As we nestle into the halfway point of the season, we notice that it’s time to revisit our predictions from our staff and reader polls right before the season started. Later in the week we’ll bring you a preview of Notre Dame’s second-half opponents and discuss postseason possibilities.

Big Picture Questions

2019 Record

A whopping 82% of the readers and 80% of the staff thought we’d go 10-2 or better this year. The Irish are 5-1 at the break and the first game of the second half, against Michigan, is likely by far the hardest game left on the schedule. Get past that one, and 10+ wins are virtually assured; SP+’s optimism will approach our voters if that comes to pass, giving us a 65% chance of finishing 10-2 or better. Obviously 11-1 (29% of readers, 20% of staff) is still on the table as well, although, sadly, 12-0 (4% of readers, 15% of staff) is not.

Excelsior!

Biggest Concern

The lead two concerns were the same for you and us – the challenging road slate (30% in both surveys) and the inside linebackers (26% of readers, 20% of staff). At the halfway point, the road slate looks considerably less daunting thanks to pock-marked first halves from Michigan and Stanford, and I think we can fairly say that the inside linebackers are just fine, thank you very much. Most of the other concerns – run game performance, offensive line play, CB2, etc. – have drawn mixed reviews at this point and remain open issues to varying degrees. The Irish may be able to sweep the second half even without solid answers there, but it would be a lot less anxiety-inducing if they figure those out.

Superlatives

Offensive MVP

Ian Book dominated both surveys, polling at 77% with readers and 85% with the staff. I’m… not sure I could pick an offensive MVP at this point, which is kind of odd. Is it Book? He’s been solid, good at times, never really great. Is it Chase Claypool? He’s been arguably the most consistent playmaker, but he’s still not at that Michael Floyd/Tyler Eifert level of dominance. Is it Cole Kmet? His presence completely recalibrated the offense, so you could make a case for it, but he doesn’t lead the team in receptions, yards, or scores. Tony Jones has made a move recently to join this discussion, with his third straight 100 yard game this past weekend. Is it the offensive line, which suddenly looks potentially dominant?

Short version: I don’t know the answer here yet. Stay tuned.

Defensive MVP

This was also dominated similarly in the reader and staff votes – the top two vote-getters in both surveys were Julian Okwara (61%, 60%) and Alohi Gilman (24%, 25%). And, like the offensive MVP, it’s hard for me to pick out who fits the bill here – but unlike the offensive MVP, it’s because several defenders have been awesome. Okwara leads the team in sacks and forced fumbles and is second in TFLs. Gilman leads the team in tackles by a nose over Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who is on pace for just over 60 solo tackles – a mark eclipsed in the Kelly era only by Manti Te’o,  Jaylon Smith, and Te’Von Coney. Asmar Bilal has improved every week and caused all kinds of trouble for USC. Drew White leads the team in TFLs with 7.0 (!). Mega-hyped frosh Kyle Hamilton has been somehow better than advertised, and is already an indispensable part of passing-down packages.

There are worse problems to have.

Play of the Year

Not surprisingly, this was pretty evenly split – 48% of you tabbed the offense, 48% the defense, and 4% special teams. Similarly, the staff voted 50% for defense, 45% for offense, and 5% for special teams. I think this is a bit of a tough call at the moment, but if pressed I would lean towards Braden Lenzy’s electrifying 51-yard reverse against USC. The lead was only 14-3 at that point, but with how the defense was playing in the first half it certainly felt like it put the Irish firmly in control of the game. And obviously it was a huge contributor to the three-point win.

If you weren’t aware, Lenzy is a big Pokémon guy and that’s a reference to Pikachu, the most famous Pokémon. The joys of parenting.

Reception Leader

Claypool leads Kmet 27-21 in total receptions, while Kmet leads Claypool 5.2-4.5 in receptions per game. Both are comfortably ahead of the rest of the squad; lots of football left, but it looks like these two will duke it out for the team lead. Chris Finke has 15 receptions and has frustratingly been nearly a non-factor this year after a breakout 2018, ceding snaps to the emerging Tommy Tremble. Nobody else has double-digit receptions. Claypool dominated both the reader and staff votes, with Finke pulling over 30% in both as well. The 3% of the readers and 5% of the staff who chose ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ may have been more astute than we realized.

Touchdown Leader

Once again you were almost in lockstep with us – Claypool took 49% of the reader vote and 40% of the staff vote, Jafar Armstrong 37% and 35%, Jones took 8% and 15%, and Finke took 5% and 10%. Claypool and Jones are tied for the team lead with four scores apiece, with Kmet, Flemister, McKinley, and Book right behind them with three each. So it’s still a very wide open race at this point, although with the way they’ve played lately you have to like Jones and Kmet’s chances here.

