Back in the old days we’d still be another month and a half until National Signing Day but beginning this Wednesday the early signing period opens up for 72 hours. As of this writing all of Notre Dame’s commits are expected to sign with the Irish so effectively the first Wednesday in February will be a mere footnote for recruiting in the coming weeks. Therefore, the home stretching isn’t so much nearing as it is here right now.
Out of Eligibility Following the 2017 Season:
TE Durham Smythe
WR Cam Smith
OL Mike McGlinchey
OL Hunter Bivin
DE Andrew Trumbetti
LB Nyles Morgan
LB Greer Martini
Through the regular season we know the Irish will be losing an All-American tackle, starting tight end, starting linebacker, and an additional two often-used backups. Cam Smith has played a somewhat surprising 204 snaps in just 6 games but his 8 receptions will hardly be missed.
2018-19 Academic Classes:
20 Verbal Commits
21 Sophomores
22 Juniors
19 Seniors
13 Grad Students (Canteen, Cage included)
95 Scholarships
Since our last update we’ve seen 1 decommit in the 2018 class as running back Markese Stepp left and recently joined the University of Southern California. Added to the class since early October have been corner Joe Wilkins, corner Houston Griffith, corner Tariq Bracy, tight end Tommy Tremble, and safety Paul Moala.
The secondary has been well stocked this winter!
List of Eligible 2018 Grad Students:
Tier 1
OG Quenton Nelson
C Sam Mustipher
OG Alex Bars
S Drue Tranquill
DE Jay Hayes
TE Nic Weishar
DT Jonathan Bonner
CB Nick Watkins
P Tyler Newsome
Quenton Nelson has the chance to be the highest drafted guard in Notre Dame history and of course he’s leaving. By the way, according to my research the previous highest drafted Irish guards were Bill Fischer 10th overall in 1949 and Paul Seiler 12th overall in 1967–the latter 3 picks ahead of Alan Page!
During Notre Dame’s “Echoes” regular season awards show both Drue Tranquill and Nic Weishar went public with their intention of returning for their 5th years. We had Weishar in the Tier II group in our last update, and despite his meager 182 snaps through 12 games, he’s likely an important enough piece for 2018.
If all 8 grad students come back below Nelson’s name the program is currently at 90 scholarships. That’s actually not a terrible place for the time being. We’re at the part of the year where there’s a lot of “the staff would like to take 25” talk but it’ll probably be 23 bodies in reality.
To one degree or another I’ve seen speculation that Bonner, Watkins, and Newsome are candidates to move on to other destinations for their final years but this seems very unlikely to me.
Tier 2
WR Freddy Canteen
DT Daniel Cage
Canteen played 39 snaps in 3 games before going down with his second straight season-ending injury. It’s difficult to understand why the roster would need him back with the top 5 pass catchers potentially returning.
The medical redshirt for Cage was announced on July 20, 2017 but it feels as if it was 3 years ago. We’re still waiting to hear if he’ll come back for 2018, though.
Tier 3
DT Pete Mokwuah
OG Jimmy Byrne
Byrne has played the fewest snaps among non-redshirt offensive linemen this season which says enough. The long-term project that was Mokwuah isn’t likely to pan out. He finishes up his senior regular season with zero snaps and still only 1 career tackle.
