It’s been 9 years since the Irish have played Duke and that overcast afternoon in 2007 was one of the most depressing home games in recent memory watched by one of the smaller crowds in school history. Duke was so bad that year that they were soundly defeated by one of the worst Notre Dame teams ever.
As the Blue Devils head to South Bend this weekend things are much different. Older-than-he-looks David Cutcliffe is 9 years into an impressive reclamation project in Durham which has seen him win 28 games since the start of 2013 complete with the school’s first bowl win in 54 years.
Duke (+20.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: September 24, 2016
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 3-1-0 Notre Dame
And yet, with Notre Dame already falling to Texas and Michigan State things are still a major uphill battle this weekend for Duke. The Irish are currently in the middle of an embroiled coaching and defensive situation but the Blue Devils are also having their own problems coming into the weekend with a poor start to 2016.
3 Matchups to Watch
VanGorder vs. Daniel Jones
Duke suffered awful news prior to the season when starting quarterback Thomas Sirk tore his achilles for the 3rd time and won’t play in 2016. Redshirt junior Parker Boehme played a decent amount last year once Sirk tore his achilles for a second time but it’s lowly recruited redshirt freshman Daniel Jones who won the job in camp.
So far, head coach David Cutcliffe is all in on Jones which has been his MO with the quarterback position in recent years. He’s already thrown 111 passes, including 48 in each of the last two games against Power 5 competition. What’s more, he’s carried the ball 29 times over the last two weeks for 45% of the team’s rushing attempts.
There was some late summer hype surrounding Jones (probably has a lot do with the feel good story of having virtually no offers coming out of high school) but he’s been roughly serviceable. Decent numbers, however, he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass over the last two weeks and the Blue Devils are struggling with turnovers. They’ve fumbled 10 times, lost 8 of them, and among all of their red zone opportunities they’ve come away with 0 points 4 times already this season.
Special Teams
The Irish should have a large advantage this weekend with special teams. David Cutcliffe has been a little ornery following two fumbled punts from redshirt freshman Austin Parker. If that’s not bad enough, freshman kicker A.J. Reed has missed all 3 field goal attempts this year.
Duke also doesn’t have much experience returning kickoffs (just 4 on the season) while Parker has only booted 2 touchbacks on 11 kickoffs. I suspect this could be a big day for Irish special teams.
Irish Pass Protection vs. Duke’s Aggressiveness
If backfield disruption won football games on its own Duke would really be cooking. They come into the weekend with 25 tackles for loss and 14 sacks which seem like otherworldly stats compared to the Irish defense. And it’s not like they ripped apart N.C. Central, either. Last week, the Blue Devils posted 11 tackles for loss against Northwestern–the Irish haven’t posted that many in a game since 2010 versus Boston College.
The funny thing is that most of Duke’s disruption comes outside of their defensive line. It’s like Brian VanGorder’s dream! Already through 3 games Duke has 6 players with at least 2 tackles for loss and only one is a lineman.
Their linebackers and safeties are very active. This is the same Jim Knowles scheme that produced 18 tackles for loss from box safety Jeremy Cash last year. Somewhat surprisingly, Cash went undrafted this spring but made the Carolina Panthers 53-man squad after beefing up into a linebacker.
If the Irish provide ample protection for Kizer and plenty of room for the running backs it could be a long afternoon for Duke. They aren’t helped by starting safety Deondre Singleton being suspended for the first half following a targeting penalty last week.
2 Sides of the Line
Duke returned 3 starters from 2015 including redshirt junior left tackle Gabe Brandner (6-6, 285), 5th-year right guard Tanner Stone (6-6, 300), and 5th-year senior right tackle Casey Blaser (6-5, 290). The new starter at center is redshirt junior Austin Davis (6-4, 290) who saw very limited snaps last fall.
The left guard position appears unsettled for the Blue Devils. For the first two games, Duke went with redshirt freshman Zach Baker (6-4, 295) only to sit him down against Northwestern in favor of redshirt sophomore Zach Harmon (6-3, 285). It’s been a struggle for the line as they were embarrassed against Wake Forest (37 yards on 30 carries) and a little better last week against Northwestern (117 yards). They’ve also given up 7 sacks in their last 2 games.
