The recruiting cycle for 2020 is here and it still feels weird to type out that year. It’s amazing to witness this being Brian Kelly’s 11th recruiting class at Notre Dame, or really his 10th full recruiting class after being hired late in the 2010 cycle. In the Roster Management Era™ the Fighting Irish also completed their 7th straight class of at least 20 signings and would surely like to keep that streak alive in 2020. But can they?
Here’s an early look at the scholarship numbers as we barrel toward the crazy future of a new decade.
Out of Eligibility Following 2019
WR Chris Finke
WR Chase Claypool
OL Trevor Ruhland
DE Julian Okwara
DE Khalid Kareem
DE Jamir Jones
DE Daelin Hayes
LB Asmar Bilal
CB Donte Vaughn
CB Troy Pride
S Devin Studstill
S Jalen Elliott
The 2020 season is going to be a major change for Notre Dame on defense. The only possible defensive starter left over from this past season’s 2018 campaign would be safety Alohi Gilman and as we’ll discuss below it’s far from certain he’ll remain on the team beyond 2019. Either way, 2020 is going to be a massive transition year for Clark Lea so this upcoming fall will be super important for new starters and younger defensive players gaining experience.
The core of the offense should remain pretty stable. We’re not even sure Ruhland will step into and/or maintain a starting role as a graduate senior (with rumblings he could leave after spring if it’s not in the cards for him) and even if Claypool and Finke will be technically starters on their way out the youth movement at that position is going to begin swiftly in 2019.
2020-21 Academic Classes
5 Verbal Commits
22 Sophomores*
27 Juniors
18 Seniors
10 Graduates^
82 Total Scholarships
*Includes Bertrand and Liufau.
^Includes Shawn Crawford
SCHOLARSHIP NUMBERS ARE TIGHT
Although we always have to mention the caveat that it’s early the numbers continue to be extremely tight and 2020 looks like it’s trending towards a class smaller than 20 players.
On February 8th of last year for this very article the program was sitting at 77 projected scholarships for 2019-20 with 3 verbal commits and a max of 8 graduate seniors returning for 2019. This was helped out by 11 players leaving the program in early-to-mid January 2018 through transfers, dismissals, and early entry into the NFL which allowed us to project a class of 22 players, ultimately exactly where the Irish landed.
Right now, at roughly the same point on the calendar there are 5 additional scholarships on the books compared to last year, 2 more verbals, and a possibility of 2 more grad students eligible to return.
The year placement of Bertrand and Liufau doesn’t matter in the short-term–although the fact that a grayshirt for the latter was part of the plan surely signals 2020’s scholarships may not be all that copious. As it is, we’re projecting both to pick up a scholarship before the summer anyway. As things currently stand, without counting either Bertrand or Liufau, the Irish are at 87 scholarships and we’ll see if there are 4 more transfers before summer. Either way, how that ultimately shakes out has more of an affect on the 2023-24 scholarship numbers rather than 2020.
List of Eligible 2020 Grad Students
Tier I
QB Ian Book
S Alohi Gilman
OL Liam Eichenberg
OL Tommy Kraemer
DE Ade Ogundeji
RB Tony Jones
LS John Shannon
Tier II
CB Shawn Crawford
LB Jon Jones
Tier III
WR Javon McKinley
10 possible graduate seniors for 2020 seems like a lot at the moment but as often happens this list will get cut down eventually. For the record, 4 of the 8 eligible from this past season are on track to return to Notre Dame for their final year.
I think Kraemer, Eichenberg, Ogundeji, and Shannon are absolute locks to come back. Everyone else, I have questions that need to be asked.
There may have been a few grumbles about projecting Wimbush not to be back at this point last year but he didn’t in the end. Even at his smaller size, Book is either coming off a good enough 2019 to test the pro waters or he struggles enough where like many before him he’s seeking a final year elsewhere.
