Now, we get to the good stuff. Part II of this series looked at potential coaches ranked 16th through 30th and today we zero in on the top 15 overall during the final Part III.
Part I: An Intro (CLICK HERE)
Part II: Coaches #30-16 (CLICK HERE)
Odds are the coach(es) you desire will be discussed here today. Feel free to add your two cents about what you like and dislike about your candidates.
Remember, this isn’t a list where higher ranked candidates are necessarily considered “better” or it’s a situation where we’d stump for hiring the 7th ranked guy over the 13th ranked guy. We’re throwing the grades out there primarily as a platform for further discussion and to get a better idea of the strengths and weaknesses of all the candidates as we scout for the future.
Coaches #15-1
Willie Taggart, USF, 40 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 31, 44, 123
Taggart was on the hot seat even as few as 14 months ago as he was seemingly spinning his wheels at South Florida. Since then, he’s won 17 out of his past 21 games and won a share of the AAC East division title this year. If there’s a bad sign his defenses have been bad (96th, 46th, 100th in S&P+ defense last 3 years) but his offenses have been really flourishing over the past 2 years. Taggart’s come to Jesus moment was 2 years ago when he abandoned his West Coast pro-style scheme for a “Gulf Coast” offense that utilized up-tempo and simple reads for his athletes. It’s paid off as the Bulls finished 2016 with the No. 2 S&P+ offense in the country.
In addition, totaling 72 rushing touchdowns since 2015 should certainly perk the ears of many readers no matter what system you prefer.
Taggart is really young and finishing his 7th season as a head coach. He played at Western Kentucky and helped build the school into a Division I program as an assistant, coordinator, and eventually head coach. Jim Harbaugh brought him with him to Stanford in 2007 (where he stayed for 3 years) which is a good sign. I’m sure Notre Dame would love a coach born in and with deep roots in Florida who has been exposed to a high-level academic situation.
Steven Godfrey recently had a nice profile on Taggart, “Don’t let the smile fool you. Willie Taggart and USF are done being ignored.”
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State, 49 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 22, 40, 75
Yet another coach right in that perfect wheelhouse age for a move to Notre Dame that is currently coaching at his alma mater. Most folks probably don’t think much about Gundy–the hair, the shootouts, the overall Big 12 stench of no defense. His defenses are consistent, at least: 66th, 64th, and 63rd in S&P+ defense the last 3 years. That might cross him off the list for some right away. He’s been in Stillwater a really long time, too. For reference, if the Cowboys win out this year Gundy would have 105 victories. If this were Notre Dame he would’ve just broken Knute Rockne’s school record.
Schedule and the feckless perception of the Big 12 play a part in his resume, I’m sure. Gundy has won at least 8 games in 8 out of the last 9 seasons. He’s won 10+ games 4 times and could add a 5th to his resume (with a 2nd Big 12 title) this year. He’s won a major bowl game, too.
Say what you want about weak schedules, Gundy has 7 seasons inside the F/+ Top 25, with career highs at 3rd (2011) and 8th (2013). At the very least, he’s intriguing. Clearly he’s been punching well above his (recruiting ranking) weight and that can’t be completely explained away by poor competition.
Mark Richt, Miami, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 16, 30, 4
Oh, look! Another coach at his alma mater. Richt is someone worth mentioning and conceivably could be poached with the lack of current prestige in Coral Gables. In reality, he’s settling in for a nice long haul at Miami.
However, despite his recent graying hair Richt looks like he has a good 7 or 8 hard years at the highest level left. His resume is well known: 153 career wins, 8 seasons of at least 10+ wins, a pair of major bowl victories, 7 finishes in the AP Top 10.
If you want to criticize he’s done less with more a bit too often. As successful as he’s been that’s not a great sign for someone who would need to come to Notre Dame and do the opposite at several positions. He’s put up some scary rushing offenses in the past but you could also say he struggles as an offensive coach when he doesn’t have elite pieces at quarterback, running back, etc.
Bryan Harsin, Boise State, 40 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 15, 37, 21
Harsin’s in a bit of a weird spot right now. Obviously, the bar has been set ridiculously high in Boise where losing any games is as foreign to their fan base as any other outside of Tuscaloosa. He’s won 31 games in 3 years and still, he’s catching some heat these days. Boise didn’t even win their division in the Mountain West! They’re only 9-5 in their last 14 conference games, too!
And yet, Harsin is linked to pretty much every big job west of the Mississippi. He’s continued the tradition of efficient and productive offenses (hiccup last year to 54th S&P+ but 13th in 2014 and 10th this year) and there aren’t many coaches who have won a major bowl game at 38 years old.
If he stays at Boise can he maintain the program that’s been (seemingly) on auto-pilot for over a decade? There’s a lot to like about Harsin and for Notre Dame’s purposes it might be beneficial to see him operate at another school first.
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech, 40 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 20, 41, 41
Fuente is a name inside the Top 15 that I’m sort of wondering if I’ve overvalued. In some ways, it feels like he’s one of the biggest flavor of the month candidates and in a few years we’ll look back and wonder, “What were we thinking?” The F/+ didn’t love his final two seasons at Memphis (they actually finished higher, 39th, this year) and you wonder how much he lived off Paxton Lynch being awesome.
But still, it was Memphis and he built them from nothing. And now he’s put together a very solid first season in Blacksburg that featured a division title and a date with Clemson this weekend for the ACC title. He’s also groomed Jerod Evans quickly which means he could have half a decade of great quarterback play under his belt soon.
Moreover, a lot of people were impressed with his demeanor and comportment while visiting South Bend this year. We can pour over numbers and the like but that stuff matters, too. He also talks like someone who isn’t leaving Virginia Tech any time soon but you never know.
Mike MacIntyre, Colorado, 51 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 12, 94, 83
MacIntyre has made major waves this season by taking Colorado to the Pac-12 Championship. That doesn’t even feel right to type. However, this isn’t even his first reclamation project. If you were paying attention (and most of us were not) MacIntyre went from 1-12 in his first year at San Jose State to 10-2 in his 3rd season. The Spartans finished 24th in F/+ that year, too. So that was more than legit. They almost beat Stanford and defeated Navy and BYU, among others.
He’s now working the magic again in Boulder where he suffered through a 2-25 start in Pac-12 play to burst through with a 8-1 record this year. For Notre Dame that’s doubly impressive since he’s done it with defense (10th overall S&P+) more so than just outscoring everyone as is fashionable out West.
MacIntyre has a nice mix of a resume, too. Grew up in a football family in the South, played at two academic-minded schools (Vanderbilt & Georgia Tech), has assistant experience at a couple Power 5 schools, some NFL experience, some coordinator experience, and now 7 seasons as a head coach. You’d like him to be a little younger, though.