The Roster
*Still using 2017 eligibility
QUARTERBACK
Roster (3): Wimbush r-SO, Book r-FR, Davis FR
Commits (1): Jurkovec
RUNNING BACK
Roster (5): Adams JR, Williams JR, Jones r-FR, McIntosh r-FR, Holmes FR
Commits (1): Smith
WIDE RECEIVER
Roster (11): St. Brown JR, Stepherson, SO, Sanders JR, Boykin r-SO, Finke r-SO, Claypool SO, McKinley SO, Young FR, Armstrong FR, Canteen r-JR, Smith r-SR
Commits (2): Austin, Jones
TIGHT END
Roster (5): Smythe r-SR, Mack r-SO, Weishar r-JR, Wright FR, Kmet FR
Commits (2): Takacs, Tremble
OFFENSIVE TACKLES
Roster (6): McGlinchey r-SR, Kraemer r-FR, Eichenberg r-FR, Bivin r-SR, Hainsey FR, Lugg FR
Commits (2): Mabry, Dirksen
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Roster (7): Nelson r-JR, Mustipher r-JR, Bars, JR, Banks FR, Byrne r-JR, Ruhland r-SO, Gibbons, FR
Commits (0)
STRONG-SIDE DEFENSIVE END
Roster (4): J. Hayes r-JR, Trumbetti SR, Kareem SO, Ogundeji r-FR
Commits (0)
WEAK-SIDE DEFENSIVE END
Roster (4): D. Hayes SO, Okwara SO, MacCollister FR, Wardlow FR
Commits (1): Ju. Ademilola
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Roster (10): Cage, SR, Tillery JR, Bonner r-JR, Taylor r-SO, Dew-Treadway r-SO, Mokwuah r-JR, Tiassum r-SO, Ewell FR, Tagovailoa-Amosa FR, Hinish FR
Commits (2): Ja. Ademilola, Franklin
BUCK LINEBACKER
Roster (3): Martini SR, Coney JR, White FR
Commits (1): Oghoufo
MIKE LINEBACKER
Roster (4): N. Morgan SR, Jon. Jones r-FR, Jam. Jones, SO, Adams FR
Commits (2): Bauer, Lamb
ROVER
Roster (4): Tranquill r-JR, Bilal r-SO, D.J. Morgan r-Fr, Owusu-Koramoah FR
Commits (1): Simon
CORNERBACK
Roster (5): Watkins r-JR, Love SO, Crawford r-SO, Pride SO, Vaughn SO
Commits (3): Wilkins, Bracy, Griffith
SAFETY
Roster (7): Coleman JR, Elliott SO, Studstill SO, Robertson FR, Fertitta JR, Genmark Heath FR, Gilman, r-FR
Commits (2): Allen, Moala
SPECIAL TEAMS
Roster (4): Newsome r-JR, Yoon JR, Shannon r-FR, Doerer FR
Commits (0)
Depth & Talent
Good: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Defensive Tackle, Rover, Corner
The formula here is simple, there’s ample bodies at each position and at least one blue-chip freshman coming in for 2018. Arguably, there’s a freshman who could contribute right away (I see you, Phil J.) but in general these are the position groups well stocked for the future.
The one spot that could get bumped down is corner but the presence of Julian Love (garnering some All-American status) keeps them here as does what is turning out to be a very quality freshmen class.
Holding Steady: Tight End, Offensive Tackle, Interior Offensive Linemen, Strong-Side End, Weak-Side End, Buck Linebacker, Safety, Special Teams
Most of these positions are in okay shape but are either lacking ideal numbers (weak-side end) or don’t have an impact freshman coming in (buck linebacker) or the current two-deep still needs a lot of work (safety).
Concerning: Running Back, Mike Linebacker
I’ve mentioned this before on the site but if Adams goes pro as expected I think the situation at running back isn’t great. The potential should keep everyone off the ledge but the raw returning production is pretty low and Dexter Williams is the only highly-rated recruit among the bunch. I really think this group could be surprisingly mediocre in 2018.
Middle linebacker will get awfully interesting this off-season if Te’von Coney either leaves early or stays at the buck spot. We really haven’t seen anyone truly be groomed to take over once Morgan leaves and that could be a potentially major issue for a defense that’s likely headed into an off-season with very few questions overall.
Why do you find it unlikely for Bonner to leave? I thought it was more than a rumor that he said he was ready to graduate and move on from football altogether.
The other thing to address then is the “likely transfer/medical” list since there is going to have to be some attrition where will it likely come from. It’s usually from those who have been in the program long enough to suspect they are really behind and won’t play much but also have at least 3 years of eligibility left (so that if they transfer somewhere they could play at least 2 full years).
Who would be your candidates? I’m thinking: Morgan (D.J.), McKinely (if he thinks he’s not sniffing PT – not sure what has been up with him), Ogundeji, and then low-rated non-contributing frosh always seem to be candidates: Wardlow, MacCollister, and White.
With 7 5th years and Adams leaving early we would be at 88. Apparently they are shooting for 25 with the freshmen class. Let’s say they get 24 – that’s a total of 92 and so we’d need 7 more to move on. I know Kelly has gotten more aggressive with current players in showing how they won’t work out in an effort to encourage them to transfer (or at least that’s my sense) so it seems it’s just a matter of who, not if.
I hadn’t heard anything about Bonner although I did see his mother is sick. That could affect his plans for sure.
Adams and MacCollister are my bets to move on.
This has the relevant quote from his Observer profile – https://247sports.com/college/notre-dame/Article/Jonathan-Bonner-will-not-return-to-Notre-Dame-next-year-110672863
He’s not coming back, or at least would need to change his mind. I think this effectively makes Cage a Tier 1 – if he can play, he will be a take.
Ah well I guess we can scratch him off the list then.
