With National Signing Day right around the corner the dust is beginning to settle as we are setting our sights on the 2017 football season. Spring ball is almost here, new recruits are already on campus, and the head coach remains in place.

Despite some wild and wacky rumors following the end of the 2016 football season it is as Jack Swarbrick said it would be: Brian Kelly will be the Irish coach for 2017.

South Bend Renovation

As few as 3 weeks ago I was very confident that 2017 would be Brian Kelly’s last season at Notre Dame. I figured we’d see a little bit of coaching turnover and a solid defensive coordinator hired but nothing so bold as to upset the apple cart in either direction, both for a complete rejuvenation or stubborn insistence on keeping things the same. Just a nice bit of change and that’s it.

Now, with an (almost) brand new coaching staff and revamped strength program you have to wonder what exactly the future holds for Kelly and the Irish.

To be clear, I’m not sure the renovation affects my belief in things really changing dramatically on the field. I could just as soon envision another stumbling season as much as a renewed sense of glory and 10+ wins. I’d bet Elko does some good things straight out of the gate but I’m not jumping on the strength & conditioning bandwagon in the least bit.

However, the effort of this rebuild heading into a coach’s 8th year is really interesting. The immediate reaction is this isn’t just a one-year fix for Brian Kelly. Admittedly, that’s not something I was prepared to digest this off-season and now I’m not so sure this will be Kelly’s final season in South Bend.

Money & Buyouts

One rumor over the past couple months was that Notre Dame was willing to part ways with Brian Kelly but just couldn’t match up a strong enough candidate in comparison to the buyout money needed to get rid of the current coach.

Kelly’s current deal runs through 2021. With any buyout moving forward an extra year is always going to help the money you’ll inevitably be forced to pay out, and depending on if the search was real, one could understand Notre Dame’s motives in sticking with Kelly another season. Following 4-8 that’s a little more difficult to swallow, but I imagine many weren’t moved from their mid-fall belief that with the recent extension handed out it was wise to give Kelly 2017 as a final proving ground.

Yet, with this overhaul of the program—and countless new multi-year contracts dished out to assistants—this has the look and feel of a buyout for Kelly that drops down in price enormously following the 2018 season. I have no idea if that’s true but it’s the first thing that popped into my head once the coaching staff welcomed so many new faces.

If this is true it’s really scary. That could mean Notre Dame is prepared to dig its heels in (short of another complete disaster season) no matter what. This kind of happened after 2008 but it was far more understandable for a brand new athletic director and following a coach’s 4th season. Kelly is twice as far along and welcomes far more worn out.

The angel on one side says this is just a last ditch effort by Notre Dame to see if Kelly can catch magic in a bottle again and if not they’re entirely willing to eat 4 negotiated years of his remaining contract plus the aftershock money of all the assistants who would be here only one season. The devil on the other side is saying this is a 2-year plan and the bar is going to be set a lot lower than you believe for the 2017 season.

Soft Landing, Hard No

One thing I’m certain isn’t going to happen is the rumor that Brian Kelly wanted out of Notre Dame and the school was actively trying to help him find another job to avoid paying him a buyout.

No way on so many levels.

First, this kind of maneuvering is practically unprecedented at this level of college football. Second, it requires a level of understanding that seems entirely untenable.

“Hey, I don’t like it here wanna help me find another job?” “Yeah, cool totally understand and we’ll save on your buyout.” “No doubt, and if we can’t find me a suitable new job I’ll just stay here for a couple more years anyway.”

Third, and most importantly, such a neat and tidy severing of a relationship is entirely too good to be true. It seems like it could work if you suspend parts of reality but put together as a whole I find that complete fantasy.

What if Kelly does well in 2017 and leaves for another job, of his own accord, even something that is close to a lateral move? I just don’t see it. Staying at Notre Dame, getting fired, or possibly a retirement. Those are the realistic options after next season.

Overcoming 4-8

I’ve felt very strongly for a number of years that Kelly’s tenure would:

1) Be the Great Gray Area

2) End in a really bad way

Once upon a time it wasn’t too difficult to see that Kelly was going to carve out a good but not elite career in South Bend. With that came a volatile and explosive situation–the purgatory of being able to keep his job but with the natives getting more and more restless with each passing season.

Going 4-8 completely blew up the Great Gray Area–and as much as I think it’s unfair to label most of the post-2012 era as bad–there hasn’t been enough good times over the past 4 years to feel great about the current situation.

Kelly was different because he was bucking so many traditional norms at Notre Dame. That was part of the Gray Area, you couldn’t easily fit him into a box (failed coach or let’s build him a statue coach) so easily. Heading into 2017, he’ll face perhaps his biggest test in the face of tradition in South Bend. No Irish coach has overcome a really bad year. No coach has survived the “lots of bad things have been laid bare before our eyes” season and rebounded to find success.

I think deep down a lot of people instinctively know this, or especially feel this. Even with the rebuilt coaching staff I wouldn’t underestimate how quickly things may turn south quickly next fall. I’m talking just one loss (looking at you Georgia in week two) and it could get really, really dark before the first road game.

Is that depressing? Maybe, but in times like this it’s wise to remember how quickly things can change in college football. It may seem like the Irish are yet again wandering in the wilderness, however, the program went 3-9 while being blown off the field numerous times only to reach the National Title Game 5 years later. Lots of things are possible in college football and change is always around the corner.