Third-Most RB Carries

This was supposed to be a proxy for who of the neophytes you thought might emerge – Jahmir Smith, C’Bo Flemister, or Kyren Williams. Halfway through the year, Williams is headed for a redshirt while Smith missed time with a sprained toe and Flemister has looked decent but still a bit light. Meanwhile, Armstrong tore an abdominal muscle early against Louisville and has been a non-factor so far, and quarteback-turned-receiver-turned-running-back-turned-defensive-back Avery Davis came to the backfield once more to add depth.

So it’s been a bit of a hectic season for Irish runners, to say the least. The one constant has been, as noted above, Tony Jones, who has developed into a pretty damn solid feature back. Flemister is currently the second-most utilized running back with 24 carries, while Smith has 19. Armstrong should be back in full force for Michigan; judging by usage against USC, it seems Smith is the most likely guy to end up as RB3. But a long way to go yet.

56% of you and 60% of us picked Williams here. Oops.

Second-Most CB Snaps

45% of you and the staff had Donte Vaughn as the second corner, while 31% of you and 25% of the staff picked Shaun Crawford. From there we diverged a bit, as 13% of you took Houston Griffith and 11% took TaRiq Bracy, while 25% of the staff took Bracy and 10% took Griffith. Griffith is now in the two-deep at safety, so he’s out of the picture here. Vaughn never built on a promising fall camp after getting a bit dinged up. Crawford seized a starting role early but, sadly, got hurt again in the Virginia game – for variety’s sake, Fate left his lower body intact and dislocated his elbow this time. Kelly expects him back for Michigan, but who knows how much he’ll have left this year. Bracy is the revelation that has stepped up in Crawford’s absence, and by the end of the year could be that #2 corner. Or maybe Crawford can stay healthy and grab his role back. As with so many other of these questions, it’s still too early to make a call here.

Most Impactful Frosh

I was going to write “Kyle Hamilton in a walkover,” and while I would still tab Kyle Hamilton, I think we should all step back and appreciate what true freshman punter Jay Bramblett has done. Bramblett replaced four-year starter Tyler Newsome with no discernible difference. He has flipped the field at some critical junctures (the best example of which we’ll touch on below) and had been extremely steady overall. Plus he reportedly hits a bit of a knuckleball that’s extremely difficult to catch, which is part of why Georgia muffed a punt that led to an Irish score. He’s been huge.

But yeah, I’m still picking Hamilton here. He’s a freshman and offensive coordinators need to account for him already. 95% of you chose Hamilton and 5% chose the refreshingly honest admission that they hadn’t kept up with fall camp reports, while 100% of the staff picked Hamilton.

Over/Under Lines

4.5 Wins in the First 6 Games

92% of you and 95% of the staff took the over here, despite the fact that pretty much everyone assumed the Georgia game would be a loss. The Irish did not let you down as they took care of business against everyone else, in occasionally frustrating fashion and occasionally thunderous fashion.

4.5 Wins in the Last 6 Games

82% of you and 89% of the staff took the over on the second half; presumably the somewhat lower confidence comes thanks to road dates at Michigan and Stanford. I’m willing to bet that if we held this vote again the number would be a touch higher, but probably not by much. Michigan has looked mostly like hot garbage, and Stanford has looked even more like hot garbage; in fact, I think we’ve moved to a point where 10-2 would be a disappointment. Heady times indeed.

32 Team Sacks
75 Tackles For Loss
10 Interceptions Gained

85% of you took the over on sacks, 64% took the over on TFLs, and and 64% took the over on interceptions; in the staff vote, it was 95% over, 50% over, and 70% over, respectively.

These were all very slightly conservative based on last year’s performance; the lines essentially served as a proxy for whether you thought this year’s defense would be as disruptive as last year’s. If you said yes, congrats. The Irish are on pace to beat all three marks; if current production holds over the second half and in a bowl game, the defense will finish with about 39 sacks, 115 TFLs, and 13 INTs. The sacks and TFLs would be the most of the Kelly era, the TFLs by an almost unbelievable over the previous high of 84 in 2015. Wow.

1.5 Non-Offense TDs

83% of you and 84% of the staff took the over here, and you were pretty damn smart because it hit after four games. Hamilton, because of course he did, returned his first career interception for a score against New Mexico, and Ade Ogundeji did the same with his first career fumble recovery against Virginia. Michael Young would’ve added a third on a kick return against USC had he not carried the ball like a bag of milk (credit to Larz for that Canuckian expression). I was very highly skeptical that we would hit this number given that the only two guys who have scored non-offense TDs since 2016 aren’t here anymore (Julian Love and CJ Sanders). Welp… I took a bath on this one. Lesson learned for next year.

