Notre Dame has gone 22-4 over the last two seasons, a level of success that Irish fans haven’t seen in a long time. That’s very good, obviously, Clemson freight train status aside, and raises a couple of interesting questions:

  • How long, exactly, is a long time?
  • Where does this two-year stretch stand in the post-World War II era?
  • Where could a three-year stretch stand if 2019 goes the way we think it can?

I chose the post-World War II era for this analysis because the landscape was dramatically different pre-war; the game was different, players moved between schools quite frequently, talent on the field and on the sidelines was far more concentrated, etc. Even the immediate post-war period was very different, as many of those factors still existed plus you had near-physical-prime war veterans suiting up for many teams. But we have to start somewhere, and that makes for a very clean line of demarcation.

The TL,DR version of this article is that Notre Dame has the chance to build the kind of program momentum that it has only experienced a handful of times in the last 70-plus years. Go ahead and read that again, it’s worth the effort. As for the longer version…

Two-Year Windows

Superlatives

2017-18’s 22-4 is Notre Dame’s third-best back-to-back record since since Ara Parseghian left; the .846 win percentage trails only Lou Holtz’s 1988-89 run (.960, 24-1) and 1992-93 run (.896, 21-2-1) over that stretch. We need to point out here that Holtz’s 1988-89 run included a national title and his 1992-93 run included a shoulda-been national title, which of course makes it clearly qualitatively better. We’re not here to argue equivalency for 2017-18. Just, it’s been a while. [looks wistfully out window]

Holtz’s 24 wins in 1988-89 are the most ever by Notre Dame in consecutive seasons. If Kelly breaks that record this year, which would take 13+ wins, it almost assuredly would mean the Irish had secured at least a championship game berth. Can’t fault a guy for dreaming, right? Kelly’s 22 wins in 2017-18 are already the second most in school history. If the Irish go 10-3 or better in 2019, Kelly will become the only coach in school history with multiple 22-win two-year windows (2017-18 and 2018-19). And yes, all of this comes with the important caveat that seasons include more games than they used to. Still, expect to see that on the ESPN ticker if and when a tenth 2019 win goes in the books.

In the 1992 and 1993 seasons, Lou Holtz won 21 games. It was the third time in his first seven Irish seasons that he had a 20-win two-year window. Since then, in an era spanning three years of Holtz, five years of Bob Davie, three years of Ty Willingham, five years of Charlie Weis, and nine years of Brian Kelly, Notre Dame has logged just three 20-win two-year windows. All three belong to Kelly (2011-12, 2012-13, and 2017-18). With 2018’s 12 wins in the books, there’s an excellent chance he’ll add a fourth such window this season.

Records

Here are Notre Dame’s post-war coaches ranked by their best two-year window:

  • Frank Leahy – .975, 19-0-1, 1948-49
  • Lou Holtz – .960, 24-1, 1988-89
  • Ara Parseghian – .913, 21-1, 1973-74
  • Terry Brennan – .850, 17-3, 1954-55
  • Brian Kelly – .846, 22-4, 2017-18
  • Dan Devine – .833, 20-4, 1976-77/1977-78
  • Charlie Weis – .760, 19-6, 2005-06
  • Bob Davie – .640, 16-9, 1997-98
  • Ty Willingham – .600, 15-10, 2002-03
  • Gerry Faust – .587, 13-9-1, 1982-83
  • Joe Kuharich – .500, 10-10, 1962-63
  • Hugh Devore – N/A (coached one season between Kuharich and Parseghian)

Clearly, sustained elite success has been a serious challenge for Notre Dame for the last 45 years. Kelly can jump Brennan in this list with a record of 11-2 or better this season.

Three-Year Windows

An Irish coach has posted a three-year window of his own making that was .800 or better 18 times in the post-war era; all 18 of those belong to Leahy (four times), Parseghian (eight!), Devine (two), and Holtz (four). If Notre Dame manages a record of 9-4 or better in 2019, Kelly will join that list. The Irish would also register double-digit wins in three consecutive seasons for just the second time in school history; Holtz’s 1991-93 stretch was the other (10-3, 10-1-1, 11-1).

A 2019 record of 8-5 or better would allow Kelly to join Holtz as the only coaches in Notre Dame history to register a 30-win three-year window. Kelly is already the fourth Notre Dame coach to log a 29-win three-year window; he has done it twice, in 2011-13 and 2012-14. Parseghian has one such window, Devine has one, and Holtz has five. That all says as much about season length as anything else, of course, but it’s still notable.

Here are Notre Dame’s post-war coaches ranked by their best three-year windows:

  • Leahy – .983, 1947-49 (28-0-1)
  • Holtz – .892, 1988-90 (33-4)
  • Parseghian – .867, 1964-66 (25-3-2)
  • Devine – .806, 1976-78 (29-7)
  • Kelly – .744, 2011-13 (29-10)/2012-14 (29-10)
  • Davie – .639, 1998-00 (23-13)
  • Brennan – .633, 1954-56 (19-11)
  • Weis – .595, 2005-07 (22-15)
  • Faust – .586, 1982-84 (20-14-1)
  • Willingham – .568, 2002-2004 (21-16)
  • Kuharich – .400, 1959-61 (12-18)/1960-62 (12-18)
  • Devore – N/A

Poor Joe is having a rough time of it in this article… Barring utter catastrophe Kelly will improve here this season, as anything above 7-6 will put 2017-19’s number above .744. To pass Devine’s best, Kelly would have to go at least 10-3, which would make 2017-19’s win percentage .821; that seems eminently achievable. A repeat of 12-1 would raise it to .872, just passing Parseghian’s best, albeit with the very notable lack of a national title. If we may be permitted to dream for a moment, a national title season would likely raise it either to .875 (13-1) or .900 (14-0). Probably a 0.1% chance of that happening (maybe), but we can still talk about it now, so…

Post-War Coaching Records

Coach W L T Win %
Leahy 63 8 6 0.857
Parseghian 95 17 4 0.836
Holtz 100 30 2 0.765
Devine 53 16 1 0.764
Kelly 81 35 0 0.698
Brennan 32 18 0 0.640
Davie 35 25 0 0.583
Willingham 21 16 0 0.568
Weis 35 27 0 0.565
Kuharich 17 23 0 0.425
Devore 2 7 0 0.222

Leahy and Parseghian are untouchable by Kelly or, realistically, anyone else in the scholarship limit era. Holtz and Devine are very likely untouchable by Kelly; he would need a seven-year string of 11-win seasons to pass them. I doubt Kelly will be here for seven more years, first of all, and even if he is 77 wins is an awfully high bar. Not totally impossible, though. So the most likely outcome of his tenure at Notre Dame is that he’ll stay where he has always resided: squarely between the legends and the washouts. A mugwump, as they used to say. If he somehow manages to add a title, of course, Irish fans would be more than willing to push him over to the mug side. Well, most them would be, anyway…