It’s been 4 months since our last scholarship update as the summer recruiting world for Notre Dame slowed down tremendously once July arrived. As such, not a ton has changed for the Irish and their scholarship numbers although there is always plenty to talk about as we are a couple months away from the early Signing Day period.
Let’s begin.
Out of Eligibility Following 2019
WR Chris Finke
WR Chase Claypool
OL Trevor Ruhland
DE Julian Okwara
DE Khalid Kareem
DE Jamir Jones
DE Daelin Hayes
LB Asmar Bilal
CB Donte Vaughn
CB Troy Pride
S Jalen Elliott
The big news here is the shoulder injury to senior Daelin Hayes who has already announced he will return for a fifth year in 2020. The program was attempting to get a 4-game maximum redshirt out of Jamir Jones but that plan has been scrapped with the Hayes injury, especially with Jones picking up 3 sacks so far this season.
2020-21 Academic Classes
17 Verbal Commits
22 Sophomores
24 Juniors
17 Seniors
10 Graduates
90 Total Scholarships
Something I will keep doing is comparing these numbers to the previous year. This time last October we ran an update where the projected scholarships were sitting at 92 overall with the 2019 verbals including 19 players. Notre Dame would go on to sign 22 players in last year’s class, so is there room for a handful more bodies in the 2020 class?
Maybe! Keep reading below for a thorough answer.
Since the early summer only two players have been removed from the roster, including 2018 safety Derrik Allen who transferred to Georgia Tech and 2017 defensive tackle Darnell Ewell who medically retired. Four new commits from 2020 have since been brought into the fold prior to the football season beginning:
WR Xavier Watts
WR Jay Brunelle
CB Caleb Offord
CB Landon Bartleson
After a hot start, it hasn’t been a great finish to date as all four recruits are 3-stars and 4 out of the lowest 7 rated players in the 2020 class.
List of Eligible 2020 Grad Students
Tier I
QB Ian Book
S Alohi Gilman
OL Liam Eichenberg
OL Tommy Kraemer
DE Ade Ogundeji
RB Tony Jones
DE Daelin Hayes
Tier II
CB Shawn Crawford
WR Javon McKinley
LS John Shannon
Tier III
LB Jonathan Jones
For reference, last year we had 8 eligible grad students and only 4 of them (Finke, Ruhland, Bilal, Crawford) came back.
Until we hear otherwise we will believe the scuttlebutt on campus that both Ian Book and Alohi Gilman are highly interested in testing the NFL waters, come what may of those wishes. If that happens, you can see a situation develop where only 5 out of the the 10 above (Shaun Crawford has already stated he will not return for a 6th season for which he is eligible) return to South Bend.
***CLICK HERE FOR THE CURRENT DEPTH CHART***
A few games ago, Tony Jones looked like he was clearly a tier II candidate but now I don’t see a way he moves on. We’ve seen Javon McKinley go from completely off the radar to a backup seeing the field a little bit–is that enough for him to stick around with new blood coming in next year? Additionally, Notre Dame is carrying 2 long-snappers for 2019 will they do that again for 2020?
All signs point to Jonathan Jones–relegated to the back end of a deep middle linebacker depth chart as the second oldest player at the position–moving on after this season. The only other person who could leave the roster it seems is junior tight end Cole Kmet if there’s enough NFL interest. Right now, he’s probably a 4th round pick at best and with his baseball career he’s likely to return for his senior season.
So, how much room for 2020?
It may not matter, really! Odds are heavily in favor of Notre Dame adding Ohio State transfer Isaiah Pryor who entered The Portal™ recently and visited for the USC game. He has two years of eligibility remaining–and if Gilman does not return–would be a much-needed 5th safety on the roster for 2020.
If the program lands Pryor that softens the blow a bit of no safeties committed for the current cycle. Only 3 out of the top 33 safeties in the ’20 class are uncommitted at the moment so unless there’s a flip late in the game Notre Dame is likely looking at taking a flyer on a developmental prospect or two or standing pat with the crew they have right now.
