After a decade on the job I understand how anyone would be interested in plotting the course ahead in the Notre Dame football post-Brian Kelly world. In fact, I’m as guilty as anyone. Even among the cooler heads it’s been a rocky road for the current Irish coach who faced a mountain of scrutiny in October 2010, questions about his dedication in January 2013, laments about a relapse into an average of 4.5 losses per year, before nearly sinking it all with a terrible 2016 that caused many (myself included) to question whether it was worth it to keep Kelly around.
Fast forward 3 years and after a 32-6 record with back-to-back-to-back 10-win seasons things are much sunnier. Following an impressive program reboot the Irish went from operating on the fringes of the Top 25 with an occasional jump (and one horrific drop) to a fixture in and around the Top 10 of the country.
No doubt, the program ceiling has been lifted. So much so that it is very clear that the people above Brian Kelly agree that the Irish are currently cruising into a new decade. Yet, there’s still a strong sentiment around South Bend of what exactly is lurking over the horizon.
All signs are pointing toward Kelly signing a 2-year extension soon which would put 4 more years on his contract through the 2023 season. Where is this ship ultimately headed? Here are 3 factors to consider:
#1 Recruiting
It’s not uncommon to read in recent months that Notre Dame is close to a National Championship, or that Brian Kelly is on the path to winning one in the future. Even if only 5% of people believe that it still feels high to me. His detractors would point to the unlikelihood of someone doing that so deep into a tenure (plus you know, the whole coaching angle) but the larger issues of achieving that goal revolve around recruiting.
This is a fact that more Notre Dame fans need to understand: The Irish have never won or even seriously competed for National Championships without elite of the elite recruiting classes. The belief that Brian Kelly is close to knocking on the title door comes in two forms:
1) Recruiting is in the process of, or will eventually very soon, kick into high gear with a re-tooled staff and greater success on the field.
2) Brian Kelly’s coaching is going to buck the trend and overcome the talent gap.
I’m not sure there are many who truly believe the second point, although they surely exist in some form. The best way for that to be propagated is to ignore point number one. If you’re generally happy with the 10-3 to 11-2 process in a vacuum it’s not that hard to think about taking the next step as a natural progression through program momentum.
Even though Notre Dame remains the country’s most storied program there’s a deep underdog belief in how fans view the program, which isn’t totally inaccurate honestly. For some of the biggest games early in my lifetime–against Miami in 1988 and Florida State in 1993 for example–Notre Dame was home underdogs and still perceived as inferior talent-wise by most of the country. Somehow, they overcame the odds.
Still, even at that point the Irish recruiting was neck and neck with the best in the country and the talent gap–if it even existed–was ridiculous small. That’s not the Notre Dame which is headed into 2020. The path to defeating Clemson next year and then defeating back-to-back top 5 programs in the playoffs is a massive leap–even with improved recruiting–and practically impossible without several improvements in talent.
The Irish plucking several elite offensive recruits for 2020 (3 in the top 50) with several on board for 2021 already is needed progress. Even still, while the smaller Notre Dame 2020 class has the 9th best player average in the country a comparison to their contemporaries is necessary. The Irish class average sits as the 44th best since 2000 while Clemson and Georgia are tied for 11th best and Alabama at 13th best overall. The Tigers and Tide averages are particularly impressive given they have the 13th and 16th most overall points respectively over the last 21 cycles.
#2 Coaching
There is much work to be done this off-season as the Irish look to re-tool the coaching staff, including the search for a new offensive coordinator. There’s also good intel that a new defensive backs coach will be needed, plus a new tight end coach to fill Chip Long’s departure, and the possibility of a move at the offensive line (although this seems less likely).
It’s interesting to see the differences in how we view the defense under Clark Lea (14th nationally in scoring defense, 11th in yards per play, and 25th in SP+) versus the offense under the now departed Chip Long (13th nationally in scoring, 33rd in yards per play, and 20th in SP+). Even if the defense is superior–although the gap probably isn’t as large as most think–we are walking into a momentous decision from Brian Kelly on who will lead the offense moving forward.
The overwhelming heavy favorite is dear son Tommy Rees who will get the chance to call plays during the bowl game and realistically something drastic would have to happen for him to not get the full-time job beginning in January.
This sets up a weird situation for 2020 as there is expected to be a core of veterans (Ian Book, Cole Kmet, Tony Jones, the entire offensive line) returning with an infusion of talented youth, especially at the skill positions. Arguably, some continuity with Rees would be preferred in this situation, although 2021 looms large with a lot of veteran experience walking out the door (as many as 7 offensive starters) which would force Rees to break in a new quarterback surrounded by a green offense line and veterans like Braden Lenzy, Lawrence Keys, and Tommy Tremble.
