As the end of the 2016 offseason approaches, we’ll take a look at scenarios for the 2017 recruiting finish and how the class could potentially rank if each plays out. While there’s some element of divining to it, please note that this is NOT a prediction of who will sign with the Irish on February 1st (go ahead and mark your calendars for that one, folks). I’ve included a couple of kids that I’m pretty confident will sign with Notre Dame, and I’ve left out some kids that theoretically have us in their final group but realistically we have virtually no chance of signing. The methodology here is pretty simple: I took the last five years of top 15 classes by 247 Composite, averaged the team score for each rank position, and then used the 247 class calculator to project a final score for each scenario and slot it into the appropriate ranking position.

The usual caveats apply, of course; player ratings can change between now and February, new names can come into the picture out of nowhere, and current commitments could change their minds. For our purposes here I’m disregarding all of that and keeping this as simple as I can. I’m assuming we’ll take 7-8 more players in this class. Now, with all the fun stuff out of the way, let’s get to the #sportsmath results.

Where We Stand Today

The class currently sits at #5 in the 2017 247 Composite rankings with a team score of 240.15; as we’ll see in a moment, that’s a respectable score that limits the floor for this class, but the ranking will probably be very difficult to maintain. Notre Dame currently has 17 commits; 11 of them are four-star prospects, which ties the Irish with #1 Ohio State, #2 Alabama, and #6 Oklahoma for most in that category. Ohio State has three five-stars already committed and Alabama has two, while Notre Dame and Oklahoma both have zero. Puke. Anyway… Notre Dame’s highest-rated recruit is Brock Wright, the #67 prospect overall, with Robert Hainsey not far behind at #74 overall.

The Pipe Dream Recruiting Finish

If I had to put a percentage on the probability of this finish occurring I’d guess somewhere around 0.01%. Hey, crazier stuff has happened, but honestly, don’t put any money on this, OK? Not that I endorse gambling under any circumstances, which I don’t, Mr. FBI person… To give some numerical context here, five of the eight players listed would each be the highest-rated recruit in our class today. So, yeah. Very much not likely to happen. But it could, and I know some of you would ask “what if player

[X] really did sign,” so here we go…

Player Position Rank Score
Foster Sarell OT 3 0.9942
Darnay Holmes CB 11 0.9924
Shaun Wade CB 17 0.9889
Joshua Kaindoh DE 30 0.9831
Jedrick Wills OT 41 0.9779
Hunter Echols DE 97 0.9500
Osiris St. Brown WR 144 0.9363
Tarik Black WR 152 0.9342

 

This recruiting finish would give the class a score of 301.01; in any of the last five cycles that would be good enough for #2 nationwide, but with the way Ohio State and Alabama are going this year I think it might end up being good enough for #3 instead. Regardless, it would be an absurdly good class and the best of the Kelly era, edging out the 2013 class that finished #5. Irish fans should be over the moon if Notre Dame signs just two of the top six guys here, let alone all of them. Why did I say “top six”? Well, read on, friends.

The Recruiting Finish That’s OK to Think About

Is this finish likely either? Wellllll… Probably not. But it or a finish like it is substantially more probable than the aptly-named pipe dream scenario, so go ahead and visualize this one. We won’t judge, at least not in any way that you can actually hear us.

Player Position Rank Score
Foster Sarell OT 3 0.9942
Shaun Wade CB 17 0.9889
Hunter Echols DE 97 0.9500
Bubba Bolden S 118 0.9427
Osiris St. Brown WR 144 0.9363
Tarik Black WR 152 0.9342
Jamire Calvin ATH 435 0.8732
Dalton Wagner OT 525 0.8640

 

Bolden and Wagner don’t have offers right now, but could possibly pick them up soon. Sarell and Wade will be very tough pulls, but not impossible. Echols is probably a coin flip, and could possibly be a package deal with teammate Jamire Calvin. You might notice that St. Brown and Black repeat. Clever one, you… This finish would yield a class score of 285.3, which in any of the last five cycles would’ve slotted very comfortably into the #5 spot.

The Recruiting Finish That’s Most Likely

I wouldn’t go so far as call this a prediction for the class – in fact, for all of these scenarios, I would recommend getting less hung up on specific names in the finish and look more at the overall mix of prospect ratings. I think a finish of this quality is eminently achievable.

Player Position Rank Score
Thomas Graham CB 49 0.9734
Salvon Ahmed ATH 121 0.9420
Osiris St. Brown WR 144 0.9363
Tarik Black WR 152 0.9342
Aaron Banks OT 168 0.9295
Dalton Wagner OT 525 0.8640
Amari Carter S 528 0.8639
K’jakyre Daley DE 701 0.8527

 

Now, who knows – maybe Echols does jump, so no room for Daley, but a lower-rated offensive lineman comes on. Or maybe Ahmed doesn’t join but Bubba Bolden does, and so on. However it works out, I just think this quality finish is obtainable. It would yield a team score of 273.97, which would be on average #9 over the last five cycles. Not too shabby.

The Recruiting Finish Floor for 2017

Bold words, I know, but the staff has done an excellent job putting this class together and I just can’t imagine a more significant fizzle than this down the stretch. At this point Notre Dame would get to this finish via contingency plans for at least two, possibly three or even four positions.

Player Position Rank Score
Osiris St. Brown WR 144 0.9363
Tarik Black WR 152 0.9342
Jacob Phillips LB 219 0.9136
Elijah Gates CB 255 0.9040
Dalton Wagner OT 525 0.8640
Amari Carter  S  528 0.8639
Kwity Paye DE 1088 0.8366

 

This finish would give the Irish class a team score of 263.18, which on average would be good for #12. That’s a tick higher than where we have typically ranked under Kelly, so it might seem par for the course, but with how this class has started it would be hard for this finish not to feel like a disappointment.

Those of you who have been paying attention – if you’re not I’m not sure you how made it down here, but whatever man, your life – might notice that I’ve put Osiris St. Brown and Tarik Black in each of the four scenarios. As you might have guessed, that means I feel pretty good about both of them eventually signing with Notre Dame. I’ve left out guys like Jeffrey Okudah and Devon Hunter, who have said very nice things about Notre Dame but have yet to show any interest beyond that.