Here’s the thing about Gilman–not only did he have to sit out a year while transferring from Navy to Notre Dame–but like many recruited Midshipmen he attended the Naval Academy Prep School for the 2015-16 season. That means if he’s a normal age for his grade Gilman is currently nearly 22 years old and will be turning 23 sometime next year. If he has another really good season it’s doubtful he sticks around South Bend as a 24-year old.
Tony Jones I think you can lean strongly towards returning but at the same time he would’ve been a distant 3rd in carries last year if Jafar Armstrong stayed healthy and I’m not sure that situation necessarily gets better for someone averaging 4.91 per rush in his career. The decisions of running backs to leave for a variety of reasons also tend to be more aggressive than other positions, as well.
Don’t worry we’ll check back in a year. For now, here’s our way (way) too early guess at Notre Dame’s 2020 recruiting class. https://t.co/YNbTIOoovZ
— 18 Stripes (@18stripes) February 16, 2019
Crawford is potentially a starter for 2019, and maybe even one of the better starters on the defense. His injury history isn’t a red flag it’s a collection of red flags, though. And even if he’s approved for a 6th year of eligibility that’s a really long time to be living in South Bend.
The case of Jon Jones is a fascinating one. To some, he’s clearly the starting middle linebacker for spring if by default only. It feels like he’s been on campus since 2012 and yet only has about 70 career snaps with the staff seemingly continuing to find ways to get others on the field ahead of him. A rarely used backup situation followed up by a grad transfer shouldn’t be shocking.
Javon McKinley was one of the most highly touted receivers of the Kelly era and through 3 seasons has a grand total of 0 receptions and played 5 snaps last year in his third year with the program. Some are expecting him to transfer (if he’s graduating in May) after spring football either way he’s very unlikely to stick around beyond the 2019 season. His recent arrest definitely clouds his future for someone who wasn’t making an impact on the field.
***Scholarship Chart CLICK HERE***
2020 Recruiting Cycle Needs
High Need
Running Back
Corner
Medium Need
Wide Receiver
Defensive End
Defensive Tackle
Safety
Low Need
Quarterback
Tight End
Offensive Line
Linebacker
Let’s say ultimately 6 grad students come back for 2020 (Eichenberg, Kraemer, Ogundeji, Shannon, and both Jones’) we can project, at minimum, 7 more scholarships available in the future. That would bring the 2020 class to 12 players. In order, to get to 20 players you’ll need 8 players gone from the 2017-19 recruiting classes. That could prove quite difficult especially as there isn’t a great crop of rising juniors (2017) who look like they are capable of leaving early for the NFL.
Figuring out roster losses right now is a crap shoot, you might as well throw darts at the board. The program was helped in numbers for 2019 by the transfers of C.J. Holmes, Kevin Stepherson, Deon McIntosh, Jonathan MacCollister, plus the retirement of David Adams. That was a combined 16 years of eligibility that left campus. If we don’t see 3 or 4 really young players transfer by this summer it could lock up a smaller 2020 class.
Quarterback and tight end are obviously wrapped up in a neat bow for 2020. It will be hard to improve upon the talent already committed at those positions.
Linebacker (with 11 projected players for 2020) and the offensive line (with 14 projected players for 2020) are really experiencing a numbers crunch. The line especially with 8 players all on freshmen eligibility would have a difficult time justifying signing more than 3 players for 2020 and could easily manage just 2 players.
All three of safety, defensive end, and wide receiver are going to be experiencing significant personnel losses after 2019 and remain firmly in the medium need bucket. Defensive tackle isn’t in that same boat purely with numbers although there are injury concerns with Franklin and Spears that warrant a thorough look at additional bodies beyond the recent addition of Aidan Keanaaina.
In terms of numbers running back is arguably more bloated than any other position on the roster. As such, it’s probably a position ripe for some personnel losses in the future but is still on the prowl for high-end recruited talent which is a tremendous need.
Without a doubt, cornerback should be 2020’s biggest need. Irish Sports Daily recently reported that rising redshirt freshman D.J. Brown might be a better fit at nickel or free safety which would leave the following corners on the roster beyond 2019: Tariq Bracy, Noah Boykin, K.J. Wallace, and Isaiah Rutherford. It’ll be an important cycle for Todd Lyght and company.
