Well, they did it again. In many ways not much came together for Stanford in 2016. After carrying so much of the load two falls ago Christian McCaffrey couldn’t do the same in 2016 and missed some time on the field. The Cardinal attempt to break in a new quarterback didn’t do great, either. However, the defense re-grouped from an average 2015 and led another 10-win season in Palo Alto.
Stanford
2016 Record: 10-3
2016 S&P Rank: 23
Offense Returning Production Rank: 38
Defense Returning Production Rank:Â 36
Chryst Almighty
For all of the ink spilled about Stanford’s run-heavy ManBall offense they have, like virtually every team in college football, found success only when the quarterback position is stable and productive. Last year, then redshirt junior Ryan Burns won the job out of fall camp but disappointed immensely. He made it half way through the year before being benched following a 5-point effort and 3 interceptions against Colorado.
Now a rising senior, Keller Chryst took over to start the final 6 games leading Stanford to victories in each contest. He’d be a shoe-in for the starting job if not for an ACL injury suffered in the Sun Bowl. That, and as time has passed everyone hasn’t fallen in love with Chryst and his 133.83 passer rating which was just 6th best in the Pac-12 conference. He was steady and smart but by no means on the track to stardom with just 154.8 passing yards per game over the final 5 regular season starts prior to his bowl game injury.
Of course, the Irish face Stanford in the regular season finale so anything could happen between now and late Novemeber. The reports out of Palo Alto since spring were that Burns re-established himself as a starting candidate while rising redshirt freshman K.J. Costello (No. 3 pro-style QB for 2016) was still a step behind his older teammate.
Additionally, the Cardinal have the nation’s top overall quarterback prospect David Mills coming this summer and it’d be foolish to think he couldn’t make an impact by the latter part of the season.
Life After Christian
Stanford mustered one drive of 50+ yards against Notre Dame last year in a game running back Christian McCaffrey missed due to injury. The Irish still lost. In fact, McCaffrey sat out the bowl game and Stanford won that, as well.
A big difference between Stanford and Notre Dame seems to be that the former have learned how to win when things don’t go their way. Still, losing McCaffrey and his 6,191 all-purpose yards for 2015-16 could potentially be a huge blow to the Cardinal.
If the QB situation works out things should be solid for the offense, and much better than the beginning of last year when they averaged 17 points per game through 7 games. Plenty of bodies return on the offensive line that was not great in power situations but great with being explosive. Plus, a pair of Top 10 overall recruits at tackle are coming in as freshmen to add depth.
The top two pass catchers and tight end return so the only major question (if Chryst doesn’t come back healthy) is depth at running back behind Bryce Love. The rising junior has shown big-play ability (1,005 career rushing yards for 7.12 per carry) but the Cardinal need one or two options to step up in more of a power role.
Back to Basics
Stanford quietly improved their defense last year after a rather large dip in 2015. It was a pretty typical Cardinal defense, solid across the board with the ability to stop the run and use their linebackers to create havoc.
The loss of defensive lineman Solomon Thomas (3rd overall pick to the 49ers) could be a big problem if only because Stanford has really struggled to develop this position and add quality depth. Nevertheless, their 3-4 system has mitigated this weakness for years.
Corner and linebacker will assuredly be the strength’s of this defense. A full 7 out of the top 10 at these positions are back which doesn’t include Alijah Holder who will be returning after missing most of last year and should start at corner.
Summer Spread: Irish Underdogs by 7.5 Points
Notre Dame has lost its last 4 games at Stanford with little reason for this game to have a close line heading into summer camp. The Irish will be facing Miami on the road, coming back to face Navy, and then head out west for this regular season finale. Not a great run-in for an unfriendly place in recent times.