2020 ROSTER
POSITION – PLAYERS – TOTAL ELIGIBILITY
QUARTERBACK – 4 – 12
+ Tyler Buchner 2021
RUNNING BACK – 7 – 19
WIDE RECEIVER – 12 – 35
+ Deion Colzie & Lorenzo Styles 2021
TIGHT END – 6 – 16
+Cane Berrong 2021
OFFENSIVE TACKLE – 8 – 23
+ Blake Fisher 2021
CENTER – 2 – 7
OFFENSIVE GUARD – 5 – 12
+Greg Crippen 2021*
DEFENSIVE END – 9 – 26
DEFENSIVE TACKLE – 9 – 27
+Gabriel Rubio 2021
MIKE LINEBACKER – 6 – 17
BUCK LINEBACKER – 3 – 8
ROVER – 3 – 8
CORNERBACK – 7 – 26
SAFETY – 5 – 13
KICKER – 1 – 1
PUNTER – 1 – 3
LONG SNAPPER – 2 – 5
***CLICK HERE FOR THE CURRENT SCHOLARSHIP CHART***
The first thing that jumps out is the projected 2020 depth on offense is really good…a little too good in fact. Right now for 2019, the Irish have 38 scholarships on offense and this is projecting 6 more bodies a year from now. Obviously, that number is likely to go down. Here are some thoughts:
*Book doesn’t return at quarterback, already mentioned above.
*Seven players at running back isn’t tenable, especially if you’re betting on incoming freshman Chris Tyree being in the rotation from day one. At minimum, you’d have to move Avery Davis back to corner or at least to slot receiver.
*Receiver is probably fine as Notre Dame is losing two starters (Claypool/Finke), McKinley might not return, and even if you move Davis to a slot role there’s always a chance of further roster attrition. For example, the situation with Kevin Austin cannot be described as firm. There’s also a couple other players who are not close to playing and becoming upperclassmen–a graduating in 3 years situation could apply.
*Six tight ends is probably too many, although as mentioned Kmet may leave early and even if he doesn’t you’re losing both him and Wright after 2020 anyway. I would imagine George Takacs will have some soul-searching to do after this season because he may be 5th or 6th on the depth chart as a redshirt sophomore.
*Notre Dame traditionally will stick with 13 players on the offensive line. It’s 14 right not but all indications were that the program was ready to deal with a medical retirement issue with 5th-year Trevor Ruhland. Going into 2020, having 15 players on the offensive line is a bit high. However, this position traditionally doesn’t see many transfers and they will be losing 3 starters (Eichenberg, Kraemer, Hainsey) after 2020 so they may want to carry extra scholarship or two for development.
Things look really well put together in the defensive front seven. The only issue there is sorting out a little further who is really a Mike vs. Buck linebacker and balancing things out there more.
Corner is worrisome as Troy Pride, Shaun Crawford, and Donte Vaughn are all walking out the door soon. Yet, there are enough bodies for 2020 it’s just mostly everyone is young and unproven. Maybe you want to take a fourth corner for 2020 because one of those players is likely forcing their way on to the field next fall.
Safety is just as worrisome, although the presence of Kyle Hamilton soothes a variety of concerns. The team could really, really use Gilman coming back to allow someone like Houston Griffith the time to develop into a starter instead of the pressure of having to be The Guy next to Hamilton for 2020.
Literally no one cared about this as few as 2 months ago but having Jonathan Doerer for only one more season after 2019 feels wrong. I had to go back and double check that he was a part-time kickoff specialist for 2017 and now we’d really like to get that year back. Of course, preferred walk-on Harrison Leonard is in the pipeline and will have 3 years after Doerer leaves. Still, the scouting for a new scholarship kicker is likely going to happen sooner rather than later.
You describe WR as fine — do you mean that simply from a numbers perspective? Because when I look at the possible two-deep at WR next year, I get a little nervous. Young? Coaches rave about him, but he’s underperforming. Keys? Haven’t seen much from him. Lenzy? Has killer speed, but hasn’t shown anything as a pass catcher. Austin? Talented, but I’m skeptical until I actually see him dressed and on the field. McKinley? Some flashes of potential this year, but often disappears.
I definitely agree, and yes I was speaking from just the numbers.
Although, I think we will be okay at the position next year. Keys and Lenzy are probably going to develop very quickly which will be nice. There might not be a No. 1 guy like Claypool but Austin could be that type of guy. Adding Johnson as an impact freshman could be nice. If Kmet comes back it could be a nice little group to pair with a bunch of speed, at least.
Thinking that Del Alexander can develop anyone is a big assumption.
Can’t be much worse than the production we’re getting from this year’s group, though.
Nice outlook, glad to have some bye week time to give this a look. Dane Brugler from The Athletic today named Kmet as one of five “under the radar first round options for next spring” so you’d think if that was the case that he might be gone, unless he just really, really wants to play baseball one more spring and come back as a senior.
If that does happen (or even if not) I wonder what the future holds for Wright. Tremble passed him up, does Wright stay? Grad transfer before playing out eligibility 2020? Something tells me one of Kmet/Wright won’t be back next fall.
Not terribly worried about what that means for the position, but it’s crazy to think of the potential talent swing from best case scenario (Kmet comes back) to going down to Tremble and not much else proven in a worst case scenario.
