Saturday marks another installment of the rivalry game between Notre Dame and Navy that has been running continuously since the first meeting in 1927. Besides a pair of games in Dublin–and another just announced to be coming again in 2020–the vast majority of the ‘away’ games in the series have been played in the Midwest (largely, Cleveland in the past) or in more recent times in the Eastern cities of Philadelphia, New York, or Baltimore quite often. This weekend’s game will be the first held in California and the furthest west of Chicago.

Notre Dame (-24) at Navy

San Diego County Credit Union Stadium
San Diego, California
Date: Saturday, October 27, 2018
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: CBS
Series: 77-13-1 Notre Dame

Navy is currently in the middle of some major struggles having lost 4 straight and 5 of their first 7 games to open 2018, in addition to going 4-11 over their last 15 games stretching back to last year. The current 5 losses are already a tie for the 3rd most in a season under Ken Niumatalolo and with Cincinnati and UCF on deck following Saturday, the Middies could be looking at a 2-8 record relatively soon. They get to play a 13th game thanks to a trip to Hawaii (which they lost) so record-wise this is shaping up to be the worst Navy team of the Coach Ken era with potentially the most losses since 2002.

3 Pre-Game Topics

Yeah, it’s Pretty Ugly Right Now

Navy’s current problems boil down to two major issues. One, they’ve mismanaged their quarterback situation. Two, their defense has bottomed out like we haven’t seen in many years. We’ll cover the offense below but the defense has been struggling in a way that makes it hard to win against any quality competition.

Currently, the Middies are allowing 6.56 yards per play (115th nationally) and nothing on their S&P+ defensive main profile has them better than 90th nationally. The opener at Hawaii wasn’t a good sign after the Warriors posted 31 completions for 436 yards and 6 touchdowns in a 59-point effort.

The only thing that’s looked remotely good is Navy’s win over Memphis when they limited the S&P+ 9th ranked offense to 21 points. Even that was largely due to Memphis’ 4 turnovers as Navy hogged the ball for nearly 43 minutes. When the Tigers did have the ball they averaged 7.7 yards per play.

Inside Job

I’m sure Irish safety Alohi Gilman will be ready to jump through a wall this Saturday. The former Midshipmen was last seen in this rivalry back in 2016 when he made a game-high 12 tackles before deciding to chase his NFL dream in South Bend. The USNA dragged their feet with submitting the necessary paperwork in August 2017 and all but guaranteed Gilman would be denied his chance to compete right away with the Irish last year.

Now, it’s payback time! I doubt he’ll have many secrets to give the staff that they don’t already know, though. This is just a case of a really good football player competing with extra motivation.

30-Something 

I am virtually contractually obligated to mention this every year: Notre Dame has never lost in regulation (39-0-0) when they score at least 30 points against Navy. The Irish were on a 30+ point streak from 2011-15 but did not hit the mark in either of the last 2 meetings with the Middies.

Navy is giving up 34.3 points per game without having faced a Power 5 team yet. So, the math isn’t working in the Middies favor.

2 Key Opponents

QB Garrett Lewis 

Basically, it breaks down like this: Zach Abey is the tough inside runner, Malcom Perry is the small speedster, and Garret Lewis is the mixture of both at quarterback. Last year, the Middies tried to hammer Abey down the throats of opponents but often found him ineffective before moving Perry over from slotback. Perry has been far more explosive but has found it difficult to stay healthy–he missed the Notre Dame game last year as Abey plunged forward for 87 yards on 29 carries.

This weekend, Navy appears ready to settle on Lewis with Perry back at slotback and Abey also working at slotback and at quarterback in short-yardage situations. Lewis is also the most comfortable throwing the ball as he’s launched 49 passes this season and 24 over the last 2 weeks alone.

SB C.J. Williams

One of the great and terrible things about Navy is young players without any recruiting profile popping up and being good players immediately. C.J. Williams is a sophomore who didn’t play last year and missed the last 2 games with an injury while he’s expected to be back in action this Saturday night.

Williams could be one of the dynamic playmakers at slot back that Navy needs in this game. In just 5 games he’s totaled 143 rushing yards on 13 carries and also produced 148 receiving yards on 8 catches.

1 Prediction

With the last Notre Dame game I predicted a big day offensively and a relatively easy win. That, did not happen. Last year against Navy I predicted 51 points. That, did not happen. The Irish were super efficient running the ball against the Middies last year but only had the ball for 49 snaps and Wimbush’s mere 9 completions were another data point piling up that the passing game was never going to take off under his leadership.

No game against Navy can be discussed without bringing up the limited amount of snaps. A couple bad snaps can mean you’re going to get 20 fewer snaps overall and it’s always the worst feeling against a triple option team.

Additionally, our writers room was recently discussing which opponent(s) down the stretch wouldn’t be in the right frame of mind to try and upset an undefeated Notre Dame. I’m pretty sure Navy is going to be ready as anyone to spring the upset. It’d be shocking to see them play poorly or lay down even though for all intents and purposes their season is over.

National Rankings

STAT IRISH NAVY
F/+ 8 86
S&P+ 7 100
S&P+ Offense 41 38
S&P+ Defense 5 117

I think this mentality, as per usual, will manifest itself in Navy’s offense. As much as they’ve struggled this year they are still plenty dangerous on offense and honestly switching to Garrett Lewis and leaving Malcom Perry out of the mix likely helps them craft a better gameplan against the Irish. There’s always a chance they break out some small wrinkle that’s been dormant in their offense for years, too. That’s always fun.

Prior to doing more research, I was getting some strong 2011 vibes from this matchup. That game featured Tommy Rees’ precision passing (16 of 22) carving up Navy and a strong ground-game punching in a bunch of touchdowns. After the obligatory slow start, the Irish raced out to a 35-7 halftime lead on the way to a cruise-controlled 56-14 victory.

My only hesitation in that comparison was that Navy was struggling back then in their first post-Ricky Dobbs season and Notre Dame limited them to just 229 total yards in Diaco’s Revenge following the embarrassment at MetLife Stadium in 2010. This Irish defense is good but expecting a total domination like that could be a lot to ask.

Interestingly, the over/under set by Vegas is only at 53.5 and if we assume Notre Dame’s offense has a pretty decent day they are expecting Navy not to do a whole lot with the ball.

One of the most accurate quarterbacks is going to face one of the worst pass defenses in the country. I’m really tempted to throw down something crazy like 60+ points except Navy is bound to convert a handful of third or fourth downs in annoying fashion to ever make that possible and the damaged fan in me believes there will be a couple of moments of struggle that has come to typify this rivalry. The combination of Notre Dame rarely covering these large spreads and Navy rarely losing by this much when such a heavy underdog is too much to ignore.

Notre Dame 42

Navy 27