Duke is replacing several bodies on their defensive line. They will rely primarily on two interior players in returning starter 5th-year senior A.J. Wolf (6-4, 280) who has 3 sacks this season–although they all came in the opener against N.C. Central. He will play next to redshirt junior Mike Ramsey (6-2, 295) who made 4 starts last year and is the Blue Devils’ space eater up front.
Defensive end lost 3 experienced players from 2015 and heads into this weekend without starter redshirt junior Dominic McDonald (6-2, 240) who injured his shoulder last week. Now, true sophomore Marquies Price (6-6, 245) needs to step up as the other starter but he’s without a TFL or sack so far. Duke may also have to rely on former walk-on redshirt sophomore Danny Doyle (6-1, 215) who picked up a sack last week against Northwestern.
1 Prediction
The coaching acumen of David Cutcliffe has limits. The country as a whole loves watching programs stuck in the doldrums build themselves into respectable opponents and Cutcliffe has done just that. It’s something many thought Chuck Martin would be doing at Miami of Ohio today but he’s still stuck at 5-22 with the RedHawks.
During my off-season preview I talked about Duke being overrated in the sense that they’ve done some nice things but are still stuck underneath a sizable ceiling. For example, they’ve only beaten one ranked team under Cutcliffe and their top wins in recent years are littered with some very mediocre-to-bad ACC teams.
Last year Duke finished 75th in S&P and was projected to move up to 51st which is right around the edge of the best Cutcliffe has done in Durham. As the Blue Devils head into the weekend S&P has them placed at 63rd nationally which really isn’t that bad given they’ve lost to a pair of perceived poor Power 5 teams. What’s keeping them so high is the love for their defense (22nd Defensive S&P) which, as we’ve discussed, has been very disruptive, plus forced 2 turnovers per game and kept opponents to just 4.49 yards per play.
Obviously, the loss of Thomas Sirk has had an effect and Daniel Jones hasn’t quite been the savior. However, the Duke offense hasn’t really been that off compared to last year. Their production versus Wake and Northwestern is very similar in 2016 compared to 2015 with the exception being they’re scoring fewer points.
Just last week Duke turned the ball over on downs after a 53-yard drive, tossed a pick after 46-yard drive, fumbled after a 54-yard drive, and missed a field goal after a 38-yard drive.
So, the Blue Devils offer some spunk on offense if they can just get out of their own way. And maybe show they can make a field goal for once.
Notre Dame is in an interesting place mentally, as many of you Irish fans know well. It’s the first time since 2013 (and really 2011) that the team is out of the national title picture this early in the season. Since it’s such a young team it’s the first time for many of the players experiencing this embarrassment and of course as an independent there’s a lot more difficulty finding that fire to dominate every week from here on out.
Brian Kelly is generally very good in games like these, though. Prior to the season this Duke game was one of the trap games bandied about in certain corners but now with the bad taste of the Michigan State game that’s wiped away completely.
Of course, the stadium atmosphere should be pretty dull which won’t help. Furthermore, I’m at a loss of words on how to predict what kind of defensive performance we’ll see from Notre Dame. I’m also not sure how good this Irish team really is at this point but they are within the realm of talent in which Duke typically finds itself outmatched.
Look for Kizer to hit a few big pass plays after Duke’s blitzes get picked up and Irish receivers are sent off to the races. We’ll also be giving up some touchdowns, too.
HOT TAKE: Notre Dame gets a sack in this game. I just have a good feeling. “What though the odds” and whatnot.
They’re going to Steak N Shake at halftime?
Takhomasak autothumbs! You get me, KG. You get me.
What’s a sack??
Seemingly every line of the preview talks about Duke’s weaknesses, so I’m expecting a nice final score, maybe even a cover on a 3 TD spread. This is exciting!
Then I get to the very last sentence. “We’ll also be giving up some touchdowns, too. 34-23”
Oh.
Great preview I just liked how the buildup surprised me. I would be disappointed if they “only” put up 34. Giving up 3 touchdowns wouldn’t be surprising but still would disappoint as well. Hoping things get on track because hope is a dangerous thing. 41-17, go Irish.