I promised myself that with Boykin’s draft stock going from 0 to 60 so absurdly I’d never question someone with the right skill set going really high in the draft.
But, 1st round for Kmet seems really, really high.
The league is averaging about 1 tight end in the first each draft, is he the best eligible guy in the country right now? I honestly don’t know that answer. Maybe he is? I guess it’s splitting hairs and he could go in the late 2nd round and he’d be completely fine with that projection and go pro anyway.
Yeah, if Troy Niklas can go mid-2nd round, who knows. Anything could be possible. A quick google search and 30 seconds of research showed there are no real impact TEs out there this spring – a kid from Missouri and Vanderbilt looked like the only two 1st-2nd rounders I saw, though it didn’t include juniors like Kmet. Past three drafts there have been at least 3 tight ends drafted in the top 50 (and 5 TE’s drafted in the top 45 in 2017) so I don’t think there’s a lot of positional bias to getting drafted high and agree first round is pretty lofty, thus why “under the radar options” and not a guarantee.
Along with Book, how Kmet plays out will be very interesting as far as what decision he makes. He’ll definitely have options, and who knew that the draw of baseball and playing 2 sports might actually be a huge blessing for the football program to potentially get him back for a 4th season if he wants to play more baseball, which it seems will be a major consideration at the very least.
Iowa has ~8 TE’s on their roster, so go ahead and pencil 3-4 of them to go in the first 2 Rds
Man, what a healthy roster. Not everyone is an NFL prospect, but outside of CB, there aren’t many positions I’m worried about for next year, or really the next 2-3.
Here’s the roster with recruiting stars per 247 composite – top 100 recruits are starred. (tried to align with the position counts above)
QB – 4* (Jurk), 3 (Clark), 4 (Pyne)
RB – 4 (TJJ), 3 (Armstrong), 3 (Smith), 3 (C’Bo), 4 (Williams), 4* (Tyree),
WR – 4 (McKinley?), 3 (Young), 4* (Austin pleeeease), 4 (Lenzy), 4 (Keys), 4 (Jones), 3 (KA-R), 3 (Hart), 4* (Johnson), 3 (Brunelle), 3 (Watts)
TE – 4* (Kmet), 4* (Wright), 4 (Takacs), 3 (Tremble), 4* (Bauman), 4 (Mayer)
OL – loaded with studs.
DE – 4 (Hayes), 3 (Ade), 3 (Wardlow), 3 (Ju Adem), 4 (Foskey), 4 (NaNa), 4 (Cross), 3 (der Burger), 4* (Botelho), 4 (Mills)
DT – 3 (MTA), 3 (Hinish), 4 (Ja Adem), 4 (Lacey), 4 (Spears), 4 (Keanaaina)
LB – 4 (Adams), 3 (Wu), 3 (JGH), 3 (White), 4* (Simon), 4* (Lamb), 4 (Bauer), 3 (Ovie), 3 (Moala), 4 (Ekwonu), 4 (Bertrand), 3 (Kiser), 3 (Liufau)
CB – 4 (Davis?), 3 (Bracy), 3 (Wilkins), 4 (Rutherford), 4 (Wallace), 3 (Bartleson), 3 (Offord)
S – 4 (Roberston), 4* (Griffith), 3 (Brown), 4* (Hamilton), 4 (Ajavon)
I’d appreciate updates if any of these have left ND, or medically retired. Not all the counts line up, and there are definitely a few guys I didn’t know where to put, and aren’t even sure they are on the team anymore. These come from their recruitment, so I’m confident things have changed and I didn’t try to reconcile with the 18S depth chart (this already was more time than I should have spent at work).
I’m not an expert but outside of position changes this looks pretty good. The one guy that I noticed that is not on the team anymore (due to a medical hardship if I remember correctly) is Adams at LB
Robertson is a wideout and Wilkins is a receiver.
And vice versa.
This we would move Robertson back to S? Considering the talent we have coming in to WR, and need at S? He was no slouch of a recruit, but at this point, seems like a practice/emergency body at best.
I think it’s very possible.
Question for the staff/anybody here: It seems like every time we move a recruit off of his primary high school or freshman year position, the player ends up making little to no real contribution. (Obviously Tillery was a great call by the staff to have him play at his lower rated position, but he was still no slouch there in high school) This seems especially true with the DBs/WRs. It seems we always have way too many WRs on the the roster and not enough DBs, or we have a mismatch in the number of safeties vs. CBs we should have on the roster, yet we’re moving guys in a manner that doesn’t really help balance this out.
Is this an issue that other programs have too? Is this even an issue that we have as a program, or am I perhaps just overestimating the number of times that these position changes have failed?
Player movement are weird things.
