Revenge isn’t the right word for this weekend’s game. Something like atonement is more apropos. Not often would anyone consider running the ball 59.3% of the time to be outrageously stupid but during last year’s (equally) ridiculous hurricane waterworld that criticism was on point.
NC State (+7.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 28, 2017
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 2-0-0 NC State
Now, in come the Wolfpack for their first ever visit to South Bend and this year they are a not-so-surprising 6-1 on the season but as such things go a little more surprising (in a philosophical sense) #14 national ranking. Let’s unpack (get it?) this NC State team and their bid to upset the Fighting Irish.
3 Matchups to Watch
Controlling the Efficiency of Ryan Finley
Prior to last year we were expecting an inexperienced quarterback at NC State but then Boise State transfer Ryan Finley showed up in Raleigh during the off-season. In 2016, he started off pretty strong then had a few mediocre games as the Wolfpack dropped 5 out of their last 8 games.
This season, Finley has been even more efficient spreading the ball around (4 players with 25+ receptions) and he’s both solidly explosive (7.9 YPA, 33rd nationally) and smart with 0 interceptions with his 11 touchdowns.
Slowing Down the Versatile Jaylen Samuels
Due to the weather issues last year we didn’t get to see the talent of Jaylen Samuels–he finished with 1 catch and 16 rushing yards against Notre Dame. It feels like he’s been in college forever and is now finally a senior with 2,363 yards from scrimmage as a hybrid tight end/running back.
This year he’s averaging almost 8 receptions per game and while he’s only carried the ball 31 times for 191 yards almost a quarter of those carries have gone for touchdowns.
Stop Bradley Chubb
I’m sure everyone is well aware of NC State’s best defensive player who decided to return to school and forego the NFL Draft last winter. He was lightly recruited out of Georgia, played special teams as a linebacker in 2014, and has spent the last 3 seasons wreaking havoc on the ACC as a defensive end. His stat line since 2015 is stupid:
163 tackles, 46.5 TFL, 22 sacks, 22 QB hurries, 7 forced fumbles
The Wolfpack don’t have the depth and talent level across the board like Georgia’s defense but Chubb might be the best defender the Irish have faced this year. Or, will face this entire season.
2 Stats to Consider
54.5% Field Goals
Notre Dame’s scorching hot red zone offense could be a huge advantage if the Irish defense can force some field goal attempts in their own territory from NC State. That’s because the Wolfpack placekicking options are a mess right now (and they are below average in red zone touchdowns, too).
Junior Kyle Bambard has been stuck on holding duties after missing 5 out of his 10 kicks in 2016–including 3 against Clemson, the last a potential game-winner. He’s attempted one field goal since October 15, 2016. Redshirt junior Carson Wise hasn’t fared much better. He’s missed a kick in 5 games in 2017 and is only 6 for 11 overall this season.
15 Passes Allowed of 30+ Yards
NC State’s rush defense gets most of the publicity and with good reason. They’re allowing just 3.04 yards per carry (14th nationally) and only 6 touchdowns on the ground. However, they are vulnerable to big plays through the air.
The Wolfpack have allowed 15 pass plays of at least 30 yards which is tied for 3rd worse among Power 5 teams. You get the feeling this will try to be exploited by Wimbush who is finding modest success down field as an improving passer.
1 Prediction
Has NC State looked good this year? Yes, they have. Are they still largely an unproven commodity? Yes, they are. And thus, I tip my hand for my prediction.
From a traditional standpoint they are plenty fine. They dropped their opener in Charlotte against South Carolina despite doubling up the Gamecocks in yardage. In that light, they probably should be undefeated at the moment. Still, they’ve only really dominated one team (FCS Furman) and the history with head coach Dave Doeren isn’t super great.
The Wolfpack are 0-13 against ranked (end of year) teams under Doeren despite picking up at least one ranked win per season in the 4 years leading up to his hire. NC State always seemed like they were at least good for one really surprising win every year and that DNA has disappeared under Doeren.
