Sometimes I will spend 90 minutes researching some obscure but fascinating stat that most people will skip over when reading an article. It adds ridiculous amounts of time to even the shortest articles. However, nothing I’ve done over the years took the drawn-out process of thinking more than the “Unofficial Guide to Rebuilding Notre Dame” now over 7 years old from its initial publishing date. Here’s a link to the 4th part which has the links to the first three within if you’re up for more reading:
The Unofficial Guide to Rebuilding Notre Dame: Part IV
Prior to the 2015 season, I re-visited “Rebuilding” in a little bit of a shorter 3-part series:
Rebuilding Notre Dame, 5 Years Later: Part I
Rebuilding Notre Dame, 5 Years Later: Part II
Rebuilding Notre Dame, 5 Years Later: Part III
The simplest viewpoint for these articles was this: Stop the backsliding and leave the program at least a couple notches better than you found it. Don’t suck, raise the tide of the program, attempt to pick away at some of Notre Dame’s historical bars for success, and set up the program to keep the ball rolling for a strong(er) hire in the future.
There were 10 Keys to Success that I had identified back in 2011 and when I revisited them in August 2015 these were the grades I handed out:
- Solidified Coaching Staff: B
- Beat More Ranked Teams: B
- Avoid Losing Seasons: B+
- Develop the QB Position: C+
- Maintain Healthy Roster Depth: B+
- Push the Envelope with Technology: B+
- Blow Out Opponents: D+
- Decrease the Bad Losses: B
- Recruit Football-First: B
- Mental Team Toughness: A-
In more recent times, I touched a little bit on the “Rebuilding” after the 2016 season. These were some dark, dark times, be careful with this re-read:
Just Do a Good Job with the Next Hire
One of my talking point in the original series was that Notre Dame needed to be patient with Brian Kelly. They’ve certainly been that, and more. By most accounts, Kelly deserved to be fired after 2016 but was allowed the chance to reinvent himself with 5 years remaining on his contract.
Now, let me revisit the grades for the Keys following 2018. Keep in mind I’m grading based on events since 2015 but also with an eye towards Irish history, too.
Solidified Coaching Staff: A-
We’re currently in the high water mark for Kelly in this regard. He did famously “lose” Mike Elko to Texas A&M although the retention of Clark Lea in order to elevate him to defensive coordinator has looked like an inspired move thus far.
Particularly on offense with the success of keeping Chip Long as coordinator we haven’t seen this type of stability on that side of the ball in a long time. We should also mention Mike Elston has been one of the best assistants in the country.
Beat More Ranked Teams: B+
This has been a slow and steady, although not always linear, area of improvement. Through his first 5 seasons, Kelly was 7-14 against ranked teams. Since then, he’s 8-10 including 7-4 over the last 2 years. Lou Holtz won 58% of his games against ranked teams so being near the 64% mark over the last two campaigns is encouraging.
Avoid Losing Seasons: D
The season that was 2016 absolutely torpedoed this grade. And realistically, still lingers around the program as the biggest knock on Brian Kelly & Co.
Develop the QB Position: B
I will have more on this below. I believe this grade has increased due to the success of DeShone Kizer and Ian Book who were far from nationally renowned recruits. But many questions still remain.
Maintain Healthy Roster Depth: A
Since we’re looking at scholarship numbers and roster depth almost every other month we are forced to nitpick things. Still, I can’t remember a time this century when the roster was this thoroughly strong across the board even if it’s lacking in certain areas with elite talent.
Push the Envelope with Technology: B+
I left this grade the same on the basis that it’s difficult to beat the massive weight of the Crossroads project. Still, the new indoor practice facility is scheduled to open this fall (with further improvements and expansion coming to the Gug), Notre Dame has been one of the country’s leaders with the Viscis helmets, and we’ve seen glimpses of encouraging (although maybe not revolutionary) strength and conditioning technology.
Since I am a dyed-in-the-wool Nike supporter I will take this opportunity to point out Under Armour was supposed to be bringing something performance-based to Notre Dame and since it’s stock crashed in late 2017 and they’ve gone through a large corporate restructure I guess we aren’t benefiting much from this relationship like anticipated.