Sometimes it means the person is so buried at position X that for the player’s sake we’ll take a flyer at them trying position Y. In that case, they usually aren’t living up to their perceived potential so might as well see if they can jump start into a valuable piece at another position. If not, nothing is lost because they’re kind of dead weight already.
Sometimes it means that the player is incredibly gifted and the staff wants to get them on the field as soon as possible. If they are playing a position that is loaded, they might move them to a weaker position to get their “best 11 on the field,” the drawback with this is the player may not be playing at their strongest position. It may improve things short term, but can slow the development of the player if they later are moved back to their “natural position” which they haven’t been practicing and perfecting.
The best case scenarios are when the move finds a place where the player excels and becomes permanent.
Tillery almost doesn’t count in my mind, because from the very beginning of his college career he was always on the Dline. Two examples that did seem to work would be Niklas and Prosise who both started on the defensive side of the ball at ND.
KeiVarae Russell started as an RB too or was at least recruited for a bit with that in mind, if I’m not mistaken.
It is an interesting question to wonder about if the position changes lead to failure or if it’s a chicken/egg situation that failure was going to happen at the initial position anyways (i.e. Avery Davis was never going to be a college QB, might as well change him to where he can help get on the field somehow, even if that’s gone to a big extreme with multiple switches).
Bennet Jackson started as a WR.
In particular, the moves across the LOS have gone very poorly unless the staff moved them as soon as they arrived. Tillery and Russell were both playing on defense before the season opener of their freshman years. Staying on the same side of the ball has worked out favorably more often: Drue, Theo, etc.
Cam Hart was recently moved to corner. But, who knows, he might be back at receiver in the spring the way we seem to jerk some of these kids around (e.g. Avery Davis).
I was just thinking the other day that I would be interested in seeing what the scholly numbers are like for next year. Wish granted!
It seems like they should be trying to get a CB from The Portal of Transfer. That would seem to balance out the numbers better than (another) 3-star freshman.
However! If Kelly can convince Book and Gilman to come back, Daelin Hayes comes back healthy, and Kevin Austin stays on the team, this could be a legit national title contender next year. Our starters next year could be:
QB: 5th year Ian Book
RB: Jones/Tyree
WR: Austin/Young/Lenzy
TE: Kmet
O-line: our entire current o-line
D-line: Hayes/MTA/Hinish/Ogundeji
LB: Wu/White/Simon or Bauer
CB: Bracy/Transfer Portal
S: Hamilton/Gilman
That is a legit title contender! The only two non-top-20-nationally units on the team would probably be WR and CB, and WR has so much young talent that they could end up there anyways. CB… well, that’s a problem. My kingdom for Paulson Adebo.
Relatedly, they need to find a nice NFL job (or Denson-like head coaching job) for Todd Lyght.
Who are you and what have you done with nd09hls12?
The only two non-top-20-nationally units on the team would be the two units that you most desperately need to be top-20-nationally units in order to win a national title, unfortunately.
IMO Clark Lea’s done enough to justify faith. I think they’ll develop around the weaknesses. And CB’s can be masked to an extent with an excellent pass rush and safety help over the top, both of which can be reasonably expected.
Also, though perhaps biased, I feel like the receiving group would be just fine if Kmet is back and Austin is out of the doghouse. Add in Lenzy, Keys and that’s a great group of weapons that should be able to do a lot.
Exactly what have you seen from Lenzy, Keys and Young to justify that much confidence? Based on what I have seen, none have shown flashes of being a #1 receiver. For all of them, their best plays have come on runs. I agree with getting the ball in the hands of speeed, but the fact that they are getting the ball on runs and not passes, implies that the coaches and Book have issues with their pass catching abilities. Keys has made a couple of nice catches, and Kelly has raved about his hands. Book just doesn’t seem to throw to him. Austin has flashed a little, but has not gotten opportunities. Of the 4, Austin could be a #1. The other three are intriquing, but complimentary. If Austin does not stay, at least one of the incoming freshmen will get a shot.
Obviously, one of them will be a #1 on this team. The question is are they a true #1 on an elite team. I would argue that Claypool is not a #1 on an elite team. He is certainly a solid #3 pushing for #2. I would hesitate to call USC elite based on the last few years, but is there any WR on our team, Claypool included, that would push ANY of their three WRs to the bench? I don’t think so. Lenzy, Keys and Young have elite, or near elite, speed. They have yet to show the hands to be elite WRs. That could be scheme, it could be Book not looking at them because he has a magnetic attraction to Claypool and Kmet and rarely gets to his third read, or it could be that they do not have good hands. I recall Herbie pointing out that in the Lousiville game, Book did not even notice that half the field wasn’t covered and Keys was by himself on one side. Book still threw (incomplete as I recall) to Claypool who was well covered.