Perhaps more concerning from a NC State perspective–and this was talked about a lot ahead of last year’s matchup–Doeren has struggled against winning teams. He’s 7-26 against any FBS program that finishes with a winning record and those victories are against UCF, Georgia Southern, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Old Dominion, Marshall, and Louisville.
That’s 3 wins over Power 5 programs with winning records (2017 Louisville qualifying right now at 5-3) over the course of 4.5 years of games. If we switched the names on the teams coming into Saturday’s matchup I’d have no doubt the rest of the country would be seriously distrusting Notre Dame on the road against a Top 10 team. And to be fair, not many people feel real great about NC State’s chances all the same.
On the other hand, the advanced stats shows this is very solidly a Top 20-ish type of team and this is college football a team in that tier can beat anyone not named Alabama.
F/+ 18th
S&P 21st
FEI 16th
S&P Offense 16th
S&P Defense 53rd
FEI Offense 14th
FEI Defense 56th
But wait, their defense isn’t ranked that high! Yes, as Michael showed in his advanced stats preview on Wednesday the Wolfpack are suffering tremendously from terrible competition. That doesn’t mean they still can’t be really good but it is cause for some pause.
Still, NC State looks built to beat this Notre Dame team and I think that’s what has so many worried. They have a really active front seven on defense that’s paired with a mistake-free offense with a smart quarterback and a couple big playmakers. The Wolfpack are also coming off a bye week which should give them a nice boost. Throw in the Irish having a little bit of a hangover from last week’s cathartic win over USC and the pendulum swings back in NC State’s favor.
For me, a really well balanced offensive performance from NC State that pops the Mike Elko honeymoon bubble is my greatest concern. The Wolfpack defense could be stingy at times but despite Wimbush’s lack of passing production I believe the offense is stable enough to “get theirs” to a degree enough to win.
Picking NC State here would be for contrarian purposes only. They are not proven enough, lack the history in big games, lack the recruiting classes to become great, and are facing a huge step up in competition. Notre Dame takes this at home and I think a comfortable win is far more likely than a NC State upset.
- WINNER: Notre Dame 32 NC State 24
- VS. SPREAD (-7.5): Notre Dame
- OVER/UNDER (58): Under
- SPECIAL, ADAMS RUSH YDS (95.5): Over
Wimbush’s passing game has come along way. Seems so far to be a touch late recognizing opportunities. Last week seemed to be a big step forward. Could this be the week ESB and Mack make the highlights?
Really don’t want to lose this, between monsoons and Phil Rivers, I have terrible memories of playing NC State. Also a loss here would make NC State the only team the Irish have never beaten that has beaten them more than 2 times (I’m not counting University of Chicago who we’re 0-4 against, the only thing they would beat ND at these days is number of famous Economists).
ND 27 NC State 17
That over/under seems too high. Not sold on this Wolfpack team, they haven’t played anybody near the level of the Irish yet. 1 win against a team with a winning record and a loss to South Carolina…meh. I think the only way we lose this is if the ground game gets shut down and we are -2 or worse in turnovers.
Eric seems to be allergic to The Over.
And I can’t say I blame him…
I really appreciate this being the only place on the internet that thinks ND *ran* too much last year in the hurricane game (if I’m reading this correctly). I’m not even sure you’re wrong; it’s just very contrarian.
Last week going into the game, I was pretty optimistic because my sense was we matched up pretty well with UNC. I don’t think that’s the case this week. Yes, their competition hasn’t been great, and yes they lost to South Carolina, but that was a much better version of SC than what has since transpired as they have lost a number of their best players, including their best player (Deebo Samuel) to injury in the interim. I think their balance and steady QB, combined with the best non-UGA defensive line we will see, means this will be a one-score game. I think we win a legitimate tight one by 3 or 4 (i.e., not a backdoor cover). If I were a gambling man, I’d take NC State and the points.
It’s not all that clear but, I interpreted it as ND didn’t run the ball enough.
Yeah definitely read that as normally 59% would be perfectly reasonable for running plays, but not in that weather.