Blow Out Opponents: B
The Irish were decidedly average in this area early in Kelly’s tenure. I think the belief persists that there’s something intrinsic about Notre Dame that prevents dominating opponents yet this area has been improving lately.
Using the gauge of wins by at least 20 points, there were only 14 of these victories from 2010-14 and only 6 versus Power 5 opponents. Since 2015, these victories have increased to 18 blow outs, with 10 coming against Power 5 opponents over the last 2 years alone. This includes a run of 6 straight 20+ point win blowouts–5 against Power 5 and 3 against ranked teams–in the 2017 season which lends credence to GITF’s recent article about the best run since the Holtz era.
Decrease Bad Losses: B+
Notre Dame is quietly unbeaten in their last 15 games against unranked opponents. While it’s nothing compared to Alabama’s currently absurd NCAA-record 83-game winning streak against unranked opponents it’s a nice start for the Irish that hopefully continues to grow.
The ghost of 2016 still lingers, though. You can’t just ignore the vomit-inducing 5 losses to unranked teams that year. But, if you felt like covering your eyes, the Irish are 25-0 against unranked opponents and 34-1 against such teams stretching back 2013.
Bad losses by many points has been holding steady for Kelly’s teams. Using 15+ point losses as a metric, Notre Dame has lost 10 such games under Kelly and 5 since 2015: Ohio State (’15), USC (’16), Miami (’17), Stanford (’17) and Clemson (’18). This isn’t too far off Holtz’ 8 such losses in 11 years and is far better than the crippling 28 such losses from 1997 to 2009.
Recruit Football-First: B
In 2019 I don’t love this category anymore and would just re-name this for straight recruiting. There’s a clear argument to be made that Notre Dame has done much better with the talent they bring in and that’s an important key to success. Still, there’s been a lot of room for growth in raw talent acquisition and that hasn’t changed much in recent years.
Mental Team Toughness: A
This has always been a strength for most of Kelly’s teams and they’ve looked incredibly stout in this area over the last 2 seasons. We talk a lot about the coaching staff turning things around after 2016 but a huge part of that falls on the players and their belief. I’m fascinated to see how they handle both the early-season trip to Athens this fall and how they react to the outcome of that game for the rest of 2019.
***
Here, Today
So, where do things stand for Notre Dame and Brian Kelly as he enters his 10th season with the Irish becoming only the 5th man to coach in South Bend for at least a decade along with Knute Rockne, Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian, and Lou Holtz?
Most of the grades above have improved or are at least respectable if they haven’t been raised much in recent years. Eight of them were tanking in the “Just Do a Good Job with the Next Hire” analysis linked above and they’ve done a 180-degree turn today. There’s one notable exception as the stink of 2016 still lingers.
Here are 3 areas worth talking about in the near-future:
Recruiting
Notre Dame has done well with the talent it has brought in and still has room to get a lot better on the recruiting trail. Often it feels like many of us are in either camp on that topic but both can be true at the same time.
If I may bring up Kelly as the Gray-Area Coach™ a term I began using years ago to describe how he’s generally done very well for himself but far from great. Right now, the recruiting trail is the best proving ground for this GAC™ manifesting itself within the program.
Notre Dame currently sits 9th in the 247 Sports Composite Team Rankings with hopefully more good news coming later this week. It seems highly unlikely that Brian Kelly will be able to push forward and through a higher ceiling at Notre Dame without a boost or two in recruiting.
I wonder if continued measured success on the field will paper over some of the recruiting misses which is fair to argue, to a point. Still, I also wonder if success on the field only heightens the angst about recruiting if the Irish continue to bump into the elite ranks in the polls, only to come crashing down by the end of the season.
By the Book
One of the characteristics of the Rebuilding Notre Dame series is my penchant to argue, “This topic X is make or break and will set up the future.” I argued that about the 2015 season which wasn’t really true and in November 2016 I argued the following 2017 would be Kelly’s last as no Irish coach had ever hit the re-set button and been able to turn things around in a major way.
Now, I’m going to do it again. The success of Ian Book in 2019 feels absolutely massive for the Notre Dame program. Not only in hopefully continuing to pile up a lot of wins on the field, which is the whole point of this endeavor, but also to combat the narrative of Brian Kelly as unable to manage the growth of quarterbacks in his system.
