When you think back to weird games from 2016 nothing can top the circus that was the NC State game. However, don’t sleep on the Michigan State game and its ridiculousness. Case in point, the Spartans raced out to a 36-7 lead. A 3-9 team was beating the Irish by 29 points! A switch was flicked on late in the 3rd quarter that led to 3 straight touchdowns for Notre Dame but the comeback ultimately fell short.

Notre Dame (-3.5) at Michigan State

Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, Michigan
Date: Saturday, September 23, 2017
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Television: Fox
Series: 48-29-1 Notre Dame

Due to Notre Dame’s scheduling quirks of easing off the Big Ten portion of their schedule this will be the first visit to East Lansing since 2012 when the defense dominated, Cierre Wood galloped, and Golson worked some magic. That feels like a really long time ago now.

3 Matchups to Watch

Notre Dame’s Run Game vs. Michgan State’s Linebackers

The Irish have to like their chances against State’s defensive line, which while typically stout and occasionally disruptive, is perhaps the weakest of the Dantonio era on paper. To put it simply, it features a true freshman and two former walk-ons in the starting lineup.

The Spartans line is going to have to hold serve against the Irish ground game and allow their trio of good linebackers to clean up the ball carrier near the line of scrimmage. Dantonio probably likes the history in the series holding Notre Dame to rushing totals of 57, 82, 122, 114, and 92 yards since Brian Kelly came to South Bend. You can bet Dantonio will be in full “prove it” mode to Wimbush and his passing skills.

LJ Scott vs. Notre Dame’s Defensive Line

There were so many question marks surrounding MSU coming into the year and the competition against two MAC teams still leaves many remaining. So far, the Spartans have been perfectly okay on offense and over 500 yards through 2 games on the ground.

However, many expect tailback LJ Scott to be their top offensive player and he’s been limited to just 125 yards on 33 carries. Is this a case of playing down to competition? Or a continuation of last year’s struggles (55th in S&P+ rushing in 2016) while breaking in 4 new full-time offensive linemen?

Brandon Wimbush vs. Michigan State’s Corners

The struggles of Brandon Wimbush in the pass game have been the hot topic this week and if you’re impressed by a defense dominating weaker opponents than the Spartans pass defense is for you! They come into the weekend 3rd in yards per attempt, 8th in yards per game, and have not surrendered a touchdown through the air.

In fact, the MSU defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet. Their opponent’s 3 touchdowns came through fumble returns (2) and a kickoff return.

The door would be appear open to make some plays against Michigan State’s corners, though. Among their favored top 3 you have Josh Butler (redhisrt sophomore) who was a special teams player last year, true freshman Josiah Scott, and true sophomore Justin Layne. There should be opportunities to move the ball.

2 Stats to Consider

3.45 YPP

There’s a common theme here and it’s that Michigan State’s traditional defensive stats are outstanding through 2 easy games but it’s difficult to know how much to trust what we’ve seen so far. They’re giving up only 3.45 yards per play which is 4th best in the country so far.

The Spartans are breaking in 8 new starters on defense and have had their roster ravaged by a terrible off-season. You get the feeling we’re going to see Dantonio’s best defensive coaching effort of his career or MSU is probably a lot more average on this side of the ball than they’ve let on through 2 games.

3-10

Last week’s win in Chestnut Hill broke a 4-game true road game losing streak for Notre Dame. Stretching back to the middle of 2014 the Irish are an abysmal 3-10 in true road games. This can’t make any Irish fan feel that great about invading East Lansing on Saturday. Playing on the road has been a huge struggle for Kelly teams since 2013 began.

It’s pretty crazy when you consider that in the big picture Michigan State has been the better program, they’re coming off a win in South Bend last year, and they are still home dogs to the Irish. Are we seeing Vegas being sly like a fox or deeply fooled?

1 Prediction

The more we inch closer to this game the more I think it’ll have massive implications for 2017 and the future of the program. This is a game that simply cannot be lost and I’d feel that way even if the Irish were 3-0. On the national scene this isn’t a huge game (big enough for a night game, though) but for Notre Dame it will be a game against a rival when any losses could potentially be devastating to the culture inside the Gug. Suffering a defeat at the hands of Dantonio again and as the favorite for me is a sneaky big deal with other “bigger” games remaining on the schedule. Can this program deal with 2 losses in September after a 4-8 season last fall?

The Georgia game didn’t feel like do or die yet but this MSU game is really, really close to that territory. A tricky road game in Chapel Hill awaits and USC is right around the corner. Three losses before November and well…you get the point.

Although we’ve arrived here in numerous different routes I’m getting a lot of vibes similar to the lead up to the 2011 game against Michigan State. The Irish came in desperate underdogs against a highly ranked Spartan team and won in fairly convincing fashion.

An X-factor for Saturday is quarterback Brian Lewerke. The redshirt sophomore from Arizona was a 3-star recruit coming out of high school, played sparingly in 2016, but did make a couple of starts last fall to get his feet wet. It’s still early to tell how polished he is as a passer with only 111 career attempts–although State literally breaking in a whole new crew of pass catchers probably won’t help his cause.

No, it’s Lewerke’s ability to scoot that’s cause for concern. Michigan State’s run game was entirely average a year ago and they were able to rush for 260 yards in South Bend. If you adjust for the Mike Elko factor that number should drop below 200 yards, one would hope, however will the Irish be able to prevent Lewerke from scrambling for big gains in key moments?

I’m honestly not too scared of many players on this Michigan State team. There are about 6 to 8 really good players who Notre Dame would love to have but a top 40 from both squads would skew extremely heavily in Notre Dame’s favor. That is to say, the Irish have a sizable talent advantage this Saturday. Michigan State has not recruited nearly well enough to overcome so many personnel losses and if Notre Dame loses it’s going to be huge indictment on the coaching from the sidelines. Kelly would fall to 3-3 against Dantonio with back-to-back losses staining his record.

Nothing about Notre Dame’s recent history suggests the Irish will cover this spread, let alone win the game. If this is another road game loss it shouldn’t shock a soul. But, I think Notre Dame will prove itself to be a better team on Saturday.