Buy or Sell: Stanford Winning the Pac-12
Instant sell if only because of their schedule with Notre Dame and one of the strongest G5 teams in San Diego State involved to help weaken their chances in league play. Plus, the Pac-12 North is really competitive again and the Cardinal face USC, Utah, and UCLA (the first two on the road) from the South. Stanford was the second-lowest rated 10+ win team last year according to S&P+ and I could see 2017 being a year where they are 8-4 but ranked in the S&P+ Top 20 at years end.
Know a Player: WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside
The 601st overall player in the 2015 class took a redshirt and then moved quickly up the depth chart last year, finishing with 379 yards on 24 catches in Stanford’s anemic passing offense. Fans are looking to him to solidify the outside and help improve the quarterback situation.
Outfitter: Nike
Stanford has long been partnered with Nike and it will remain that way as long as Phil Knight is alive. The Nike owner is a graduate of Stanford’s business school and recently pledged $400 million to scholars at the school. That’s in addition to millions more Knight has given to Stanford in the past.
Most Important Game: Washington
Most prognosticators have the Huskies as a mild-to-strong favorite in the Pac-12 North and in the conversation to repeat as league champions. This will be a late season showdown for Stanford sandwiched in between a road game at Washington State and the rivalry game against California.
It’s incredible that they’re returning that much production on both sides of the ball despite losing McCaffrey and Thomas. I’ll never like David Shaw, but man he’s got that program in such a strong position.
Maybe we should copy what they’re doing and, you know, run a 3-4 and mostly run the ball. It’s almost like that would play to our relative strength based on academic profile and geography.
I know that sounds NDNation-y, but, like, they’re not wrong.
Is the desire to run a 3-4 to emulate Stanford…a thing?
I’m not sure it should be. Given ND’s disadvantages to attract stout NT’s and elite edge rushers, which are the primary keys to make that scheme work, I’m about “3-4’ed” out for a while. Philosophically I think the 4-2-5 makes sense for a base defense in the modern game.
I would agree though with the sentiment that perhaps ND can at least study how Stanford has built themselves in the past few years and perhaps try to emulate some factors, but I don’t think they need to copy the whole program by rote. And, seemingly, these two programs are recruiting a large portion of the same prospects over recent years, just a lot are choosing to go west, so it’s not like there’s a lot to learn that’s unknown. They’re just getting more of the recruits and than executing better of late.
Agree that, barring another Nix/Tuitt/KLM front with Manti/Jaylon in the back, we probably are going to get better performance from a 4 man front.
Stanford is getting better recruits because they are winning more games. We’re doing phenomenally well in recruiting (exception: safeties/corners) given that our last three seasons have been 8-5, 10-3, and 4-8.
Side note: on a weekly basis, I weep at how good we could have been the last three years if we had just had an average defensive coordinator instead of BVG. But many teams have a sad story like that.
Even D2aco’s BDBBDBD wasn’t actually similar to Stanford’s 3-4. Stanford has been a more 1-Gap D, while the best D we have had was 2-Gap, which requires the Nix/Tuitt/KLMs of the world.
Tim Brown, Rocket, Mike Floyd, Joe Cool, Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen…Seems to me the great ND teams best strategy is to play with great WR and QBs and have stout defenses to back them up. Really, only Jerome Bettis was our unstoppable RB force that I can remember. Let Stanford do its Stanford thing and let’s get back to doing what makes us ND.
Just to pick a nit, which great ND team was it that Jimmy C was on? If I recall correctly, he played 2 seasons and went 6-6 both years.
If we’re picking nits, Jimmy Clausen played 3 years. 1-5 (as starter), 7-6 (if you want to include the bowl win). 6-6. He was, indeed, not on any good teams.
You are incorrect. He played 2 years. 2008, 2009. That is all.
Hmm. On further inspection, you are correct. Thank God that nightmare didn’t actually happen..
Wonder if I can use that reasoning to get Notre Dame to refund my 2007 tuition.