Ultimately, in a numbers game, I doubt McKinley comes back. I am glad he is finally showing flashes, which is great for a freshman but not great for a senior. He should be contributing consistently by now. When he is on, he seems to be as good as Claypool. When he is not, he is a ghost.
“Exactly what have you seen from Lenzy, Keys and Young to justify that much confidence? Based on what I have seen, none have shown flashes of being a #1 receiver”
Nothing, but that’s why the top 2 weapons would be Kmet and Austin, likely in that order. I’m very high on the talent Austin has, and Kmet would be a first round caliber TE next year, which for me is good enough to having a great receiving group.
Bigger picture I was probably thinking that Notre Dame is 9th this year nationally at yards/play at 6.8. Lose Claypool (and Finke) and nothing else* according to this thought process. Bring back the whole line, add Tyree and Johnson, healthy Armstrong and you don’t think they’re at least similar? (*This exercise was also assuming the return of a 5th year Book).
I like Claypool but if you could hypothtically replace every snap he’s taken this season with Austin in there instead, IMO, not too much is changed about the offense. To me, if you bring back Kmet and you have a version of Austin who isn’t in the doghouse, you’re going to have a great ND offense in 2020. But it’s probably a longshot that Austin is a total clean slate, Kmet doesn’t leave, Book is back, etc and things could be fairly unsettled going into next season.
I don’t think you can be an elite team if your top weapon is a TE. We would have the same inability to stretch the field to create openings.
I am also very high on Austin, and think he can be a #1 on an elite team based on the little he showed last season, just flashes as you would expect from a freshman. A true #1, even on a team that greatly favors experience, still would force his way on to the field, as we all seem to expect Tyree and Johnson to do.
If everyone comes back, as you project, I think we are better (if Tyree and Johnson are as good as advertised). We can certainly go toe to toe with Bama, Clemson, LSU, etc.
“I don’t think you can be an elite team if your top weapon is a TE. We would have the same inability to stretch the field to create openings. ”
Agreed. But just as food for thought receptions are 21-18 Kmet over Claypool since the former came back. ND isn’t exactly a very vertical offense, but they’re still doing well in yards, scoring and yard/play. I guess we’ll see if it can continue, but I don’t see any reason anyone on their schedule is going to stop them, either.
On this schedule, probably not. Michigan’s defense is highly ranked, but that includes games against Army (who never passes), Rutgers (who would be relegated to high school in a sane world) and Illinois (paying Lovie Smith so the Bears don’t have to). I am sure I am forgetting another patsy somewhere. They were run over and left for dead by Wisconsin. They played Iowa in a game that set back football at least a decade. Some would call it a defensive battle. Both teams offenses shot themselves in the foot so often, I was surprised either could walk off the field.
And based on the bowl projections, we won’t play an elite team there either. Boise State, Pitt, Wake Forest or Virginia. Yuck.
My point is that to be an elite team, you need to be able to stretch the field and attack anywhere you want. We are not there. Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, tOSU, LSU (this year) and Georgia can score from anywhere on the field at any time. Even against good defenses. They don’t always, but they can. Clemson hasn’t played anyone good this year and will likely finish the year with at most one victory against a team that is ranked at the end of the year. Alabama has also not really played anyone good this year. I know both have played TAMU, and perhaps they would be better if not for their strength of schedule, but they are, at best, the 4th best team in the SEC West and maybe 6th overall in the conference.
I think the reason we can’t score from anywhere is a combination of factors. Book’s arm strength (although I think that is blamed more than it should be), the quality of our WRs and the lack of speed in the ones Book and the coaches trust, the lack of a home run running back (reverse to Lenzy aside) and scheme. I truthfully don’t know how to balance them.
We have proven we can move down the field on more or less sustained drives against top defenses against Georgia, Virginia and USC, and will likely show that against MIchigan. The final drive against Georgia showed the inability to stretch the field. Not that we would have thrown deep, but the fact that we can’t/don’t, meant all their defenders could be within 25 yards of the LOS. Awfully crowded when that happens. Forcing a team to defend a streaking Lenzy, Young or Keys deep opens a lot of other things.
Yeah, I think we’re mostly on the same page as far as where the offense is. I mean if ND had a hypothetical “LSU type” transformation and went spread offense a lot and aggressively played young WRs like Austin, Johnson, Lenzy and Keys in the same formation, I think they could stretch the field more like other explosive offenses.
But that’s not their DNA. They’re gonna run 2 TE sets with Kmet and Tremble, they’ll probably have a lot of 2RB formations with Armstrong, Jones and Tyree next year. They’re more designed for ball control type offenses than pure Oklahoma/LSU chuck it vertical a lot.
