The story of Brian Kelly at Notre Dame is one of steady improvement. His success wasn’t instant, with close-game struggles and a 4-5 start in Year 1 and the most frustrating possible 0-2 start in Year 2. There were dramatic swings here and there – the breakthrough in 2012 few saw coming, and the collapse in 2016 that was equally surprising.

But over more than a decade, it’s been defined by slow and, relative to the chaos of college football, steady progress. After underachieving relative to the Irish’s talent in the Weis years, Kelly brought stability and competence, then leveraged his early success into job security and additional investment in the program. Even in his last years in South Bend, he still had his eye on the next incremental improvements – how could the Irish climb a few more notches in recruiting? How do you upgrade when Clark Lea leaves for his alma mater? Could he twist Jack Swarbrick’s arm for more facility upgrades, or add additional scouting and recruiting staff?

Would Kelly’s stepwise approach and slow upward trajectory eventually take Notre Dame to the promised land? Probably not, but his reputation is slightly tarnished by his choice to leave for a purportedly easier route to a championship rather than answer that question. His departure for LSU with the Irish alive in the playoff hunt is a tacit admission that Kelly didn’t believe he could make that final leap in his last chapter.

Oustanding development, strong hiring decisions, but limitations as a recruiter held Kelly back from the final step

It’s hard to write Kelly’s obituary with a better summary than his own words – “the best Notre Dame coach that’s never won a championship”. The timing of his departure is strange since appreciation for his work at Notre Dame may be at an all-time high on the heels of five straight 10+ win seasons. The 2021 season stands as one of Kelly’s best, hiring Freeman to form a duo of up-and-coming coordinators and enhance recruiting, navigating roster upheaval and quarterback decisions to still finish 11-1. It’s easy to take for granted his sheer organizational competence and experience, which largely goes unnoticed but has translated into an elite recent record at home and against unranked opponents. It’s also striking as you look at the programs like USC, Texas, and Florida that have cycled through coaches who struggle to win consistently with massive resource and talent advantages.

The same holds for Kelly’s player development and scouting track record, which has been incredibly strong and consistent over his tenure. Producing early-round NFL draft picks seems like a given at Notre Dame, yet it was an area where Kelly’s predecessors struggled. BK’s eye for coaching talent was mostly excellent, with the notable exception of the Van Gorder hire that nearly torpedoed his career. Still, there were inspired acquisitions and promotions like Bob Diaco, Matt LaFleur, Mike Elko, Clark Lea, and finally Marcus Freeman and Tommy Rees. Even some imperfect hires like Mike Sanford appeared to be solid assessments at the time, and there were far more hits than misses.

It’s interesting that ultimately Kelly evolved into much more of a CEO-style coach after arriving with a reputation for engineering dynamic offenses at Cincinnati and Central Michigan. Looking back on Kelly’s tenure, his teams lack a distinct identity, or at least one that feels more closely tied to BK than Notre Dame. His best teams featured elite offensive lines and strong defenses, with a dual-threat quarterback and enough skill position talent to build good but rarely elite offense. He could (and did) win multiple ways – not with pure dominance on either side of the ball, but building rosters with few weaknesses and high floors in each phase of the game.

What held Kelly back from a breakthrough? Bumping into his recruiting ceiling and failing to find and develop an elite quarterback. Despite all of the 10+ win seasons, Notre Dame usually still finished ranked in the 5-15 range in F+ versus fielding truly dominant teams. That’s likely a result of recruiting limitations, where it seems fair to call Kelly a “B”-level recruiter as head coach. It’s not a coincidence the stars never quite aligned with skill talent, lines, and defense all great at once – they simply didn’t recruit at a high enough level to ensure that continuity and star power across the board. The Irish consistently landed top 10-12 ranked classes and evaluated well enough to achieve slightly better than that in a few years. But the lack of top-end recruiting left little margin for error or hope for a title run, especially in the playoff era where Notre Dame would likely need to beat two more talented teams back-to-back.

This relative weakness is why claims that Kelly was bumping into Notre Dame’s ceiling of performance in the modern era don’t hold up. You can’t claim it’s nearly impossible to perform better in this job in one breath yet expect Marcus Freeman to provide a significant boost in recruiting in the next. While it’s true that finding that combination of recruiting ability and leadership paired with the eye for coaching talent and player development is exceedingly rare, it’s not impossible.

Stability and competence right away

The Brian Kelly hire is a memorable one for me. I was a student for the joyous 2006-2009 seasons of the Weis era, covering his final fall for The Observer. I was in Palo Alto when Weis no-showed the press conference after losing to Stanford. I remember trying to write a finals essay and getting the email that it had finally happened, then pulling close to an all-nighter putting a special edition of the paper together with instant reaction and candidates with Kelly in our top tier with Bob Stoops. As the process dragged on I wrote an editorial that at some point this better end with BK, otherwise the process had been botched. I was assigned to cover his introductory press conference but went out to bars the night before and slept through it (it was fine, those transcripts were all online anyway).