😉 glad you got it, and didn’t think I was just being a jerk
Honestly, I’m embarrassed I didn’t catch on sooner
Was the failure of those teams JC or was it an OL that was a turnstile that got him absolutely killed? Anyway, the point of the comment was to highlight that we focus our attention more towards QB/WR than we do MANBALL type offense. Know who you are and embrace it. I think our troubles with BK have been that we’re trying to be something that we’re really not. Im wondering whether the spread really can work at ND
The problems on those teams are not finite, so no point in trying to list them. JC and his WRs were essentially the only non-problem. Not to say running the ball would have helped there, I was just pointing out that every other player up there was actually on a great ND team. Picking nits is all.
We are of an accord.
While I wasn’t around at the time, my understanding is that Tim Brown and Rocket played on teams that, at their core, were run to pass, which much more describes Stanford’s offense than the Brian Kelly show. Stanford keeps getting quarterbacks because they play a system which still allows QBs to make big throws; in fact, their QB recruiting has been better than ours recently.
And, yes, as per below, Jimmy Clausen wasn’t on any particularly good teams. Nor was Mike Floyd, unless you’re measuring by S&P+, which is only so helpful.
Our relative strength in recruiting seems to be, primarily, (1) offensive line, (2) quarterbacks, (3) linebackers, (4) wideouts… and then, way at the back, pass-rushing weakside defensive ends. We occasionally get big D-Tackles; we almost never get good pass rushing 240 pounders. You do not need a pass-rushing weakside defensive end if you run a 3-4.
Personally, I would have preferred our offense look a little less Stanford-y and a little more current-Michigan-y.
And, of course, having a star receiver works just fine if you run Stanford (or Michigan’s) offense. Our problem is getting 3 good receivers, which we mostly have not had. Our third wide receiver this year is going to be Finke. Not great. At least they claim to be doing more 2 TE stuff going forward, though we’ll see how long that lasts.
I think the main thing we should emulate from them is their non-football player development strategy. Pushing all our guys to finish a degree in 3 to 3.5 years is stupid – there’s enormous pressure on them already just from being athletes and legitimate students, so yeah, let’s make it harder by imposing an artificially compressed timeline to make academic progress. I’m guessing somebody in the administration is enamored of GSR, which gets dinged for having guys go pro without completing their degrees. How many kids would that affect on average, though? Maybe one or two from each recruiting class?
Forget whether we place in the top ten vs. top twenty of some BS, heavily-massaged NCAA stat. Be a leader instead, put the kids on a reasonable track, and say any athlete who completes a normal amount of academic progress in three years is welcome to finish their degree within five years after that at no charge. Or something like that, but don’t play to the statistics – put a meaningful contribution to these kids’ lives first, and the NCAA second.
I don’t care about what style they or anyone else plays on either side of the ball. For as much as the MANBALL offense is admired, Stanford hasn’t played for a national title and Michigan hasn’t finished above 3rd *in their division* under Harbaugh. I forget the exact numbers, but something like 11 of the last 14 national championship game participants have run spread offenses. That doesn’t mean manball inherently sucks, but it’s not inherently awesome either. Player acquisition and development, sound fundamentals, preparation, and game day tactics can make a spread or a pro-style work, a 3-4 or a 4-3 or a 4-2-5 work. Give me coaches and players who know what they’re doing and I’ll be happy.
I don’t disagree that the spread may be the best offense *if you can get players that run the spread well*. I just don’t think we can compete against Ohio State or Florida State or (now running the spread) Alabama for the speed and talent at the RB/slot etc. that is super helpful with the spread – we’re getting Amir Carlysle and CJ Sanders, not Percy Harvin – and we can’t back it up with the defenses they can recruit either. To that end, I think the only way to win that game is not to play and instead do something different.
Also, Harbaugh already has twice as many S&P+ top-5 seasons at Michigan than Brian Kelly does at ND. And S&P+ is probably the most favorable metric available to judge Kelly’s ND tenure.
I guess my attitude is do whatever works. As for what that means for defensive formation, I’ll defer to Elko’s judgment until he shows that he isn’t up to the task.