This off-season will provide a lot of opinions and content regarding quarterback Tyler Buchner and his future as the No. 1 quarterback for the Irish in 2022. Since the mobile Californian has already established he’s a big threat as a runner (7.30 yards per carry on 336 yards as a true freshman) a lot of attention surrounds Buchner’s passing ability, or lack thereof.

I wanted to address some of these issues as we await the Fiesta Bowl because the impression and judgement of Buchner’s passing ability has been one of the most peculiar things I’ve witness in recent memory.

He’s Not Playoff Caliber

Let’s start here. On the one hand, I get it. Notre Dame football and especially its fans believe the Irish to be close to the top teams in the country and at the ever-important position of quarterback also wish to see an experienced difference-maker taking snaps. Buchner isn’t that right now, so there’s some frustration and doubt.

As I’ll address below that’s not entirely fair to Buchner, certainly colors a lot of his critics and their perception of the quarterback today, while questioning what he could develop into down the road.

I find setting the bar this high for a young quarterback completely impractical and actually very strange. Buchner has a lot of enticing tools and has flashed more than enough potential to make it worth investing a lot in his future.

There was nothing about Buchner’s play that makes me believe his talent level specifically would lead to fewer than 10 wins next year. And if someone disagrees with that I would ask what are the realistic alternatives out there where we’re going to boil the 2022 schedule down to only Ohio State and Clemson with the rush to win those games absent Buchner being top priority?

Transfer Portal

If we include Ron Powlus III there will be 4 quarterbacks on scholarship in 2022. In terms of numbers you certainly don’t need a 5th body. Now, if you aren’t inclined to include Powlus as a realistic option than maybe you’d want to seek out another option.

If Notre Dame thinks its a playoff contender next year I understand the urge to bring in a proven commodity at quarterback. Yet, trying to figure out who would instantly jump Buchner–and frankly Pyne too–won’t be very easy.

2022 may be an ideal year for a serviceable grad transfer willing to sit on the bench and pick up a degree. Hope for Buchner’s future was immense when he was being recruited and given his role in 2021 I think he exceeded expectations after missing his senior season. To have a wandering eye for another talent against such a highly-rated young quarterback on campus doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Lack of Trust

In the larger picture, Buchner still hasn’t played a ton. In 10 games he’s run the ball 46 times and thrown the ball 35 times. Factor in some hand-offs to running backs and I’d guess he’s been under center for something like 100 to 125 snaps. That’s effectively 2 games worth of data. Looking at it through this lens of 2 games he’s just about averaged 150 yards passing and rushing with 3 touchdowns per contest. For a 13-game season this is 4,121 total yards and 39 touchdowns.

Obviously, projecting like this isn’t super realistic (Buchner probably won’t challenge the most rushing yards by any player for a season!) but it does show Buchner was productive in limited snaps. For whatever reason, critics have watched Buchner run more than he passes and made the logical leap towards the coaching staff not trusting him enough to pass more often.

However, Buchner was a collegiate true freshman who tweaked his throwing motion in 2020 and was coming off missing his senior season with an injury as a high school sophomore, as well. If he came out passing more it would’ve been either a case of prodigal talent or willful neglect of his strengths by the coaching staff.

Plus, Buchner is a great runner…why wouldn’t you have him run a lot?

This is all to say, what Buchner has achieved so far in 2021 seems extremely normal and healthy. That’s why I don’t understand some of the consternation about his play (and comparisons to Andrew Hendrix, I can’t believe it) and doubts about the future.

There’s Plenty of Passing Promise!

I went back and looked at all of Buchner’s 35 passes in the regular season. I generally liked what I remembered from Buchner’s arm and after another evaluation came away a little more impressed.

Here’s the spray chart of all his throws:

o = completion, x = incomplete, D = drop, I = interception.

Yes, Buchner wasn’t asked to do a lot outside of the short passing game.

I’m happy with his fundamentals and throwing motion. Remember, this was a big concern all of this past off-season and Buchner didn’t show glaring mechanical issues as a freshman. His delivery is a little unusual, but I really like the quick and compact release with a strong arm.

The big thing for me is accuracy. For most freshmen quarterbacks I would’ve expected some struggles with accuracy and a handful or more of throws that missed wildly. That we haven’t seen this from Buchner is reassuring.

