Projecting 2018 Recruiting Needs

The 2017 football opener against Temple inches ever closer, which of course means it’s a perfect time for projecting 2018 recruiting needs for the remainder of this cycle. Right? That’s how I read it, anyway… With the recent pledges of George Takacs, Jahmir Smith, Shayne Simon, and Jack Lamb, the 2018 class stands at 15 commits at various positions of need. We’ll dig into who’s in the class, how much space remains, and how many more players might join each position group.

I know this sounds a little loopy, but when I look at who’s in the class and who we’re still chasing it seems that the staff is targeting a class of 24-26 players. How will that happen, you ask? An excellent question indeed.

Assuming no attrition (ha!), we would have the following class breakdown in 2018:

• Grad students: 13
• Seniors: 19
• Juniors: 21
• Sophomores: 21
• Freshmen: 15+

Without any more commits after today, we’d already be up to 89 scholarships. Danger, Will Robinson! The most obvious place to look for attrition is among the grad students, of course, so let’s dig in there.

• Definite returnees: ROV Drue Tranquill, OG Alex Bars, OC Sam Mustipher, DT Jonathan Bonner, DE Jay Hayes, CB Nick Watkins
• Bubble guys: WR Freddie Canteen, TE Nic Weishar, DT Pete Mokwuah, DT Daniel Cage (health), P Tyler Newsome
• Definite exits: OG Quenton Nelson, OG Jimmy Byrne

Tranquill, Bars, Mustipher, Bonner, Hayes, and Watkins are all starters. There’s no way the staff won’t invite them back. I first counted Newsome as a definite returnee, but after further reflection I’m not so sure; if we face a numbers crunch, incoming freshman Jonathan Doerer could take over in 2018.

Canteen is obviously new to the program and at a position with a ton of bodies, so right now he seems like a luxury. Weishar’s invitation could hinge on whether Alize Mack stays for his senior year (I think he will). I can’t imagine the staff will ask Mokwuah back at the expense of a recruit; in fact, if he played any other position he’d be in the “Definite Exits” group. Cage in all probability will have to retire next year. Q is headed to the NFL no matter what. Byrne has been a good solider but a non-contributor, seems highly doubtful that he would get a fifth year.

That adds up to a max of seven potential grad students moving on, which would allow for 18 recruits assuming no other attrition. And there’s the big asterisk to all of this… Since the season ended, the program has seen five kids transfer and two take medical leaves. Tristen Hoge, Parker Boudreaux, Josh Barajas, Ashton White, and Spencer Perry will all ply their trade elsewhere, while Tyler Luatua and Daniel Cage were sidelined for health reasons. Similar attrition after the 2017 season would allow us to get to – you guessed it – about a 25-man recruiting class.

Should we expect that amount of churn as the new norm? We’ve heard that the staff has been extremely, shall we say, direct about where guys fit into the pecking order. Those guys have then been able to decide between sitting at Notre Dame and playing elsewhere. Nobody hears he has to leave, from what we understand, but rather that he’s welcome to stay but playing time isn’t happening. Also, with many players finishing their degrees in three years, we could see more junior grad transfers from guys who are buried. All of that is a long way of saying it’s quite possible that, yes, this amount of churn will be the new norm. It’s a brave new world.

Like I said, I know the 25 number seems crazy, but there’s no doubt that the staff is pushing hard for several “take them no matter what” prospects. And in turn, there’s no doubt about the effect of that on the total numbers for the class. Buckle up, buttercup.

As usual, ratings and overall rankings are taken from the 247 Composite.

Offense

Quarterback (1 committed/1 targeted)

The Irish are done here and have been for a long time with Phil Jurkovec (0.9647, #70) in the fold. Jurkovec was the first domino to fall in this cycle, and has remained rock-solid in his pledge despite overtures from Ohio State and Penn State and the departure of lead recruiter Mike Sanford for the head job at Western Kentucky.

Running back (2/2)

Indiana product Markese Stepp (0.9163, #224) was the second commit of the 2018 cycle and has been the group’s most active recruiter. Recent addition Jahmir Smith (0.8624, #556) complements Stepp nicely as more of a between-the-tackles guy. They make a nice pair, and they provide some insurance against a potential early departure by Josh Adams. More importantly, they’ll provide depth in 2019 when both Adams and Dexter Williams will definitely be gone.