Which I mean, kinda is what it is. ND’s point/game is inching up towards 40 this year at least, they’re not standing out as negatively as say last year (with some Wimbush) where their offense statistically really looked out of place compared to the other playoff teams. Hopefully the strong recruiting continues and they can open it up but it will be interesting to see if Long sticks with what he’s done with his TE’s and lots of drag routes and jet sweep type stuff that attacks the edges of defense and tries to get in space rather than really hits vertically down the field first.
I think there’s some wisdom, especially with elite o-lines, to try and grind down opposition late in games by wearing on them, but it’s tough to ignore mindsets like Lincoln Riley and LSU and even Texas where they’re very modern and very explosive. I do agree with a point you were getting to that all those teams (and Clemson and Bama) have QBs capable of making long throws at any time, and ND doesn’t have that right now which probably matters a ton too.
I think we are on the same page. I just wish I knew whether it was Book, the WRs, the scheme or some other factor holding us back.
I like the idea of grinding teams down, but I also like the idea of the back being able to break one and take it to the house, like a Josh Adams or a Jerome Bettis. Part of the reason those guys could break long runs, because neither was a Dexter speedster was that the team could attack the entire field and forced defenders to spread out. A 4.6 back with a step and an angle can outrun a 4.3 safety or CB to the endzone. Think Lee Becton against FSU.
I think Book can throw deeper than people give him credit for. He throws those stupid WR screens without a problem. Those go about 25 yards in the air. That would be 18 yards downfield, assuming a 7 step drop. He can throw it 25 yards downfield relatively well. Over 30 and it is dicey. However, 25 is good enough. That is a lot of square yards for 7 to defend. Lots of room for receiver to get open against a zone.
If you look at a lot of the Bama, Clemson, OU highlight reels, the throws are about 20-25 yards, maybe 30 in the air and then WRs outrun people to the endzone because they have either found a soft spot in the zone or beaten man coverage. If the zone only has to cover 15 yards of field, far fewer softspots.
You don’t get bonus points for time of possession, otherwise we lose to USC. You win by being more efficient in your possessions. Essentially, possessions are even in every game. I think we hurt our efficiency by not being more aggressive. That said, if we can run for 300 and throw for 200 every game. Sign me up.
I very much dispute that these are the two most important units. I would honestly put both of them towards the bottom.
The least two important units in football are RB and LB. After that, it’s probably TE, then safeties, then CB, then WR.
But, perhaps to your point, in that scenario, we would be good to very good at the most important positions: QB, d-line, o-line. We would also be elite at TE and potentially very good at safety. The only thing that we would likely be power-5 average or worse at is CB.
Our O-Line has consistently been an elite unit 90% of seasons this decade. One playoff appearance to show for it.
The NFL is now a passing league and college is at most a step behind. If you look at who gets the money in the NFL, it is QB, LT and then CB. CB is probably more important than WR. A good QB can elevate the WRs, and without a good QB the WRs don’t matter. However, you need good CBs not matter what.
I’d like to see the receipts on that assertion.
Zay Rutherford was #208 nationally as a recruit. It’s not unreasonable to think a player that highly ranked could even be better than Bracy (#435) after a full year. Wallace was also top 300. More realistically one of them develops to about the level Bracy is playing at this year, since he’s definitely out performing his recruiting ranking.
The question is, could we get someone from the transfer portal that is actually better than that? I really haven’t followed it closely enough to know.
Bracy was playing a good bit last year and even got meaningful snaps. I don’t think anyone has gotten that level of run this year. But, even granting your premise, if we got Bracy+1 year and someone playing to this year’s Bracy level, that is a very mediocre CB starting unit, and the depth beyond that is not great.
I think we won’t know re: the transfer portal until after the season, but looks like there are already options: https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/TransferPortal/
Of course, no idea if any of them are up-to-snuff academically or would be better than Rutherford/Wallace.
Yeah, I’m not saying that is a great starting CB duo. I am just wondering if the portal would do any better. I do think now that Crawford is done, we will have to see another CB get a decent number of snaps, hopefully whoever it is looks good.
That is one handy website. i guess I shouldn’t be surprised 247 has it. I love that the top QB and WR are transferring out of USC and the top DB is transferring to us.
There are a few CBs in the low 4*/high 3* range in the portal, I would definitely kick the tires on them.
I’m kind of hoping that PJ makes the kind of jump in bowl prep and spring ball that we dont have to worry about offering Book a 5th year. Kind of encourage him to do the Wimbush thing and take his 5th season somewhere else and open up the path for a better player.