Gary Patterson, TCU, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 38, 19, 6
Patterson was a desired candidate by many (including me) when Notre Dame was in the process of replacing Weis back in 2009. At that point, he was just beginning a rampage through the Mountain West that would watch the Horned Frogs go unbeaten in league play for 3 straight years. Then, TCU joined the Big 12 and things changed.
Patterson’s about to finish his 5th season at the Power 5 level, and he’s 10-16 within the Big 12 in 3 of those seasons. Pretty shabby, but he is coming off a 23-3 run with Peach and Alamo Bowl victories for 2014-15. Overall, he has 4 Top 10 seasons in F/+ rankings and one of those has come in the Big 12.
It might be too late. Patterson has been at TCU for nearly 20 years with his coordinator experience tacked on and he’s no spring chicken anymore. He’s also notoriously crabby and would have to go through what some believe too large of an adjustment in so many areas coaching the Irish.
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State, 44 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 64, 16, 13
Finally, someone with connections to Notre Dame! Two graduate seasons in South Bend 16 years ago! From that point forward Mullen followed Urban Meyer everywhere until finally taking the Mississippi State job in 2009.
The biggest question with Mullen is how do you rate overachieving in Starkville but never finishing higher than 4th in the SEC West but once in 8 years? With Dak Prescott as the full-time quarterback the Bulldogs reached some amazing highs for their program’s history. Outside of that it’s been a pretty big bowl of meh.
According to F/+ this 2016 is actually Mullen’s worst of his career. However, he’s been top 40 in F/+ for 6 out of his 8 seasons. That’s actually kind of impressive. Even though he makes nearly $5 million a year this is one SEC coach Notre Dame could realistic bring back up north.
David Shaw, Stanford, 44 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 33, 6, 18
I really, really, really didn’t want to put Shaw on this list. It pains me to do this but he deserves a spot. He’s finishing up his 6th season in Palo Alto and has won at least 8 games in every season. That doesn’t even do his record justice–if Stanford win their bowl game it’ll be Shaw’s 5th season with at least 10 wins.
Shaw’s shown an impeccable ability to save his team from backtracking, too. That has to be super appealing to Notre Dame. At one point in the middle of this season the Cardinal looked legitimately bad and were in the 60’s according to F/+ yet here they are pushing towards a Top 30 finish and if that’s as bad as it gets for Stanford under Shaw well that’s pretty good. He also has 4 finishes inside the F/+ Top 10 in 6 seasons, that’s absurd.
It’s amazing that Shaw is just 44 years old, too. He could be coaching at Stanford no problem for the next 15 years. And that’s the issue for Notre Dame–I’d make the case that pound for pound the Cardinal are Notre Dame’s biggest rival in the here and now and I don’t know what the Irish could throw at Shaw to get him to leave the Farm.
Mark Dantonio, Michigan State, 60 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 65, 9, 11
Out of every coach on this Top 30 list no one had a worse F/+ ranking for 2016 than Dantonio. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of this miraculous run by Michigan State? Perhaps it’s just a window for him to leave for another program?
I’ve been a fan of Dantonio’s style, although I’m not very partial to his offense. It’s the other side of the ball that is worth it. Up until this year the Spartans were on a 5-year run inside the Top 20 in F/+ with Rose and Cotton bowl victories. He’s personified overachieving and doing more with less.
The problem now is that he’s in his 60’s and hasn’t shown any desire to leave East Lansing. Maybe you could argue with Michigan on the rise it’s the right time to leave and try a new challenge. It still feels like he’s going to work at it for a few more years before retiring as a legend at Michigan State.
Tom Herman, Texas, 41 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 19, 26, N/A
Texas didn’t waste any time. Our rankings were created a couple weeks before the end of this season and a lot changed for Tom Herman, including a third loss this season and a quick hiring by the Longhorns. Obviously, we don’t need to spend too much time on him now but he’s been a lightning rod for the past two seasons.
Interestingly, F/+ didn’t love his Houston teams which may be a little bit of a caution for his early tenure in Austin. He did take over a solid culture at Houston where a lot of previous coaches succeeded, too. Still, a 22-4 start to a career at his age with wins over Louisville, Oklahoma, and FSU is damn impressive. People love big game coaches. I tend to side with him becoming something close to a great coach but I’d pull back on him immediately making Texas a playoff-type of team.
Kyle Whittingham, Utah, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 37, 22, 29
I’ve gone this far and I’ll fully admit that after writing and inspecting everything dozens of times I think I may have overrated Whittingham. Here’s the good, he’s won a major bowl game (actually 2, he coached the Fiesta Bowl for Utah after Meyer left in 2004) and has 4 seasons of at least 10 wins. He also tied for the Pac-12 South last year as a sneaky good team.
However, it’s always seemed like Utah hangs their hat on defense and Wittingham has only had a couple of Top 20 S&P+ defenses since joining the Pac-12. On average since 2011 the Utes have finished 32nd in S&P+ defense, that’s okay I guess. What bugged me the most is Wittingham only has one Top 20 finish in F/+ which is kind of shocking. They also stumbled down the stretch this year losing 3 out of their last 4 after looking like the favorites to win the Pac-12 South.
For someone who has been at Utah since 1994 and played college ball in the state at BYU I’m not sure it’s worth wasting much time here. Still, I’ve always liked how Wittingham handles his business, someone talk me back into him as a quality candidate!
Dabo Swinney, Clemson, 46 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 4, 2, 14
The killer of Clemsoning arrives on our list at No. 3 and it’s a really unrealistic chance that Swinney would be packing his bags for South Bend ever. In truth, he probably should’ve been included on the list with Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh, and Fisher as the untouchables. Dabo has only been at two schools (Alabama & Clemson) since 1989 and is the unofficial next head coach of the Crimson Tide.
I’m just a big fan of this guy–smarter than he’s given credit, surrounded by excellent assistants, and dresses like a football coach should dress. Swinney’s been on a frightening tear, too. Now in his 6th straight season with at least 10 wins–and barring an upset in the ACC Title Game–a second straight trip to the playoffs.
Interestingly, F/+ didn’t love Swinney’s first 5 seasons at Clemson where he averaged 30th nationally with a season-high of 19th overall in 2009. Since 2013, he’s been inside the Top 16 every season and seemingly getting stronger. It’ll be interesting to see how things move along without Deshaun Watson next year.
Bob Stoops, Oklahoma, 56 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 14, 4, 19
Stoops coming to Notre Dame has become such a running joke in recent years that maybe we’ve reached the point where it’s going to double back and actually happen? There are folks who will swear Stoops was this close to taking over the Irish back in late 2009 and whenever this job opens up again there will be rumors yet again.