Kelly inherited decent talent that had struggled to achieve and fell apart over the last months of 2009. The end of the Weis era (2007-2009) saw Notre Dame finish 78th, 46th, and 34th in F+. The 6-6 finish with an easy schedule and offense loaded with NFL talent in 2009 was the last straw, and many key pieces departed in the coaching transition. Still, Notre Dame improved to a top-20 level in Kelly’s first year and by Year 2 Kelly was fielding top-20 caliber units on both sides of the ball. The Irish played far too many close games and underperformed in the win column as a result, but very quickly BK established a far higher floor than his predecessors. In 2012, the close-game luck swung the other way and the Irish came tantalizingly close to a title (Baylor, why did you have to beat K-State?) for the first time in ages.

Looking back, a significant dip before the 2016 reboot

The 2013-2016 seasons are most remembered from the bottom falling out in 2016, but this was a phase was a stretch that included 3 of Kelly’s 4 worst seasons by F+ rating (2013, 2014, 2016) with the brilliant 2015 effort in between. A lot went wrong off the field in this stretch, with a string of events from Te’o’s catfishing scandal to Golson’s academic suspension and the Frozen Five.

In 2013 Golson’s absence cast a pall over the year before it started, and the Irish underachieved even considering his absence (26th in F+). The 2014 season started brilliantly despite the “Frozen Five” scandal, then fell apart at the seams with a shady call in FSU followed by the defense wrecked by injuries, late coaching blunders, and Golson’s unraveling in an embarrassing November. The following fall would be one of Kelly’s most talented teams and better coaching jobs as the injury bug hit hard again, with the Irish falling just short of a playoff berth with two close losses to top teams.

2016 hardly needs to be revisited, but in hindsight, it was probably a blessing to both Kelly and Notre Dame that they blew as many close games as possible to land at 4-8. The team quality was similar to previous 8-win teams, and without the misery, I’m not convinced Kelly takes a step back and overhauls his staff and program in the ways we now know were necessary.

BK 2.0 – A revival brings consistent winning and ND to the top of the 2nd tier

It’s been an incredible run of double-digit win seasons and playoff contention. As Texas, USC, Michigan, and a host of other programs have shown, winning consistently even as a top-tier program is incredibly difficult. The winning streaks at home and over unranked opponents flash Kelly’s best organizational traits coming through. Whether looking at winning percentage or advanced stats, Notre Dame has clearly been the 5th or 6th best program in this stretch.

It also required some strokes of luck. USC wandering in the wilderness for most of this decade was a gift. The 2018 and 2020 schedules each opened up beautifully to enable undefeated regular seasons. The 2021 season was similar, with half of a looming murderer’s row of opponents in turmoil; USC fired Clay Helton, UNC failed to surround Sam Howell with defense and enough weapons, Graham Mertz spun in a mid-career crisis, and the Fuente era at Virginia Tech was hanging on by a thread. The Irish went an astounding 14-2 in one-score games over the past five seasons – a sign of strong coaching but also bounces going the right way.

The only flaw in this run was the lack of consistent performance against similar or more talented teams. Even prior to the “2.0” years, Kelly teams competed well but fell short of massive wins against Florida State (2014), Clemson (2015), and the best Stanford teams from early in the decade. That trend continued with two near-misses against Georgia in 2017 and 2019. Even more troubling than those losses were the inexplicable blowout defeats at Miami and Michigan. The playoff losses to Clemson and Alabama were overblown considering the strength of those eventual title-winners, but seeing the Irish take more chances and compete better in those matchups would have helped given Kelly’s history of big-game shortcomings.

Setting the table for the next chapter

Over Kelly’s 12 years and the course of multiple contract extensions, he’s constantly made upgrades to Notre Dame’s program resources. It’s incredible to think about the state of the program in 2010 – no training table, massive overhauls needed in strength and conditioning, practice, and team facilities that were already outdated in the college football arms race. Salaries for assistants have increased to competitive levels where Marcus Freeman can choose the Irish offer over LSU (oh, the irony now). The recruiting and analyst staff will never be Alabama, but Kelly has added off-field scouting and recruiting headcount too.

The Campus Crossroads renovations brought field turf, a new locker room, and an improved stadium experience. Kelly doesn’t deserve credit for 100% of those decisions, but the new indoor practice facility is practically a prerequisite for a playoff-caliber program, and he consistently pushed for upgrades and resources to keep momentum. Kelly inherited a program from Weis that was a consistent underperformer with significant talent holes, and the next coach will walk into a thriving program loaded with talent, depth, and resources.

In a strange way, the performance of Marcus Freeman will cement the final chapter of BK’s legacy. If Freeman is able to make the playoff more consistently, or God-willing, win one, it will feel in some ways like the culmination of a journey Kelly started, especially since BK brought Freeman to South Bend. There will correctly be credit for being able to take the leap that Kelly couldn’t, but some necessary acknowledgment of the foundation Kelly laid to enable this (especially if BK recruits figure prominently in the efforts). If Freeman struggles, it will reinforce just how difficult this job is and put Kelly’s performance again in a favorable light as the only successful coach in a litany of post-Holtz failures.

Of course, the other variable is how the Massachusetts native performs in Baton Rouge. If Kelly can become the 4th straight LSU coach to win a national championship, he solidifies his standing as one of the best coaches of this era. But if he struggles to win as consistently in the SEC – and especially if there’s an implosion – it will further emphasize his relative limitations