Book’s success could also open the door to a possible return in 2020 and would greatly increase the odds of a very strong 4-year run.
Best 4-Year Runs at Notre Dame Since 1949
1988-91 (.860)
1970-73 (.860)
1964-67 (.850)
1989-92 (.846)
1990-93 (.826)
Using a 13-game season for projections, 6 more losses over the next 2 seasons gets Notre Dame into the .800 club, 4 losses would tie the 1989-92 run, and 3 losses would beat the top run (.865) since the Leahy days. Lofty goals for sure. Yet, with an experienced quarterback it’s not something to completely dismiss.
Post-Season Success
Let’s say the next 2 years don’t quite match a historic run mentioned above but Notre Dame plays in at least one more major bowl game during the post-season. You sure wouldn’t want to have 4 years of around .800 winning and have the biggest piece of silverware be the Citrus Bowl.
Such is the hard life of being an independent.
We’ve been talking about true post-season success for Brian Kelly for so long that there’s nothing left to say. Losses to end the 2012, 2015, and 2018 seasons are going to hang over the program until they change that with a win over an elite team after the regular season.
Is This Rebuilt?
Admittedly, these are really strange times. Things looked really bleak no fewer than 29 months ago and since then it’s been the most peaceful and assured Notre Dame program in a good long time.
So, is it fair to say Notre Dame is rebuilt now? Are we able to utter such phrases without a National Championship or do we need to at least see a major bowl win first? These are fascinating questions.
Notre Dame Rankings 2005-18
| YEAR | LOSSES | F/+ RANK | AP RANK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2006 | 3 | 19 | 17 |
| 2007 | 9 | 84 | NR |
| 2008 | 6 | 60 | NR |
| 2009 | 6 | 25 | NR |
| 2010 | 5 | 15 | NR |
| 2011 | 5 | 10 | NR |
| 2012 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 2013 | 4 | 26 | 20 |
| 2014 | 5 | 34 | NR |
| 2015 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
| 2016 | 8 | 29 | NR |
| 2017 | 3 | 11 | 11 |
| 2018 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
At worst, the Fighting Irish appear to be meeting expectations a lot more in recent years than at any time in the recent past. Throughout the Brian Kelly era Notre Dame has an average S&P ranking of 16.1 which lines up with the program having the 17th best winning percentage (14th best among Power 5 programs) over that same time frame. What’s more, the Irish have a very good chance of moving past TCU, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Florida State to the 9th best winning percentage among Power 5 teams after 2019.
Perhaps the easiest way of figuring out if Notre Dame is rebuilt is to assess where the future program weaknesses could occur.
Since the 2017 pre-season re-boot of the program Brian Kelly has settled into a much more relaxed and confident role as leader of Notre Dame. He doesn’t appear anywhere near as stressed out as his predecessors who coached this long in South Bend. Can this last for a number of years? How will he react if dealt with serious controversy or a run of poor form from the team?
Chip Long doesn’t seem long for Notre Dame as he enters his 3rd year. Clark Lea had a very promising first season and will be pressured to keep the Irish defense as one of the better units in the country. A change in the fortunes of either of these men could derail the program, especially since “hire top-notch assistants” became a renewed emphasis in 2017 and is partly responsible for maintaining Kelly’s demeanor mentioned above.
Developing the quarterback position really can’t be overstated. Should Book struggle it might be back to the drawing board. Should Book not return for 2020 and Jurkovec or another quarterback aren’t up to snuff it would set up a challenging 2020 season with a very green defense.
Player development has been working at an extremely high rate. From the likes of Julian Love and Miles Boykin, to Julian Okwara and Ian Book, this is a tremendous run of turning decent recruits into stars in college. History says this has a ceiling as the Cotton Bowl was a reminder and over time it’s not particularly sustainable. Having this area dry up could be cause for concern in the future.
Nevertheless, Kelly has survived the program re-boot and is poised to thrive at Notre Dame in a consistent way that hasn’t been seen in a couple decades. He scratched back-to-back 10-win seasons off the list last year and heads into 2019 trying to reach greater heights.