On the surface, it doesn’t make much sense. A former Iowa defensive back with a bronze legacy at a Top 10 program should come to Notre Dame because he’s Catholic and from Ohio, or something?
Stoops won his only National Championship when Bob Davie was still coaching Notre Dame but you’d have to be crazy to not want him in South Bend. At least 8 wins in every season since his inaugural campaign in Norman. Ten finishes in the Top 10 of the polls. Four major bowl wins. A possibility this weekend for his 14th season with at least 10 wins.
Stoops age probably isn’t a huge factor, but he comes with a lot of mileage (188 wins!) and there’d be some serious questions about his ability to adapt to Notre Dame with no JUCO’s and a no reliance on majors such as health and exercise science and human relations. His defenses with brother Mike Stoops have been pretty shaky and who knows if OC Lincoln Riley would come with him and how Air Raid-y things would get at a new home in the Midwest.
Chris Petersen, Washington, 52 years old
3-year F/+ Ranks: 5, 13, 58
This is the right man for the job. He checks off most of the boxes you’re looking for especially with his success at Boise State (92-12 overall record have mercy) and now quickly rebuilding Washington where he has the chance to win the school’s first conference title since 2000 and enter the College Football Playoff.
In terms of F/+ Petersen is putting together his 7th season inside the Top 15 and if his current position holds it’ll be his 3rd top 5 finish. He’s won 2 major bowl games and has plenty of experience on the big stage.
I’d go so far as to say Petersen is the best fit for Notre Dame since Lou Holtz. Many folks agree he was the brains behind Boise State’s rise to prominence under Dan Hawkins and took the program to its greatest heights once he became head coach. He’s also outstanding at developing talent (obviously at Boise) and he’s doing it again at Washington where he doesn’t have a plethora of raw talent (29th, 27th, and 37th ranked recruiting classes) and is a top 5 team this year.
Seemingly always clever offenses that run the ball a lot and are efficient behind smart quarterback play. A long history with Pete Kwiatkowski who has led several tremendous defenses throughout his association with Petersen. Sign me up for all of this.
Petersen’s youngest son Sam was diagnosed with a brain tumor that spread to his spine when he was 1-year old back in the late 1990’s but thankfully his health has recovered today. The more pressing issues now are that Petersen (except a lone year at Pitt in ’92) has lived his entire life west of the Rockies, he’s notoriously shy of the spotlight, and of course Washington is in a great position to keep him long-term–he was extended through 2020 for $4 million per year just over a year ago and is in the process of negotiating a new 10-year deal that is reportedly going to push toward $5 million per year which would make him by far the highest paid Pac-12 coach.
He’s still my first, second, and third phone call and I’d be doing everything in my power to convince him to come to Notre Dame for 2018 after his current crop of sensational sophomores declare early for the NFL.
Give Me Odds!
Of course everyone interested in Notre Dame is wondering what the heck is going on with the future of Brian Kelly. In all likelihood Kelly will be getting another season and that’s kind of been the assumption with this series. Perhaps there will be some breaking news after this weekend where 14 out of this Top 30 list are participating in their final regular season game or conference championship. But it’s unlikely.
Fleck 14/1
Taggart 13/1
Rhule 8/1
MacIntyre 5/1
With a gun to my head–with either a decision coming soon or likely next year–these are the odds I’d put at this very moment on the next Irish head coach.
A lot of people are being drawn to Fleck’s personality and I’m okay with that. He’s still such a wildcard in age, experience, and temperament that I have an extremely hard time seeing Notre Dame jumping for that kind of guy. I just can’t see Swarbrick being too enamored with him and I really can’t see the powers above him truly clamoring for him, either. Plus, will we take another undefeated non-Power 5 coach and rip him away from his bowl game? Alternatively, what can Fleck prove with another year at Western Michigan? And if he finds another job this off-season is it big enough to prove anything in one year? Now seems like a good time to strike but I bet the Irish won’t pull that trigger.
Taggart comes off as a much more acceptable choice in comparison’s to what is going to be perceived as Fleck’s immaturity. In recent days, Taggart has been heavily linked to the Oregon job and if he were to take that we can likely cross him off the list at Notre Dame. He feels like someone who wouldn’t be picked right now but with another strong season at USF he’s going to be right in the thick of things next off-season.
I view Rhule as the pretty safe but not very glamorous hire. If things are really as bad as some of the rumors and Notre Dame will need to find a new head coach within a matter of days I’m certain he’ll be a finalist.
Overall, it’s MacIntyre that makes the most sense. Unlike the others, he’s at a Power 5 program and he’s proven he can greatly overachieve given his surroundings. He even looks like a Notre Dame coach, if you know what I mean. You have to wonder if he can sustain success and really perform against the big dogs but he’s in prime spot to poach. His base salary is $2 million and it’s unlikely Colorado dishes out an obscene amount of money to keep him around.
If MacIntyre stays at Colorado for next season they are well positioned to win a lot of games due to a cupcake out of conference lineup with USC and Washington at home. At minimum, his stock should stay fairly high either this off-season or next.
I was ready to come at you, but this is all pretty reasonable. MacIntyre is a guy I could see ND getting, and I wouldn’t be upset at all. Good stuff.
Why ready to come at me? I’m a nice guy!
I would love MacIntyre here. He’s probably the most realistic candidate I can say that about.
Eric, you’re right about Matt Rhule not being a splashy hire, but I’d be ecstatic if Swarbrick and the “powers that be” made him their choice. He has a core philosophy of playing that junk yard type of defense while emphasizing the running game — a scheme I feel a good majority of the ND fan base would be pleased with.
Having said that, my dream choice — as is yours — is Chris Petersen. I’d absolutely love to have him, but something tells me no amount of money or the prestige of Notre Dame could lure him away from the Pacific Northwest.
Ecstatic, huh? I just couldn’t quite get there with Rhule but I’ll be naturally suspicious of any defensive head coach because there’s so few of them succeeding at the highest level.
Fantastic, fantastic work.
Totally agree that Peterson is the clear #1 choice. Unfortunately agree that the “realistic” score for him has to be pretty low.
Most interesting thing to me on this list is how highly Dan Mullen scores here. I don’t even disagree with any of the particular scores you gave him, but he seems like a “the whole is more meh than the sum of the parts” kind of hire. For example, if we were hiring this year, I’d rather go get Mike MacIntyre; that would definitely generate more buzz and excitement around the program.