It’s a tall task to keep the 2017-19 momentum rolling, protect Clark Lea from outside head coaching temptations, break in a new OC, and balance the overly veteran to overly young offensive depth chart that should occur over the next 2 seasons.
The hires of Chip Long, Mike Elko, and Clark Lea have recast Brian Kelly’s abilities to delegate responsibility and make the program stronger. But, a poor choice for the new OC position could torpedo much of this progress.
#3 Leadership
The impetus for this article was a recent quote from Notre Dame president John Jenkins who spoke with the Athletic’s Pete Sampson for a story back on December 11, 2019 regarding the 10-year anniversary of Brian Kelly’s hire:
“Looking back at that decision 10 years ago, I couldn’t be more happy. I don’t think any coach in America, given the constraints that he’s working under, I don’t think any coach in America has done better. We couldn’t be happier with Brian and the success that he’s had at Notre Dame and how he’s represented the University so well.”
This caught my attention for a few reasons.
One, if we imagine that Brian Kelly’s staunchest defender on campus is athletic director Jack Swarbrick there’s no assurances he will be around as long as the current football coach. Swarbrick turns 66 this upcoming March, has nearly 8 years in age over Kelly, and 2 more years as AD before Kelly arrived. The odds are that the next football coach at Notre Dame will be hired by a different athletic director.
A dead cell phone. A strident parking attendant. A sketchy hotel checkout. And Randy Edsall?
The lost stories of how Notre Dame hired Brian Kelly one decade ago from the figures who lived it. https://t.co/EKX1EncjCs
— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) December 11, 2019
Two, if we assume Kelly’s contract is going to be extended through the 2023 season and the likelihood of Swarbrick being around is low then it’s really imperative to understand how Jenkins feels about his current football coach. The school president–who was just elected to a new 5-year term that will see him remain in power through at least June 2025–will likely hold enormous sway over a new AD and eventually a new football coach.
That’s not anything earth shattering but it does seem more relevant given Kelly’s long tenure and Jenkins’ extremely supportive comment above. If we take those comments at face value this in no way looks like an university that is any hurry to even think about a successor to Brian Kelly.
This is what has me worried. Even if you agree there’s a good deal of public relations massaging to truly believe Kelly has done a better job than anyone given the inherent hindrance of working at Notre Dame, it still has the feel of a school fully kicking their feet up on the desk and ready to sit back and watch the sun set on the Kelly era.
We don’t need to remind anyone how quickly things change in college football. On the one hand, if Kelly is around until 2023 there’s little reason to panic about his replacement–and as Michael Bryan’s Stanford Advanced Stats Review mentioned looking back at the top coaches from the summer of 2016–the perceived best talent in the business changes almost in a comically rapid way over a short period of time. On the other hand, the Irish could lose to Iowa State in the bowl game in a week and next year could be a massive disappointment.
We don’t really know the future but it makes me curious whether Notre Dame is content to watch Kelly stroll into retirement and how ready they would be to pounce on a new hire in the future. If you take Jenkins’ words at face value it seems like something that isn’t on their radar. That’s fine if the Kelly boat continues to cruise but at some point it will come back to dock and that often happens suddenly and a lot messier than we hope.
Kelly will get an extension and that is not problematic. The issue would be the buyout if you decided to part ways before the end of the deal. Is it a guaranteed contract like a baseball player or a contract like a football player, where they cut get and don’t get those extra years. For recruiting, you need to project stability. Even if it is all guaranteed, it is not necessarily a bad investment, assuming you are willing to eat it, to project that stability and get that across to the players.
Also, I am not troubled by Jenkins statement. However, it ignores Declan Sullivan, but again you need to project Shagri-La. Just look at how well USC, a place where I should be able to recruit a plethora of 5* athletes to see what turmoil brings.
We need to close the talent gap and we need to close the coaching gap. Neither is all Kelly, but it is in the sense that the buck stops there. The way we will close the talent gap is showing itself in this class and so far next, but also we need to get better development of players. Julian Love was a 3* athlete. He truly developed. Darnell Ewell was a 4* DT. He went the other way, perhaps injuries, but for whatever reason he was a miss.
The glass is more than half full. I think we are in the near elite range. The trick for us is a small margin of error and a need for each unit to be better simultaneously. Each year, one unit or another is not where it needs to be. The elite teams don’t have that.
