Saddle up for the 93rd meeting between Notre Dame and the United States Naval Academy, a yearly tradition stretching back to the Knute Rockne days in 1927. Have you heard? Navy football is in the midst of a terrific turnaround season following a dismal 3-10 record a year ago.

The Middies enter this weekend ranked in the AP and College Football Polls, have won 5 games in a row, and control their destiny in the AAC where they are tied for their division lead.

#23 Navy (+7) at #16 Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 16, 2019
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC

Skeptics are within their right to raise an eyebrow at a ranked Navy team being that scary in a way another 7-1 Power 5 team might be at this point in the season. Four of those victories have come against SP+ teams ranked 89th or worse, plus the addition of a win over FCS Holy Cross.

However, they did beat SP+ 36th ranked Air Force and 33rd ranked Tulane which is something. Navy’s lone loss came to SP+ 14th ranked Memphis by 12 points on the road in game three of the season. For what it’s worth, Memphis is currently rated higher than Notre Dame by SP+ and the Irish (22nd) currently sit just 2 spots ahead of 24th ranked Navy.

Navy’s Offense

For his first 3 years on campus Malcolm Perry was yanked back and forth between quarterback and slotback in Navy’s triple option offense. Despite back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons as a sophomore and junior he was never fully given the keys to run the Middies offense.

That has changed for 2019.

Perry’s been his usual elusive self already amassing 1,042 rushing yards at 6.6 per rush with 16 touchdowns on the ground. Even scarier, he’s been a very sub-par passer in the past but this season he’s on fire with 722 yards at an absurd 13.6 yards per attempt.

Navy has rediscovered the fullback, as well.

In their shuffling of quarterbacks, and especially in the past with Perry, the fullback would get lost. For example, last year against Notre Dame starting fullback Nelson Smith carried the ball twice. Twice! In comparison, the Midshipmen quarterbacks and top slotback carried the ball for 33 of the 48 rushing plays in San Diego against the Irish.

Now, in 2019 Smith is second on the team in attempts and yards while doubling his carries per game from a year ago. It’s helped boost an offense that struggled to score last year and are now averaging 40.1 points per game, good for 9th best in the country.

Navy’s Defense

Head coach Ken Niumatalolo felt the heat back in December as he fired 4 defensive assistants, while coordinator Dale Pehrson retired following 23 years at Navy and 4 seasons as the DC.

Niumatalolo reached out to Kennesaw State’s Brian Newberry to coordinate Navy’s defense after an impressive run with the Owls that saw them force 56 turnovers over his final 27 games. That penchant for turnovers hasn’t really translated to Navy where they’ve forced 13 through 8 games, about the same as last year.

Scoring is way down, though. Last year, the Middies allowed at least 29 points in 9 out of their 13 games. Thus far, only Memphis (35 points) and Tulane (38 points) have reached that mark while Navy’s average points allowed has plunged 15.4 points to 18.1 per game.

In typical modern Navy fashion, size isn’t much of an issue especially as they’ve transitioned away from a 3-4 to Newberry’s 4-2-5 scheme. They are bringing a large nose guard Jackson Pittman at 6’3″ 300 pounds next to tackle Marcus Edwards at 6’4″ 289 pounds while the inside linebackers weigh 240 and 230 pounds, respectively.

One of the biggest off-season projects was to make the Navy defense more disruptive and that is paying off so far in 2019. Sacks per game have sky-rocketed from 0.77 to 3.0 while tackles for loss has similarly been boosted from 2.85/game to 7.13/game. It’s highly unusual for Navy to be 21st nationally in sacks and 25th nationally in tackles for loss but they are getting it done this year.

This is a big reason why Navy’s defense is averaging 1.65 yards per play less than last year, a terrific turnaround so far.

Prediction

This is the first time in 41 years (and just the second time in 62 years) that both Notre Dame and Navy are ranked at the time of kickoff. The Irish are 6-2-1 all-time when both teams are ranked prior to kickoff and 4-2-1 when Notre Dame is ranked at kickoff and Navy finishes the season ranked by the AP Poll with all those games coming in the 1941 to 1957 window.

So, it’s pretty rare when both Notre Dame and Navy are, at minimum, pretty good at the same time.

For some reason, it feels like this current Navy team isn’t quite as feared as some of their better teams in the past. Should this team finish the season at least 2-2 it would be the 8th time since the Paul Johnson era (beginning 2002) that Navy has won at least 9 games. In those other 7 seasons with at least 9 wins the Middies have beaten Notre Dame 3 times and nearly toppled Notre Dame another time in close a 4-point loss.

I think this one is going to be a struggle.

Ever since the Michigan debacle I’ve had this mentally jotted down as a loss for the Irish. It’s a Navy team back to having a potent offense, with a vastly improved defense (45th in SP+ which has to be up there as the best mark while facing Notre Dame), and they have been an outstanding first half team that lends itself to grabbing a lead and sucking time off the clock. In other words, Notre Dame’s biggest nightmare.

For me, the game should come down to two questions.

1) Can the Irish Contain Malcolm Perry?

Perry is averaging nearly 20 carries per game, 13th most in the country, and obviously the most by a quarterback. In the few games I’ve watched of the Middies he’s been making so much hay by punishing linebackers and safeties for taking bad angles. Other times, he’s just too slippery and elusive to contain on the edge. You think the edge is set and next thing you know, he’s ripped off a 20-yard run with ease.

Normally, it’s so important to get Navy off schedule when they have the ball on offense. This is going to be quite the chess match as the Irish have been very disruptive this year (t-19th nationally in tackles for loss) but really don’t want to leave themselves exposed to a long Perry run–or pass. For what its worth, Perry was hot fire last year running for 133 yards with 8 successful carries.

2) Will Good Ian Book Show Up?

Last year, the Irish offense torched Navy early and often finishing the game with the most total yards (584) and yards per play (7.68) on the season. Book especially was sharp completing his first 9 passes–and 17 of his first 18 passes–on the way to one of his best career performances.

I’m not sure Notre Dame trusts its run game now like it did last year (solid 56% success rate and 254 yards in San Diego) which likely means more pressure on Book to carry the offense against an improved Navy defense. That’s a bit scary when Navy could be the one getting the Irish off schedule and putting Book into a ton of second/third down and long situations.

My head still says things are lining up (just enough overconfidence from the Duke game, D-line injuries finally catching up with the defense, a vastly improved and overlooked Navy team, Middies coming off a bye with a ton of time to scout and prepare, pressure on Book to do so much, generally feeling like this is a 9-3 team) for this to be a loss. My heart says it’s a squeaker in double overtime.

Notre Dame 41

Navy 38