Everything I’ve found on Cage (which admittedly isn’t too much) has pointed to him not returning to the team. Perhaps something changes, but I probably wouldn’t count on him at this point. Agree on the point that he should be a Tier 1 if at all possible, but I’m afraid he’s not really in any tier at all.
Beyond some likely transfers, there’s also one thing that we have in our back pocket: Nicco Fertitta’s dad is a billionaire, so the cost of a scholarship would be a rounding error in annual finances. If they end up at 86 I’m sure they could at least ask for him to take one for the team (which would probably just mean that instead of donating that money, he pays tuition).
It’ll be interesting to see the potential medical hardships (staying but no longer playing), transfers, and 5th years that aren’t invited back.
Listening to the II podcast, keep an eye on Mack’s contributions in the bowl game.
Did Prister intimate he’s possibly having academic issues again?
They all led me to believe that there’s a reason he got so little PT vs. Stanford. O’Malley in his column (free) inferred Mack’s bowl PT could be telling.
Great analysis. Only quibble is I’d put safety at “concerning” and QB at “holding steady”, but perhaps I am giving too much weight to the 2018 season and you’re talking about as a program. Those positions are going to be super weighted towards youth next year, as I don’t think we’ll have anybody on the roster other than *maybe* Gilman (but probably not) who will be good or better (i.e., 65th+ percentile for Power 5 at their position) in 2018. If we have a good season next year, it will almost certainly be despite our QB and safety play.
That’s fair. With safety I think it’s a low bar but we’ve stabilized that position to decent (maybe?) and there are a lot of players to choose from whereas in the past we were looking at walk ons if Austin Collinsworth’s shoulder couldn’t remain attached. I also think Allen has a decent chance of running away as the best freshmen for the team in 2018.
Safety seems stable to me. If Gilman is as good as Kelly’s hyped him up to be, I won’t really be as concerned about that position as LB or DT, especially with the current unknown statuses of Coney and Tillery, respectively, even if it seems like both could/should be back.
I’ll also say, I was rather unimpressed that Wimbush was one of the four finalists for team MVP (watched the Echos last night, and it was generally pretty fun and everyone seemed likeable; this was the only thing that made me go “nope nope that’s not cool don’t do that”). Makes me wonder if he is a bit of a head case if the coaches feel like they have to do stuff like that to make him feel better.
But he’s not a headcase, says BK. Nope. His problems aren’t mental. *eyeroll*
@And they’re definitely going to be fixed by BK’s coaching, not caused by BK’s coaching@
Running for 14 TD’s is worthy of a team MVP finalist type of season, IMO. For better or worse Wimbush was the 2nd best non-lineman on the offense.
While that is possibly true, relative to position, Wimbush is not in the top half of players *on offense* relative to position nationally – McGlinchey, Nelson, Mustipher, Bars, Adams all clearly better at their jobs than Wimbush was at his. I’d throw Stepherson in there as well, but realize that’s not unambiguous like the others.
If you define value as value-over-replacement (i.e., difference between him and the backup), then I think you’d have to say that he is less valuable than everyone starting on offense other than Smythe and whoever you’d call the starter at RT. And, of course, this is before even turning to the defensive side of the ball.
The only argument for him as valuable is “he plays quarterback and that’s inherently the most important/valuable position”, but that’s kind of a lame way of looking at MVP as, based on that standard, you would always have to include your starting QB as a finalist.
Well, of course. It’s the team sanctioned award show that’s a made for TV event, naturally the QB who had 30 total touchdowns is going to be spotlighted for “most valuable player” even though many others were better at their positions. I see it as nature of the beast.
Upvoted for “yeah, you’re right”
Granted it was a limited sample and in garbage time, and I forget what game it was, but I really liked true freshman Holmes at RB! Where are they saying Adams would be drafted? I haven’t seen him in the top 2 rounds
His draft status doesn’t matter all that much. If he wants to play NFL$$ it’s time to go. It’s highly unlikely he could improve his positioning if only because it’s very likely he’d be playing behind a worse Oline.
Yeah, if he came back, he’d basically have to improve his pass catching and blocking to improve his draft stock. His best bet is to get out now and hope he gets into a Jordan Howard-esque situation, where he’s playing for a team that really wants to pound the ball on 1st/2nd down, to set him up for that 2nd contract.
Cowboys would probably give him a few looks. Darren McFadden retired a few weeks ago after realizing he was never going to make the gameday roster even during the Zeke suspension. Alfred Morris is very solid, but has clear deficiencies in true breakaway ability. Rod Smith(Jaylon’s brother) is likely the #1 backup next year if Alf isnt retained. That leaves an opening for a drafted RB at #3.