Now on to a few minor points of contention with the scoring:
– Most importantly, I think you significantly underrate the prospect that Whittingham would leave Utah (i.e., the “realistic” score is too low there). Two years ago there was a ton of rumblings that he was unhappy – http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/12/27/7454911/kyle-whittingham-utah-football-coach and http://www.sltrib.com/sports/1992784-155/monson-whittingham-will-leave-utah-i. While he got an extension and stayed, it’s unclear that has been entirely resolved. If Petersen will not come, if I were Swarbrick my second call (or fourth, if the first three were to Peterson) would be to Whittingham. And I think he very well may come.
– I think the ceiling on Willie Taggert is way too low. I think he and Fleck probably are the highest-variance potential hires – i.e., they could be total duds, or they could be top-5 coaches if provided the resources of a top-tier program.
– While Fuente seems happy at Virginia Tech, I think he would be worth kicking the tires on (in the event that Petersen/Whittingham/Stoops/MacIntyre all pass) – i.e., I think the realistic score may be a bit low. While VaTech is a good job, it’s not Notre Dame; he hasn’t been at VaTech for long enough to be certain he wouldn’t leave.
– How in the world does David Shaw have such a low scheme score?
Ask Stanford Fan, who has been griping about his unimaginative play-calling and much-too-clever formations. Remember our game against them last year? He did some weird thing where he switched centers for short yardage plays, and they fumbled the snap twice as a result. Or how about the 2012 game, when in overtime he just ran into the middle of the line four times? He’s shown that at some critical junctures, he’s either going to straight #MANBALL you regardless of the evident futility or do something stupid to prove how much smarter he is.
Obviously his offense has been effective more often than not, and his overall results have been very good. But his offensive scheme does indeed leave something to be desired. Don’t be misled by the fact that he put up 38 against a Brian VanGorder defense, or fall into the “He runs the ball! I love him!” trap.
Also, want to be careful for speaking for Eric too much here, but I believe that, like me, he’s not a huge fan of #MANBALL. A power running game is fine, #MANBALL, not so much.
Doesn’t that statement at least somewhat swallow the rest of the argument? Or, at least, get him out of the .1 land? Eric said in the intro point that scheme score is for “coaches who have displayed an ability to teach their system and consistently produce on at least one side of the ball”; it seems to me that Shaw meets that standard – or, at the very least, is average on that point; in any case nowhere near the bottom – whether or not you like the system for ND (reasonable minds may vary on that point, I’d say).
In any case, I think it’s a mostly moot point: Shaw is not coming to ND, regardless of whether the administration wants him or not.
Shaw gets duly penalized for Shawface.
I was very surprised to see how young he is. While I would love it if Shaw were our next coach, I hate that we could have to watch that smug face at Stanford for the next 15+ years.
I think he’s pretty clearly not much of a scheme guy on offense. Maybe he’s not 0.1 bad because he’s done well enough when he has the talent to work with.
But then you have a year like this one where despite a Heisman candidate there wasn’t much talent around as they finished 70th in S&P offense. That might be the worst offense of anyone on the top 30.
I don’t think it swallows the argument because I think his offense has been successful in spite of his scheme, not because of it. I think it’s been successful largely because they have great offensive lines and talented running backs who are able to overcome his unimaginative/overly-cute scheme. Harbaugh, for example, runs a much more creative version of manball. Still I-form with lots of play action, etc., but he’s a lot better at mixing in wrinkles to keep defenses off balance.
There’s creativity of a sort with Shaw, but it’s with things that don’t matter or are just flat bad ideas – like using eight or nine offensive linemen or choosing to switch the center out on short yardage. On purpose! One of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen. But when it comes to constructing sequences of plays and adjusting on the fly, he’s not that good at it.
Like Eric says, maybe a 0.1 is low, but I wouldn’t go above 0.3.
He didn’t make your list, perhaps because he is a current assistant, but I think Greg Schiano did great things at Rutgers as a HC and would be a reasonable fit. Run oriented offense plus good defense.
Reasonable I guess. He doesn’t move the needle much for me personally but he’d be on this somewhere I suppose.
I only have superficial knowledge of his resume.
Thanks for the list. I also think that Kelly is 95%+ likely to stay.
Meh. I’m with E on Schiano. He really had one very good year at Rutgers, when he went 11-2 in 2006 with out-of-conference wins over North Carolina and Illinois and a bowl game beatdown of Kansas State in Ron Prince’s first year there after Bill Snyder 1.0 left. The rest was a big bowl of mediocre, and overall there he was one game over .500 across 11 seasons. I know Rutgers is a tough job, but so are other tough jobs in other comparable conferences to the 2000’s-era Big East, and other guys have had more consistent success.
And of course, there’s also the disastrous tenure in Tampa. I know, I know, plenty of failed NFL coaches do just fine in a return to college ball, like Holtz and Spurrier. But lump of all that together and he just doesn’t excite me much. He would be OK, I guess, but he’s definitely a retread and I feel like there are several better options out there.
Schiano would suck. His past shows that the culture he builds is repugnant, he’s an abrasive autocrat. I am not a fan and would hope that no “Schiano men” are coming through Notre Dame since it’s pretty counter to what the University is and esteems to be.
He’s not a bad candidate to list and rumors say he’s in the mix for the Oregon job, but his personality/attitude makes it a hard pass for me.
I’d trade out Kelly for McIntyre right now.
(Inhales) Ah, yeah. Fresh, unfiltered coaching speculation.
Great list. I was surprised that Rhule and Fleck didn’t make the top 15 but hard to argue with these names. I’d disagree with Shaw having such a low “fit” score. Can’t stand the guy, but he’s done well at another school with good academics.
Picking my top three (and tightening the “realistic” filter just a bit), I’d go Petersen, MacIntyre, Rhule. I can’t see the older guys/dudes at their alma maters leaving. Petersen’s a dream hire and you never know where he might want to end up ultimately. McIntyre has had success rebuilding two programs to 10 win seasons. He has a senior-heavy team and may want to move up now but I’d even take him after an 8-4/9-3 run next year. Rhule’s a good-but-not-great fallback plan and I could see myself jumping on board the Fuente train after next season.
I think Shaw would struggle in the ND fish bowl. I’m not real convinced his day-to-day activities are ever really part of the academics at Stanford. He’d be comfortable dealing with it in recruiting but on the Farm things are so chill, there’s never any “problems” with eligibility, and it’s such a different vibe.
That’s what makes the ND jobs so unique. Even if you’re coming from an academic background like Stanford you still need to adjust to things a little bit in recruiting and deal with a lot more problems off the field through the media.
I really like the last four guys mentioned in the odds, provided there isn’t unexpected interest from some of the bigger names that seem unrealistic. Agree on Petersen being #1 as well, and for me it’s not particularly close.