Mental Team Toughness “A” seems like a very generous grade. 2016 was obviously a disaster, even with injuries they couldn’t beat teams they were clearly better than (highest ranked S&P+ 8 loss team ever, sad laugh). Then 2017 when they needed some toughness most heading down to Florida for a prime time game they fell apart and didn’t recover to salvage a win over Stanford.
Thing go wrong when Love leaves the Cotton Bowl and not only the defense, but the offense also falls apart. With Love playing defense for 16 minutes of the Cotton Bowl the offense gained 111 yards and kicked a FG. With Love out on defense for the last 44 minutes of the game the ND offense gains 137 yards and scores no points. When Love left the game it was tied 3-3 and ND was out-gaining Clemson 111 to 45.
Maybe if you grade them on a curve of mental toughness of college students you can get there, but that’s the one that really doesn’t sound right to me.
That’s fair, especially if you’re really weighting heavily on the 2016 season.
The last 2 years though, basically pointing to 3 of 4 total losses really isn’t much evidence for a lack of team toughness IMO. Truthfully, I don’t really love this Key that much mostly because everyone has their own definition of team mental toughness.
When you’re a top 11-ish team three of the last four years and not dwelling on that fourth year there’s a limited number of relevant examples, but some kind of stage-fright seems to be basically part of the deal cheering for ND, and it’s worst in the games that mean the most. January of 2013, right?
Alabama scores a rushing TD on the best rushing defense in the country on the first drive. That’s fine. Eifert probably doesn’t get his toe down on a 30ish yard pass on Alabama’s side of the field and ND has to punt. They’re a toe away from moving the ball. Alabama muffs the ensuing kick, recovered by ND and the refs take the ball away on a doubly bad call because Farley made zero contact with the punt returner AND he was being blocked in the back at the time, so even if he had made contact it wouldn’t have been kick catch interference. The team fell totally apart at this point. They didn’t manage to do anything that looked like football for the rest of the half and by then it was out of reach.
2012 Alabama was likely better than ND, but ESPN writes the history of a blowout of a team that shouldn’t have been there.
2018 Clemson was better than ND, but ESPN writes the history of a blowout of a team that shouldn’t have been there. [Despite playing them closer than an Alabama team that totally deserved to be there.]
2017 ND was likely better than Miami, but ESPN writes the history of a blowout of a team that never should have been talked about as a playoff contender.
It’s a story older than Brian Kelly that the program has sporadic compete problems when the stage gets really big. It was the entire story of Brady Quinn’s senior season when he was incredible every single game. Except when it really mattered against Michigan. Except when it really mattered against USC. Except when it really mattered in the Sugar Bowl. But other than that it was the best season ever by a ND quarterback.
Couldn’t you just say Notre Dame in nearly all of those cases wasn’t better/talented enough to win against stronger opponents?
To me, mental toughness isn’t really a primary driver in that discussion–although when you’re talking about blowout losses it does come into play a little more.
I think that makes sense. We haven’t quite had the horses to beat the really big names. Miami blowout, on the other hand…….sad.
Love wasn’t out for 44 minutes, he played in the second half but the damage was done. Coincidentally I just rewatched the Cotton Bowl. Yeah, still depressing. For a meaningful chunk of the second quarter Love, Okwara, and Gilman were all off the field with injuries.
Watching Dante Vaughn play was brutal. The kid has Velcro, he cannot shed a block, kinda like Mack couldn’t ever break a tackle. When Love came back in, it was striking how he could get off blocks and make tackles.
Speaking of superstars, the freshman receiver from Clemson who beat Vaughn for td’s is what I mean in other posts about true difference makers. Vaughn actually wasn’t that bad on those two passes, the other guy was just that good.
These are my favorite kinds of pieces, Murtaugh. Thank you!
A couple questions:
1. When we think about recruiting, do you assign grades in a meaningfully different way than the recruiting rankings? If so, how? If not, what is your cutoff for an A / A-?
2. What is your list (approximately) of coaches for developing the QB position? One of my major questions has always been, what is a reasonable expectation for an ND coach on QB development. Weis had 4 out 5 years with a good QB but only was here five years and that was 2 QBs. Besides the now NFL Kingsbury, who else produces consistently good QBs?