Long Field Goal of 44.5 Yards

35% of you and 55% of the staff took the over. Jon Doerer laughs at all of us. He topped this mark with a 45-yarder on the last meaningful play of the first half against USC, then followed it with a booming 52-yarder – it had at least five more yards on it and was right down the middle – to cap off the first drive of the second half. Doerer has quietly become one of the best stories of the 2019 edition of the Irish; his kickoffs have been excellent, he’s 6/7 on field goals and 27/27 on extra points, and he just hit Notre Dame’s longest field goal since Justin Yoon’s career-long 52-yarder in 2015. Doerer has gone from inspiring fan thoughts of “please don’t let us need a kick to win a game” to getting the game ball against USC. Good on ya, kid.

Long Punt of 54.5 Yards

This one is my revenge for the non-offense TD question… 66% of you and 55% of the staff took the under, and Jay Bramblett beat it in game three when he uncorked a 58 yarder in Athens – with no return! The ball was snapped at the Notre Dame 24 and downed at the Georgia 18. That, folks, is what we call “flipping the field.” Notre Dame has youth at both specialist positions, and both fresh-faced youngsters are killing it.

3.5 Kickoff Returns Past Own 40

Lawrence Keys opened the New Mexico game by returning the kickoff to midfield and Young, as noted, would’ve taken one 100 yards, so there’s still a shot at this one. But the 76% of you and the 90% of the staff who took the under here have to feel pretty good right now.

5.5 Punt Returns of 10+ Yards

Blah…

10.5 Possessions Versus Navy

71% of you and 85% of the staff took the over. TBD.

3,500 Passing Yards by Ian Book

57% of you and 65% of the staff to the over here, and unfortunately, it’s probably not going to happen. Book is on pace for “just” 3,075 yards this season, as a combination of his own issues and more reliance on the run game than we expected has held the number down.

800 total yards by Jafar Armstrong

67% of you and 90% of the staff took the over, and barring a Herculean effort by Armstrong in the second half it looks like we’re all losing money here. Had he stayed healthy I think he would’ve cleared this, but we’ll probably never know.

70 Receptions by Chase Claypool

This seemed like a solid bet for a guy who had 50 receptions last year and was poised to become the focal point of the offense, as 53% of you and 55% us thought preseason. That hasn’t really happened so far at least, as Book has been inconsistent and Kmet has emerged as a favorite target. With 27 receptions at the halfway point, Claypool seems more likely to repeat last year’s numbers than build on them.

60 Receptions by Chris Finke

63% of readers and a whopping 70% of the staff were overly optimistic on Finke, who realistically has no shot of hitting this mark. His 15 receptions barely put him on pace to make it halfway to this line after the bowl game, in fact. The disappearance of Finke has been one of the more puzzling developments of the season; on a positive note, with Young back in the lineup and Finke sliding back to his natural slot position, he had his best game of the season against USC. So perhaps his trend line will point up soon as he gets more comfortable.

40 Receptions by Running Backs

With 16 RB receptions through six games and Armstrong about to rejoin the rotation, it feels like this still in play. 85% of you and 90% of the staff took the over, so let’s hope.

13.5 Sacks by Julian Okwara

Umm… Not looking good. With 5.0 sacks through 6 games, Okwara is on pace for just under 11 on the season. The presence of Navy on the second half of the schedule probably means he’ll effectively have 6 games left to those other 9 sacks, which doesn’t seem likely. His stated goal of 18.5 is almost entirely out of the question, unless he morphs into Reggie White. Which, hey, I’d take that.

13.5 Havoc Plays Generated by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

44% of you and 40% of the staff took the over. Note that, as noted in the original survey, I expanded the official SP+ definition of “havoc plays” to include QB pressures in addition to the standard TFLs, forced fumbles, and passes defensed (INTs + PBUs). The Elko/Lea average for the rover position from their 2009 season in Bowling Green through last season is 12.2 such plays per year; with 7.5 through 6 games, Wu seems to be in good position to pass this mark. If you’re curious, the breakdown is 1 pressure, 5.5 TFLs, and 1 forced fumble.

1.5 Interceptions by Kyle Hamilton

59% of you and 70% of the staff took the over, which was a smart call as once again this line has already been toppled – Hamilton got his second pick of the year in game four, against Virginia. Have we mentioned that he’s been better than advertised?