I’ve gone back and forth over the last few weeks and I think my order for those would be 1) MacIntyre, 2) Rhule, 3) Taggart, 4) Fleck. I worry a little bit that Rhule is Al Golden 2.0 and that Temple is a secretly decent job now, but he’s punched so far above his talent level with the defense there. I have him and Taggart as almost equal, but given recent recruiting efforts, I think it’s a bigger need at ND develop and scheme on defense versus offense, where we have consistently been able to recruit QB/OL/skill positions at a high level. That does make Taggart really appealing though – I’d love to see his offense at ND.
Are there really rumors still floating out there that Kelly may leave / be axed in the coming week or two? That seems extremely unlikely unless an NFL team is somehow still enamored with him or Swarbrick is just waiting on a different HC to finish their season.
Pretty sure those rumors only exist within the ND fan base, as people overparse literal nothingness to mean whatever they want it to mean. I’ve seen plenty of outrageous stuff that I’m not going to repeat here because it’s just too silly. I wouldn’t rule anything out at this point, but just based on what I think is a reasonable read of the situation I’d say with about 95% confidence that Kelly will keep his job. Jack hasn’t done anything out of the ordinary yet, and neither has Kelly. The conspiracy theories are just so much wishful thinking.
@Where would Kevin Wilson rank on your list? He has to be tops in availability now!@
You jest, but people on other boards are wondering if he can be brought in as our new OC. Uhh…
I’m fairly certain there’s a typo in the coaching write up for Mike Gundy because I’m quite sure that he’s 40 years old, not 49.
Also, I could live with McIntyre, that’s fine. A best to worst case scenario for the next couple weeks of Kelly retained, McIntyre hired, Rhule hired actually seems fine to me.
Can we just put his age down as “man?”
This immediately triggers the following sequence: “Players tell me they want to be happy, I tell them, ‘You wanna be happy for a day? Eat a steak! It’s that WOO WOO!”
Thanks for the brainwashing Dan and Ty.
Gundy’s Wiki lists his birthdate as Aug 12, 1967…so 49.
Ah, i guess i never bothered to pay any attention to him.
I think the odds you lay out on all the people are pretty much right.
Shaw is also at his alma mater so I don’t view him as realistic. I tend to doubt Peterson will leave the Northwest, while I agree he would probably be the first truly realistic choice (I don’t think Stoops is realistic either).
I also tend to think Fuente is not realistic. There were a lot of articles when VT hired him around here, and in many of them he commented that he had other opportunities (certainly true he was linked to nearly every job), but that he liked the small town lifestyle in Blacksburg. I don’t see him wanting the ND pressure cooker. Also, in Blacksburg, with the way the ACC lays out, he really only has to beat UNC every year to have a legit shot at making the championship game every year. Something to be said for that.
I would rather take McIntyre over Rhule, really simply because of quality of opponents. While his resume is very similar to Kelly SJSU=CMU and UC is only slightly > than the other UC, McIntyre has coached for others besides himself. It is one of the reasons I don’t want a Clawson, who did not make your list. Also, unlike Fuente, McIntyre will have to compete with USC, and once they get rid of Mora, UCLA in the Pac-12 South, not to mention the Arizonas if they ever get their acts together.
The one criteria that was always a little vague to me in your analysis was scheme. What scheme got the top score? Prostyle pass? spread? was it just success? Did defense factor in? Just curious.
For scheme I went with the background for the coach and then how well they’ve succeeded with that side of the ball, how involved they are with it, and how respected they are as a X’s and O’s type of coach.
Petrino, Herman, and Malzahn got the highest scores.
NDNation’s view of the odds:
John Harbaugh: Even
Bill O’Brien: Even
Mike Tomlin: Even
Bob Stoops: Even
Nick Saban: 5-1, but we should throw a boatload of money at him, and when we do –> Even
please tell me you are writing this as satire.
Any hires not on this list of five are small-timey.
Why no Belichek?
“Not classy enough…have you seen the cut off sweatshirts? Also, too close of association with Weis.”
ell oh ell
HE’S A CHEATER
This list is so bogus.
Urban Meyer isn’t even on it.
Oh he’s the fallback candidate. After all, he said ND is his dream job.
One other notable omission…
THIS GUY.
He has been out of the game for too long. Should go with Saban or O’Brien. Safer.
Honestly, peeking in there every once in a while really helps me get through a tough season.
One of my favorite recent discussions was “When did you give up on Kelly?”. Such a great race to the bottom to see who was the biggest hater. The winner: Cincinnati’s close win at Hawaii in 2008. The poster apparently decided then that BK would never work out at Notre Dame, two seasons before he even made it to South Bend.
If NDNation is your schadenfreude outlet, now’s the time to go – it’s currently in full-on meltdown mode over Swarbrick’s supportive comments about Kelly on his radio show today.
Did you install Windows 3.1 just so you could read their Geocities-esque site?
Help Us Find the Bad Ads!
John Harbaugh is a DEVOUT Catholic.
(End list of why he’d coach at Notre Dame)
In all seriousness, John Harbaugh is the clear NDNation favorite right now. And if we can’t get him, we move to Bill O’Brien. And I have seen Mike Tomlin suggested in a non-ironic way.
Rhule and Fleck would be way too small-timey for them, and I really can’t tell how they’d feel about MacIntyre.
Their utter insanity about what kind of job ND is and who it might interest really bothers me, in no small part because I basically agree with them that Kelly has fully earned a pink slip (i.e., my agreeing with them on one point while otherwise recognizing their general insanity is the only thing that really makes me question whether Kelly should be fired). I appreciate the rational approach to who might be the next coach that has gone on here, even while pretty strongly disagreeing with the majority of the commentariat about whether or not Kelly should be the coach next year.
Exactly. Its one thing to want to move on after seven years and a 4-8 season, but its been the same anger over there since 2010. The wish list has remained basically the same as well.
So what are you saying is that posters at NDNation knew in 2010 that Kelly was not going to work out? And that is supposed to be a criticism of them?
You got me, we should’ve fired Kelly two years before he coached the team to 12-0 and a spot in the National Championship.
Maybe if he had taken the Eagles job like he wanted to we’d be in a better position today.
Call me when he wins a NY6 bowl game. We’re entering year 8 and still waiting.
Wow, way to go NDN!
For a place that jerks off about standards that’s quite the low bar to set in order to be “right” about a coach.
I hardly post here because there is not much I can contribute or dispute. almost all the posts are rational. But I’m a member at 247 and I somehow let myself get sucked in over there. So many ridiculous comments there I just can’t let them slide.