My prediction is this class will be 19 players in total. Tyler’s 2020 class prediction from last week featured 21 players and if it’s a couple fewer that could mean 3 instead of 4 offensive linemen and maybe only one linebacker or 2 receivers.
Great stuff as always!
I think as long as we’re playing with numbers it’s important to factor *required* player losses as well. As you note, not even counting Bertrand and Liufau we’re at 87 scholarships. That means at a minimum, between now and the fall we’re going to lose 2 players off the roster (one way or another), and it wouldn’t be shocking if it’s 4. That factors into what the overall count will be come 2020.
Though as I type this, I’m also realizing that if those departures happen to be from players out of eligibility in 2020 (e.g. Ruhland/Studstill), then it actually creates no further space then already factored. So…. we know there will be players leaving, but I guess we can’t know if that will create more space or not.
Yup, that’s the kicker.
Ruhland/Studstill/McKinley + one 2018 recruit could leave this May but that would only free up one additional scholarship for 2020 while getting the 2019 team back to 85 scholarships.
That’s why I mentioned players have to leave from the 2017-19 classes, and probably a few after spring practice.* It’s a guaranteed way to get down to 85 and free up space for 2020 all the while we’re chasing grad transfer Eric Kumah from Virginia Tech.
*It’s either a few after spring and probably a couple more after the 2019 season. That seems more realistic to me than a mass exodus after 2019. Although I do think the push to graduate in 3 years and transfer thing is going to become more popular. There are 4-6 players from the 2017 class where that could be the case which would go a long way to allowing 2020 to have 20+ players.
I don’t know if the numbers are available, but the number of athletes graduating after their 3rd FB season is an important number to project. Those are the most likely to transfer away — especially if they have 2 years of eligibility left.
Another interesting question is, does the university promise a 4th year of a scholarship if you’ve already earned a degree? Or do they promise to give you and opportunity to get a degree — even if you work through it in 3 or 3.5 years?
It’s a good question. I’ve been led to understand it’s an opportunity for a degree but I find it hard to believe 3 to 3.5 years is ever discussed on the recruiting trail. The exception may be for extremely academic-minded recruits.
There’s likely always going to be some who can’t swing finishing in 3 years. Yet, if someone struggles as a freshman and isn’t likely to see the field…does the coaching staff nudge them towards picking up extra classes (summer sessions has to be an important route for more credits) in order to finish early? With the ability to still play 2 years somewhere else I have to think it’s discussed for the players who are mature enough to deal with it.
Aren’t summer classes already the norm for football players (and probably some other varsity athletes as well)? That’s possibly the only way to graduate in 4 years let alone 3 or 3.5 since courseloads during fall semester are usually a little light.
Sorry, I meant adding more credits during the summer than usual for athletes.
That makes more sense…especially the part about only some players being mature enough to handle the workload.
As a practical matter, there are definitely some guys who the coaches are going to hope leave (and may encourage them to do so):
– Whoever is lowest on the RB depth chart at the end of the spring between Davis, Smith, and Flemister (and maybe the two lowest);
– McKinley (who I have read is on track for a summer graduation anyways);
– Studstill (who appears to have one foot out the door, right?); and
– some underclassmen LBs (probably two at the bottom of the depth chart).
Ewell is borderline for that list, where unless he makes significant improvements it seems that he isn’t going to be one of the 85 best football players on campus, but also they need bodies at DT.
Having some or all of that happen would open some space – and avoid the Liufau greyshirt and Bertrand non-scholarship awkwardness. Another piece of good(?) news on that front is that somebody on 247 crunched the numbers a couple months ago and said we could reasonably expect a significant handful of the 27-man class to not be on the roster by the start of the season. Having that number be more like 22 by September would be helpful for roster-management purposes.