This team needs, in every way, to work harder through adversity. Film of the MSU game showed the entire team stopping on each play after making initial contact with their opponent. Offensive linemen would engage with the defenders and promptly stop moving their feet, getting out worked to the whistle. Defensive linemen and LBs (outside of Morgan) did exactly the same and were easily blocked/held. RBs got hit and stopped moving their feet.
This team has a cultural issue with finishing to the echo of the whistle. Perhaps it’s because we have practiced cautiously rather than tackling to the ground. In any event, I posit that if coaches had focused (and drilled) on this one message, “finish plays, outwork your opponent!” we would have won at Texas and perhaps even against MSU. But going forward, it can’t hurt either.
If this is the central message, if finishing plays is a new culture we are striving for, then ND should not let up on Duke even with a big lead. That culture of finishing can’t be turned on and off, it needs to become an institutional identity.
We should beat Duke by 35 if this is what the coaches identified.
Kelly said exactly that about the pass protection against MSU – Kizer got drilled a couple of times because linemen didn’t sustain their blocks to the echo of the whistle. Even used the same phrase. I’m betting it was, shall we say, a point of emphasis in practice this week. We have lots of guys who love to hit people, so toughness isn’t a problem; it’s just focus.
I really struggle with there being a focus issue that is team wide. A focus issue, to me, would translate to poor coaching. Surely these kids have heard the phrase “play to the echo of the whistle” thousands of times. Could this be players concerned with silly penalties and not wanting to hold the team back with penalties?
You make a good point, Russ. Calling it “a focus problem” is almost certainly oversimplifying it by assigning a single cause to a single logical entity, the team, that’s comprised of 85 physical individuals who each have their own strengths, weaknesses, concerns, beliefs, etc. For example, Kelly basically said that Nelson’s struggles in the first two games were a result of him worrying too much about what McGlinchey and Mustipher were doing instead of just doing his own thing. He’s focusing but he’s focusing on too many things. On the other hand, you have the young receivers on the biggest play of the game, our 3rd and 2 attempt on our last possession that ended in Kizer getting sacked, all running awful routes – Kelly called the routes (not the players, importantly) “lazy.” That’s definitely a loss of focus at a very inopportune time.
I’m surprised, honestly, that we’re talking about an offensive line with a reputation for meanness not playing all the way through a play. McGlinchey and Nelson are two of the roughest guys we’ve seen in a while, Mustipher is a mean SOB with a defensive line mindset, and Bars had to rein in his aggressiveness in his first couple of seasons. We don’t really have a book on McGovern, but he beat out a guy that made opponents want to fight him in high school so I’m sure he likes to hit too. I really don’t know what to make of that. I think maybe there’s some complacency with some guys, some resting on laurels or believing their press clippings, not just on the OL but in general. The coaches need to shake that out of the guys.
I think you might be on to something with the press clipping thing. I always believed that was part of KVR’s problem last year.
Maybe so, but I think playing on a stress fracture the entire season was a part of KVR’s problem too.
For this OL, it shouldn’t be surprising to see a drop after they were the #1 line last year, and have new people in 4 spots, 3 of them new starters. I do agree with Brendan’s take on it, and think they will improve and hopefully become more cohesive in time.
Didn’t know he had a stress fracture–was that publicized?
Yeah, he pretty much said it as much as anyone would listen.
I’ve been a part of preparing guys to perform well in big moments. It is very difficult. You talk about being a team and a family, you try to emphasize certain things, but they still come away with an emphasis on something else. I think that’s a big part of what made Diaco’s defenses so effective. If the concepts are simplified, there is less room for misunderstanding where the emphasis is placed. I have always been of the mindset that you can be great at one two things, but you can only be good at three to five. It just continues to degrade the more tasks you add to it.
As far as people thinking they’re better than they are playing, you have film to show them how bad they really are. If that doesn’t work, then give the playing time to the guys that will work hard in the manner you want to see it done. I know that’s over simplified, but I bet it would get results.
In the Marines, we used to call it Keep It Simple, Stupid (KISS) to try to minimize mistakes.
On the other hand, many CFB defenses are very complex, eg Bama, MSU, tOSU, Stanford, others, and their guys seem able to learn and execute most of the time.