Book’s 157.5 passer rating is higher than Jake Fromm and Trevor Lawrence, among others so far this season. Book is not a perfect QB but to think a virtual unknown in Phil Jurkovec would be “better” in 2020 than a third year starter is pure head cannon fantasy. You can’t see what Jurkovec can do in spring and then kick Book to the curb, and the backup also isn’t going to get THAT many reps in preparation of a major NY6 bowl either.
Book doesn’t have the highest ceiling but is typical performance is pretty darn effective at racking up yards and points, and really still ought to have room for improvement. He’s started 16 games right now. If Book had full season of Armstrong and Kmet, he would be having an even better season, which really has been quite fine. He takes care of the ball and can operate the offense effectively, which are 2 things that Wimbush really couldn’t say.
I’m not here to crack on Book, that’s not the point of my original comment. I like him just fine, I just dont see him as a true game changing player. I think PJ will be that. He’s not there yet and I absolutely am not calling for Book to be benched, but I want to see PJ turn into the 4-star he is and take control of the position for next season. Kind of like what happened to Tom E., a better player evolved behind him and took the reigns.
PJ has looked pretty not-good every time he’s been on the field and throws an ugly ball. I wouldn’t plan on our QB play to be improved next year if Book leaves.
I think if the desire is to have the best year possible next year Book is the guy you want. I think if the desire is to have the best year(s) possible in 2021/2022 PJ would be the better play.
I think he’s grown a whole lot from Spring to now. His ball looks just fine now and his real limitation so far is that he’s playing with 2s and 3s when he’s in. If he could throw some to Claypool and Finke and McKinley, i think we’d see some dynamic plays.
Rewatch his throws in the BG game. Even the completed ones were pretty ugly looking.
It’s a fair point that he’d look better with the 1s out there, but his ball placement is bad and he doesn’t throw tight spirals. Neither of those have anything to do with who is catching the ball.
Wouldn’t PJ have been throwing to McKinley and Tremble a lot of the spring/summer? Those guys now seem pretty established as the 3rd and 4th best receivers. Not to say they are close to Claypool/Kmet, but they could both be gone next year anyway.
Basing PJ’s improvement on his 8 throws this season is pretty silly…. Scarponi’s comment is dead on.
It would be one think if Book was similar to Rees, but he’s much more effective. Book’s completion %, Y/A and AY/A is far better than Rees, Book can also use his legs far better, his turnovers are down and his record is fine. It’s almost impossible to imagine Jurkovec in 2020 leading a better offense than Book would, unless we’re doing just that and imagining.
Your 2nd paragraph, 100%. Book still doesn’t have that many starts under his belt, and growth at QB is not often linear and predictable. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Lawrence or Hurts, but he still has room for meaningful improvement and his experience is incredibly valuable. Given injury and failures in recruiting/development, he’s also been working with a short deck at the skill positions.
I look at somebody like Joe Burrow — always previously viewed as a game-manager and not a game-changer, even going back to OSU — and how things have suddenly clicked for him this season, and I think that there’s no reason that Book couldn’t aspire to that type of development as an ultimate target for himself.
I have a bye week article on this topic. Pretty fascinating how it plays out.
I do not think Book will get drafted after this season with his stats.
Gilman is probably a goner.
I am with you. I think Book is a perfectly fine college QB. Good enough to get you to the playoff, good enough to win a Heisman for OU. But I have seen nothing that points to the NFL, especially given his size.
The implication that Ian Book is anywhere near the level of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, or Jalen Hurts is not exactly fair to the latter three. Other than maybe (maybe!) being more accurate than Hurts at short-to-intermediate throws, he is not better at any aspect of quarterbacking as compared to those three, and is much (much) worse in certain regards.
He is, though, a perfectly fine college QB, and I would say is even likely to be a top-15 level QB next year (as in, probably somewhere from 12-15).
I’d go a little further on that description.
“He is, though a perfectly fine college QB, and I would say is even likely to be a top-15 level QB…”
If he has elite playmakers around him.
For me, my biggest frustration is that he doesn’t instill any fear in anyone because he doesn’t take over games. He requires TJ or Jafar gashing or Miles Boykin/Claypool dominating with size in the secondary. The three you mentioned, it doesnt necessarily matter who’s catching the balls from them or lined up as their RB, those three are owning the field. I dont see Ian with that ability at all
I perceive Book a little bit like AJ McCarron. If you had an Alabama team around him you could definitely win championships, but he’s never going to be the guy that overcomes a serious talent gap based on his play.
I dont even have to go that far. He’s a more mobile Tom E.
A much more mobile, accurate Rees that generates over a yard per attempt more and takes care of the ball a lot better. Other than physical stature, they’re not alike at all as players.
He’s much better than Rees. That’s a silly comparison.