Today a dude said, “his ceiling is 5-7 or 6-6, and if you’re ok with that, fine but I’m not”. umm does this dude know what ceiling means
247 has gotten bad lately. I was tolerating Evan Sharpley’s ridiculous style but the awful comments have got me checking out Irish Sports Daily. Some good stuff there.
His average is 8-5. His ceiling is 12-1 and a bowl embarrassment. His floor is…well, we’ve just hit it.
He is an 8-5 coach. And unlike this year, we have to play a real schedule next year.
“And unlike this year, we have to play a real schedule next year.”
You sure about that?
Opponents on both 2016 & 2017 schedules: USC, Stanford, NC State, Michigan State, Navy, Miami. You can argue if these get better or worse, and we flip home/away, but bottom line they’re the same opponents.
2016 remainder: Texas, Nevada, Duke, Syracuse, Army, Virginia Tech.
2017 remainder: Temple, Georgia, BC, Miami (OH), UNC, Wake Forest
I’d call Army & Miami (OH) even, Wake and Syracuse even, BC and Nevada evenish. VT beats out UNC as the “best” of each year, though Temple and a very average UGA are better than Texas and Duke. It’s pretty close to a push, so if this year wasn’t a “real schedule” than next year shouldn’t count as one either.
Also, Senior Day we play Navy. Because we’re idiots.
I’m pretty sure next year’s schedule is going to be harder than this year’s. FEI has ND’s schedule as 57th in the country, which is pretty weak (the worst of the Kelly era, though we were 54th in 2014 and there is room for improvement – or further worsening – during bowl season, so we’ll see if this finishes out as the worst).
I don’t think that it’s right to blindly say the teams will be about the same next year that they were this year. USC will be similar or better next year, methinks – Ronald Jones started getting ridiculous towards the end of the year and will be back, plus Darnold is just going to get more experience.
Stanford will also be better next year – the only key pieces they lose who played in the game this year are Rector and Solomon Thomas, which reminds me that we lost to them at home without McCaffrey, and 🙁
W/r/t UNC, we need to hope Trubisky and Elijah Hood go pro, or they might score 60 on us. If they’re still on the team, I think they might actually be comparable or perhaps even better than VaTech was this year (though, to be honest, I have no idea about whether their defense will be any good and am too lazy to research right now).
Michigan State has to be better than the crap team they were this year (right?).
Georgia next year will probably be comparable to VaTech this year (UGA was super young this year, and if Sony Michel or Chubb stay in school, they should be fine offensively).
AND we play two more true road games next year than the three we played this year. This year’s schedule was a very badly missed opportunity.
I think it’s very possible, perhaps even likely, that we come out of the first four games 2-2 next year. If that happens with Kelly still as the coach and they don’t fire him at that point, the atmosphere around the program is going to be awful.
Yeah, sorry, still see it as a push. The post I replied to called this next year’s schedule “real,” implying this year’s was not. Next year’s may be slightly better, but they’re in the same general bracket. If we assume MSU cannot be as bad as they were this year, then hypothetically we cannot be as bad as this year either. Yet you have us firing Kelly mid-season already. I think we could win 10 games against that schedule and it not really be an indicator of significant structural improvement at all.
That’s why I hate setting the standard as number of wins, rather than quality of play. You can still be average and luck into 10 wins against a crap schedule. If we need a last second td to beat Temple, scrape by BC…then it will be the same blowout loss in a bowl as ever. I realize it makes me sound like a harrumpher to be all “well the schedule is crap so even if we win 10 games Fire Kelly” but against that (or this year’s) schedule we should be able to show separation in games from bad opponents. We never do that. And this year, even when we went up big, we let teams back in, and lost. So while on the bright side most of our games were close this year and we “could” have won if a bounce or two had gone our way, the fact that we have to say that about games against Duke or Texas or this year’s Michigan State or Navy is ridiculous. Would it have meant we were “good” this year to beat those teams by 1 or 2? Sure, even tOSU plays down to opponents on occasion, but we do it so consistently that it’s hard for me to count simply wins or losses as indicators of quality. Beat bad teams decisively, pull out close wins against the USCs or Stanfords on the schedule, and we’ll have taken a major step forward.
I see 2-2 not because I know where the two Ls are coming from, but because I think there are 3.5 (depending on how you feel about BC) lose-able games. Temple should be down a bit, but they were a better team than ND this year (even in S&P+). MSU should be up, though hopefully not as good as ND. Georgia will definitely be up. And BC is a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
So 3-1 or 2-2 seem pretty likely, with 2-2 probably the likeliest record (not majority but plurality), IMO.
This year has lost Kelly the right to play the “quality of play > number of wins” card. 10 wins minimum next year or he has to be fired.
That said, I don’t expect any of this to matter any more than the hilarious “what if we win out?” speculation after the losses to Texas and MSU. If history is any indication, we’ll be the usual 8-5 next year, with the usual parade of excuses used to justify it.
I’m not suggesting any “quality of play” card gives Kelly a pass.
In fact, in both 2012 and 2015, “quality of play” would have been a horrible indictment of Kelly, despite the good records. Despite 12-0, squeaking by Purdue, BYU, and Pitt make an effective case that our destruction by Bama should have been expected. Likewise, last year having to skate by BC, UVA, and Temple indicate to me that the story was “lucky to be 10-2” and not “only X points from 12-0.” I can forgive one sub-par, “lookahead/letdown” performance where we play down but win, but these are consistent trends over even Kelly’s good seasons. Would we really be THAT much better a team if we’d scored 4 more points each against Texas, Duke, Navy, and VT to win those games? 8-4 looks better than 4-8, for sure, but we’re still pretty even with those teams (though at least VT is respectable at a national level).
Against a mediocre schedule next year, “10 wins minimum” doesn’t mean anything if we’re getting those wins by beating BC by 2 because of a lucky bounce, NC State on a goal line stand, Navy on a field goal at the buzzer, Temple in a close one, etc. In my mind, Kelly’s BIGGEST mistake is assuming that because he was winning games (particularly last year), then everything was fine, he didn’t need to dump BVG, didn’t need to make adjustments to the offense, they just “needed to do the same things a little bit better” (Gee, have we heard that recently?)
If you set 10 wins as “the minimum,” would you be happy if we do it by escaping bad teams? Would that really be better than being 9-3, smoking the bad teams, and losing close to Pac12 Title participants Stanford and USC and maybe a resurgent Georgia at the bell? I fully grant that I’m almost as equally frustrated by our inability to beat teams of equal or greater talent (unless head-coached by Kiffin), but that’s a problem we can only solve after we stop losing/playing close with mediocre/bad teams.