3. What programs would you give an A in pushing the envelope with technology? The last one I knew about (probably no longer true) is Oregon. Or, to reframe the question – how do you think ND could get an A here?
I have more but I’ll start with those.
1. To me, finishing 12th in the rankings is about a B grade. I think you have to be pushing really close to Top 5 to get a grade of A/A- because Notre Dame’s ceiling can be that high. It’s fair to say maybe not quite matching the likes of Clemson, Bama, Georgia, OSU at the moment but being right there in the mix in 5th or so is possible.
2. Good point! Probably not talked about enough. I think most of the top teams are on pretty solid runs of developing quarterbacks. Urban Meyer (RIP) had a very good run. Clemson kind of a historic run. Alabama is tough to beat. But yeah, most of the country is much more up and down.
3. That’s tough to say, which probably makes comparisons difficult. I don’t know enough about other programs but I have always thought ND should be a leader in this area and not a follower. By the way, I saw they are apparently renovating the weight room/workout areas in the Gug right now.
Excellent article, one thing I’ve always thought could supercharge ND’s prospects is for Kelly and staff to nail a QB prospect and making him into one of the best players in the country. I think of someone like Lamar Jackson who was a high 3-star on 247 and raised Louisville’s ceiling almost entirely by himself which covered up Bobby Petrino’s rotting corpse of a program. We’ve hit on diamonds in the rough for sure, but not at a level that can make a true national championship contender.
The most important goal should be to win the big games, Captain Obvious I know. Clemson before 2015 was pretty similar to us, going 10-4, 11-2, 11-2 and 10-3 in four consecutive years but failing to score truly impactful wins until they knocked us off in the rain game. I just wish we could have some of these massive games at home instead of having to go to Athens and Ann Arbor this year.
A true superstar is the difference maker, for sure.
This is THE missing ingredient at ND football and has been for years. The championship teams have superstar offensive players at qb and wide receiver, often at rb as well.
Great as Manti was, and he WAS a superstar in college, we had no comparable talent on offense. Tight end isn’t sufficiently important. We need a Reggie Bell, Vince Evans, Tua, Murray, Randy Moss, Lamar Jackson, the kid at Clemson now and his predecessor plus one at qb for Clemson etc. We used to get our share of these guys, don’t seem able to do that anymore.
Will Fuller ?
Fuller was very good but I wouldn’t put him in the same class as those I mentioned, personally.
I’d put Fuller in that class, but needless to say, you need more than 1 of that kind of guy on an offense. The 15 team was really close, with Fuller and ‘dude-adjacent’ guys like Prosise and Kizer, but wasn’t quite there.
The original article was what pulled me to your old site Eric. It fascinated me and the amount of thought that went into it blew me away.
Yall know by now that I am very positive about this team, probably too positive at times. Having said that, I love the direction this team is going, I share your f concern about our top coaches leaving, but he did a great job last time. Hopefully, he handles it with the same success when he faces that situation again.
“Push the envelope with technology” – Does this include the use of analytics? Basketball is strongly moving towards analytic maximization, I think there’s still a wealth of room for growth in this with football. At a minimum I’m still waiting for some coach to come along and start using 4th down analytics rather than 4th = punt. Though there’s plenty of other applications for it as well!
There’s that HS coach in Arkansas who never punts, always goes for 2, and always does onside kicks. And he’s ridiculously successful. But he’ll never get a shot at the college level because it’s too far out there for any AD to take a shot.
Interesting, never heard of this guy!
I’m not so crazy to think punting is never the right option, but going for it is the better choice more often than not, but tradition has everyone doing the opposite.
Analytics would also include things like spreading it out at the goal line rather than bringing in loads of TEs (which merits have already been discussed on this site).
Kevin Kelley is his name.
Any relation…
…
…
to Maurice Stovall?
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While we won’t always lose, there is certainly a pool of 4 and 5* players who do not want the academic rigor or social life ND has to offer. Couple that with the mandate to graduate in 3.5 years (which most ND students don’t do -although the players do have summer school every year) and our pool of elite recruits is smaller than Alabama or Clemson.