I’m happy Long has a few packages under center too. Snapping the ball from shotgun was so treacherous with the conditions that even the formation made a play a higher risk of being a negative one just on the basic stuff. And, true or perception, it just seemed like there was no available adjustment to make the offense simply operated out of the pistol/shotgun at all times.
Has there been research that snapping from under center is safer in terrible conditions. I feel like we talked about this last year.
Perhaps we did, and I’m not sure what the research says. Maybe unpracticed it’s just as bad, who knows. Tough to believe with the day Mustipher was having back then that in those conditions a normal snap would be worse.
As a former center. I would think shotgun would be better in bad conditions. The ball doesn’t hit the QBs hand with nearly as much force. And assuming the center isn’t firing back as fast as in good weather, a bad snap is easier to handle (as long as you are paying attention).
Fair enough, thanks for the perspective. It just sure didn’t feel like a higher percentage back on that dreadful day, but it’s best flushed anyways.
Those were some particularly bad shotgun snaps. Given that Mustipher dealt with shot gun snapping problems in general last season. It may have been a better idea to go under center for that game.
I also only played C through HS, at ND I played guard. There were lots of fumbled snaps in Maine HS FB, probably one a game between the 2 teams. So one nice thing about shotgun is that bad snaps don’t turn into TOs as often because the QB already has a head start tracking it down and the DL (or Juwana Starling) isn’t as close.
It does put you at risk for the classic Manning super bowl oopsie, where if the QB isn’t paying attention, then a bad shotgun snap is much worse. But that isn’t any worse in a hurricane.
I preferred having a QB under center when running the ball, because his hands should ride your ass up and forward as you snap. The C doesn’t snap then go block, the moving to go block and the snap happen at the same time.
I preferred shot gun snaps on passing plays, because you don’t want the QB/center exchange to change and that up and forward motion isn’t great for pass protection.
Probably way more than you wanted to hear.
Nah, not at all, I enjoy the insight, thanks for sharing it. That stuff makes reasonable sense to me, I just wasn’t so certain the quantity of bad snaps under center vs. likelihood of bad snaps in shotgun. You’re right it wasn’t a strong point of Mustipher’s, my point was just more an observation that it was obvious he was struggling and the team had no ability or willingness to cover up that weakness by direct snaps in a darn hurricane conditions to boot.
Didn’t we fumble from under center in the game too? I could be mis-remebering.
It became way more than I wanted to hear when you said “I preferred having a QB under center… because his hands should ride your ass up and forward”.
I like to keep readers on their toes with super unclear writing.
You were not unsuccessful in that.
Or weren’t you?
That is not only not right; it is not even wrong.
-Wolfgang Pauli (we need to recruit an LB named Wolgang)
“That he did surely not.”
-Rich Little’s head imitating Howard Cosell, Raging Bender, Futurama
I’m excluding you from the rest of this conversation.
On principle.
Um I think you mean “on principal” lolwut.
I didn’t misinterpret it at all, because, you know, context.
“…they have lost a number of their best players, including their best player (Deebo Samuel) to injury in the interim…”
So, would you say that “Deebo got knocked the f*** out!”?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSet6htnVcQ
Turnovers are what scares me the most. If we are tied or ahead in turnover margin, I think we will win. If not, it could be tough. I was surprised how many seniors they have on their lines. That, and a 5th year player at QB are the main reasons why they are so good. They are experienced and won’t rattle if things don’t go their way.
From the few clips I have seen, it looks like Chubb plays L DE, which would mean that he will be going against McGlinchey, which should be a great battle. I wonder if they will switch him to the other side so he can go against our freshmen? Do any of the coaches out there have thoughts on what type of plays ND will try in order to defeat this defense?
I dont think we will USC them or even MSU them. I truly believe the Wolfpack are a better team than both of those. ND wins a close one, Low 30s – Mid 20s. Surprise POTG: Stepherson
Hmmm, way too many close predictions. Until we don’t blow out someone not named UGa i’m simply going to have to assume a huge win. 42-16.
We haven’t not blown out anyone not named UGA, so I agree. I think.
