For the past few weeks at 18Stripes, we’ve been chronicling Charlie Weis’s fateful last year in South Bend (Click here for the awesome UW game). The next installment will be the 2009 USC-ND game when the Irish tried to knock off the title-contending Trojans in order to help save Weis’ job. At the time, USC was such a dominant power in college football that Notre Dame’s 34-27 loss at home felt more like a moral victory than anything else. The distance between the two programs at that time made it seem like a shift of epic proportions would be needed to put ND on the same footing as the Trojans.
Ten years later these roles are reversed with USC trying to save Clay Helton’s job with a win in South Bend. Since 2009, the Trojans have stumbled through a decade of underachievement while Notre Dame has again established itself as a perennial contender. USC has managed to tread water against an insane early schedule, but a coaching change still feels inevitable. Tomorrow, the Irish will attempt to beat USC three years in a row for the first time since 1999-2001 and drive another nail into Helton’s coffin.
USC at #9 Notre Dame (-11)
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 12, 2019
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV:Â NBC
USC’s Offense
Following a massive offensive drop-off in 2018 with the absence of Sam Darnold, Helton went out and tried to hire Kliff Kingsbury to bring the Air Raid to LA. Kingsbury then somehow failed into the Arizona Cardinals head coaching job, but Helton stuck to his original goal and landed another former Texas Tech QB in Graham Harrell to run the offense. J.T. Daniels had briefly cosplayed as Tom Brady against the Irish defense last year and the hope was that a shift to a more pass-happy offense would unlock his immense gifts and save Helton’s job.
Things have been… pretty alright so far despite none of what I just said coming to fruition. USC ranks a healthy 19th in SP+ Offense despite losing Daniels for the season and backup Kedon Slovis for two games. Third-stringer Matt Fink improbably lit up Utah’s defense before falling flat on his face in USC’s loss against Washington a week later. Now with Slovis healthy, the true freshman will make his third-ever start under the lights at Notre Dame Stadium. No pressure, kid.
The USC offense begins and ends with its wide receivers who will be an immense challenge. Michael Pittman, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns are all lengthy, fast, and very good at making difficult catches. Plug any one of these guys into ND’s roster and they would instantly compete with Chase Claypool for the #1 receiver slot. This might be the best position group that Notre Dame faces this year outside of Georgia’s running backs and they are finally playing in an offense that takes advantage of their talents.
The Kedon Slovis experience against Stanford provided an ominous experience for Irish fans, as he torched the Cardinal secondary and seemed to take USC’s offense to a new level by fully utilizing its freakish skill players. Watching Slovis against BYU the following week produced an opposite reaction, as the freshman struggled against the Cougar’s rush-3, drop-8 scheme and tossed three picks.
So who is this guy? Well, we know he’s an aggressive downfield passer who averages 9.5 yards per attempt. He’s also accurate as hell on short passes, completing 77.5% of his passes thus far. However, he’s also an impatient passer as we saw against BYU, always trying to fit the ball into tiny windows and throwing some risky balls. We are going to find out a lot about Slovis tomorrow night and whether we should be worried that he’s only a freshman going forward.
It’s difficult to assess the USC run game considering it’s mostly a sideshow. Including sacks, the Trojans throw the ball about 55% of the time despite a pretty good stable of running backs (NDNation is currently shrieking). You’ll hear a lot about former ND commit Markese Stepp, but Vavae Malepeai will likely get the most carries. Stephen Carr has a shiny 6.1 yards per carry, but he hasn’t been consistently healthy enough to merit being the bell cow for this offense. This group could either pose a huge problem or end up like Virginia’s running backs.
USC’s Defense
DC Clancy Pendergast managed to survive the offseason purge, but the Trojans have slipped on that side of the ball over the course of Helton’s stewardship. Since peaking at #9 in SP+ defense in 2016, USC ranked 24th in 2017, then fell to 46th last year. As of now, the Trojan defense sits at 51st in Defensive SP+ and are particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up almost five yards a carry. However, the secondary will get a huge boost on Saturday with the return of Talanoa Hufanga from concussion protocol. The former blue-chipper from Oregon is arguably the Trojan’s best all-around player and was 2nd the Pac-12 in tackles with 10.5 per game before his injury.
The rest of the USC defense is predictably talented, but also young and in some cases, not very good. As mentioned before, the Trojans are not great against the run and this should be a game where ND easily clears the 150-yard mark at a good yards per carry. The USC front seven is led by 5-star guys like Jay Tufele, Drake Jackson and others, but they are still unproven and were gashed by Washington two weeks ago on the ground.