The next few years will be a transition at AD, football coach, and likely University President. I can see Jenkins not staying past 2025. My guess is Kelly gets his extension through 2023. Swarbrick announces he is stepping aside next spring or spring 2022. That gives time for a good AD search and for them to get their feet under them. I doubt kelly will want to coach past 2023, but the decision is in the hands of a new AD backed by an experienced President.
Great article. To the extent folks remember (many) comments from three years ago, I was loud wrong about getting rid of Kelly, so in the spirit of humility I probably shouldn’t say much here.
But that’s not going to stop me!
The recruiting gap is real, and those who read the “inside info” post from Tom Loy today realize that Kelly is not giving full effort to close it (not going to say more detail than that, as per II premium content rules, but it’s fair to say he is a medium-effort recruiter). That’s frustrating, especially considered he is certainly not enough of a strategic genius to make up the difference (query whether anyone is; see, e.g., Chip Kelly’s struggles at UCLA).
I think those around the program should be happy, but should be hungry for more. We’re already crawling towards the aspirational level, but to get toward walking we need to be a consistent playoff contender (an Oklahoma, e.g.). That might be the program ceiling (for the “it’s not 1988 any more” reasons, I suspect in my lifetime we’ll never be at the Bama/Clemson, or even Ohio State, level), but there probably shouldn’t be quotes like the Jenkins one until we are there.
How do we get there? IDK, here’s where the last gasps of I-was-very-wrong-before humility kick in.
Interesting take. To me, I don’t sense Notre Dame is content and just strolling or coasting to the end of this era. They just built the new indoor facility, have recently had training table and dining upgrades lately (to say nothing of the Campus Crossroads project/impact), IMO the University is still pretty aggressively pursuing the necessary steps to keep up with the championship powers. We’ll see if they do more with the private air travel for recruiting full time….And I think there’s another addition or upgrade coming for the Gug soon too, right? I think the commitment to the never-ending process of facilities and the like is a positive sign.
I also keep in mind a Sampson quote (paraphrased and emphasis added) that goes along the lines of “the perception outside of Notre Dame is they CAN’T win a big game, the perception in the Gug is they HAVEN’T won a big game.” Even this year, on the road at Georgia they have an opportunity for a game-winning last minute drive. They played Clemson pretty strongly last year outside of about 10-15 minutes with Love hurt. The somewhat fading games now of close calls vs FSU, @Clemson.
That also goes to show that ND has to have everything go right (to speak of your talent gap) and they’re screwed when Love gets hurt, whereas when Clemson’s 1st round DT gets suspended, they can plug-and-play another elite talent. But, the positive is Notre Dame with Kelly has a chance usually. (Unless it’s raining, then they shouldn’t get off the bus).
I’m not too concerned right now about complacency or the unknown of what the program, AD and coach look like in 5 years. I know it’ll be different, but current efforts and success on the field has the program in a strong position and headed in a positive direction. Everyone understands it’s not to elite, elite levels, but it’s still a good place when 10-2 next year is already the likely floor. As long as they can carry the positive momentum they’ve been building, I trust that (especially reading the 18S Weis retrospective) the Notre Dame HC job will be a lot more attractive when it next opens compared to where it was in 2009.
I agree with you. I’m not sure how Jenkins’ made-for-print remark about his satisfaction with Kelly’s performance to date suggests that they aren’t giving consideration privately to what comes after his inevitable departure, whether that’s at the conclusion of 2023 or sometime sooner. If Swarbrick doesn’t already have a “BK gets hit by a bus” Plan B in mind, then, frankly, he’s not doing his job as AD.
I look at it more this way…
No doubt they are considering other options privately. But, let’s say they lose this bowl game and go 8-4 next year AND their top replacement is in about as good of a position as there will be to hire. Would they pull the trigger? I seriously, seriously doubt it.
That’s a little bit different than if they should–which is a whole other argument–but if we’re going to be content with Kelly raising the program standards (definitely agreed) and they are in a strong position for a successor it’ll be important to strike when the iron is hot, so to speak.
I like the balanced view of the article, but I agree 100% with this take. 20 years from now, Kelly should be remembered as the coach who modernized ND football. Turf field, sound system, jumbo screen, better training room, upgraded training facilities, improved dining, special uniforms, etc. These are VITAL to recruiting in 2019. Virtually zero recruits born in the 21st century are awed by 20th century gridiron greatness, let alone the monastic austerity of small dorm rooms (with asbestos, without A/C) and dining hall rations. All college kids care about what they eat, where they live, and how they recreate; athletes also crave the same type of comforts in their daily sportsing routine.