Actually with their D-line, I think I have a hard time picking us to score 40. and with their hyper-efficient offense and some pretty decent playmakers, I think they slightly exceed our mandatory Power 5 opponent point total of around 20. So I’ll pick a more comfortable, less-blowout-y 34-24 type win.
…and i’ll just pretend the 6th TD happened since it nearly did three different times.
ND 32 = 5 TD and Yoon misses 3 PA
13 safeties and 2 FGs
“Yoon misses 3 PA”
Man, this fool can kick in a freaking HURRICANE. He wont miss in South Bend!
After Stanford needed a miracle to beat Oregon State last night, Bryce Love may actually deserve the Heisman this year. He clearly is crucial to their team.
Or Chryst may just be the anti-heisman. They were super lucky but you’re right they needed Love.
Don’t we all?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEUX-HYRtUA
Is Andrew Luck the anti-Chryst?
I think if we run the ball 40 times, this is a win, I don’t care if we are getting largely stuffed.I am terrified with their efficient offense they will score a couple times, it will be close or they will be ahead, and we will start chucking the ball like UGA. Wimbush is getting better as a passer but if we aren’t over 60% runs to passes, I don’t think we win.
I think this is the tipping point game between “well, yeah ND killed USC, but USC was hurt and tired and….” vs “ND is for real.” I also think that if we beat NC State they may turn around and beat Clemson, because that would be the most NC State thing ever.
Speaking of most [x] things ever, anyone else see that Stanford game? Star running back out because they over use him as he’s all of their offense? Check! Love was out all game, because just like McCaffrey, they run him to death when he’s in, so he has to take games off. Look like crap on offense without best player? Check! Be gifted a fumble with a minute left to get a go-ahead drive, scoring their only touchdown of the game on that drive? Check! David Shaw being David Shaw by running the SAME PLAY that scored the touchdown on the 2 point conversion play….NOT ONCE….NOT TWICE…BUT THREE TIMES due to pass interference penalties…AND NOT GETTING IT? CHECK!
Regardless of what happens this weekend NC State will have a better chance than “normal” against Clemson next week with the game being at NC State and Clemson coming off of triple-option week against GT.
most importantly
…
Clemsoning is back!
Yeah I agree, KG, David Shaw is a brilliant coach and offensive strategist.
Love,
The national sports media
Cosigned: lookingdeadred
This secondary is going to eat Keller Chryst alive if he keeps staring down underneath receivers like that.
File that under “things I never would have thought before the season”
^ There’s a transubstantiation joke there somewhere, but I’m occupied at work, so I can’t quite perfect it right now.
The thing is, I don’t think Chryst was truly present. Without Love, for God is Love, how could he be?
A+ comment.
The perfect set, and the perfect spike. Bravo, both of you.
Nice to see (I guess) that no one’s mentioned a USC letdown. Hopefully won’t be the case. I’m going with a 31-17 Irish win, see them covering the spread fairly easily at home and with the running game and scrappy defense pulling a few points off the board with turnovers.
I really can’t see a letdown this week. Look at it this way–the team gets beyond hyped for an epic game against their hated rival. They need payback for an all around embarrassment last year. And they get it on the scoreboard. They get payback and embarrass their rival. But it’s just far too easy. The opponent’s O-line is a bunch of wussy turnstiles and the D-line jogs through the game and looks to have showed up for what they thought was going to be something between a pillowfight and a slapfight. Actually they definitely did not even show up for a slap fight. So you get your payback, but it was so easy you really had to expend no hype capital to do it. You’re still hungry to hand out a beatdown to someone that actually seems to care about preventing it. And here you have a non-toothless NC State team to give you the fight you thought SC was going to give you. This week will not be a letdown.
I like this idea of Hype Capital. I feel like it could be used in Madden and other sports video games. I wish it could be used in my everyday life, but sadly I just don’t see much hype in financial software.
^More reason that you need some hype
Yeah Juicebox what is up? You sound Hype Deficient. You don’t need to be a professional athlete to be Hype. Whatever you do, do it well and do it Hype, baller. Come on. Don’t be so glum. You need to invest what you need to invest to get some Hype capital.