Wide receiver (1/3)

Red zone target Micah Jones (0.8757, #415) is another early commit and the lone receiver in the class as of today. Kevin Austin (0.9522, #109) recently tweeted that he will announce a commitment on August 11th; it would be a mild upset if he’s not the second receiver in the class. From there, the Irish will look to add a straight speed option, with a number of prospects on the board fitting that description. It’s very difficult at this point to handicap who the third receiver might be, but the staff definitely wants a third and definitely wants him to be a burner. At the beginning of the cycle it seemed Notre Dame was targeting four or even five receivers as the final number, but with Chip Long’s new tight-end heavy offense…

Tight end (1/2)

After landing Brock Wright and Cole Kmet, both top 100 guys, in the last cycle, this seemed like a luxury position in the 2018 class. However, even with fast-rising George Takacs (0.9094, #259) already in the class, Notre Dame is very clearly pushing for a second tight end; a closer look at the depth chart shows why. Durham Smythe is in his final year of eligibility now, Nic Weishar could decide to do a grad transfer, and Alize Mack could have a huge year and jump to the NFL. That would leave just Wright and Kmet on the depth chart of a two tight end offense.

Takacs profiles as a traditional, in-line tight end who can do some damage in the passing game, so the staff is targeting a hybrid tight end for the second spot. Enter top target Tommy Tremble (0.8630, #547), who is high on the Irish and will take an official visit for the Georgia game.

Offensive line (2/4)

Notre Dame really needs to sign a minimum of three and preferably four linemen in this cycle. Harry Hiestand pulled a couple of early targets that he really liked in Ohio’s John Dirksen (0.8837, #369) and Tennessee’s Cole Mabry (0.8575, #626); in true Hiestand fashion, either could slot in anywhere on the line after some development.  Hiestand can afford to be very choosy to fill out those last two spots, so don’t expect anything to happen tomorrow.

Right now the Irish seem to be in good position with interior prospect Sam Taimani (0.9088, #264) fresh off an unofficial visit. They could make a move for Will Craig (0.9068, #269) if they push. They’re in a dogfight with Alabama and Florida for the services of elite tackle Nick Petit-Frere (0.9684, #60). If Harry pulls any two of those guys to make up the final group, job well done.

Five-star guard Jamaree Salyer (0.9953, #7) will take an official visit for the Georgia game; while Notre Dame is a dark horse candidate for him right now, they are a legitimate candidate. He’s a take no matter what.

Defense

Defensive tackle (2/2)

Jayson Ademilola (0.9363, #155) and the underrated Ja’mion Franklin (0.8603, #585) give Notre Dame as good a pair of interior prospects as they’ve had in one class since… well… uh… I don’t know, a long time. More importantly, they don’t stand in isolation – with the addition of Darnell Ewell, Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa, and Kurt Hinish last year, the Irish have their best two-year haul here since… um… Dammit, stop asking me the tough questions! The aforementioned Taimani is actually a two-way prospect who we’re recruiting for offense because we’re full at defensive tackle. When has that ever happened?

Defensive end (1/3)

And now for the less positive news… Jayson’s twin brother Justin Ademilola (0.8615, #575) is our lone defensive end commit at the moment. The 2016 haul here was pretty good, with Daelin Hayes, Julian Okawara, Khalid Kareem, and Ade Ogundeji. That gave Notre Dame leeway to sign the class it did in 2017, with projects Kofi Wardlow and Jonathon MacCollister. You can’t have that kind of class twice in a row, though. Ohio State’s NFL presentation dazzled double Harvard legacy Jayson Oweh (0.9288, #177); despite early prioritization of academics, he will likely end up there. Stanford finally gave top strongside target Thomas Booker (0.9168, #210) his long-coveted offer in early June. He hasn’t committed to them yet, so there’s still hope, but it seems the Irish are playing from behind. Time for the Notre Dame staff to work some magic with the board.

Linebacker (3/3)

When Notre Dame landed Bo Bauer (0.9140, #235) and Ovie Oghoufo (0.8816, #381) early in the cycle, I thought they were probably done at linebacker. However, versatile prospect Jack Lamb (0.9365, #154) joined the fold yesterday and added big-time size and athleticism to the group. The staff was also pushing hard for buck prospect Cam McGrone (0.9180, #217); however, Michigan leads due to his concerns over the Notre Dame staff’s future. It’s unclear whether the staff will continue to recruit him with Lamb in the class, but right now I’d guess they won’t.