Do you think there’s any chance they’d take a grad transfer RB? It seems like Kelly really likes Tony Jones, but I’m not really sold on him being a particularly high ceiling RB (and as much as I may love Dexter, he can’t seem to stay on the field).
I doubt there’s anyone good enough in the transfer market, right?
Among the 5th years, here’s who I’d want back:
Mustipher
Bars
Tranquill
Hayes
Watkins
That gets us down to 87 which is 2 over what I’ve heard we want to be at. I hear Avery Davis may be transferring which gets it down to 86.
What is the rationale for Davis transferring? I have a hard time believing that Book is the QB of the future after all the picks he’s thrown. Doesn’t it seem like Davis is in the front runner spot for QB of the future?
Because people who are clamoring for Wimbush to be replaced are not clamoring for Davis, they are calling for Jurkovic. He may be seeing the same kind of writing on a wall that Gunner Kiel thought he saw
Granted QB’s always have to be a high transfer threat, but I don’t see why Davis would. Surely he had to have known Wimbush was going to be in his way for 2017 and 2018 and then, with some luck, he would be either starting or at least in competition for it in 2019. Nothing about that has changed. Davis could pull a Kiel but Davis could also pull a Wimbush who stayed patient despite being a high recruit and having 2-3 guys in front of him for years.
There’s a lot of excitement about Jurkovic (guilty here) but he hasn’t proven anything yet. I’d see no reason that Davis needs to be scared off campus by a younger recruit that hasn’t even arrived. Davis surely would know to coming to ND that they’re still going to recruit younger QB’s, so I suppose I don’t see why he should be too surprised or startled at this point.
I’m not calling for it either, just saying that’s the argument out there.
Is it the argument, or something you have heard?
He is a TX kid, so I figured you might have heard rumors that maybe others haven’t.
Remember when everyone was clamoring for the new Wimbush kid and had forgotten about Kizer?
ND fans have been clamoring for the backup since Brady Quinn graduated…
ND fans have been clamoring for the backup since Gus Dorais graduated.
I would be surprised if Davis transferred, but it is a possibility. He has almost been the forgotten man on the roster. Everyone looking ahead to Jurkovic. Adams was also a 4* recruit against good competition in Texas. We heard nothing about him all year until Kelly’s recent comments that indicated he was a good player.
I would like Wimbush to correct his physical/mental issues and capitalize on his experience. As good as Book is, he is not an NC caliber QB. Wimbush has that potential. Davis and Jurkovic may, but there is no way any of us could conceivably know that. If a change needs to be made, and we are not going to give up on 2018, the change will be to Davis. Jurkovic will not have enough time to learn the offense, and take control. The Jake Fromms of the world are few and far between.
Realistically, it makes all the sense in the world why he would transfer.
Book getting some PT all but guarantees Davis begins spring ball as a distant third string. In all likelihood he won’t receive enough “real” snaps in the spring to move into the backup spot. Even before PJ shows up the temptation to transfer may be very strong for Davis.
He’s pretty much checking most of the boxes of someone who would transfer.
Another factor – he could play at a junior college if he wanted to ensure reps immediately, but if he waited another year, or, more likely, two years for his shot at the starting job and didn’t get it, transferring to a juco would be harder.
We’ve seen some guys transfer after taking a RS year as a freshman recently – seems like more in last few years, but I’d rather wildly speculate than actually figure it out 😉 To the extent that is a reality, perhaps that’s a trend that will continue (and does seem like there are at least a couple other guys who took redshirts would would be logical transfer candidates as well).
Book wasn’t particularly good though. I could see the staff running with Davis as the #2 right away in the spring if he looks solid.
The other thing to note is that Davis’ skill set isn’t really one that an NFL team is looking for. So there’s not a ton of upside for him to transfer to a small school and try to snag a starting job right away. If his #1 concern is making an NFL roster, beating out Jurkovec and/or Wimbush and playing great for ND is still probably his best bet for doing that. If his #1 goal is to get a great education, ND is still probably his best bet for doing that.
If his #1 goal is to just be a starting NCAA QB at any old school, then transferring would be his best choice. But I’m hopeful that’s not the case.
Yeah, that was sort of my thought too. If his #1 goal was to be an NCAA starting QB (especially by his academic sophomore year), it should have been obvious with Wimbush around alone that Notre Dame wasn’t the place for him. Nothing’s changed in that regard, so hopefully he’s still on board.