He’s always been a Rich Man’s Tommy Rees. Although in his defense, he doesn’t commit as many horrifying turnovers.
Hurts SO yr (games 16-30 of his career) vs Book’s RS SO yr (games 11-20)
Att – Comp% – Y/A – TD/INT – Rating
255 – 60.4% – 8.2 – 17/1 – 150.2
314 – 68.2% – 8.4 – 19/7 – 154.0
Mayfield was hardly all world at TTU (128 rating), and Kyler Murray was actively bad at aTm (more INTs than TDs on 120 attempts).
So yes, Book could very much be near those levels in OU’s system. And besides, one doesn’t have to be anywhere near those levels to win a Heisman when Tu’a isn’t in CFB.
Comparing Mayfield as a true freshman at Texas Tech or Kyler Murray as a true freshman at Texas A&M to redshirt sophomore Ian Book playing at Notre Dame is not exactly apples to apples! And the Hurts true sophomore year stats vs. Ian Book RS sophomore stats kind of prove my argument as much as anything – in Hurts’s worst year, he had nearly identical passing stats to what we considered a solid Ian Book year, and he is a much much more elusive runner than Book is.
Ian Book could not put it together in a manner that he could be a first round pick some day. He doesn’t have the tools, as they say. By contrast, Mayfield and Murray can throw the ball 50 yards with a flick of the wrist.
Those aren’t exactly apples to apples, but it’s a pretty good point of comparison, especially enough to think it isn’t crazy that Book could step into OU and potentially win the Heisman.
Also, that wasn’t Hurts’ worst year. That was his best year, unless you consider being very efficient as a backup a better year. His worst year was as a freshman, where in 15 games he had a 139 rating. Even Hurts’ running is night and day. He averaged 5.0, 5.6, and 4.6 y/c at Bama. He is averaging 8.5 at OU.
In the 2 years Hurts was a full time starter, both passing seasons were less efficient than Book’s 2018 and 2019 so far. Here are their per game numbers in the seasons they were/are full time starters at Bama/ND.
Hurts: 2.1 TD/game, .34 INT/game, 230 yds/game, 33 touches/game in 29 games.
Book: 2.5 TD/game, .56 INT/game, 283 yds/game, 39 touches/game in 16 games.
TD, yardage, and touches totals include rushing and passing.
So yeah, there really isn’t anything suggesting Hurts was somehow a way better QB than Book before he got to OU.
Are you insane? Ian Book can’t throw downfield, and his vision has left a lot to be desired.
Ah yes. I forgot how people used to rave about Hurts’ ability to stretch the field. I must be insane for remembering the world in 2017.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/alabama-football/passing-chart-shows-one-area-field-jalen-hurts-struggles-attack/
The tweet in this article shows Hurts’ 20+ yd passing numbers. 9-31 for 361 yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs. He was pretty good deep down the middle of the field, but overall he was bottom 25 percentile in deep passing. That is the man who is now throwing for 12.8 y/a.
Did you read my original post? It started out with me agreeing Book isn’t even draftable right now.
I said that Book is a fine college QB. Nothing special, but good enough. And made a tongue in cheek statement that OU takes nothing special, but good enough, and turns that into Heisman winners. Which despite my comment being intended as a joke, is also very much true.
After the last 2.5 years of OU, it hardly seems like a hot take to say a top 15ish QB could step into their system and win the Heisman.
Sorry, calling you insane was a bit much. However, Book has been looking skittish and unable to progress through his reads. Not sure if they’re not calling deep passes, or he’s not taking the shots, but he’s averaging something like 6.5 yards per attempt against power 5 teams. I’m not sure if he’s hit is ceiling or if Clemson broke something in him, but he’s just ok against decent competition.
I’m not sure that NFL teams are champing at the bit to take Gilman before round 4 or 5, either. His play this season has been spotty, and he’s not a physical specimen who wows scouts enough to ignore spotty play.
He may decide to leave, regardless, of course.
I absolutely LOVE the 2020 makeup, offensively. The way Drew and Tyree and Mayer played together at the Opening this year was magical and if they can do that in college together, OMG. Mayer just dominates when he’s catching balls, Tyree makes defenders look silly with the moves he makes. I cant wait to see these guys on the field again
Point of order on Vaughn – he has only played in four games this year and the staff would like to try to keep it that way so he can return next year. But that probably hinges on Crawford’s continued health this year.
Great work as usual, E. This is a big effort.
Yea having Vaughn back next year would be a huge boost – even if just to having some depth.
According to II, they amended the stats to indicate that Vaughn has only played in 3 games, so he could get time against Michigan and then they could decide whether or not to shut him down and preserve the redshirt.