense to the next level. Granted he’s still young and maybe an infusion of talent will help, but this has been more of a systemic issue under Kelly than anyone would like to admit. The guy who led the best offense in the country at Cincy simply hasn’t been able to replicate that at ND, and whether that’s an OC issue or a QB issue (I lean towards QB) is up for debate.
Jeff Quinn has been OC for Kelly through most of his career. I wonder why he hasn’t been given the same title here? The little I remember about Cincy that year was they were a quick passing, slants, screens type of team. Something we’ve never been able to duplicate here.
Chip Long’s offense works until the other team has a good defense. It’s what I’ve always worried about since that season where Paxton Lynch was putting up huge numbers and then got wrecked in a bowl game against a ranked team. So much of it seems to be short, horizontal routes, which works if you can out athlete the opponent or if their defense just can’t tackle. That doesn’t cut it against a good defense, so if their pass rush can get some pressure, they can sit on short routes and pack the box, and Long doesn’t have an answer.
Cincinnati was definitely NOT the best offense in the country that year, just the highest SP+, which isn’t the same thing–witness his bowl game that year when Cinci got demolished.
ND will never have an elite offense without the truly elite talent at QB, deep receivers, and running backs that the real elites have on offense–se Bama, OSU, Clemson most years, LSU this year, USC when they were winning, Texas when they were winning etc. We get strong line and TE talent, and better defensive talent, but we haven’t filled that suite of key offensive skill positions in decades that it takes to be an elite program.
Even if you disagree that UC was not the best offense, it was still an incredible coaching job for that team to average 40 points a game despite turmoil at the QB position and a relative lack of NFL talent. They also had an established identity, something ND has rarely had under Kelly. Putting up 24 points against Florida that year was actually the second-most any other team had against that Gator team save Alabama.
You are right that ND desperately needs elite talent at the skill positions. Hell, I’ll even settle for high variance players who will occasionally screw up, but raise the ceiling of the offense by just being on the field. I think Claypool and Kmet are those players, Lenzy could be, but anyone else? This team desperately needs playmakers and it begins at the QB position.
Let’s engage in a hypothetical purely for discussion’s sake. If you were Notre Dame’s athletic director and decided to fire Brian Kelly, which candidates would be on your short list to fill the job opening? Mine are as follows:
– Matt Rhule, Baylor head coach
– PJ Fleck, Minnesota head coach
– Bob Stoops, Dallas Renegades (XFL) head coach/former Oklahoma head coach
– Scott Satterfield, Louisville head coach
– John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens head coach
I didn’t include Urban Meyer on this list because it’s my belief neither he nor Notre Dame would consider each other.
While I like John Harbaugh, I think the adjustment to college from the pros is too difficult.
I would be surprised if Stoops coaches again. I agree with you on Meyer, and all the rumors are that IF he coaches again, he will take the USC job.
I like Satterfield a lot, he is doing well at Louisville. I want to see more in a Power 5 conference though.
Only name I would add is Matt Campbell at Iowa State.
John Harbaugh is not leaving Lamar Jackson to coach in college. While he might be at the top of the list of potential successors now or in a year or two, that will be a 3 minute “thanks but no thanks” conversation.
I think Rhule will be Penn State’s coach this time next year (I am assuming James Franklin leaves for USC).
Ultimately, if ND were engaged in a coaching search this offseason, the three options would likely be: (1) Fleck; (2) Matt Campbell; (3) Clark Lea. The latter is certainly not worth firing Brian Kelly for. Unless Fleck wins the Big Ten this year, I wouldn’t say the other two are clearly better either – but if he does win the Big Ten, they had better go get him, particularly if we lose another game this year.
Brent Venables
Dave Aranda.
Major Applewhite (if we’re looking for a super up and coming coach)
Mike Yurcich
Eric Bienemy
I like Rhule a lot, and what he’s doing at Baylor (and what he did do at Temple) is darn close to a miracle. It would be nice to see him actually beat a really good team at some point, but he’s a guy to watch for sure. Fleck is interesting but also has not actually beaten anyone who’s very good yet. I’m also not sure how his Row the Boat act would play in South Bend. Satterfield is Doing Good Things (TM) at Louisville but hasn’t even been there a year yet. Another guy to watch is Chris Klieman at K-State, but he too has been on the job less than a year.