I’m not really sure what exactly our problem is–some combination of coaching and player focus I guess.
Are MSU and Stanford really that complex? I know MSU requires very specific corners for press coverage (most of the time), but do those two programs really throw many exotic blitzes at you? I’ve never noticed that against them.
I don’t know if it applies to Stanford and MSU, but you can have very complex defenses made of simple parts that the individual players can grasp and understand right away. The example that comes to my mind is TCU and Gary Patterson, which is overall a complex defense, but each player only has one or two reads to make to determine what they do. It’s the aggregate of the various player groupings and different combinations that makes it complex, not each player having to remember 20 different things. Of course, last year and this year haven’t been the best examples from TCU of good defense, but Big12 gonna Big12.
Diaco needed to use simple concepts so the guys had mental energy left to figure out what risk “energy buckets” and “vampires” posed to his defense of “werewolves.” That guy gave the best unintentional sound bites ever. I could totally see him leading a cult if he wasn’t a football coach – he has the intensity that you can’t fight and the weirdness that enthralls.
And, of course, his hair is perfect.
I feel like we’re somewhere near the epicenter but still not quite there on what ails this team. I agree with Brendan and Russ that merely saying “its a lack of focus” is certainly descriptive and seems to be somewhat accurate, but it also feels like focus is the symptom rather than the disease. The real conundrum is, then, what is the disease?
There are parts of games where the team comes together and plays well for good stretches. The comebacks against both Texas and MSU included plenty of very good play on both sides of the ball. So we know these players are capable of it. And we therefore also know that there are at least some schemes the players can understand and execute.
So what was the primary difference between the uninspired and disjointed play that got ND in the hole in two games, on the one hand, and the prolific comebacks, on the other? Were the coaches simply yelling “focus!” and the players did it? Was the game situation so dire that it got the players’ attention and they responded by clawing fiercely back into the game? Were the play calls different, easier to execute, more aggressive? I’m guessing it’s more the latter than anything else. Kelly and Denbrock took the wraps off the offense and it was a thing of beauty. And when Kelly got tight at the end of the Texas game and the end of the MSU game, offensively, the team responded badly, making mistakes again. Might it really be this simple? Might it be that the coaches are getting the very outcome they are inspiring? It’s worth a thought.
Perhaps Texas and MSU lost some of their “focus” after pulling away to big leads.
I’m shuddering with fear that you’re right.
The main reason Duke remains relatively high in S&P+ is that the stats are still primarily based on preseason projections. If they keep doing what they’ve been doing they’ll fall pretty significantly as the preseason weightings fall off.
We *should* win this game by more than 11. But that sure doesn’t mean we will. I’d view 21 points given up as a floor for any P5 team given our defense, but this may test that theory.
Have you ever been in a bar with a bunch of people you knew and really got along with.
Then as you continue to pound beers, one of your friends says he’s leaving and everyone’s like, “Awwww man it was fun while you were here mannnnnnn!”
So you continue to pound drinks and next thing you know you blacked out for 3 hours and all your friends have left and you are surrounded by a bunch of drunk, angry strangers yelling at each other?
Well thats pretty much what happened with me at OFD. With slightly less alcohol.
I wondered where the hell everyone went! Glad I found you!
Irish: 48 (Zaire plays the entire 4th), Puke: 17
Welcome back!
Great metaphor.
I go over there every few days to see what’s going on, but the comments have become abysmal. And judging from the comment numbers, traffic has gone way down. Maybe they’re getting more clicks and eyeballs with the gimmicky headlines and so on, so SBN is happy, but sure seems like “corporate” taking a good thing and ruining it.
I’m so glad the guys moved over here. And we’ve *ALMOST* got full comment functionality worked out!
/comments break
My office. My office. The comments thing occurs in my office, and you get to see it. If we saw things that happen in your office, I’m sure it would be similar. It’s just business as usual in my office.
[secretly fires comments]
This is great. I hope “My office” becomes a meme here.
I was right there with you man. I felt like my best friend had a stroke, and after recovery, was an abusive jerk. That is my take. The comment section has deteriorated into a hybrid of hillybilly, valley girl, inner city slang, and various grunts.
@does this mean the injuries will start now that we have someone to blame?@