While it would be hard to fire Kelly next year if he won 10 games (and I”m not actually suggesting I would advocate it), I also wouldn’t be confident that anything has changed and we’ve gotten better unless the quality of play demonstrates such. Matter of fact, if we squeak out 10 games against that mediocre schedule, I might be more despondent, as we’ll be on the same treadmill loop. There are two acceptable outcomes to me: win games against mediocre teams decisively and beat someone we’re not “supposed” to beat, or be fired. Whatever combination of wins and losses that may be depends on how the opponents next season shake out. If Richt turns Miami into the 2000 ‘Canes, then I won’t feel bad about losing to them. If on the other hand they’re the Randy Shannon version, I’ll be livid if we play like crap and win by 2.
This made me laugh so hard. And good job to the commentariat making sure Gruden was on there.
So, doesn’t look like the playoff committee is going to have to wait to announce the Group of 5 bid. On the other hand, we’re getting proof that Matt Ruhle can beat Navy!
Well, the good news is that maybe we can save on plane costs by hiring Rhule while he’s still in South Bend after they win in the opener next year.
Pardon if this has been discussed somewhere else/earlier, but why does the top banner image change colors?
It’s all that mary juwana that BK hands out to the team.
We’re in the process of converting the blog into covering the Denver Nuggets.
Ahhh, yes. All-LaPhonso Ellis all-the-time type of place?
Corey Holmes transferring. A loss for the team, but the coaches probably don’t think it’s a huge one based on their personnel decisions. He got some targets and made some catches toward the end of the year. We were lacking in production from the slot. Wish him luck.
I know this site focuses on the in depth stuff which I love. But I also appreciate heads-up on these kind of major news stories because I try to make this the only ND site I check in on. While I dread the banner of doom, it did serve a helpful purpose.
LMFTFY….He got some targets and made some catches, HAD SOME DROPS, toward the end of the year.
So we now live in a world where James Franklin has a bigger win than Brian Kelly 🙁
That happened on 10/22/16 not tonight.
I could see an argument that Oklahoma 2012 was a bigger win than the Ohio State game, but I take the point.
So, question. If ND somehow went nuts – say all the nuns broke into the communion supply closet – and said, “we will pay up to $6 million a year for Chris Petersen,” would it matter?
Disclaimer: I live in Seattle, and I doubt Petersen even takes the call because he’s happy at Washington and can get a nice raise as it is, but I wonder if there’s a number that gets his attention.
And I wonder whether TONS of cash would get even the untouchables to listen.
I have no expectation that ND ever sets the new benchmark like Michigan did with Harbaugh, but I guess my question is, “is this really all about money?” or “could ND get anyone it wanted if it ponied up a few million more than it wants to pay right now?”
I don’t think money plays much of a role, sadly.
No, because Peterson’s in the playoffs. No coach is leaving that situation and if ND were to make a switch, it would have to be sooner than the first week of January. God forbid a change were to happen, any playoff coaches would be off the board. (Provided any were hypothetically on it)
Let’s pretend that Notre Dame would be willing to set the bar on coach salary, which (a) they would never do and (b) I’m not sure it’s appropriate for them to do, but that’s another discussion. So let’s just pretend.
My main problem with the “back up the Brinks truck” angle is that we’re not operating in a vacuum. Put another way, our Brinks truck is not the only one in the neighborhood. We can’t snag Urban Meyer by offering him 5% more, than what Ohio State is paying, because Ohio State will just grab an extra 10% from their truck, and so on. So we can’t just throw a number out there and get a guy, because going after any of those elite guys is going to trigger a bidding war.
On top of that, we couldn’t even set the platform a mere 5% higher – we’d probably have to do something like 25% higher or more as a starting point to get the guy to listen. The coaching industry in general absolutely views Notre Dame as a harder place to win; to believe otherwise is to have your head in the sand. To overcome that, we would need not just to overpay, but to overpay dramatically.
The best course is to offer fair market salary to a guy who has shown potential. There is absolutely, positively no way ever that Meyer, Saban, or Harbaugh will come to South Bend, no matter how many Brinks trucks we send out. Petersen is probably the best option in Tier 1A, but why on earth would he leave Washington? He’s happy, he hates the spotlight, and he has spent his entire life in the Northwest. And why would Washington let him go, unless we gave him an albatross contract to draw him away? He seems like a relatively sure thing, but you never know – do we really want to be stuck in a Kirk Ferentz situation? Common sense has to be a part of the money discussion.
Is it just me, or does that sound like the latest bestseller from . . .
?
Dang! Sorry about the image height. Is there a way to adjust that?
Your top 25-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish – http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
America is already great.
Let’s look at all the final S&P ranks under Kelly, compared with our record and final AP poll ranks:
2010: S&P 7th; record of 8-5; not ranked in final AP poll
2011: S&P 11th; record of 8-5; not ranked in final AP poll
2012: S&P 5th; record of 12-1; 4th in final AP poll
2013: S&P 34th; record of 9-4; 20th in final AP poll
2014: S&P 27th; record of 8-5; not ranked in final AP poll
2015: S&P 8th; record of 10-3; 11th in final AP poll
2016: S&P 25th; record of 4-8; not ranked in final AP poll
So we’ve had an AP rank below our S&P rank in 5 out of 7 seasons under Kelly. We consistently underperform. I guess bad luck just follows him?
It’s not as if S&P is less dependent on coaching than the AP rank. Kelly is as responsible for the S&P rank as he is the AP rank. Average recruiting rank v. either S&P or AP rank would be more indicative of how well Kelly is coaching up the talent. We could talk about the differences between S&P and AP rank but that’s not about coaching as much as it is about how good we actually are v. how good we are perceived to be.
I think there is something to be said for Kelly’s teams generally not living up to their S&P+ rankings – that is, Kelly makes poor in-game decisions that cost the team close games (e.g., his seemingly random goings for 2, not understanding that a sure-thing 12-point lead is way way better than a shot at a 13-point lead against Northwestern, the end of the Tulsa game, etc.). As a more recent example, S&P+ thinks we should have won the Navy game based on the drive data, but nope sure didn’t thanks in no small part to some exquisitely bad coaching decisions at the end of the game.
A few thoughts:
1) Coaching can defnitely play a role, but S&P+ is play-based and not drive-based, which FEI is (and as a result ranks ND less favorably over most of the past few years). FEI also weights more heavily your performances against top teams than your performances against lesser opponents, where ND has come up just short many times under BK
2) Close losses will get you dropped immediately in the AP Poll, but S&P+ is agnostic of W-L. Losing tight games to good programs, or really blowing out mediocre to bad teams – those are all weighted equally. And if you are a possession away from beating Clemson, or in the case of this year’s team, on a play by play basis play USC pretty tight (special teams is lightly weighted because it in theory shouldn’t have an inordinate impact) then S&P+ is impressed while voters are not.
