For the second straight season Notre Dame will be facing a ranked USC team. You have to go back to the 2009 season during Pete Carroll’s final season in Los Angeles for the last time a ranked Trojan team came to South Bend. That was also the last time both teams in the series came into the game ranked in the AP Poll and also a sneaky fun game at the time despite the Irish loss.

USC (+3.5) at Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 21, 2017
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 46-37-5 Notre Dame

When both teams come in ranked the series is pretty even although at 16-14-2 just slightly in Notre Dame’s favor. The bad news if you’re into the whole history thing is that USC has won the last 4 such games (2009, 2006, 2005, 2002) and it’s been since the 1995 matchup for a Notre Dame win under such conditions.

3 Matchups to Watch

USC’s Steady Rushing vs. Notre Dame’s Front Seven

Ronald Jones was one of the recruiting misses that still stings and he’s having a successful junior campaign so far with 640 yards at 6.2 per rush. The Trojans primary backup–5 star freshman Stephen Carr–was playing well until injuring his foot, and while his boot came off this week, he’s unable to put on the pads this Saturday.

The USC ground game isn’t super strong averaging 128 fewer yards per game than Notre Dame. What they have done is total 43 runs of at least 10 yards which is tied for 25th nationally. The Irish defense has played quite well but have allowed 26 such runs (t-39th) so it’s a bit of a weakness.

Sam Darnold Turnovers vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary

This one is really easy. Sam Darnold has thrown a Pac-12 worst 9 interceptions this season. As a team, the Trojans have fumbled 11 times and lost 7 of them.

USC has been averaging over 2 turnovers per game and the Irish have been creating over 2 turnovers per game. Let’s hope that math works out in Notre Dame’s favor.

Irish Ground Game Staying on Schedule

We can expect USC to crowd the line of scrimmage and be on a mission to shut down the Irish ground game. For as great as the Notre Dame rushing attack has been they still aren’t running the ball a ton (just over 61% overall still a Kelly-era high) nor being amazingly awesome at grinding out yards.

It may work out that the Irish run game remains super explosive and there’s a game-breaking Josh Adams touchdown run. If not, this is a massive game to test all of your uncle’s favorite adjectives to describe a great rushing attack.

2 Stats to Consider

46.8% Third Down Conversions

In the big picture it’s been a disappointing year for Sam Darnold relative to expectations but he’s been a crazy alien freak on third downs. On third and short plus third and medium he’s 16 of 22 for 217 yards and 14 throws that moved the chains. Overall, the Trojans are converting 46.8% of their 3rd downs good for 18th nationally and 2nd best in the Pac-12 conference.

38 Pass Break-Ups

As per usual, Southern Cal is loaded with talent in their defensive secondary. They are also really active breaking up the second-most passes nationally (38) in addition to picking off 10 passes, although with the last stat a couple have come from linebackers.

In a game where turnovers could be a major advantage for Notre Dame making sure Wimbush doesn’t toss a couple interceptions or lose fumbles has to be higher priority than usual.

1 Prediction

It’s a little easier to say now with hindsight but a No. 4 pre-season ranking in the AP Poll for USC was likely a touch or two too high. The Trojans lost a lot of talent from their Rose Bowl-winning 2016 team, didn’t have great situations on their lines coming into the fall, and the reality is that your average college football fan wouldn’t know anyone on this Trojans team outside of Sam Darnold.

Now, the situations on their lines are a bit troubling. The offensive line lost right guard Via Talamaivao but otherwise they are fine up front. Nothing special but solid overall.

The defensive line isn’t getting better anytime soon. Pass rushing specialist Porter Gustin (13.5 career sacks) is dealing with bicep injuries and is out for Saturday. On the interior, the always-injured Kenny Bigelow retired, backup freshman Marlon Tuipulota is out for the year with a back injury, and now starter Josh Fatu is out following a concussion from a car accident suffered earlier this week.

One big takeaway from Michael’s advanced stats preview was that USC is good at taking the ball away and limiting efficiency, especially in passing, while being average to mediocre everywhere else.  Keeping things smart and easy for Wimbush while finding a way to become a little more efficient on the ground game is the recipe for success for Notre Dame.

I’ve found myself in a weird place this week. On one hand the bye week brought a nice little break and plenty of rest from the grind of college football. I also felt confident Notre Dame was going to win this game and for whatever reason wasn’t too excited to dig into this preview.

However, we know how perilous this season could be and holy crap here’s a chance for a big ass win! I get the sense many people don’t think this is a great USC team, which is fair, but all things being equal they will still have a good shot at capturing the Pac-12 and winning 10 games.

The one big negative for me is that good USC quarterback + good USC team equals loss for Notre Dame, at least in recent history. Here’s the matchups for Kelly since he came to Notre Dame in 2010.

WINS

2010 (8-5) Mustain – 37 passes, 177 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
2012 (7-6) Wittek – 23 passes, 186 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
2013 (10-3) Kessler – 34 passes, 201 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
2015 (8-6) Kessler – 47 passes, 440 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT

LOSSES

2011 (10-2) Barkley – 35 passes, 224 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
2014 (9-4) Kessler – 40 passes, 372 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT
2016 (10-4) Darnold – 29 passes, 205 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

I want to avoid too many causation and correlation talk but generally if the Trojans get poor quarterback play they aren’t winning. The lone exception was 2015 which was a very high scoring game.

With Darnold at the helm I’m certain this will be a high scoring game similar to 2015. I do think Elko’s defense will be humbled a little bit, although it’s pretty cool that they haven’t given up more than 20 points yet this season. Keeping that up for a whole season was unrealistic and super unlikely to happen against the Trojans.

Coming off a bye week, while being the far healthier team, while being favored, while playing at home at night…it’s time to beat a good USC team with a good quarterback. I’m going to get a little crazy and predict a solid Irish victory.

  • WINNER: Notre Dame 44 USC 31
  • VS. SPREAD (-3.5): Notre Dame
  • OVER/UNDER (65.5): Over
  • SPECIAL, WIMBUSH PASS ATTEMPS (26.5): Under