In a perfect world, Davis comes back and is in a competition for the backup job with Book (who like you said was decent but certainly doesn’t seem like a big time starter) and Jurkovec. Being as Wimbush is inconsistent and probably injury-prone with the # of carries he has, it’s a good bet that the #2 next year will probably get a decent amount of playing time for one reason or another.
The crucial part from your comment is Davis running as the #2 right away. Realistically, I don’t think any history with Kelly suggests this will happen.
At best, he’s chipping away at Book in the second half of spring ball. Granted, this is me thinking Book was pretty solid for a backup and Davis isn’t likely going to knock people’s socks off with a handful of reps early on in the spring.
I also think the itch just to play is far stronger for quarterbacks than the itch to play so they can make it to the NFL.
I just realized that signing day is tomorrow. What is the percent of our recruits do we expect to sign tomorrow?
From what I can gather the best bets of remaining targets are:
Petit-Frere
Gordan
Irvin
Lenzy
Any of them announcing tomorrow?
I believe all current commits are signing tomorrow, or sometime in the 3-day window.
Lenzy decides and signs this Friday.
Irvin just said he’s waiting until February.
I don’t think Petit-Frere has a timeline.
I believe Gordon could pop at any moment and he’s trending towards U-Dub.
Who does Irvin think he is waiting until February? What if Boykin and Gordon commit and sign? No spot for you!
Health issue with his family, reportedly.
So… our basketball team is kinda bad?
Thanks for the replies to my question about Davis. Definitely informative. Different tangent: why are people so excited about Jurkovec? It seems like Kelly cannot develop QBs; someone pointed out that Desone’s miracle season came after training with Mike Sanford as the QB2 while Kelly coached the QB1. What makes us think Jurkovec would break this cycle?
Jurkovec will likely play the majority of his career without Kelly, to be honest.
Laughing out loud. I love you, man. Is there a post coming up about that?
The question is why do QBs regress/not improve under Kelly? Does he drive them all insane? I live in Pa and I too am excited for PJ but I’m not giving up on Wimbush yet
Fingers crossed
“It seems like Kelly cannot develop QBs; someone pointed out that Desone’s miracle season came after training with Mike Sanford as the QB2 while Kelly coached the QB1.”
DeShone Kizer played great in 2015 because he was coached by a newly arriving Sanford for a few months in the offseason and we disregard that he was coached by Kelly in 2015 is still a statement that is tough to reconcile and reaks of just not wanting to credit Kelly with anything.
I don’t even know how much credit he deserves (most for good or for bad is probably on the player executing) but the narrative that Sanford came in Feb 2015 and molded Kizer from the kid skipping passes in the previous spring game to a solid starter in 6 months while Kelly had nothing to do with the on the field success once Kizer got on the field just is really odd.
Thanks Eric. Does the fact that ND is now recruiting the O-lineman that’s committed to CO mean Petite Ferre is out? It seems pretty last minute to me.
Nope. We’d like to get two more OL this cycle, but we won’t stretch to just take anyone. They liked Frank Fillip, the Colorado commit who’s now a Colorado signee, and Luke Jones, the Arkansas commit. Things were trending well with Jones but then he slowed things down a bit, and the offer to Fillip went out. So I’d look at it more as hedging their bets with Jones than with NPF.
Thanks Brendan.
Well, hell… Stepherson and CJ Holmes “suspended indefinitely from all football related activities,” per a tweet from the ND sports information department. One would assume it’s either grades or, ahem, recreational activities – grades would be preferable, because if it’s recreation again for KJ he’ll be out for a year and would probably transfer.
CBS says they were arrested for shoplifting.
Have to wonder of Stepherson may be one of those transfers.
Just saw a correction that it is CJ Holmes and Claypool, maybe not Stepherson?
Just saw this after your comment below. Looks like BR said Stepherson and Claypool suspended, they were wrong. It was Stepherson and Holmes. So that correction doesn’t seem correct. Per ND PR it’s officially Stepherson and Holmes suspended at this time. Claypool tweeted he isn’t suspended as well.
https://twitter.com/ChaseClaypool/status/943598977269846017
https://twitter.com/NDsidBertschy/status/943581595906265088
Saw a news report that he was also charged with possession of marijuana. Consider him gone. I hope Kevin Austin is ready to go or can someone like McKinley finally step up?
Claypool also suspended.
Did that come from Bleacher Report? Seemed they initially may have reported Claypool was suspended, but that is fake news, only Stepherson and Holmes were in the incident yesterday.
Claypool is out for the bowl game after shoulder surgery so maybe that’s where some confusion started. Either way, from quick twitter searches, NBC, CBS, NDInsider none of them have Claypool suspended.