I think everything people have said is accurate, even the points that contradict each other. That is what makes this hard. I have a few thoughts. 1. Book has reached his ceiling. In fairness to him, I think he has shown a ceiling much higher than any of us had a right to expect when he signed his LOI, but his ceiling is there. The fact that he doesn’t throw on timing, does not look at secondary receivers, never steps up in the pocket, etc, is just who he is. Given the one thing Rees was good at was stepping up in the pocket, I imagine he could teach that. He locks into his primary receiver and moves the safety toward the receiver rather than away. 2. I don’t buy into the whole Kelly-QB regression theory. Golson, Zaire, Hendrix and Wimbush all left and went elsewhere, plus the kid that went to Kansas. None of them made any serious impression at their landing spot, perhaps Hendrix at Miami. This would indicate it was the player not the coaching. At some point, the players have to execute. 3. Kelly does well against the teams below the very good on the schedule. Fortunately, that gets you to 8 or 9 wins a year. This year, since USC is down, it should get us to 10. The offense that he brought, and the offense that Chip Long now runs were incubated in lesser conferences. Those teams do not have the athletes that a Michigan, Miami, USC or Clemson have. The short passing game won’t work consistently with the speed and coaching that very good and above teams have. They need to be made to defend the entire field. While the rain and wind was a factor in Saturday’s game, we would have faced the same defense. Shrink the field, blitz, force quick throws and blanket Claypool or Kmet to take away Book’s primary target. It might have been a closer game in better weather, but I think the outcome would have been the same. Brown ran that exact same defense against us in Fenway Park a few years ago. He had much lesser athletes and he nearly beat us with it. BC having no offense is what saved us that night. 4. The one sane comment on NDNation was the column from Geetar this weekend. It is the same point raised by a lot of people above. Can Kelly get us over the hump? Where we can consistently play with the ‘big boys’. Our problem is that when we play the big boys, the likely outcome ranges from close win to blow-out loss. That is not acceptable. The outcomes should range from close win to close loss. I can accept losing to Georgia the way we did, or losing close to Michigan. I can’t accept the blow-outs, and those are the modus operandi for Kelly. If we played the Michigan game again, 10 times in the same weather conditions, does anyone think any… Read more »
To be fair on point 2, it’s hard for those players to go to a new program, learn a new offense, unlearn whatever issues Kelly instilled in them AND be good players in basically 1 or MAYBE 2 years.
This game turned on 3 things IMO: 1. Michigan ran pretty much at will when it counted, which was most of the game. With 300+ yards rushing, and 3/4 of their runs successful, they didn’t have to pass. 2. Notre Dame couldn’t run at all–much of our paltry final rushing total (50 yards or so?) came in garbage time. Thus ND HAD to pass. 3. The game was played in a driving rainstorm, which made passing a huge challenge. I wonder about a couple things: 1. If we could have played run defense as well as they did (why didn’t we, doggone it), what would the score have been? What if Michigan had to rely on the pass like we did? Patterson also wasn’t having any passing success in the few times he threw–one completion in the first half and three total through the third quarter. Probably would have been a low scoring game that could have been won by either side. 2. Book looked bad, but I wonder how would Tua have looked with absolutely no run game, with our receivers, our play calls, behind our line, in a driving rainstorm against what turned out to be a very fast UM defense, particularly that middle linebacker? Not Heisman-like, I think. I think we’d still lose without being able to run at all. Regarding the coaching situation, I think this is as good as we get. Getting occasionally into the playoffs (in the 4 team format) but getting beaten there, usually badly. Unless/until we can repeatedly recruit the full suite of gamebreaker offensive skill positions (QB, Receiver, RB), so they are all on the field at the same time, we will not be in the elite tier of football programs and will not beat them. It would be extra nice if we didn’t get blown up by them, but I don’t see us beating them. I do not believe we can recruit those guys, for many reasons. Thus Kelly may be doing as well as an ND coach can do in today’s CFB, and I don’t particularly like him, so I’m not defending him. I’m indifferent to whether he stays or not. When was the last time we had a bona fide Heisman QB candidate, coupled with elite receivers and a powerhouse running back–make that a stable of running backs?? Look at OSU, Bama, Clemson, LSU, with Georgia and Oklahoma a bit behind that. We aren’t in that category, haven’t been since Lou’s heyday. I’m 75. I’m willing to wager that ND doesn’t win another NC in my lifetime. Give me $1,000 now and I’ll put $5,000 in an interest bearing escrow account at the institution of your choice. If ND wins it all while I’m alive, you keep the money, all of it. If I die first, my heirs get that money back. Its not a bad deal for you if you believe its just a matter of a better coach. That will give you a surprising number of… Read more »
Hit “Read more” and the paragraph breaks will show in my post above.
“So, who is convinced we win another NC, just need to get the right coach?”
Yea, not me. I mean I think we could – but I also think Kelly “could” if everything fell just right for one year (with a QB, recruiting, coordinators, injuries, suspensions, etc.)
If I had a stack I’d take you up on this bet. Honestly, I’m not convinced Kelly can’t win a championship here, but I think it will be an outlier more than a coaching revelation. It honestly doesn’t take much more than we have now to win a championship. All we’re missing on D is a TRULY elite pass rusher. One who’s more substance than hype. On offense we need an elite QB. I had this big drawn out paragraph written out going into what else we need at WR, OL etc. and what REALLY stands out to me watching the elite teams…..SPEED. SPEED all over the field. WR, RB, QB, DE, LB and we just don’t have enough of it. Speed puts pressure on everyone to make the play immediately before the other player blows by you. We need more elite speed.
