The Fighting Irish head to Palo Alto this Saturday with much on the line. Before we get into the deep stuff below, on the surface Notre Dame has lost its last 4 trips to Stanford which sucks really bad. The last time the Irish beat Stanford on the road the first edition of the iPhone had just debuted months earlier, Charlie Weis would coach 2 more years in South Bend, and The Wire was about to finish up its last season.

It’s been a while.

Notre Dame (-2.5) at Stanford

Stanford Stadium
Palo Alto, California
Date: Saturday, November 25, 2017
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Television: ABC
Series: 19-12-0 Notre Dame

Stanford comes into the weekend laying in the weeds, so to speak. With a game in hand they currently lead the Pac-12 North division and have clinched at least a share of the division for the 5th time in 7 years. Their fate is out of their hands as they await the winner of the Apple Cup which kicks off at the same time on Fox. Stanford needs Washington to win in order to meet USC in the Pac-12 Championship.

So, this game with Notre Dame is kind of meaningless for the Cardinal!

3 Matchups to Watch

Combating Stanford’s Offensive Line

The Cardinal line has been mixing and matching at a lot of positions this year with the exception of center where redshirt junior Jesse Burkett has been a rock. They’re not anything spectacular but have allowed just 12 sacks which is tied for 3rd best among Power 5 programs. They’re also not throwing the ball that much, although there’s been an uptick from last year.

A key for the Irish will be to try and get as many negative plays as possible and hold their breath that they can withstand the big rushing plays from Bryce Love.

Doing Something Through the Air

Stanford held Rice, ASU, Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington to 17 or fewer completions while causing at least one interception in each game except for the latter against the Huskies. However, they’ve also let USC have their way (316 yards, 4 TD) while UCLA (40 completions, 480 yards) and Washington State (34 completions, 337 yards) all had big days through the air.

Wimbush has a big task ahead of him of either being super efficient (highly unlikely given his resume) and able to protect the ball (decent chance) or putting up a career day through the air.

Stop Love’s Long Runs

Bryce Love is pretty much guaranteed a spot in New York City as a Heisman finalist. He leads the Pac-12 in rushing yards and leads the country in yards per game. He’s also the national leader in yards per carry from a running back with at least 100 carries.

He’s also severely banged up and might not be the same player he was earlier in the year when he rushed for at least 147 yards in every game. Love sat out the Oregon State game with an ankle injury and re-injured the ankle last week late against California. He’s officially listed as probable.

2 Stats to Consider

38-6 at Stanford Stadium

It doesn’t get much national attention but David Shaw has built quite a fortress around the usually sleepy haven that is Stanford Stadium while going 38-6 at home in his tenure. If they can beat the Fighting Irish on Saturday night it would complete the 3rd season over the last 6 campaigns in which the Cardinal went unbeaten in Palo Alto. Their 6 losses include:

2016, Washingon State, 42-16
2016, Colorado, 10-5
2015, Oregon, 38-36
2014, USC, 13-10
2014, Utah, 20-17
2011, Oregon, 53-30

+0.90 YPP

Out of the currently ranked teams in the College Football Poll there are 9 teams averaging fewer than 1 yard per play differential: USC, Washington State, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Memphis, Northwestern, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and…Stanford.

The Irish have already beaten 2 of those teams and would feel pretty good about their chances against the rest in that group. As far as Stanford is concerned, they do have the 2nd highest YPP (+0.90) out of the group behind USC.

1 Prediction

If you’re a Stanford fan you have to be awfully worried about the status of Bryce Love and even if he suits up just how healthy and effective he’ll be against the Irish. Since sitting out the Oregon State game he’s ripped off runs of 52 and 57 yards but has averaged just 3.91 yards over his other 58 carries.

Perhaps more alarming, Love has only been successful on 24 out of his 60 carries since coming back from injury, including 5 of 14 last week against the Cal Bears.

If Love can’t provide a successful night running or rip off a couple long runs Stanford could be in big trouble. Their YPP defense is thoroughly mediocre (5.75, 75th nationally, only Navy is worse among ND opponents) and their passing game isn’t much better than Notre Dame’s which is saying something.

But, here’s the thing about Stanford. They’ve often defied the odds in many ways, for example, they were a super pedestrian +0.42 in YPP differential and +77 in point differential last year and still won 10 games. Take similar stats for any modern Notre Dame team and they probably averaged 5 to 6 losses that season.

So, Stanford’s home record, home winning streak against Notre Dame, and the general struggles of Brian Kelly teams to win road games against ranked teams has me awfully worried.

This also is setting up to be such a ridiculously annoying Stanford win. As mentioned, this game really doesn’t do much for them as their bowl prospects are largely tied to winning the Pac-12. The Cardinal can lose Saturday and technically still win 10 games.

Don’t even get me started on Bryce Love not even playing and Stanford still winning. It’d be peak Stanford vs. Notre Dame rivalry. Which, by the way kind of happened last year as Christian McCaffrey sat out with injury and the Irish still couldn’t beat Stanford’s ineffective offense.

No, this is an absolutely massive game for Notre Dame. As much as the Miami game changed the calculus of the season the fact remains the Irish are still in position to finish in the Top 5 for only the second time since 1993 and of course the major bowl drought since the same amount of time could fall as well.

We’re within days away from a non-championship great regular season and a month of football happiness leading up to maybe the premier non-playoff bowl game!

It’s not okay to lose this game. I wouldn’t go so far as to say this season is a failure with a loss in Palo Alto but the difference between 9-3 and 10-2 is crystal clear. The former just doesn’t move the needle and no one will care about playing in the Belk Bowl, or wherever the Irish would fall in the post-season.

You may notice above in Stanford’s recent home losses they are either blown out or losing extremely tight games. All week I’ve been fighting a prediction of a big Notre Dame win versus a close Stanford win. That damaged, battered, and scared Irish fan in me is waiting for that gut-punch loss but my brain keeps saying if Wimbush plays half-decently this could be a satisfying 18-point win. With little confidence, I’ll throw a dart somewhere in the middle with Notre Dame winning a very tight, defensive battle.

  • WINNER: Notre Dame 19 Stanford 17
  • VS. SPREAD (-2.5): Stanford
  • OVER/UNDER (57): Under
  • SPECIAL, LOVE CARRIES (17.5): Under