Rough week, but there were in fact other games that happened and, if you’re a fan of college football, other things worth tracking going forward. Our board will consist of all ranked undefeated teams and all ranked one-loss Power 5 teams – first from the AP poll, then from the committee rankings when they’re available soon. I define “resume wins” for our purposes as wins over currently-ranked teams; it gets too complicated to project whether teams will drop out of or climb into the rankings as the year progresses.

Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and won’t include potential conference championship game participation until we get closer to that weekend – at this point, if a P5 team is still on the board they have a path to the conference title game. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s table over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.

Undefeated Teams

An undefeated team will generally control its own destiny, except of course for the Group of 5 teams. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today. Except of course for the Group of 5 teams (sorry guys).

#1 LSU

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: vs. #6 Florida, vs. #11 Auburn

Possible resume wins: at #1 Alabama

538 table-running probability: 17%

Worth noting that Texas, another LSU pelt, is a single point outside the AP top 25 and #24 in the Coaches’ Poll as well. Last week I said this:

I’m not sure why LSU is behind Alabama – they clearly have a much better resume to date. I’m willing to bet that if they knock off Auburn this week that relationship will flip.’

Hey, look, I got one right! LSU juuuust squeaked past Alabama to #1 this week, despite having 17 first-place votes to Alabama’s 21. Not sure I can think of another time that has happened. They’re off this week and then travel to Tuscaloosa for the game of the year.

#2 Alabama

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #1 LSU, at #11 Auburn

538 table-running probability: 28%

Alabama had about as much trouble with Arkansas as you’d think they would, and now they also get a chance to rest before LSU comes to town. The weakness of their schedule this year continues to astound – none of their opponents to date are ranked, and six of the eight they’ve faced are currently .500 or worse.

#3 Ohio State

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: vs. #17 Cincinnati, vs. #18 Wisconsin

Possible resume wins: vs. #5 Penn State, at #14 Michigan

538 table-running probability: 46%

Ohio State has played a more respectable slate than Alabama and has yet to be challenged – they’re winning by an average of 40 points per game, despite facing solid Cincinnati and Wisconsin teams. We’ll have to wait almost a month for them to get tested again, when Penn State visits.

#4 Clemson

This week: Wofford (FCS)

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #23 Wake Forest

538 table-running probability: 70%

Not that it’s likely to matter, but Clemson has zero margin for error with how soft their schedule turned out this year. It’s still very much in the realm of possibility that they’ll finish the regular season without having played a ranked team and, like Alabama, six of them are .500 or worse.

#5 Penn State

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: at #19 Iowa, vs. #14 Michigan

Possible resume wins: at #13 Minnesota, at #3 Ohio State

538 Table-Running Probability: 13%

Penn State followed up a nail-biter at home against Michigan with an impressive showing on the road against Michigan State. Maybe they’re for real after all? They get a week off before taking on the suddenly dangerous Golden Gophers.

#12 Baylor

This week: West Virginia (Thursday)

Resume wins to date: at #22 Kansas State

Possible resume wins: vs. #10 Oklahoma

538 table-running probability: 6%

The Bears host West Virginia on Halloween, which feels appropriate but I can’t quite nail down why. They were off last week; before that they ran away from a decent Okie State team on the road. They also went on the road earlier in the year to clobber Kansas State in the same venue where Kansas State just knocked off Oklahoma. Hmm. Maybe they’re for real too?

#14 Minnesota

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #5 Penn State, at #19 Iowa, vs. #18 Wisconsin

538 table-running probability: 2%

Minnesota started the season off slowly but spent the entire month of October obliterating people. Sure, those teams are conference bottom feeders, but so was Minnesota a couple of years ago. They get a week off to ponder before Penn State comes to town.

Group of 5 Teams

#15 SMU (9% chance to win out) survived a very serious scare at Houston and will now travel to #24 Memphis, so big boy time in the AAC. #20 Appalachian State (23% chance to win out) was significantly less challenged by South Alabama and will face Georgia Southern on Halloween.

One Loss Teams

These teams aren’t out of it but will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.

#6 Florida

This week: vs. #10 Georgia (neutral site)

Resume wins to date: vs. #11 Auburn

Possible resume wins: vs. #10 Georgia (neutral site)

The one loss: at #1 LSU

538 table-running probability: 9%

Florida had a week off to get ready for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and man, is it a huge game this year. The winner will have a stranglehold on the SEC East. That loss to LSU looks less bad with each passing week too.

#7 Oregon

This week: at USC

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: None

The one loss: vs. #11 Auburn (neutral site)

538 table-running probability: 29%

A week after rallying against Washington, Oregon kicked a field goal as time expired to beat Washington State – that was the sixth lead change of the game. It feels like the Ducks have been playing with fire, and now they have a road date at a resurgent USC.

#8 Georgia

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: #16 Notre Dame

Possible resume wins: vs. #6 Florida (neutral site), at #11 Auburn

The one loss: at South Carolina

538 table-running probability: 8%

Georgia’s marquee win looks a little worse this week, but they have two high-quality opportunities ahead. As noted above, if they win this week they’ll control the SEC East and their path to the playoff.

#9 Utah

This week: at Washington

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: None

The one loss: at USC

538 table-running probability: 22%

Utah destroyed Cal 35-0. Their average margin of victory against FBS teams this year is 26.5 – if you take out their 7-point loss to a USC team that was down to its third-string QB. Truly a baffling year for the Utes. They have a tough road date with the Huskies this week.

#10 Oklahoma

This week: vs. Iowa State

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #12 Baylor

538 table-running probability: 25%

Yikes. The Sooners were the biggest upset victim of the week; they spent most of the game against previously-unranked Kansas State, a 23.5 point underdog, getting their butts kicked. Their furious fourth-quarter rally is a silver lining for the rest of the season, but they now have no margin for error.

#23 Wake Forest

This week: vs. NC State

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #4 Clemson

538 table-running probability: 1%

Wake gets back in action this week against a blah NC State, a week before heading to Blacksburg to face a blah Virginia Tech. If they can sweep those two games, they should be in the top 20 when they head to Clemson the following week. Insanity.

Off the Board

#11 Auburn maybe still has a path with two losses because SEC, especially since only one of those losses is in-conference and they therefore have a clearer path to the SEC title game. But it’s a tall ask.

#16 Notre Dame landed with a thud and its entrails splattered out on the Ann Arbor sidewalk. That’s all I have to say about that.

#18 Wisconsin got blown out by Ohio State a week after Illinois shocked them at the buzzer. They have an uphill battle to win their division, never mind get in the playoff.