One of the more interesting things I’ve tracked in recent years is that the rising senior class is never 20 or more players. Which makes sense because most cycles you’re not signing many more than that. But I do wonder if that is kind of cooked into their projections each year. Meaning, over the next 27 months (and maybe even 22 months) we will see at least 8 players from the 27-man 2018 class leave.
That’s a huge class that historically will get broken up sooner rather than later.
My memory could be failing, but I think the guy said to expect a minimum of 3 to leave and likely more like 5 would, so that’d be on the way to 8 over the course of two years.
I’d be surprised by 5 all at once in May/June especially from one class. But stranger things have happened.
Well, there’s always the patented August suspensions… :/
I’m skeptical that if Book has another really good year that he’ll be a serious NFL prospect. He just doesn’t seem to have the physical tools to be an NFL player. The way I see it he’ll definitely be back as a 5th year player if he has a solid year.
It’ll be interesting to see. I mean he doesn’t have great size or arm, but he’s smart and accurate. The NFL is always very thirsty for QB’s. If Nathan Peterman can keep finding jobs, you don’t think someone’s going to invest a 4th-7th round draft pick in a Notre Dame QB with 25ish starts and really good numbers?
Further, what does a 5th year gain Book? He’s still gonna be 6′..
I think the worst case scenario is he’s like a 8-4/9-3 guy, not great enough to be explosive vertically but not poor enough to be benched.
There will definitely be people leaving and I hope we get Bertrand and Liufau in with scholarships this fall. The interesting thing will be who leaves and when.
For the first time we will probably be pushing (by degree) people out the door. It will be interesting to see if people bash Kelly for the same roster management techniques practiced in the SEC and the other big powers. Perhaps they will blame him for failing to project 17year olds (and increasingly 16 year olds) development. I am sure they will choose one or the other.
They will demand he win like Alabama without any of the off-field factors that go into Alabama being Alabama.
85 scholarships is a very tough number. It is designed to disburse talent. The schools that are succeeding are the ones that manage their ‘mistakes’ the best. Ewell and McKinley are prime examples. Both were 4* recruits, I am sure we can find many articles where they were projected to play as freshman, and yet they barely need to wash their uniform after game day.
The staff has really pushed the envelope these last 2 years with the number of signees they’ve brought in. I think you’ll be surprised, E.
5 grayshirts here we come!!
I love it. I love that the staff is being so aggressive with numbers. I can’t see any other way to push this to a championship.
May I be as bold as to suggest recruiting better in aggregate?
🙂
Fair enough. But How do they bring in better recruits when the roster has a bunch of average recruits taking up space? They have to push the envelope and bring in as many bodies as possible every year.
This is kind of a circular argument to me. ND needs better athletes in order to compete with the best. The recruiting has been good, but not great, over the past couple of years. I don’t think anyone wants to wait two to four years for the next opportunity. So push the numbers and hope you pull in a few more Fuller types that blossom late and can change the dynamics of the team.
I get what you’re saying.
I do think ND should’ve recruited better in the past and can do so in the future. But if one doesn’t think the future is changing all that much then yeah more bodies can equal better odds. However, that’s probably not going to make that much of a difference in the grand scheme, either.
Oh I definitely see better recruiting in the future. Back to back ten win seasons. A spot in the playoffs. A staff that, from what I can tell, are busting their asses on the recruiting trail. I see pushing the numbers so hard as just another example of the greater effort being put into recruiting.
I really like what the OL projects to be in 2020:
Eichenberg-Banks-Center-Kraemer-Hainsey
And other than the center those others should have, what like going on 30 games together by the end of 2020? Fingers crossd that’s a ton of continuity across the board.
Makes me wonder though about the differences from ND to Bama/Clemson. Those other guys get their best players (skill positions) to the NFL in 3 years and then reload a lot of the time. The ND best players are the o-line where it takes 3-4 years to really grow together and enjoy the benefits. Just a subtle difference but it’s not like ND can recruit 25+ every year and just cycle through players as fast. Not saying it’s good or bad, just seems like a real difference.