The second (or the old) National Signing Day opens this Wednesday morning with Notre Dame in an odd place without its offensive line as the strength of the class. For the 2013-17 recruiting classes at Notre Dame 15 of the top 37 recruits came from the offensive line. Right now for the 2018 the Irish have signed 2 linemen with a verbal commit set so sign tomorrow–none of them crack the top 13 recruits in the class.
They say it was a down year for offensive linemen in 2018. For the previous cycle there were 47 linemen with .900 Composite scores, compared to just 37 this cycle. At the top of the rankings, 2017 offered 21 recruits with .950 scores while there were only 12 such recruits this cycle. Notre Dame may have recognized this early which is partly why Dirksen (10+ months) and Mabry (12 months) committed such a long time ago. Of course, Harry Heistand may have had one foot out the door and probably wasn’t too crazy about pounding the recruiting trail this cycle, too.
To be fair, the class may not be done yet on the offensive line. The Irish are still technically in it for the nation’s top lineman Nicholas Petit-Frere out of Berkeley Prep in Tampa while Mission Viejo’s Jarrett Patterson is the No. 25 tackle in the country with Notre Dame as a finalist. We can’t rule out either at this point, obviously the former would be an enormous fish to reel in this late.
As we were finishing up our 18 Stripes grades and comments for the 2018 class it got me thinking about the past and the offensive linemen who have started for Notre Dame since Brian Kelly arrived. Here’s the full list:
Starting Offensive Linemen 2010-17
Braxston Cave (.941)
Chris Stewart (can’t find his score but was an Army All-American)
Trevor Robinson (.960)
Matt Romine (.975)
Zack Martin (.931)
Taylor Dever (.848)
Chris Watt (.978)
Mike Golic, Jr. (.879)
Christian Lombard (.923)
Nick Martin (.861)
Ronnie Stanley (.947)
Connor Hanratty (.845)
Steve Elmer (.946)
Mike McGlinchey (.928)
Quenton Nelson (.970)
Sam Mustipher (.912)
Alex Bars (.948)
Hunter Bivin (.954)
Tommy Kraemer (.983)
Robert Hainsey (.960)
If you’re not a blue-chip recruit the odds are really stacked against you. If my memory serves me right Nick Martin was a 3-year starter, Dever was a 2-year starter, Golic started for one year, while Hanratty started a handful of games over his career. So that’s roughly 6.5 years of starting from 40 years of experience.
For 2018 we may see Trevor Ruhland (.873) grab a starting spot which would break a 4-year run of only blue-chip prospects starting at Notre Dame. If it’s not Ruhland there are 3 other blue-chip underclassmen ready to step in, and if one of them does, we could see only blue-chips starting on the line through 2020. That’d bea run of 7 straight years!
So, how much will this 2018 class ultimately matter then?
In the long run, probably not that much. As many know, I’ve been a critic of the often-used phrase “you can never have too many offensive linemen” when in reality when you’re looking at it from a recruits perspective there may be no harder place to break into the starting ranks than Notre Dame. We’ll be rolling out our grades and comments for the 2018 class in the coming days and the brutal truth is that maybe, just maybe, one of the ’18 recruits will play a significant role in the program and/or start some games. If Petit-Frere signs with Notre Dame that changes the calculus!
We tend to live in a culture where any recruiting misses in a cycle is the end of the world. For the Irish offensive line one down year is completely recoverable. Take a look at the players listed above and think about how many of them were full-time starters as redshirt freshmen or sophomores. It’s most of them!
Therefore, any criticism of this 2018 class while fair in a vacuum probably isn’t going to affect the program too much in the future. It does make the 2019 class important and maybe Notre Dame can get off to a hot start with commits from a pair of Minnesotans in Quinn Carroll (.970) and Bryce Benhart (.912).
Yeah, I could see this being the case. Our 2015 class was similar, I think?
Where’s Hegarty?
Also, didn’t Harrell and McGovern get starts in 2016? Admittedly my memory of that season is hazy.
Yup, Harrell made one or two starts I forgot about him. Add another non-blue chip guy to the list!
McGovern also started a few games before injuries hit, too. Good memory! He was a low 4-Star.
Good analysis, and you’re probably right. Still, it’d be nice to get NPF and feel like we got a surefire starter out of this class.
“If you’re not a blue-chip recruit the odds are really stacked against you”
Agreed and it does make it curious they’re bringing in 3 fairly non blue-chips this year (relative to the historical names listed). One thing I was thinking about is that Hainsey, Kraemer, Eichenberg, Lugg, Banks all have at least 3, and sometimes 4, years of eligibility left. It’ll be interesting to see if any of the incoming guys grow into the lineup in 3ish years but there’s no need for them in the near future which sort of makes sense why 2018 wasn’t a banner year in OL and why some younger guys have transferred too in he past 12 months.
Here’s hoping the logic that 2019 will be a little more clear and should rebound. All things considered having a former MAC head coach as o-line coach isn’t too bad, just looks worse when thinking bigger picture of replacing an elite position coach in Hiestand and of course the negative history of those saddled with long histories with Kelly.