I counted 4 drops** on the season, 2 pretty bad ones and 2 more iffy calls. Take this 3rd down throw for example:

Buchner doesn’t stride through the throw entirely and relies on his arm strength to push the ball out quickly. It is thrown behind Avery Davis even if he gets his hands on the ball. For a true freshman that’s not a terrible throw although you’d like something better. I also noticed at times Buchner struggled with touch, especially on medium-length throws where most of his errors came from during the season. A common trait for young quarterbacks, he tends to muscle the ball to the receiver on occasion.

Buchner has thrown 3 interceptions so far. One he was hit while throwing against Cincinnati, one was a miscommunication with fellow freshman Deion Colzie against Virginia Tech, and the last was a slightly high (but catchable IMO) ball to Logan Diggs also against the Hokies. Buchner also nearly threw another interception against Virginia Tech, too:

Here his timing and accuracy are just a little off on a throw he didn’t need to hurry nor throw with so much velocity. With more experience, you’d hope Buchner gets a lot better in this area.

The thing about this Virginia Tech game is while there were some struggles from Buchner it was also the game where he flashed some great moments and didn’t let bad moments affect his confidence. His good work included this beautiful deep ball to Kevin Austin:

While Buchner certainly relied on a lot of easy RPO dump-offs his small sample size with longer passes was pretty impressive, and the numbers don’t even include a couple of really well thrown longer throws that were flagged for pass interference.

The touch on longer throws certainly seems there, and it’s something that is difficult to teach. Later in the game against the Hokies, Buchner went back to Austin in 1-on-1 coverage:

That’s a well-placed ball where you’d like to see Austin fight through the corner for the chance at a touchdown. Some may see an incompletion or a blanketed receiver. My point is fundamentally, Buchner has shown he has the skills at a young age to complete these passes.

There are 4 more throws I want to highlight. First, this flag route to Davis coming out of the slot yet again versus Virginia Tech:

That’s an impressive and confident throw over the middle delivered on time and with accuracy behind linebackers who are back-pedaling in coverage.

Being mobile, Buchner has done a pretty good job being able to throw on the run and outside of the pocket.

Here he escapes a defender following a poor block by Diggs to pick up a first down throw to Austin. Coincidentally, Buchner’s interception to Diggs in this game looked very similar to this play.

This was the throw of the season for Buchner:

It’s early in a score-less game against your main rival and Buchner delivers an absolute dime in traffic down the seam to Michael Mayer. Once again, tucking it in behind the linebackers and this time with enough velocity to complete it in front of the defensive back.

Lastly, Buchner was cool and calm on this slant to Austin:

This is nothing special but it’s nice to see a true freshman complete a slant on 3rd down in a close game in the red zone. It was open and he delivered a nice accurate ball that nearly goes for the touchdown.

***

I’ll be honest, even if Buchner didn’t have good wheels and all we saw of him this year were his throws I’d still have plenty of excitement. That he can be a deadly runner just makes it better.

I think we know Buchner will largely live off short passes of the RPO variety, especially early in his career. His running ability will open up a lot more for the running backs and in turn will eventually create bigger throwing windows in the passing game.

To me, it’s just been odd seeing the reaction to Buchner in 2021. Most freshmen quarterbacks I’ve seen at Notre Dame do not look very good but the fact remains fans typically show little patience and are quick to write off young quarterbacks. The same thing happened for Ian Book when it became apparent Brandon Wimbush could barely throw a football anymore. There just wasn’t enough to like (supposedly) in Book’s small sample size and fans didn’t want to see him take over, mainly because he ceiling didn’t seem awfully high.

In contrast, Buchner seems like he’s ticking off the boxes of meeting expectations early as a top 100 player and the future at Notre Dame. His ceiling does seem high! If he’s a receiver or linebacker I’d say all Irish fans would be ecstatic right now but due to the nature of the position we evaluate quarterbacks in a much different light. Lorenzo Styles has 16 catches and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet but almost every Irish fan is elated for his future. Buchner has done more as a freshman at a tougher position and still there’s mixed reaction to his future.

The tools are absolutely there as a passer for Buchner. Do I think he’ll become a great quarterback? I think it’s highly likely he’ll develop into a very good player in college. It’s like a bigger Ian Book with better athleticism and a much better arm. And while the opener at Ohio State next season could be rough, once Buchner gets several starts under his belt I would expect some big things.

**From Buchner’s 14 incompletions we have 4 drops, 3 interceptions (1 in which he was hit while throwing), and one pass batted down at the line. That leaves just 7 other incompletions, one of which he was also hit while throwing. Looking strictly at incompletions doesn’t give you the full picture without including things like decision-making or taking sacks but there’s such a small amount of missed throws that to me are heavily outweighed by impressive throws from the young quarterback.