Rover (1/1)

This is a simple one – Shayne Simon (0.9448, #132) was basically the entire board at rover; when he committed Notre Dame was done at the position. He could push then-sophomore Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for #2 reps behind then-fifth-year-senior Drue Tranquill in 2018.

Cornerback (0/3)

Similar to the defensive end situation, the fact that Notre Dame signed Julian Love, Donte Vaughn, and Troy Pride in 2016 gave them a bit of a cushion. Unfortunately, that cushion also was entirely consumed by striking out in the 2017 cycle. On the upside, you have all three of those guys with eligibility through 2019, Nick Watkins with eligibility through 2018, and Shaun Crawford potentially with eligibility through 2020. On the downside, you have a hole last year when you clearly wanted three corners… Right now the Irish are sitting in excellent position with Donte Burton (0.8529, #728) and athlete Tariq Bracy (0.8556, #689). Will they be able to draw the interest of other prospects with a big season?

Safety (1/2)

With elite talent Derrik Allen (0.9681, #62) already in the fold, Notre Dame can afford to be extremely picky here. In fact, with the addition of Navy transfer Alohi Gilman and his remaining three years of eligibility, the Irish could even be done at safety, as crazy as that might sound. With Allen, Gilman, 2016 signees Jalen Elliott and Devin Studstill, and 2017 signees Isaiah Robertson and Jordan Genmark Heath, the safety depth chart is nowhere near as dire as it has been recently.

The staff is reportedly still pursuing local talent Paul Moala (0.8516, #756), though; California prospects Julius Irvin (0.9014, #286) and D’angelo McKenzie (0.8496, #807) both remain in touch with the staff as well. Don’t be surprised if they do try to add one more player here, but it’s not a necessity.

Specialists (0/0)

PunterBro kicks us in the fruitstand if we don’t include a category for specialists, and as you might guess from his handle he kicks pretty hard. So here’s the category. Aaand… we don’t need any.

Final Class Ranking

This is always tricky; player rankings shift, players come and go from your board unexpectedly, and so on. But we’ll give it a shot. Let’s assume the class closes with ten more players – two receivers, one tight end, two offensive linemen, two defensive ends, and three corners. Let’s further assume that Notre Dame builds some big buzz with at least nine wins; if the wheels comes off again this exercise is meaningless, so we might as well. Under those parameters, I think a reasonably realistic close would be:

• Kevin Austin, WR
• Lawrence Keys III, WR (0.9168, #220)
• Tommy Tremble, TE
• Nick Petit-Frere, OL
• Sam Taimani, OL
• Jalen Redmond, DE (0.8893, #340)
• Abdul Malik-McClain, DE (0.8685, #475)
• Kyler Gordon, CB (0.9076, #266)
• Donte Burton, CB
• Tariq Bracy, CB

Note that I’m not predicting all these guys to Notre Dame, especially Keys, Redmond, Malik-McClain, and Gordon. In fact, I’m pretty confident we won’t get Redmond and we’re probably a coin flip at best for Keys, Malik-McClain, and Gordon. I do think that their rankings are reasonable estimates for guys we should be able to land with a good season, though.

That kind of close would give us a Composite class score that would’ve ranked anywhere from 9th to 13th over the last few years. That struck me as surprisingly low, but I think the important thing to remember here is that this class has defensive difference makers that we haven’t gotten recently. There are as many top 150 defenders in this class as the previous three classes combined. For those wondering, it’s Ademilola, Allen, Lamb, and Simon versus Ewell (2017), Daelin Hayes (2016), Shaun Crawford (2015), and Josh Barajas (2015).

Also, I’m tempering my optimism more than I normally would; it’s entirely possible that a big season would bring us some nice surprises that I’m not factoring in here. For example, if you swap out Lawrence Keys for Amon-Ra St. Brown and add Jamaree Salyer – unlikely, I know, but with a phenomenal season there’s a chance it could happen – we’d probably end up with a class ranking somewhere from 5th to 7th. Dare to dream, folks.