Help me, oh hype one. What do I need? A clock necklace?
SO much hype in translating 16th century Japanese documents. I practically have my own promoter.
Actually, the new guy that does Inside the Irish(I havent kept up with that since Keith left) addressed it either today or yesterday. I read the article, at least, today and he had a whole post about it. How this game and NCST compared to ’93 BC.
The conclusion was even though the talent gap is similar, the situations are vastly different. NCST was the victor last year so ND could have revenge on it’s mind. At the very least, they still know the sting from the game last year and wont overlook NCST because they know that they’re capable of beating us. 92 BC, we absolutely smashed them and it set up perfectly for us to overlook them in ’93. NCST is also not a trap team because they’re top 15 whereas 93 BC was, I believe unranked and only slightly above .500.
He compared season schedules. ’93 was very front-loaded, all of the tough games were in the first half culminating with #1 FSU. He argued that 93 the team could have thought everything tough was behind them and could relax and thats when BC came to bite them. This year is the complete opposite. We’ve been able to somewhat cruise control up to this point but now the real rubber meets the road with SERIOUS competition. SC may not even be the best team we face the rest of the year and we should be dialed in.
Finally, he argued that beating FSU and lighting Grace Hall may have led to a sense of accomplishment. “We’ve arrived” could have been a detriment. This year, we havent achieved our ultimate goal and we definitely have more respect to earn. Hopefully that keeps the team hungry and biting the rest of the way.
BC was 9-3 in 1993, finished ranked #13 and were #17 at the time of the upset. It was still a game we had no place losing, but they weren’t terrible that year.
To give credit where due, Lou Somogyi at Blue and Gold had this same analysis (and earlier) in his usual excellent grasp of what I might call pertinent history. I was very much there for ’93, and I can guarantee you that there was a huge capital L Letdown for ND. We had beaten the crap out of BC the year before, like 54-7 or whatever. That played a role. And to give them credit, they were sneaky tough.
Yeah, I don’t think our guys will let down for this one, their attitude seems too well grounded. But I do share all the concerns and worry about NC State’s team matching up well (cue massive anxiety attack, where is CSN when I need him…)
Off topic: Eric was right back before the season, the games need to go to every other week. We just didn’t have enough time this week to savor beating the snot out of So Cal, and getting truly anxious over NC State. But glad Eric does previews and you all respond. Anxiety sharing is better than sitting drinking lots of red wine in a French cafe where no one has a clue…
A few sneaky potential factors too… One is pace. Even though we’ve spent a good portion of our second halves sitting on the ball and NC State has generally had to play a full 60 minutes – Pitt and Louisville were closer games than the final scores – we’ve averaged four more offensive plays per game than they’ve faced. That’s not a lot, I know, but again, that’s with us sitting on it in six of our seven games. Will we be able to take advantage of a potential conditioning difference?
Another is special teams, or more specifically, punt returns. Nyheim Hines is a really scary return man; he runs track too and he’s a hair faster than Troy Pride in all their common events. Kid can fly. Most opponents have managed to keep it away from him, but Pitt didn’t and they paid dearly for it last week with a return TD. Our punt coverage has been respectable, but can they continue that trend against an excellent returner?
And finally, Chubb broke his finger a couple of weeks ago. I doubt it’ll be a serious factor – 98% of Chubb is still better than 100% of maybe anyone in the country – but Pitt was his quietest game of the year, as he was held to just two tackles, and recorded no TFLs for the first time this season. Is it bothering him enough to impact his game?
Oh, and 42-20 ND. Their run defense isn’t as good as their rush-yards ranking and their secondary is suspect. Chubb is great, much better than Howard Landry, but I do think we can scheme to limit his effect on the run game. I also think Wimbush will be able to connect on a couple of long throws early to open things up against a softer secondary than USC’s.