This defense is also not very disruptive, especially in the secondary where opposing quarterbacks have only thrown two interceptions in five games. There is obviously a lot of talent in the back end, but Ian Book (with all of his warts) will represent the best QB USC’s defense will have played thus far. There is money to be made here if the Trojans can’t keep the Irish run game from averaging less than five yards a carry.
Prediction
I’m going to say something controversial: USC is not nearly as hopeless and bad as we think they are under Clay Helton. The Trojans were below average last year, but their advanced stats profile mirrored a 7-5 team more than the one that finished 5-7. Still not great, but the 2019 Trojans are far better on offense and Slovis is a unknown but dangerous quantity. They are a fluky loss to a bad BYU team away from being ranked in this contest and they have plenty of firepower to unleash if the Irish are sleepwalking.
There are concerning aspects to this game if you’re a Notre Dame fan. The absence of Shaun Crawford means Clark Lea’s defense will have sub-optimal options for dealing with SC’s Hydra of wide receivers. The USC defense will get an instant upgrade with the return of Hufanga and the Trojans won’t have to worry about Dexter Williams breaking the game open this time. My point: USC can absolutely win this game.
Yet, this feels like a game ND should win if it just sticks to the formula its carved out since almost beating Georgia. The Irish seem to have settled into a nice groove on defense since the initial shakiness against Louisville and New Mexico. It also looks like we will finally get the much-ballyhooed return of Jafar Armstrong in this game. We’ve heard about as much as the two-back set as we did about Cole Kmet being a difference maker on offense and we all saw how that has panned out. If Armstrong is as good as advertised, then this could be the spark that turns a top-20 offense into a top-10 unit.
The Irish pass rush will once again be the most lopsided mismatch in favor of Notre Dame in this game. USC’s offensive line has only allowed six sacks, but much of that has to do with the intentional design of the Air Raid’s quick passing game. Slovis is still a really young quarterback who has already made some big mistakes against lesser defenses and he seems ripe for a few bad throws every game. This is where the Irish defense can turn a close game into a comfortable victory.
If Fink were the Trojans QB for this game, I would pick the Irish to cover the spread with no questions asked. However, this really does feel like a last-stand for Helton and we should expect a closer game like last year. This will be ND’s biggest test this season on defense and they will have to tackle like they did at UGA in order to preserve Clark Lea’s perfect record of not allowing more than 30 points. Tyler Vaughns or St. Brown simply cannot be allowed to catch a slant and take it to the house like Adoree Jackson or JuJu Smith-Schuster did in 2015.
Ultimately, I foresee this game playing out much like the UVA contest, with USC’s offense making a lot of hay in the first half before defensive adjustments slow down Slovis and Co. I think the Irish offense will do just fine, but I don’t expect them to score at will unless Jafar Armstrong’s return truly transforms the offense. In the end, the Irish are a much better team across the board but USC’s desperation and talent will make things uncomfortable until the bitter end.
Bring on the Urban Meyer Jack Del Rio era!
Very concerned about JOK playing a lot on passing downs. Missing Crawford definitely has me concerned. The DEs must live up to their preseason hype in this one, or Book and Co. are going to need to put up some points.
34-27 Irish in a game that is close from start to finish, and we never feel completely comfortable until the final whistle.
I think the Irish D scores another TD on a Kyle Hamilton pick 6 after another DL tipped pass. ND pulls away in the 3rd qtr. 31-21
Two score game at half ending in a three score win. The Trojans get a few explosive plays from their WRs, but can’t do much else right. 38-20 Irish.
I think this game will pretty much mirror the Virginia game. USC will move the ball in the first half and it will be supremely frustrating. But they won’t actually score a touchdown until the second half as Slovis can’t put together 10- or 12-play drives. 17-12 ND at half before Clark Lea’s signature halftime adjustments lead to a shut out in the third quarter. The offense will look fine. We’ll have some gripes about Book, but he’ll do pretty well and protect the ball. Armstrong will be rusty and not quite ready to put in a full day’s work. ND wins comfortably 38-19.
Seems to me that Slovis is the most important person in the game. If he handles pressure well (both in terms of the crowd and the front four), ND won’t win by more than a touchdown. If he doesn’t, this could be a 2017-esque blowout.