Now factor in the fact that offers are going out sooner and players evaluated even earlier. I don’t know what that means for our academic evaluation of these kids, but there is no way a sophomore can possibly have anything other than a contingent offer. It also means that many kids with the top rankings are kids that grew early. A late bloomer or a project like our current commit from Germany will be looked down on in the recruiting rankings. However, it is there where ND needs to expand its pool of top players.
I think recruiting the big names is important, but the development of kids like Love, Boykin, etc. is more critical. The ones that truly matter are the ones like Tranquill. He didn’t get a lot of love when he was recruited, but he did pretty well. If you can turn two lower recruits into college stars each year, you have met a minimum threshold, and we can close our recruiting gap.
We need to make up for the lack of recruiting stars with relentless focus on development and sticking with a system, on both sides of the ball, where a player who might be limited can hide their limitations.
Other than Tom Brady, who is hardly an elite athlete, and Rob Gronkowski, I don’t believe the Patriots have had a single offensive player who would be considered an HOF caliber player, at least during their time in New England. On the defensive side, they have had a few more standouts, but more than any other team their parts are interchangeable, and they are quick to remove players that are not working. On both sides of the ball, New England has a system that they are faithful to and they execute it ruthlessly.
I firmly believe that the talent gap is not that wide that it can’t be overcome with development and ruthless execution. New England gets the most out of their players and puts them in a position to win. We need to do that more. I think that is embedded in a number of the points. I know college is more about the Jimmy and Joes than the Xs and Os, but the latter can overcome the slight deficiencies we have against Alabama and Clemson.
I know we measure a recruiting class when they arrive. The better measure would be as they leave, or perhaps enter their senior year. Then you could measure the coaches as coaches and not as salesmen.
Interesting thoughts.
I think the development you’re talking about has to lead to enough success on the field that it ultimately boosts recruiting. It’s an excellent formula but I do think it has limitations with college students, coaching turnover, and the constant struggle against better talent on the biggest stage.
Notre Dame has never won big without elite recruiting. That has to come back at some point, I’d hope.
New England’s “system” relies on having an elite quarterback who will take a below-market salary because he is a second earner in his household. They also have been smarter than the rest of the league (until recently, at least) in terms of accumulating draft picks. Neither of those is particularly replicable in the college game.
Now hold on there. Our QB can absolutely have a sugar mama, she just can’t be affiliated with the University or classified as a booster.
/glares at Kim Dunbar
The “my wife makes a lot of money” shtick is for yucks and to distract that his salary cap hit suspiciously took a big hit in the middle of the decade right around the time the Patriots got in bed with a company he runs (TB12). How the NFL hasn’t addressed that type of circumvention defies logic.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/report-patriots-pay-a-brady-owned-company-run-by-suspect-partner/
It seems to me that “technology” is limiting. I think using the term “innovation” is more embracing. I think using some very ancient “technology” like yoga. innovative bodywork, herbal supplements and other modalities would benefit the team and lead to fewer injuries, better endurance, more speed and stronger players. Add to that things like sstrobe lights and techniques to increase hand eye coordination and field of vision would also help. There is so much that football teams and especially ND does not use. One easy thing to do is cold therapy and a regular basis. like take cold showers for 10 minutes a day or lay in ice water every day. The US volley ball team used to and maybe still does have players go into a room at-220F for 3 min. wearing a speedo and flip flops. Read up about Wim Hof and what he does like staying in ice water for 2 hours. They need to think outside the box.
We need to innovate the verbiage.
You can have ALL my time in the ice bath. I’m generous that way.
Sorry I missed this, just flew in to LA. Superb article, concur with Russell et al on the tremendous quality and interest of these kinds of analysis.
I will confine my remarks to the mental toughness category, and side with Eric on this one. It would have been extremely easy for the PLAYERS to tank after 2016. But instead in 2017 they bought in to the entire gamut of Kelly@reboot — led by some very impressive senior leaders.
Lou Holtz (then) and Lou Somogyi (now) talk about the critical importance of “senior” (i.e., team veterans) leadership. And that it can be a predictor of high performance. I think the Clemson D-line sticking around for 2018 is a case in point. That is where I am concerned about 2019. As is (to his credit) BK, who without overmuch throwing his players under the bus made it very clear that this was a big issue in 2016. And who then rebooted his whole attention to fostering tough senior leadership. And who has notably postponed naming captains for this year.