ND has speed (think Lenzy isn’t fast?) they just don’t use it. They don’t go down field enough and stretch it out vertically. It was easy for Michigan to pin their ears back, stack the box and fly to the ball before ND could get the corner because they knew ND was trying to get horizontal to space and has no vertical threats.
Watch Bama and Tua is chucking it 30 yards through the air. Ditto Clemson and they’re not even playing well. LSU, Texas all destroying defenses by going deep. The only elite team that really doesn’t live off a vertical passing game right now is Ohio State, and it doesn’t really matter because their RB is a beast.
Long way of saying, you’re probably right ND needs more skill players who are faster (won’t argue that) but really the bigger issue to me is scheme that they’re not getting their guys into space and don’t have a QB who can reliably deliver the ball. Drop Joe Burrow in this offense and I bet you it’s an elite offense with even the weapons they have. Assuming they let him throw down the field and not a 2 yard route in the flat to a RB on 4th and 4.
Just to add to this, Tua is, on average, throwing the ball 5 yards further downfield in the air than Book is. 5 Yards per attempt!!! That’s crazy. While I don’t think that would have mattered in the weather against Michigan, there’s no way you’re consistently going to beat “elite” teams without stretching the field.
Actually a lot of Tua’s passes are 5-7 yards and his fleet of receivers get unbelievable YAC. Each of them can take it to the house on a short slant. Fuller was the last guy we had who could do that.
Actually, I’m literally referencing the fact that, on average, he’s throwing the ball 5 yards further downfield in the air than Book is. It’s a stat, Air Yards Per Attempt (how far the ball travels in the air past the line of scrimmage).
Tua: 13.5 Air Yards Per Attempt
Book: 8.7 Air Yards Per Attempt
Why are your comments and mine mutually exclusive?
Yeah, part of the long drawn out reply I originally typed went into getting a QB who can throw deep. Yes we have speed, but we need MORE. Lenzy is fast. Who else? GIVE ME MORE SPEEEEEED!!
Is it the QB or the coach? Seems we’ve had other QB’s that would throw it deep under Kelly. Is that because those QB’s (Kiser) had better WR’s (Fuller) ? I suppose it’s all related but, I think the QB is a big part of the problem this year.
Don’t disagree at all there. Like most things in life it’s probably a combo of many factors. I don’t think the scheme, or at least the plays they typically call are conducive to going vertical enough. But there’s also no doubt Book doesn’t have a strong arm and isn’t really the “riverboat gambler” type to sling it a lot.
Like, I mean, they had that one deep crossing route to Claypool (that went right through his hands) but other than that pretty much nothing to him all game that wasn’t little fade/back shoulder stuff up the sideline or very shallow crossing routes 3 yards away from the LOS. Not very imaginative compared to like the Bama/Oklahoma route trees where their WR are all over the field and liable to catch the ball 20-30+ yards away. That would be shocking to see ND do this year.
It’s the QB — no doubt about it. Lenzy could easily run a deep route and beat his man. Claypool can run deep and, if he happens to not beat his man, he can out jump him. Heck, McKinley can run deep with a back shoulder throw. ND has gone deep in the past, but the evidence over the past year and a half is clear, it is the QB
I don’t believe Ian Book’s arm strength, or lack thereof, is even worth discussing due to his unwillingness or inability to go through his progressions or step up in the pocket. If Book’s first option isn’t open on a designed pass play, he brings his eyes down and searches for an escape route out of the pocket. The best quarterbacks in college football have an ability to scan the field if the first read isn’t there and quickly make a decision on whether to dump the ball to his check-down or take off for a few yards to avoid a sack. Unfortunately, Book will never be that type of quarterback.
On the II podcast Monday, a question from a fan was along the lines of “do you now agree that QB’s regress under Brian Kelly in their 2nd year?”. They answered “yes” and then moved on. There is no question that Book has.
I’d agree, but so has the oline and Fink, RB position, Gilman, the non Claypool WR spot, regardless of who’s playing it.
We focus on the qb, but Book has lots of company.
Hi from France, all. This one truly hurts. But like kiwifan and Cubsfan, sharing such a long perspective, I have other deep hurts to measure it against. The danger for me is losing those who count:
(1) the team (remember Lou Holtz talking very emphatically about the danger therein;
(2) losing some of you, the true fans.
So:
— we’ll see about the team. BK is right, it was extremely uncharacteristic of what we thought we saw from this group, vs Georgia and USC. So, though I am very far from being a conspiracy theory kind of person, I have to wonder, is something going on with the team that has not come out? They genuinely played… distracted?
— as for you on this site– heck, we should hang on. We should stay invested. It should still and always REALLY REALLY SUCK to lose an awful game like that. Don’t be go getting apathetic on me there!
Before I forget, Michael Bryan, your comments on your advanced stats piece were extremely insightful, thanks!