Notre Dame cannot do anything about its geography, and should not waver in its academic excellence. These will always be hurdles for any coach to overcome. But by steadfastly adhering to the wishes of the down-in-front-harrumphers, Our Lady’s university had made top-tier recruiting nearly impossible. That has all changed in the last few years, and Kelly has leveraged occasional on-field success for long-overdue improvements. If 2012 and 2018 are the pinnacle of his career, it will have been enough for me. His successor will start on day 1 with all the necessary tools for success, and barring a total collapse, will inherit a stable program of legitimate CURRENT national relevance. Consistent top 10 talent and top 10 performance is a massive upgrade from the Davie Weisingham era, and the progress was not an obvious evolution. There have been plenty of terrible, regrettable mistakes over the years, and some embarrassing stumbles in game preparation and execution. That said, I’m with Fr. Jenkins on the overall view of his tenure.
I think modernizing the ND helmet could fall into the argument for greatest move of Kelly’s tenure.
Legacy: Achieved
A lot hinges on this OC hire and I’m not thrilled about Tommy, although I don’t think he’s the worse choice and as you say he could do well next year. But if he only slightly underperforms in 2020, then bombs in 2021 without the veteran talent, that’s about as bad as it gets. Especially when Kelly retires at the end of 2021.
Seems scary!
However, as people have noted, I don’t think means people aren’t thinking about after Kelly. And I think that any scenario in which Kelly retires that isn’t the nightmare scenario above is okay. Thanks to the recent run of success, we’re way more attractive now than we were. To a guy who believes in his abilities and loves recruiting, like a Campbell or a Fleck, we’re in a good position to attract head coaching talent now.
Hopefully people in the administration aren’t hitting snooze on the panic alarm! But for now, I will hit snooze on my personal panic alarm.
I’d like to believe that Savvy Jack is on top of all this. As he must know his own plan for the future, I would think who his successor will be is part of that plan. I’m sure there will be a short list.
As far as new assistant coaching hires, I will not be surprised if ND tabs a new OL coach with veteran experience and Quinn gets moved to TEs. Quinn has been a good recruiter, I want him to stay, for that reason alone. But I also think it’s imperative that ND gets more from it’s Oline. With the way we can recruit Olinemen that group has to be a strength in most years.
I think naming Rees OC is more a risk PR wise than it might be in actuality. After 7 years working with him, who would understand what Kelly wants to do more than TR ? If Rees truly called the plays the last 4 games, I think you have to say he did fine. I thought Book showed less reluctance to let his WRs make a play on the ball in those games. Is that a reflection on Rees? IDK. Scuttlebutt is Long was harsh in his approach with players. Perhaps a softer personality at OC would be a plus. Especially at QB.
Kelly is fired up about 2020…Me too. This team could be really good next year. I think any changes made this off season, should be focused on that.
The “Rees called the plays at the end of the season” rumor never made any sense (Long would have quit the day after the season had that happened) and has been debunked by post-firing reporting.
ok. That certainly seems more probable. Ian Book gives credit to Rees for being really good at scripting plays. Perhaps that’s where those rumors came from. Perhaps his role was growing in that regard.
It’s hard for me to envision elite status for ND with their 3 top 50 offensive recruits this year when osu, Clemson and Alabama get 5-7 EVERY year. On top of that the comparative number of 5 stars those teams get and ND will always be just on the outside looking in
Eric, I’m curious why you think there’s a “possibility” of a coaching change at OL? There seems to be no indication of this.
And why would there be? Entire unit is returning, Quinn now recruited most of the guys on roster, BK and Quinn go way way back, pass blocking this yr was outstanding, and run game problems seem related to RB talent, injuries and Long philosophy.
Maybe I’m missing something but chance of a change at OL coach seems somewhere between 0-3%.
Have you heard differently from insiders?
Kelly, when asked about filling Long’s position, mentioned that he didn’t know (at that time) which way he was going to go. “I’ll do what’s best for the program”. He himself said he could fill the spot in a number of different ways, a new Oline coach being one way. I took it to mean moving Quinn to another position(TEs). It seems from scuttlebutt that Long and Quinn had a disconnect. Perhaps Kelly isn’t putting 100% of that on Long.
I agree that RB needs an upgrade, that said, I think the Oline run blocking should be better too. Kelly seems to be stressing that he wants a better run game in 2020.
Thanks