3.5 Single-Score Margin Games

65% of you and 68% of us took the over here. With two such games through the first half of the season – a six-point loss to Georgia and a three-point win over USC – you might think this line is in good shape. However, given the relative softness of the schedule post-Michigan, it would be a bit of a shock if the Irish enter bowl season without this line still being in play.

2.5 Meaningful Appearances by Phil Jurkovec

83% of you and 75% of the staff took the under, which looks like a smart play now. Book has only ceded to Jurkovec when the game is out of hand; there’s no offensive package for PJ and, thankfully, Book hasn’t had to come out for injury. Hopefully the second half will be more of the same.

3.5 Games Played by Kevin Austin

82% of you and 50% of the staff took the over here, days before unofficial word of a season-long suspension came out. Rumors persist that he may return, but suffice it to say that the 18S staff would be extremely surprised if he returns this year. And even more surprised if he’s not back competing in the spring.

3.5 Penalties for Kickoffs Out of Bounds

Doerer’s 2018 bugaboo has been virtually non-existent, with a single flag drawn against New Mexico. Otherwise his kickoffs have ranged from solid to excellent, with a refreshing number buried in the end zone. 59% of you took the over, while the staff was a bit more bullish on Doerer (or assumed he would have a quicker hook) as just 44% took the over.

∞ Times Irish Fans Will Mutter “Shut up, Doug”

82% of readers and 95% of staff made the mathematically impossible choice here, which is always the way to go when talking about Flutie. Well done, folks.

0.5 Viral Memes Featuring Brian Kelly

73% of you and 70% of the staff took the over, no doubt hoping for a sequel to BK Homeboy. No such meme-able moment has presented itself, but there’s still time!

Prop Bets

Notre Dame will have a 1,000 yard rusher in 2019.

84% of readers and 80% of the staff said no. And you know what? Tony Jones is on pace for just over 1,200 yards on the year. That’s arguably the most surprising development on offense this year. Very much in play.

Notre Dame will have a 1,000 yard receiver in 2019.

Claypool leads the team with 394 yards and is on pace for 856. There’s still a chance for this one, although it might get harder to hit as Cole Kmet continues to emerge. So hope springs eternal for the 74% of readers and 80% of staff who answered affirmatively to this one.

The Notre Dame defense will record its first shutout since September 6, 2014.

61% of you and 70% of the staff said the #RememberTheSix shutout of Michigan would remain the last shutout the Irish defense produced. They fittingly earned another one this year in the return of that 2014 team’s defensive coordinator, the magnificently mustachioed Uncle Rico Brian VanGorder, to campus. Clubbing baby seals and all, but a shutout is a shutout, and this line hti.

Jon Doerer will be less accurate than Justin Yoon but top Yoon’s career long.

So far this is wrong and wrong – Yoon hit 80.8% of his career kicks while Doerer has hit 85.7% this year, and Doerer has matched Yoon’s career long of 52 but hasn’t topped it. Congrats on the backdoor cover (to date) for the 77% of you and 80% of the staff who almost certainly didn’t expect this one to work out the way it has (to date).

Notre Dame will have a top 20 S&P+ offense and defense.

This might come as a surprise to those of you who, you know, have actually watched the games, but SP+ is waaaaay more impressed by Notre Dame’s offense than its defense. The Irish offense ranks 18th nationally in SP+, while the defense ranks 40th. That seems backwards, right? It’s not just me? I love SP+, so don’t get me wrong here, I’m not bagging on it. There’s just something very odd about how it has evaluated the team this year, as it runs counter to what a lot of human evaluations would tell you. Anyway, 55% of you and 75% of the staff thought this would pan out. There’s still time for the defense to climb up there, but the clock is ticking.

Notre Dame will head to Palo Alto in playoff contention.

57% of you and 50% of the staff believed this would hold true. I’m not sure it will at this point but, if it doesn’t, I don’t think it’ll be through any fault of Notre Dame either. The schedule is so much weaker than anyone expected that the opportunity to land a true marquee win just isn’t there. Would I still be happy with heading into Palo Alto 10-1 and in excellent position to roll into a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Notre Dame’s highest-ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be Michigan/the field.

67% of you and 80% of us took the field, which looks like a decent play at this point. They’re the only remaining ranked team on the schedule now, which complicates things. But it’s entirely possible, perhaps even probable, that Michigan will get shelled by Penn State, lose to Notre Dame, and get shelled by Ohio State. Would 8-4 keep them above, say, a 9-3 Louisville? Or a 9-3 USC? I don’t think so. Stanford has a pretty meh stretch before the finale against Notre Dame and could get rolling even though they’re not very good. Who knows? It’s still relatively open but the field looks like a smart choice nonetheless.