On the other side of the ball, NC State is efficient but they’re not explosive. I’m a little concerned about death by a thousand cuts at the hands of Finley, but given that Elko *wants* to make teams dink and dunk down the field, I like our chances there. I also think we’ll be able to get some pressure with just the DL that will help us disrupt them.
Ultimately, as has been our wont, we’ll wear them down with the run game and pull away in the second half.
Incidentally, Sagarin has us winning 42-25, FEI has it 38-23 ND, and S&P+ has it 36-25 ND. FEI had us beating USC 33-25 and S&P+ had us winning 32-26. Just saying.
CARDINAL….fetch the ZONE READ!!!!
Elko wants to make teams dink and dunk because most can’t. NC State can though. That’s their bag, baby. Current reference there for you.
Their secondary is less good than SC’s on paper, but SC just quit early. But on the other hand we scorched them twice early and that was all we really needed. As you note Chubb had a pretty quiet week last week and NC State hasn’t played anyone great. Is NC State’s offense any better than SC? Their O-line probably is and Finley is playing pretty well.
Overall I think we will have a tougher time hitting 40 against the second best D we’ve faced and holding the second best offense we’ve faced under our average. S&P agrees with me. S&P was wrong last week about MOV, though. Maybe 42-ish to 20-ish or below is in the cards.
What is the accuracy of advanced stat and computer based predictions, both W/L and MOV? Is there a website to look these things up?
To reply to my own question, there is such a website. http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php
Of commonly sited computer polls, Sagarin points based is accurate about 75% of the time, ESPN power rating 74%, Beck-ELO 71%, and Billingsley 73%.
Interestingly, midweek betting line is one of the most accurate predictors out there at 76%.
S&P+ seems not to predict upsets or lopsided wins well at all. For example, tOSU was expected to win a close one vs OU. ND was predicted to beat UGA by 5, and USC was expected to win a close one vs Stanford. It didn’t come close to picking upsets like Syr-Clem or Wazzou-SC
One of the guys at II mentioned in the podcast Donte Vaughn has a neck injury.
Have I been under a rock? When did that happen? I knew he wasnt playing, but just figured it was b/c Love, Watkins, and Crawford have been good.
I was just thinking the other day that, in retrospect, it seems like it would have been good to try to sneak in a redshirt year for Vaughn given how well all the other CBs are playing and that he is a clear 5th guy. Perhaps he can medically redshirt? Or has he played too many games already?
Looks like hes played in 6/7 games. Only has 6 tackles too.
So looks like med-red shirt is out. Kind of confused whats going on there.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21157210/notre-dame-defensive-coordinator-mike-elko-deserves-credit-fighting-irish-turnaround
Thought this was a good read. Definitely increases my appreciation for Elko. Just a hypothetical question. Is it conceivable that ND would look to Elko as the next HC? Obviously more to prove…
Great article. Thanks for sharing.
I’m thinking the run game rolls again. Maybe not for 300 plus yards, but 250ish? I did extensive research, at least half of a 30 minute highlight of the NCSU vs Louisville game. I saw a lot of decent runs from Louisville.
Seriously, I have me real idea why, but I think ND will run the ball well and the D will hold them down in points.
Yeah, we’re gonna stomp em. After watching all those big plays we used to give up I’m supposed to lie awake at night worrying about efficiency? North Carolina State doesn’t have Georgia’s linebackers and against Georgia we thought we could just have Wimbush beat them through the air. We know better. We’re gonna be lighting up big Deon McIntoshes before the end.
Ok, I guess we got Wolfy the wolf or w/e the mascot is logging on to downvote me here.
Just upvoted you. While this does not change that I am worried, like worried vraiment malade — we need more of your strong attitude to reinforce some real grit by the boys because NC State will (as has been said above) have no fear. i am also worried that the crowd will have a letdown (which was absolutely the case in ’93 vs BC, one of the reasons I have been working this crowd dynamic issue for lo almost a quarter of a century). So I am hoping you (as in, all of you!) will be at the game and making… yes… MORE NOISE! Also, this year we have Mike Bonner running the ‘Tron to help us be all we can be.
Go Irish!