3) Turnovers are a small piece of S&P+ because of a team’s limited ability to control their luck (recovering fumbles and how many deflections turn into picks). In the BK era ND has consistently had bad “turnover luck”, turned it over in the red zone (which S&P+ may not fully capture the weight of), and forced very few turnovers. So that’s another factor where the W-L don’t match up with S&P+, and the reality is somewhere in between.
4) Neither here nor there, but a lot of talented teams have similar trends (Ole Miss, LSU, USC) in S&P+. Like ND, they usually have a pretty hard SOS, lose a lot of one possession games, or are inconsistent with some let-downs mixed in with performances where their talent does what it’s supposed to do.
Good info/perspective – thanks!
Great article, Eric. I am on the Petersen train, but recognizing how happy he is (I think – I mean who knows?) I appreciate the more exhaustive review of the options you provided. I am trying not to totally give up on next season for Kelly, but yeah, I think I’m there and this is a nice little slice of hope.
Can I ask for a little more detail on Petrino (I WANT TO WIN!)? He’s an amazing coach and I’d be very happy if we had him. Specifically:
1) What are the chances the university says, “Petrino has made mistakes but learned his lesson. Let’s move past the motorcycle accident?” Feel free to apply this probability to other candidates with possible baggage, such as Fleck. I understand that you don’t want to hire a guy who’s going to embarrass you, but if you think he’s evolved, I would take that chance in a heartbeat.
2) What are the chances that – if we offered – Petrino would come?
I’m basically interested in the decomposition of low probability scores. This way, when we don’t get Petrino, I can know exactly who to blame.
Considering the questions this year about spying on/stealing playbooks from Wake Forest, I think the chances our admin looks at Petrino are between “slim” and “none”.
I was working through some things with Petrino behind the scenes when talking it over with our writers. Do I think ND could get over his past transgressions? Yup, if they really wanted to I think they could. Were his transgressions really THAT bad? Eh, I’m more forgiving than others maybe.
But, I don’t know how they could square away his character issues with him coaching at relatively lawless schools (lots and lots of JUCO’s, transfers, and “rougher” kids). It just feels like too much. I think we sometimes overrate “would a coach fit?” and I’d probably fall in line that Petrino just wouldn’t work out at Notre Dame.
Had a random thought this weekend and I think this is the best spot for it. Eight months ago, the UCLA fanbase hated Steve Alford. Hated him. Had mobile billboards, took out websites against him, had airplane banners, and way more – the “Fire Alford” section of their SBNation site is a great example of obsessive vitriol. Fast forward to this weekend, they took down Kentucky, are undefeated at 9-0, and are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Sure, Lonzo Ball, but Lonzo Ball had mixed reviews as a prospect. Besides, just look at LSU last season with Ben Simmons – a talented freshman doesn’t immediately turn you into a top 5 team. The truth is that Steve Alford is a good coach. He was New Mexico’s coach while I was there and produced a consistently solid team. Some years were better than others, but they were consistently a notch above where they were with the coach that proceeded him and followed him. The other part of the truth is that UCLA fans were ridiculously delusional. In the college basketball landscape, UCLA is just another school. They’re not among the Kentucky, UNC, Duke, Kansas tier. More along the next level. You’re not surprised to see them have a top 10 season, but it’s also not a huge shock to see them have a down year too. Had the mouth-foamers won out, Lonzo Ball might be doing his thing elsewhere and UCLA would be mediocre yet again. Reminiscent of Indiana, a similar program with deluded fans that wanted Tom Crean fired for a couple of mediocre seasons after completely turning around the program. Those same fans ran Mike Davis out of town after he took them to a championship appearance. IU was one of the top landing spots for a pair of Lawrence North kids in 2006, the year Davis was fired – Greg Oden and Mike Conley. Instead they went to OSU, went 35-4, and made the title game. I’ve always wondered what would have happened there if the fanbase rallied around Davis, giving Oden and Conley the confidence in the coaching situation to sign on with their one and done – teaming them with D.J. White, Rod Wilmont, and Robert Vaden. Instead Indiana went with Kelvin Sampson, who wound up burning the program to the ground. The point here is that it’s not always easy to land a talented coach. And there’s value to continuity and building a program. That’s not to say coaches shouldn’t ever be fired. But folks going for change for the sake of change might as well use a treadmill for their primary form of transportation. It’s the same thing. The goal is certainly always finding the next Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, John Calipari, or Mike Krzyzewski. But you can waste a lot of years trying to meet that goal, and even then there’s no guarantee. And besides, the folks out there don’t look like Krzyzewskis – they look like Kellys. 4-8 sucks. I was on the fence… Read more »
That was a perfect example and well read. Thanks!!
I’m going to put the NC appearance for IU 100% on Tom Coverdale’s back. 6’3″ Gingers are NEVER given enough credit in college basketball! (Had nothing to do with Jared Jeffries [Or the fact that they got to play tournament games against teams seeded 13,12,10,2,1 to get to the final.])
I love your optimism, man, I’m wired to find the cup half full even if it’s at 25%. Having said that, and given the bruises on my ‘nads from taking one after another as an ND football fan, I am reminded that for every Alford turnaround tale there are hundreds of guys who kept following the trajectory downhill.
If Swarbrick keeps Kelly (and I’m not at all convinced he will, I think the comments on the Nolan show can be parsed as an AD who is still looking and waiting for the end of the bowl season to talk to a couple guys more at length), then I’m pulling for Kelly to be like Alford at UCLA.
I don’t know, I think programs that show patience are reasonably often rewarded for doing so – provided that it’s the coach’s talent driving that decision rather than a contract or something like that. I look at basketball again with guys like Jay Wright or say MSU with Izzo. You know Izzo hasn’t won a title since 2000. They’ve only won one title since he’s been there. They’ve only won 30+ games once since that title win. It’s kind of weird, isn’t it? He’s so respected as a coach and they’re always such a competitive team. But at Notre Dame, fans would be appalled by those results. Still, with the program MSU has built and so consistently being competitive, I’m sure fans are glad they’ve stuck by him.
But to flip it, those programs that do churn through coaches are rarely rewarded for it. Michigan’s been a rare exception, but like we saw with ND, they flounder until they find someone like Kelly.
If Kelly is fired, oh well, it’s not the end of the world. I’m just with you on your perspective (assuming I’m interpreting it right) in icing the balls and hoping Kelly can turn it around.
100% agree with Eric’s top choice. Maybe I’m cynical, though, because I have a hard time imagining him leave the Pac-12 for South Bend.